The Normal Probability

Distribution

Lecture 3

McGraw-Hill/Irwin ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2008

 GOALS

 List the characteristics of the normal probability distribution.

 Define and calculate z values.
 Determine the probability an observation is between two points
on a normal probability distribution.
 Determine the probability an observation is above (or below) a
point on a normal probability distribution.

2
3
 Continuous Random Variables

 A continuous random variable

 has an “uncountable infinite” number of values
 can assume any value in the interval

A continuous random variable

• For example survey student’s heights.
X: height of randomly selected student
Height is an example of a continuous random
variable.

4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
 Characteristics of a Normal
Probability Distribution
 It is bell-shaped and has a single peak at the center of the distribution.
 The arithmetic mean, median, and mode are equal
 The total area under the curve is 1.00; half the area under the normal curve is to the right of this center point and the other half to the left of it.
 It is symmetrical about the mean.
 It is asymptotic: The curve gets closer and closer to the X-axis but never actually touches it. To put it another way, the tails of the curve extend indefinitely in both
directions.
 The location of a normal distribution is determined by the mean,, the dispersion or spread of the distribution is determined by the standard deviation,σ .

15
 The Normal Distribution - Graphically

16
 The Normal Distribution - Families

17
18
19
 Standard Normal Distribution

20
 The Standard Normal Probability
Distribution
 The standard normal distribution is a normal distribution with a mean of 0 and a standard
deviation of 1.
 It is also called the z distribution.
 A z-value is the distance between a selected value, designated X, and the population
mean , divided by the population standard deviation, σ.
 The formula is:

21
22
23
24
 How to read the standard normal
tables

25
26
27
28
29
30
 Sampling and
Sampling Distribution

31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
 Central Limit
Theorem

40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
 Estimation and Confidence
Intervals

McGraw-Hill/Irwin ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2008

 GOALS

 Define a point estimate.

 Define level of confidence.
 Construct a confidence interval for the population
mean when the population standard deviation is
known.
 Construct a confidence interval for a population
mean when the population standard deviation is
unknown.
 Construct a confidence interval for a population
proportion.
 Determine the sample size for attribute and variable
sampling.

61
 Point and Interval Estimates

 A point estimate is the statistic, computed from sample information, which is used
to estimate the population parameter.
 A confidence interval estimate is a range of values constructed from sample data
so that the population parameter is likely to occur within that range at a specified
probability. The specified probability is called the level of confidence.

62
63
64
65
66
 Interval Estimates - Interpretation

For a 95% confidence interval about 95% of the similarly constructed

intervals will contain the parameter being estimated. Also 95% of
the sample means for a specified sample size will lie within 1.96
standard deviations of the hypothesized population

67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
 Characteristics of the t-distribution

1. It is, like the z distribution, a continuous distribution.

2. It is, like the z distribution, bell-shaped and
symmetrical.
3. There is not one t distribution, but rather a family of t
distributions. All t distributions have a mean of 0, but
their standard deviations differ according to the
sample size, n.
4. The t distribution is more spread out and flatter at the
center than the standard normal distribution As the
sample size increases, however, the t distribution
approaches the standard normal distribution,

81
 Comparing the z and t Distributions
when n is small

82
 Confidence Interval Estimates for the
Mean

Use Z-distribution Use t-distribution

If the population If the population
standard deviation standard deviation
is known or the is unknown and the
sample is greater sample is less than
than 30. 30.

83
 When to Use the z or t Distribution for
Confidence Interval Computation

84
 Confidence Interval for a Population
Proportion

The confidence interval for a

population proportion is estimated
by:

p(1  p)
p  z / 2
n

85
 Confidence Interval for a Population
Proportion- Example

The union representing the Bottle

Blowers of America (BBA) is First, compute the sample proportion :
considering a proposal to merge x 1,600
with the Teamsters Union. p   0.80
n 2000
According to BBA union bylaws,
at least three-fourths of the union
membership must approve any Compute the 95% C.I.
merger. A random sample of p (1  p )
2,000 current BBA members C.I.  p  z / 2
n
reveals 1,600 plan to vote for the
merger proposal. What is the .80(1  .80)
 0.80  1.96  .80  .018
estimate of the population 2,000
proportion?  (0.782,0.818)
Develop a 95 percent confidence
interval for the population Conclude : The merger proposal will likely pass
proportion. Basing your decision
on this sample information, can because the interval estimate includes values greater
you conclude that the necessary than 75 percent of the union membership.
proportion of BBA members favor
the merger? Why?

86
 Confidence Interval Formulas for Estimating Means
and Proportions with Finite Population Correction

C.I. for the Mean () C.I. for the Mean ()

 N n s N n
X z X t
n N 1 n N 1

C.I. for the Proportion ()

p (1  p ) N n
pz
n N 1
87