PROBABILIT

Y
CONTENT
01 PROBABILITY

02 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

03 MACROSTATES AND MICROSTATES

04 THERMODYNAMIC
PROBABILITY
PROBABILI
Probability is the likelihood of something

TY
happening in the future. It is expressed as a
number between zero (can never happen) to 1 (will
always happen). It can be expressed as a fraction,
a decimal, a percent

CLASSICAL PROBABILITY :-

P(E)= No: of favourable outcomes

Total no of outcomes

Statistical or Empirical Probability :-

P(E)= # of times event E occur s
total # of observed occurrences
PROBABILI
TY • Subjective Probability
subjective probability is coming from person’s
judgment or experience.

For example:
• Probability of landing on “head” when tossing
a coin
• Probability of winning a lottery
 COMMON TERMS
• Sample Space:
• The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment, denoted as ( S ).
• Event:
• Any subset of the sample space, representing a particular outcome or a
combination of outcomes.
- Random Experiment :
- A random experiment is a process or procedure that results in one of several
possible outcomes , where the outcome cannot be predicted with certainty
beforehand
• Conditional Probability:
The probability of an event occurring given that another event has already
occurred, denoted as ( P(A|B) ), where ( A ) and ( B ) are events.
• Random Variable:
• A variable that takes on different values according to the outcomes of a
random experiment
 PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
Probability Distribution : It is a listing of the probabilities of all the
possible outcomes that could occur if the experiment was done.

It can be described as:-

Number 1 Number 2 Number 3

A diagram A table A mathematical formula

(Probability Tree)
 PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
• Discrete Distrib utio n: Ran dom Variable can take on ly
limited n umber o f values.
Ex : No. o f heads in two tosses.
• C o n tinuo us Distrib ution: R an dom Variable can take any
v alu e.
Ex : Heig ht of stud ents in th e class.
 MACROSTATE
AND
MICROSTATE
MAC R OS TATE
• A macrostate is defi ned by the m acroscopic properties of
a system , such as t em perature, pressure, and volum e.
Macrost at es are param et ers that help you quantitatively
m easure the propert i es of Matter. It is a collection of
m icrost at e

MIC R OS TATE
• The dist inct arrangem ent of the particles of a system is
called it s m icrost at e.In statistical m echanics, a
CUSTOMERS
m icrost at e i s a speci fi c configuration of a system that
descri bes the preci se positions and m om enta of all the
individual parti cl es or com ponents that make up the
system
 UNDERSTANDING MACROSTATES
AND MICROSTATES WITH A TOSS
Let us consider flip p in g o f a co in Fo u r
times.
OF COIN
The possible o u tco mes are:
0 heads, 4 tails
1 head, 3 tails
2 heads, 2 tail

80%
3 heads, 1 tails
4 heads, 0 tails
If n is the numb er o f trials th an (n +1 ) is
the number of p o ssib le ou tco mes All th ese
possible outco mes are Macro states.
▪ For each of the corresponding Macrostates the no of ways in which that
event can occur is given as:
▪ (0 heads, 4 tails) =>TTTT==1
▪ (1 head , 3 tails) => HTTT, THTT, TTHT, TTTH==4
▪ (2 heads, 2 tails) =>HHTT, TTHH, THTH, HTHT, HTTH, THHT==6
▪ (3 heads, 1 tails) =>THHH,HHHT,HHTH,HTHH==4
▪ (4 heads, 1 tail) =>HHHH==1
▪ Each configuration corresponding to the macrostate is called the
MICROSTATE.
▪ And the total no of microstates corresponding to each MACROSTATE gives
us the THERMODYNAMIC PROBABILITY of the system.
 THERMODYNAMIC
PROBABILITY
▪ It is the number of total microstates for a given Macrostate. Thermodynamic
probability refers to the likelihood of a specific state occurring within a
thermodynamic system, based on the number of ways that state can be achieved.
It is denoted by W or (Ω).
▪ For example:
▪ number of particles=n
▪ number of compartment (or cells)=2
▪ number of particles in the compartment no. 1=r
▪ and the remaining (n-r) are in compartment no. 2,
▪ then the no. of microstates in a macrostate (r, n-r or thermodynamic
probability) is given by
▪ The probability of each microstate is equally probable.
So that most probable macrostate will be one having the highest number of
microstate.
▪ P(macro) =Total no of microstate in macrostate

…………………………………………………………………………..
Total number of microstate in system

▪ If we consider the example of tossing a coin four times then the total no of
microstate can be easily calculated by 2^n. Here n=4, so total microstate is 16.
 STRATEGIES
MACROSTATES THERMODYNAMIC P(MACRO)=W/16
PROBABILITY

0 HEADS, 4 TAILS 1 0.0625

1 HEADS, 3 TAILS 4 0.25
2 HEADS, 2 TAILS 6 0.375
3 HEADS, 1 TAILS 4 0.25
4 HEADS, 0 TAILS 1 0.625

TOTAL=16 TOTAL= 1
PLOT PROBABILITY OF VARIOUS MICROSTATES IN
COIN TOSSING V/S NO. OF HEADS WITH 2,4,8,16,50
COINS.

Drew
Holloway
PLOT PROBABILITY OF VARIOUS MICROSTATES IN
COIN TOSSING V/S NO. OF HEADS WITH 2,4,8,16,50
COINS.

Drew
Holloway
PLOT BAR GRAPH FOR PROBABILITY VS MAGNETIC
MOMENT FOR 4,5,10,20 SPIN PARTICLE.

Drew
Holloway
PLOT BAR GRAPH FOR PROBABILITY VS MAGNETIC
MOMENT FOR 4,5,10,20 SPIN PARTICLE.
THANK YOU