Lesson 14

Estimation of
Parameters and
Population
Proportion
Statistics and Probability
Core Subject – Senior High School
 At the end of the lesson, you should be able to do the following:

1. Identify the length of a

confidence interval
Learning
(M11/12SP-IIIj-1).
Competencies
2. Compute for the length of a
confidence interval
(M11/12SP-IIIj-2).

2
 Estimator
1 a rule, typically written as a
formula, that tells us how to
calculate an estimate based on
information in the sample data

Estimation Example:
of
Parameter Two types of estimator are the point
estimator and the interval estimator.
s
3
 Point Estimator
1
2 used to estimate a population
parameter using a single
number. The resulting number is
called a point estimate.
Point A point estimator of the population mean is
Estimator the sample mean . The point estimator is
unbiased with a standard error given by
for the
Population where is the population standard deviation
Mean and is the sample size.
4
 Example: A random sample of weights in
pounds of students in a certain high school
are shown below.
123 92 132 103 110 98
130 90 111 110 128 110
110 120 110 95 96 113
92 121 99 99 90 115
Point 93 121 98 129 121 99
Estimator The best point estimator of the population
for the mean is the sample mean .
Population Therefore, a point estimate of the average
Mean weight of students in a certain high school is
lbs.
5
 Example: Suppose the population
standard deviation is lbs.

Thus, the standard error of the point

Point estimate is lbs.
Estimator
for the
Population
Mean
6
 Margin of Error (or Error of Estimation)
difference between a point estimate and the
actual value of the parameter at a given
confidence level. To compute for the margin of
error, we multiply the critical value of the
confidence level by the standard error.
Confidence
Level
80% 0.20 0.10 1.2816
Margin of
Error
97% 0.03 0.015 2.17

7
 Confidence Level
the probability that an interval estimate
contains the true population parameter. A
confidence level is denoted by , where is called
the significance level.

Confidence
Level
80% 0.20 0.10 1.2816
Confidenc
e Level
97% 0.03 0.015 2.17

8
 Example:
The margin of error of a point estimate of
the population mean is given by

where is the population standard deviation

and is the sample size. This means that
there is a probability that the difference
Margin of between the point estimate and population
Error mean is .

9
 Example: A sample of temperatures (in )
of patients in a clinic is shown below.

a. What is the best point estimate of the

Point population mean temperature?
Estimator b. What is the standard error if = 2?
for the c. Find the margin of error of the point
estimate of the population mean.
Population
Mean
10
 Example: A sample of temperatures (in )
of patients in a clinic is shown below.

a. What is the best point estimate of the

Point population mean temperature?
Estimator The best point estimator of the
for the population mean is the sample mean.
Population
Mean
11
 Example: A sample of temperatures (in )
of patients in a clinic is shown below.

b. What is the standard error if = 2?

Point
Estimator
for the
Population
Mean
12
 Example: A sample of temperatures (in )
of patients in a clinic is shown below.

c. Find the margin of error of the point

Point estimate of the population mean.
Estimator
for the
Population
Mean
13
 Interval Estimator
used to estimate a population parameter
using a range of values. The range of values
is called an interval estimate.
An interval estimator of the population mean has
endpoints given by

where is the sample mean, is the significance level,

is the -value corresponding to the area on the right
Interval tail of the standard normal distribution, is the
Estimator population standard deviation, and is the sample
size. We call the resulting interval estimate a
confidence interval.

14
 Example:
A random sample of weights in pounds of
students in a certain high school are shown
below. Suppose the population standard
deviation is lbs. Construct a confidence
interval for the population mean.
123 92 132 103 110 98
130 90 111 110 128 110
Interval
110 120 110 95 96 113
Estimator
92 121 99 99 90 115
93 121 98 129 121 99
15
 Example:
A random sample of weights in pounds of students in a certain
high school are shown below. Suppose the population standard
deviation is lbs. Construct a confidence interval for the
population mean.
123 92 132 103 110 98
130 90 111 110 128 110
110 120 110 95 96 113
92 121 99 99 90 115
93 121 98 129 121 99

Solve for the sample mean.

Interval
Estimator

16
 Example:
A random sample of weights in pounds of students in a certain
high school are shown below. Suppose the population standard
deviation is lbs. Construct a confidence interval for the
population mean.
123 92 132 103 110 98
130 90 111 110 128 110
110 120 110 95 96 113
92 121 99 99 90 115
93 121 98 129 121 99

Since we need to use a confidence level, .

Substitute the values into the formula.
Interval
Estimator

17
 Example:
A random sample of weights in pounds of students in a certain
high school are shown below. Suppose the population standard
deviation is lbs. Construct a confidence interval for the
population mean.
123 92 132 103 110 98
130 90 111 110 128 110
110 120 110 95 96 113
92 121 99 99 90 115
93 121 98 129 121 99

Thus, we have the following endpoints of

the confidence interval.
Interval
Estimator

18
 Example:
A random sample of weights in pounds of students in a certain
high school are shown below. Suppose the population standard
deviation is lbs. Construct a confidence interval for the
population mean.
123 92 132 103 110 98
130 90 111 110 128 110
110 120 110 95 96 113
92 121 99 99 90 115
93 121 98 129 121 99

Interval
Estimator Therefore, a confidence interval for the
mean weight in pounds of students in a
certain high school is .
19
 Approximation to Normal Distribution
If a random sample of observations is selected
from a population (any population), and
observations among these belong to the
outcome of interest, then when is sufficiently
large, the sampling distribution of the sample
proportion will approximate a normal
distribution. The sample size is sufficiently
Estimation large when and .
of Example:
Suppose and and Then,
Population
Proportion
20
 Point Estimate of Population
Proportion
If we want to estimate the population
proportion , we can use the sample proportion,
denoted by (read as p hat), as a best point
estimate.
The sample proportion is calculated by
getting the ratio of the favorable response
Estimation within the sample to the sample size. In
of symbols, the sample proportion is
Population calculated as
Proportion
21
 Point Estimate of Population
Proportion
Example:
From a sample of 100 students,
67 of them likes Mathematics.
Estimation The sample proportion in this
of example is or . Thus, it is
Population estimated that of the students
Proportion like Mathematics.
22
 Confidence Interval Estimator
for a Population Proportion
The formula for the confidence interval
estimator for a population proportion is given
by

Estimation
where is the sample proportion, is the
of complement of ), is the sample size, and refers
Population to the critical value corresponding to the level
Proportion of confidence.

23
 Important Notes:
a. Before constructing a confidence interval estimate
for the population proportion, it is a must to check
whether the variables involved satisfies both and.
This is to verify that the sampling distribution of the
sample proportion is approximately normal. If
these conditions are not met, the formula for the
Estimation confidence interval estimator cannot be used.
b. In some cases, is not given and cannot be solved.
of We may use the default .
Population c. For any confidence interval for the population

Proportion proportion, we will use one more than the decimal

place of the point estimate to solve for the margin
of error.
24
 Example: Verify if the confidence interval
estimator for the population proportion can
be used in this example:
From a sample of 100 students, 67 of
them likes Mathematics. The sample
proportion in this example is or .
Estimation We can check whether we can use the
of confidence interval estimator for the
Population population proportion by verifying and .
Proportion
25
 Example: Verify if the confidence interval estimator for
the population proportion can be used in this example:
From a sample of 100 students, 67 of them likes
Mathematics. The sample proportion in this example is
or .

Estimation
of
Population
Proportion Since both inequalities are true, we may use
the confidence interval estimator for the
population proportion.
26
 Example: Construct the confidence
interval for the population
proportion for a sample size of and
.
1. Solve for .

Estimation
of
Population
Proportion
27
 Example: Construct the confidence
interval for the population proportion
for a sample size of and
.
2. Verify if the confidence interval
estimator can be used.
Estimation Substitute the values of , and to
check if
of and .
Population (50)(0.30) and (50)(0.70)
Proportion 15 and 35
28
 Example: Construct the confidence
interval for the population proportion
for a sample size of and
.
3. Construct the confidence interval.
To construct the 98% confidence
Estimation interval for the population
proportion , we will use and
of substitute these values, together
Population with the other values, to the
Proportion formula for the confidence
interval.
29
 Example: Construct the confidence
interval for the population proportion
for a sample size of and
.
3.

Estimation
of
Population
Proportion
30
 Example: Construct the confidence
interval for the population proportion
for a sample size of and
.
Therefore, the confidence interval for
the population proportion is or .
Estimation With confidence, we can say that the
population proportion lies between
of and .
Population
Proportion
31
 Example 1: A survey of 50 working
individuals in a company reveals that 26 of
them go to the gym regularly. Construct the
99% confidence interval estimate for the
proportion of all working individuals who go
to
1. the gym
Solve forregularly.
the sample proportion .
Substitute and to the formula for .
Let’s try it!

32
 Example 1: A survey of 50 working
individuals in a company reveals that 26 of
them go to the gym regularly. Construct the
99% confidence interval estimate for the
proportion of all working individuals who go
to the gym regularly.
2. Solve for by computing the
Let’s try it! complement of .

33
 Example 1: A survey of 50 working
individuals in a company reveals that 26 of
them go to the gym regularly. Construct the
99% confidence interval estimate for the
proportion of all working individuals who go
to the gym regularly.
3. Verify if the confidence interval
estimator can be used.
Let’s try it!
Substitute the values of , , and to check
if and .

34
 Example 1: A survey of 50 working
individuals in a company reveals that 26 of
them go to the gym regularly. Construct the
99% confidence interval estimate for the
proportion of all working individuals who go
to the gym regularly.
4. Construct the confidence interval.
Let’s try it! To construct the confidence interval for
the population proportion , we will use
and substitute these values, together with
the other values, to the formula for the
confidence interval.

35
 Example 1: A survey of 50 working
individuals in a company reveals that 26 of
them go to the gym regularly. Construct the
99% confidence interval estimate for the
proportion of all working individuals who go

√
to the gym regularly.

Let’s try it! ^𝑞

𝑝 ^
^ ± 𝑍𝛼
𝑝
2 𝑛
36
 Example 1: A survey of 50 working
individuals in a company reveals that 26 of
them go to the gym regularly. Construct the
99% confidence interval estimate for the
proportion of all working individuals who go
to the gym regularly.

Let’s try it! Therefore, the confidence interval for the

population proportion is or .
With confidence, we can say that the
proportion of working individuals who go to
the gym regularly is between and .

37
 Answer any two items.
1. A research team conducted a survey on employed
adults. Ninety of them said they use their car to
travel to work. Based on this sample, construct the
confidence interval estimate for the population
proportion of employed adults who use their car to
travel to work.
2. The average number of attacks of randomly
selected volleyball players in the preliminary round
Learning of a league is . The population standard deviation is
attacks. Find the margin of error of the point
Activity estimate of the population mean.
3. The average number of attacks of randomly
Sheet #2 selected volleyball players in the preliminary round
of a league is . It is estimated that the population
standard deviation is . Construct the confidence
interval for the population mean.
38
END OF
LESSON 14

Thank you
for your participation!

39