SESSION 4

Theory of
Change
 SESSION
OBJECTIVES

Develop a Theory of Change for the CBJIP based on

the situation analysis and the causality analysis.
 OBJECTIVE of WORKSHOP: Draft CBJIP

THE ROAD TOWARDS THE WORKSHOP OBJECTIVE

SITUATION RESULTS-
CAUSALITY THEORY OF CHANGE
ANALYSIS OF BASED
ANALYSIS CHANGE STRATEGIES
CICL/CAR FRAMEWORK
WHAT IS
Theory of Change?
BLUEPRINT is what
you need before
building a house.
 What is THEORY OF CHANGE (TOC) ?
THEORY OF CHANGE – is the process of developing a plan or a design to solve a social
problem and achieve a desired end-result.

TOC is a tool used to help identify the current situation and the ideal desired situation
and what needs to be done to move from one situation to another.

THEORY OF CHANGE is like telling a story of how the problem of CICL could be solved
by setting up certain conditions in order to reach the long-term goal for them.

The TOC gives you an idea of what needs to be done from the current situation of
CICL in the Barangay towards an ideal situation where there will be no more CICL.
The ways towards Change
Desired
CHANGE
Pangarap:
e”? No CICL
an g
Ch
r y of
h eo
“T

Problem
on
CICL/CAR

26/04/2024
A TOC looks like the diagram
Iin the next slide.

It is like a story that you read but

starting from the end (the
bottom).
 Goal (DREAM): “By the end of 2024, there will be no CICL. The rights
of all children are fulfilled.

Outcome Statement 3: The

Outcome Statement 1: Families
are caring, protective of children
and provide for their needs.
Outcome Statement 2: The community
Barangay has a CBJIP integrated
has preventive/protective services for
in the Brgy. Devt. Plan and is
children and opportunities for them for
play and recreation. implemented & monitored well.

Output 1 - Parents use Output 1 – Service Output 1 - Ordinances

positive discipline to providers are aware of protecting children are
raise their children CRC and RA 9344 passed.

Output 2 - Parents are Output 2 – Soc. Workers Output 2 - Laws on

aware of child rights
Output 3 - Children
engage in legal jobs to
help their parents
Output 4 - Children’s
basic needs are fully
met at home.
and PNP are trained on children are fully
proper handling of CICL. implemented.
Output 3 -There are Output 3 - % of IRA
spaces activities for allocation for children
children to play & recreate. are planned and used.
Output 4 - Education Output 4 - Brgy Devt
and health services are Plan for Children
available for children. developed/implemented.

Statement of the Problem: “The number of CICL and CAR in Barangay ___________ is
increasing and their rights are not respected and fufilled.
Note:
 Just like the process of building a house, the process of developing
a TOC is done step by step.

 Developing a TOC is done by a discussion group and not by an

individual person. It normally takes time to do it.

 In the process of developing the TOC, statements are written on

meta cards with permanent markers, and are posted on a brown
paper using masking tapes.
Now, let’s develop a TOC for your CBJIP,
STEP by STEP.
 Write the statement of the problem in long metacard using a permanent marker
STEP 0 and post it at the bottom of the brown paper like the diagram the below:

Statement of the Problem:“The number of CICL in Barangay _________

increased from 40 in 2019 to 75 in 2020.”
STEP 1 FORMULATE the long-term goal of the CBJIP. The long-term goal is what
your program desires to achieve by the end of the 3 to 5 year-period.
Sometimes it is referred to as the IMPACT RESULT. The IMPACT RESULT is
the end-result of your CBJIP.
For example:

If your summary statement of the problem is: “The number of CICL in

Barangay Pag-asa increased from 40 in 2019 to 75 in 2020.”

Your goal statement might be:

“The number of CICL in Barangay Pag-asa decreased by 50 percent, that is,
from 75 CICL in 2020 to 38 CICL in 2023.”
Goal Statement: “Sa katapusan ng 2024, wala ng batang lumalabag sa batas sa Barangay
Zone 5.”

Statement of the Problem:“Sa Barangay Zone 5, dumarami ang mga batang

lumalabag sa batas at ang kanilang mga Karapatan ay nilalabag..”
STEP 2 IDENTIFY the pre-conditions that are necessary to achieve your
goal. These pre-conditions are referred to as outcomes.

What are outcomes?

If goals are referred to as the impact results or end-results; pre-conditions

are referred to as outcome results or intermediate results.

Outcome results are intermediate results describing the ideal conditions in

the family side, community side, and barangay side that you need to set-up.
Example of Outcome Statements – Refer to your causality analysis…
Levels of Some of the reasons or causes might be the
Analysis following:
1. Family Side  Parents physically abuse their children that drive
them away from their houses.
 Parents are not aware of child rights. Outcome Statement 1:
 Children steal money to help their poor parents The family is caring and
 Children’s basic needs are not met at home. protective of children and
 Children lack skills to resist vices, bad influence of
provide for their needs.
peers, etc.

2. Community  Children are influenced by bad peers in the

Side Barangay. Outcome Statement 2: The
 There is no protocol in management of CICL and community has preventive
CAR and protective services for
 There limited opportunities in the community for children and provide
play and recreation.
opportunities for play and
 Services for children are insufficient
recreation.
Example of Outcome Statements
Levels of Some of the reasons or causes might be the
Analysis following:
 The Barangay has no ordinance protecting
children.
3. Barangay  Laws on children are not implemented in the Outcome Statement 3:
(LGU) Side Barangay The Barangay has funded
 The are no facilities for children in the Barangay. CBJIP integrated in the
 The 1% mandatory allocation for children is not
being used properly. Barangay Development
The Barangay has no Development Plan for Plan and that is

Children. implemented and
monitored.
 Goal Statement: “Sa katapusan ng 2024, wala ng batang lumalabag sa
batas sa Barangay Zone 5.”

Outcome Statement 2 - The

Outcome Statement 1: Outcome Statement 3: The Barangay
community has preventive and
The family is caring and protective has funded CBJIP integrated in the
protective services for children
of children and provide for their Barangay Development Plan and that
and provide opportunities for
needs. is implemented and monitored.
play and recreation.

Statement of the Problem:“Sa Barangay Zone 5, dumarami ang mga batang

lumalabag sa batas at ang kanilang mga Karapatan ay nilalabag..”
 Goal Statement: “Sa katapusan ng 2024, wala ng batang lumalabag sa
batas sa Barangay Zone 5.”

Outcome Statement 1: Outcome Statement 2: Outcome Statement 3:

\

Statement of the Problem:“The number of CICL in Barangay Pag-asa

increased from 40 in 2019 to 75 in 2020.”
CHECK the logic of this first level of the TOC by using the IF and THEN
statement, as follows:

 IF The family is caring and protective of children and provide for their
needs.
 IF The community has preventive and protective services for children
and provide opportunities for play and recreation
 IF The Barangay has funded CBJIP integrated in the Barangay
Development Plan and that is implemented and monitored.

 THEN “The number of CICL in Barangay Pag-asa will decrease by 50

percent, that is, from 75 CICL in 2020 to 38 CICL in 2023.”
STEP 3

IDENTIFY another set of pre-conditions that are necessary to achieve the

Outcome statements. This next set of pre-conditions are referred to as
OUTPUTS.

What are outputs?

OUTPUTS are the necessary pre-conditions needed to make the expected
OUTCOMES happen at the family, community, and Barangay sides.

Remember, outputs are results statements and not activities.

Example of Output Statements
Level Outcome Statements Output Statements
Family Outcome Statement 1: The family is  Parents are aware of child rights
caring and protective of children and  Parents use positive reinforcement to discipline their children and
provide for their needs. not physical punishment.
 Parents have the knowledge and skills to teach children how to
resist peer pressure and temptation to commit wrongdoings.
 Parents have the means to provide for the basic needs of children.

Community Outcome Statement 2: The
community has preventive and
protective services for children and
provide opportunities for play and
recreation.
 Playgrounds and play spaces constructed for children and youth.
 Barangay Health Center/Stations have completed health services
for children.
 There are Day Care Centers catering to children from remote
areas.

Barangay Outcome Statement 3: The Barangay  BCPC is fully functional

has funded CBJIP integrated in the  CBJIP is developed by the BPMT
Barangay Development Plan and that  Barangay Ordinance passed approving the CBJIP
is implemented and monitored.  Barangay Ordinances protecting children have passed
 Now CHECK the logic again using the IF and THEN statement
below. Let’s take Outcome Statement 1, as an example:

IF parents are aware of child rights OUTPUTS

IF parents use positive reinforcement to discipline their children
and not physical punishment.
IF parents have the knowledge and skills to teach children how to
resist peer pressure and temptation to commit wrongdoings.
IF Parents have the means to provide for the basic needs of
children

THEN the family will become caring and protective of children and
OUTCOME
provide for their needs.
 Goal Statement: ““Sa katapusan ng 2024, wala ng batang lumalabag sa batas sa
Barangay Zone 5.”

Outcome Statement 3: The

Outcome Statement 1: Families
are caring, protective of children
and provide for their needs.
Outcome Statement 2: The community
Barangay has a CBJIP integrated
has preventive/protective services for
in the Brgy. Devt. Plan and is
children and opportunities for them for
play and recreation. implemented & monitored well.

Output 1 - Parents use Output 1 – Service Output 1 - Ordinances

positive discipline to providers are aware of protecting children are
raise their children CRC and RA 9344 passed.

Output 2 - Parents are Output 2 – Soc. Workers Output 2 - Laws on

aware of child rights
Output 3 - Children
engage in legal jobs to
help their parents
Output 4 - Children’s
basic needs are fully
met at home.
and PNP are trained on children are fully
proper handling of CICL. implemented.
Output 3 -There are Output 3 - % of IRA
spaces activities for allocation for children
children to play & recreate. are planned and used.
Output 4 - Education Output 4 - Brgy Devt
and health services are Plan for Children
available for children. developed/implemented.

Statement of the Problem: “Sa Barangay Zone 5, dumarami ang mga batang lumalabag sa
batas at ang kanilang mga Karapatan ay nilalabag.”
 Goal Statement: “By the end of 2023, the number of CICL in
________________ decreased by 100%.” .

Outcome Statement 3: The

Outcome Statement 1: Families
are caring, protective of children
and provide for their needs.
Outcome Statement 2: The community
Barangay has a CBJIP integrated
has preventive/protective services for
in the Brgy. Devt. Plan and is
children and opportunities for them for
play and recreation. implemented & monitored well.

Output 1 – Output 1 - Output 1 -

Output 2 - Output 2 -
Output 2 -.

Output 3 -
Output 3 - Output 3 -

Output 4 - Output 4 - Output 4 -

Statement of the Problem: “The number of CICL in ___________ increased from

40 in 2019 to 75 in 2020“.
STEP 4 IDENTIFY the assumptions and risks that can
positively or negatively affect your TOC.
are conditions or factors Examples of Assumptions:
that must be in place or • The BCPC is active and functional
present to achieve the • The Barangay Chair is supportive
• Adequate funding is available
goal of your CBJIP. • Political commitment exists
ASSUMPTION
S

Are events or occurrences Examples of Risks:

that can negatively affect
your CBJIP and the
achievement of your goal.
RISKS
• In fighting within the Barangay
Council
• Uncooperative/idifferent
community residents
• Tribal wars
• Natural Calamities
Assumptions

Risks
 STEP 5

ORGANIZE the
statement of
problem, goal
statement, the
outcomes, the
outputs, as well as
the assumptions
and risks, following
the diagram.

Assumptions and Risks:

____________________________________________________
Note: You may copy here the examples above.
CONGRATULATIONS!
!!

You have completed your

TOC for your CBJIP.
Proceed to the next
Session.