Chapter 6

Confidence Intervals

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 Chapter Outline
• 6.1 Confidence Intervals for the Mean ( Known)
• 6.2 Confidence Intervals for the Mean ( Unknown)
• 6.3 Confidence Intervals for Population Proportions
• 6.4 Confidence Intervals for Variance and Standard

Deviation

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 Section 6.1

Confidence Intervals for the Mean

( Known)

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 Section 6.1 Objectives
• How to find a point estimate and a margin of error
• How to construct and interpret confidence intervals
for the population mean when is known
• How to determine the minimum sample size required
when estimating a population mean

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 Point Estimate for Population
μ
Point Estimate
• A single value estimate for a population parameter
• The most unbiased point estimate of the population
mean μ is the sample mean x

Estimate Population with Sample

Parameter… Statistic
Mean: μ x

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 Example: Point Estimate for
Population μ
A researcher is collecting data about a college athletic
conference and its student-athletes. A random sample of 40
student-athletes is selected and their numbers of hours spent
on required athletic activities for one week are recorded. Find
a point estimate for the population mean m, the mean number
of hours spent on required athletic activities by all student-
athletes in the conference. (Adapted from Penn Schoen
Berland)

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 Solution: Point Estimate for
Population μ
The sample mean of the data is

= = 21.1

The point estimate for the mean number of hours spent on

required athletic activities by all student-athletes in the
conference is about 21.1 hours.

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 Interval Estimate
Interval estimate
• An interval, or range of values, used to estimate a
population parameter.

Before finding a margin of error for an interval estimate,

first determine how confident you need to be that your
interval estimate contains the population mean μ.

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 Level of Confidence
Level of confidence c
• The probability that the interval estimate contains the
population parameter, assuming that the estimation
process is repeated a large number of times.

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 Critical Values
Critical Values
• Critical values are values that separate sample
statistics that are probable from sample statistics
that are improbable, or unusual.

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 90% Level of Confidence
• If the level of confidence is 90%, this means that we
are 90% confident that the interval contains the
population mean μ.
c = 0.90

½(1 – c) = 0.05 ½(1 – c) = 0.05

z
-zc = –1.645
zc z=0 zc =zc1.645

The corresponding z-scores are +1.645.

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 Sampling Error
Sampling error
• The difference between the point estimate and the
actual population parameter value.
• For μ:
 the sampling error is the difference x – μ
 μ is generally unknown
 x varies from sample to sample

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 Margin of Error
Margin of error
• Sometimes called the maximum error of estimate or
error tolerance.
• The greatest possible distance between the point
estimate and the value of the parameter it is
estimating. Denoted by E.
σ
E  zcσ x  zc Margin of error for μ ( known)
n
1. The sample is random.
2. Population is normally distributed or n ≥ 30.
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 Example: Finding the Margin
of Error
Use the data in Example 1 and a 95% confidence level
to find the margin of error for the mean number of
hours spent on required athletic activities by all
student-athletes in the conference. Assume the
population standard deviation is 2.3 hours.

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 Solution: Finding the Margin
of Error
• Because is known ( = 2.3), the sample is random, and
n = 40  30, use the formula for E given.
• The z-score that corresponds to a 95% confidence
level is 1.96. This implies that 95% of the area under
the standard normal curve falls within 1.96 standard
deviations of the mean.

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 Solution: Finding the Margin
of Error
• Using the values zc = 1.96, = 2.3, and n = 40,

= 1.96
0.7

You are 95% confident that the margin of error for the
population mean is about 0.7 hours.

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 Confidence Intervals for the
Population Mean
A c-confidence interval for the population mean μ

x E   x E where E  zc
n

• The probability that the confidence interval contains

μ is c, assuming that the estimation process is
repeated a large number of times.

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 Constructing Confidence
Intervals for μ
Finding a Confidence Interval for a Population Mean
(σ Known)
In Words In Symbols
1. Verify that σ known, sample is
random, and either the
population is normally
distributed or n ≥ 30.
x
2. Find the sample statistics n and x
x. n

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 Constructing Confidence
Intervals for μ
In Words In Symbols
3. Find the critical value zc that Use Table 4,
corresponds to the given Appendix B.
level of confidence.
E  zc

4. Find the margin of error E.
n
5. Find the left and right Left endpoint: x  E
endpoints and form the Right endpoint: x  E
confidence interval. Interval:
xE  xE

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 Example: Constructing a
Confidence Interval
Use the data in Example 1 to construct a 95% confidence
interval for the mean number of hours spent on required
athletic activities by all student-athletes in the conference.
Solution: Recall 21.1 and E

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 Solution: Constructing a
Confidence Interval
20.4 < μ < 21.8

With 95% confidence, you can say that the population

mean number of hours spent on required athletic activities
is between 20.4 and 21.8 hours.

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 Example: Constructing a
Confidence Interval
Use the data in Example 1 and technology to construct a
99% confidence interval for the mean number of hours
spent on required athletic activities by all student-
athletes in the conference.
Solution
Minitab and StatCrunch have features that allow you
to construct a confidence interval. You can construct
a confidence interval by entering the original data or
by using the descriptive statistics.

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 Solution: Constructing a
Confidence Interval
Solution

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 Solution: Constructing a
Confidence Interval
Solution
From the displays, a 99% confidence interval for  is
(20.1, 22.0). Note that this interval is rounded to the
same number of decimals places as the sample mean.

With 99% confidence, you can say that the population

mean number of hours spent on required athletic activities
is between 20.1 and 22.0 hours.

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 Example: Constructing a
Confidence Interval
A college admissions director wishes to estimate the
mean age of all students currently enrolled. In a random
sample of 20 students, the mean age is found to be 22.9
years. From past studies, the standard deviation is
known to be 1.5 years, and the population is normally
distributed. Construct a 90% confidence interval of the
population mean age.

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 Solution: Constructing a
Confidence Interval
• Using n = 20, = 22.9,  = 1.5, and zc = 1.645, the
margin of error at the 90% confidence level is
 1.5
E  zc  1.645   0.6
n 20
• Confidence interval:
Left Endpoint: Right Endpoint:
x E xE
 22.9  0.6  22.9  0.6
 22.3  23.5
22.3 < μ < 23.5
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 Solution: Constructing a
Confidence Interval
22.3 < μ < 23.5
Point estimate
22.3 22.9 23.5
( • )
xE x xE

With 90% confidence, you can say that the mean age
of all the students is between 22.3 and 23.5 years.

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 Interpreting the Results
• μ is a fixed number. It is either in the confidence
interval or not.
• Incorrect: “There is a 90% probability that the actual
mean is in the interval (22.3, 23.5).”
• Correct: “If a large number of samples is collected
and a confidence interval is created for each sample,
approximately 90% of these intervals will contain μ.

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 Interpreting the Results
The horizontal segments
represent 90% confidence
intervals for different
samples of the same size.
In the long run, 9 of every
10 such intervals will
contain μ.

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 Finding a Minimum Sample
Size to Estimate
• Given a c-confidence level and a margin of error E,
the minimum sample size n needed to estimate the
population mean  is
2
 zc 
n  .
 E 
• If n is not a while number, then round n up to the next
whole number.
• If  is unknown, you can estimate it using s provided
you have a preliminary sample with at least 30
members.
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 Example: Determining a
Minimum Sample Size
The researcher in Example 1 wants to estimate the mean
number of hours spent on required athletic activities by
all student-athletes in the conference. How many
student-athletes must be included in the sample to be
95% confident that the sample mean is within 0.5 hour
of the population mean?

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 Solution: Determining a
Minimum Sample Size
• Using c = 0.95, zc = 1.96, = 2.3 (from Example 2),
and E = 0.5, you can solve for the minimum sample
size n.
2 2
n = = 81.29.
• Because n is not a whole number, round up to 82. So,
the researcher needs at least 82 student-athletes in the
sample.
• The researcher has 40 student-athletes, so the sample
needs 42 more members. Note that 82 is the minimum
number of student-athletes to include in the sample.
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