ECEG-4243

Hydropower Engineering

Chapter three
Hydrologic and Hydraulic Design Concept

Aksum Institute Technology

Faculty of Electrical &
Computer Engineering
Department of Power Engineering
Araya. H

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 Hydraulic theory
• Energy-work approach:
• Work (W) = Force x Distance in the direction of force
• Work = weight of water x the distance it falls
W   wVw gh
• Where: ρw is density of water; g- acceleration due to gravity;
Vw- volume of water falling; h- the vertical distance the
water falls.
• It is conventional in hydropower computations to treat h as
the effective head that is utilized in producing power.
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 • Effective head (h) is the difference between
energy head at the entrance to the turbine
and the energy head at the exit of the draft
tube.

• The h has been purposely designated as slightly below the

headwater or fore-bay level. Hence, in the Figure, the losses of
head in the water moving through the penstock to the entrance
of the turbine have been accounted for in positioning the
elemental cube.
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• Power (P) = Work / time
W  wVw gh
P    wQgh
t t
Vw
Note Q 
t
• Where Q is discharge.
• P is in watt. To compare kilowatts and horsepower remember
that:
Pkw  0.746 Php
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Energy Equation Approach
• Mathematical development in terms of energy grade lines and hydraulic
grade lines, using the Energy Equation.
v12 p1 v22 p2
  z1    z 2  h f  Cons.
2g  2g 

• where V1 = water velocity at point 1

• p1 = pressure at point 1
• γ = ρg = specific weight of water
• Z1 = potential head at point 1 referenced to
the datum
• V2 =water velocity at point 2
• p2 =pressure at point 2
• Z2 =potential head at point 2
• hf = head loss in flow passage between
points 1 and 2
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• Referring to the Figure,
the Energy equation for
a hydropower
installation is first
written between point 1
at the surface of the
fore-bay and point 2 at
the entrance to the
turbine
2
as 2
v1 p1 v2 p 2
  z1    z 2  h f ... (1)
2g  2g 

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• Then the Energy equation is written between points 2 and 3, the surface
of the water at the exit to the draft tube:
v22 p2 v32 p
  z2   3  z3  h... ( 2)
2g  2g 
• Where h is effective head on the turbine
• Recognizing that for practical purposes V1, p1, and p3 are equal to zero,
then solving for p2/γ in Eq. 1, the
2
result is:
p2 v2
 z1   z 2  h f ... (3)
 2g
v22 p2 v32 v22  v22  v32
h   z2   z3    z1   z2  h f   z 2   z3
2g  2g 2g  2g  2g
v32
h  z1  z3  h f  ...(4)
2g

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 Hydrology of hydropower
• Hydrology is the study of the occurrence, movement and
distribution of water on, above, and within the earth's surface.
• Parameters necessary in making hydropower studies are water
discharge (Q) and hydraulic head (h). The measurement and
analyses of these parameters are primarily hydrologic problems.
• Determination of the head for a proposed hydropower plant is a
surveying problem that identifies elevations of water surfaces as
they are expected to exist during operation of the hydropower
plant.

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 Flow duration analysis
• Flow Duration Curves: is a 140

plot of flow versus the 120

percent of time a particular 100

flow can be expected to be

Discharge in m3/s
80

equaled or exceeded. 60

40

20

0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Exceedence in %

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 Cont…
 Flow duration curve, very often, plotted using the average
monthly values of the flow.
 The capacity estimate for firm power is then made by using
the entire recorded flow data and plotting in a single flow
duration curve.
 In such a case two different methods are in use.
(i) the total period /rank ordered method, and
(ii) the calendar year/ Class - interval method.

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 Total period method/Rank ordered Method:
 Considers a total time series of flows that represent equal
increments of time for each measurement value, such as
mean daily, weekly, or monthly flows, and ranks the
flows according to magnitude.
 The entire available record is used for drawing the FDC.
Thus, ten years’ record would produce 120 values of
monthly average flows.
 These are first tabulated in the ascending order starting
from the driest month in the entire period and ending with
the wettest month of the ten-year duration.
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 Con…
 The rank-ordered values are assigned individual order
numbers, the smallest beginning with order 1. The order
numbers are then divided by the total number in the record
and multiplied by 100 to obtain the percent of time that
the mean flow has been equaled or exceeded during the
period of record being considered.
 For the 10 year example the FDC would then be drawn
with the help of 120 values.

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Calendar year method/Class Interval Method:
• Each year’s/interval average monthly/interval values are first
arranged in ascending order.
 Such a curve for example would have only ten points for the ten
year example.
 The class-interval technique: is slightly different in that the time
series of flow values are categorized into class intervals. The
classes range from the highest flow value to the lowest value in
the time series.
 The number of flows greater than the upper limit of a class
interval can be divided by the total number of flow values in the
data series to obtain the equaled or exceeded percentage.
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 Con…
 The value of the flow for the particular upper limit of the
class interval is then plotted versus the computed equaled or
exceeded percent.
 The total period/rank ordered method gives more correct
results than the calendar year method which averages out
extreme events.
 Naturally, the longer the record, the more statistically
valuable the information that results.

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Characteristics of Flow Duration Curves
 The flow duration curve (FDC) shows how flow is distributed over a period
(usually a year).
 A steep flow duration curve implies a flashy catchment – one which is
subject to extreme floods and droughts.
 Factors which cause a catchment to be flashy are:
 Rocky, shallow soil,
 Lack of vegetation cover,
 Steep, short streams,
 Uneven rainfall (frequent storms, long dry periods).
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 The selection of the time interval for FDC depends on the purpose of
the study.
 While daily flow rates of small storms are useful for the pondage
studies in a run-off river power development plant, monthly flow
rates for a number of years are useful in power development plants
from a large storage reservoir.

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 Since the area under the curve represents the volume of flow, the storage
will affect the flow duration curve as shown by the dashed line in the Fig.;
i.e., reducing the extreme flows and increasing the very low flows.

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 Discharge capacity of a plant
• Discharge capacity (Qc) of a plant is the discharge the plant can pass at its
full gate opening of the runner(s) of the turbine(s) under design head.

140
• A flow duration curve is used
120
to explain discharge capacity
100
(Qc) as labeled in the Figure.
Even though to the left of that
Discharge in m3/s

80

60
point on the duration curve the
40
stream discharge is greater, it
20 Qc
is not possible to pass the
higher discharges through
0 22
0 20 40 60
Exceedence in %
80 100
the plant.
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 Determination of Average Annual Discharge
• To use the parametric flow duration curves effectively, it is
necessary to determine the average annual discharge, Q, at the point
or location on the stream for which a hydropower analysis is to be
made.
• A procedure for making that determination follows.
• First an accurate isohyetal map of normal annual precipitation (NAP) of the
river basin involved must be obtained or developed. Isohyetal maps contain
lines representing equal precipitation for a geographic region.
• Care should be taken that the map represents the same period of record as
the stream flow data for which flow duration data are available and needed.

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 Con…
Estimating the annual runoff coefficient. The product of this
coefficient and the computed normal annual precipitation input to the
basin and the basin area can be used to calculate the average annual
discharge using the formula:
Q = kPA,
• Where Q is average annual discharge
• k is annual runoff coefficient as a decimal value
• P is weighted average annual precipitation
• A is drainage area

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Methods of Discharge measurements
1. Flow measuring
2. Velocity area method
3. Slope area method
4. Suspended sediment
5. Tail water levels
6. Dissolved oxygen daily and average
7. Water temperature, daily and average

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Power duration curve
• Remember: P   wQgh
• The above equation is for theoretical conditions. The actual output is
diminished by the fact that the turbine has losses in transforming the potential
and kinetic energy into mechanical energy. Thus an efficiency term (ɳ),
usually called overall efficiency, must be introduced to give the standard
power equation:
P   wQgh
• If hydraulic head and the expected losses in the penstock are known, it is
possible to generate a power duration curve from the flow duration curve.
How?
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• If the river course is divided into a number of stretches, the total
power can be described by
P   w g  Qh
• High discharges are available only for short durations in a year. Thus the
corresponding available power would be of short duration.
• If the discharge rate and the percentage duration of time for which it is
available are plotted, a flow-duration curve results.
• Power duration curve can also be plotted since power is directly
proportional to the discharge and available head.
• Discharge/Power duration curve indicates discharge or power available in
the stream for the given percentage of time.
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 The available power from a run-of-river plant could be represented by a power
duration curve exactly on lines analogous to a FDC;
 Generally, the head variation in a run-of-river plant is considerably less
than the discharge variation.
 If the head is presumed to be constant at an average value, power duration
curve would exactly correspond to FDC.
 This is very often the procedure in elementary rough calculations. If, however,
a precise power duration curve is desired, then the head corresponding to any
discharge is required to be known.

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 P50 Pm P95 P100
Power

0 50 95 100
Percentage of time equaled or exceeded

Minimum potential power computed from the minimum flow available for
100 % of the time (365 days or 8760 hours). This is represented as P 100;
Small potential power computed from the flow available for 95 % of time
(flow available for 8322 hours). This is represented as P 95;
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 Average potential power computed from the flow available for
50% of the time (flow available for 6 months or 4380 hours). This
is represented as P50;
 Mean potential power computed from the average of mean yearly
flows for a period of 10 to 30 years, which is equal to the area of
the flow-duration curve corresponding to this mean year. This is
known as ‘Gross river power potential’ and is represented as Pm.
 Technically available power: With conveyance efficiency of 70%
and overall efficiency of the plant as 80%, a combined multiplying
factor of 0.56 should be used with the average potential power, P50;
Pa  0.56P50
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• The value of net water power capable of being developed
technically is also computed from the potential water power by
certain reduction factors to account for losses of head in the
conveyance and losses associated with energy conversion. This
factor to be about 0.75 or 0.80, i.e
𝑃 𝑚𝑛𝑒𝑡 =( 7.4𝑡𝑜8.0 ) 𝑄 𝑚 h
• Where Qm = the arithmetic mean discharge
• The maximum river energy potential is given as
Emax net  8760 Pm net Kwh

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Example 1. The following is the record of average yearly flow in a river for 15 years.
If the available head is 15 m, construct the FDC and power duration curve for the river.

Year 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964
Flow
(m3/s) 905 865 1050 1105 675 715 850 775 590

Year 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970

Flow
(m3/s) 625 810 885 1025 1150 925

Solution
 The yearly flow values are arranged in ascending order (see table below). The power
corresponding to each flow values are calculated assuming the head (=15 m) to be
constant. Then, FDC and power duration curves are plotted on the same graph.
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 Rank Flow in ascending Power (=9.81 QH) Percentage of time exceeded
order (m3/s) [kW] =(m/n)*100

(1) (2) (3)

1 590 86819 100.0
2 625 91969 93.4
3 675 99326 86.7
4 715 105212 80.0
5 775 114041 73.4
6 810 119192 66.7
7 850 125078 60.0
8 865 127285 53.4
9 885 130228 46.7
10 905 133171 40.0
11 925 136114 33.3
12 1025 150829 26.7
13 1050 154508 20.0
14 1105 162601 13.3
15 1150 169223 6.7
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n = number of records ; m = number of times flow exceeded or equaled
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 1200 180000

Flow Power
170000
1100
160000

1000 150000

140000
900
Flow, m3/s

130000

Power, MW
800
120000

700 110000

100000
600
90000

500 80000
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0

% of time equalled or exceeded

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Example 3:
• A turbine installation developing 7.5 MW under 27.5 m head with
an overall efficiency of 0.83 is to be supplied from a reservoir. The
estimated runoff for 12 consecutive months each 30 days (Million
m3/month) were: 96.2, 101.8, 86.3, 74.9, 67.9, 80.6, 113.2, 90.5, 86.3, 93.4, 99.0,
and 89.1.
• Assume the reservoir is full at the beginning of the first month.
• Determine the minimum capacity of the reservoir to ensure the
required demand (86.8 10*6 m3/month) and Find the discharge
wasted

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Solution
Q Demand (106 Surplus (106 Inflow to Deficit Wastage (106 Total Wastage
(10 m3/
6
m3/ month) m3/ month) resevoir (106 m3/ m3/ month)
month) month)

96.2 86.8 9.4 0 0 9.4 9.4

101.8 86.8 15 0 0 15 24.4
86.3 86.8 -0.5 -0.5 0.5 0 24.4
74.9 86.8 -11.9 -11.9 12.4 0 24.4
67.9 86.8 -18.9 -18.9 31.3 0 24.4
80.6 86.8 -6.2 -6.2 37.5 0 24.4
113.2 86.8 26.4 26.4 11.1 0 24.4
90.5 86.8 3.7 3.7 7.4 0 24.4
86.3 86.8 -0.5 -0.5 7.9 0 24.4
93.4 86.8 6.6 6.6 1.3 0 24.4
99 86.8 12.2 1.3 0 10.9 35.3 41
89.1 86.8 2.3 0 0 2.3 37.6
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 Theoretical and Actual (Approximate) Power
 The amount of energy available in a stored water is the product of the weight times
the height that the water falls
 E = W = mgh, m = ρv
E = ρvgh [Joules]
Where: m = mass of water
ρ = density of water = 1000 kg/m3
v = volume of water m3
h = height of water fall (m)
g = acceleration due to gravity = 9.806 m/s2
 Then the power available is
P = dE/dt = d(ρvgh)/dt
= ρgh(dv)/dt
Pth = ρghQ watts
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Where: Q = dv/dt water flow rate m3/s
 Cont’d
 The power at the out put of the turbine is

P = ρ g h Q ηt Watts
ρ = water density = 1000 kg/m3
g = gravitational const. = 9.81 m/s2
h = head (m)
Q = water flow (m3/s)
ηt = turbine efficiency
 There fore The power at the out put of the generator is
Pactual = ρ g h Q ηt ηg Watts
Where:
Ƞg = generator efficiency
43
Cont’d

Taking a rough approximation for hydroelectric

installations (i.e. with Ƞt = 0.85, and Ƞg = 0.96), the
following relationship can be used:
PGen ≈ 8Qh kW
 With different values for turbine and generator
efficiencies the following approximations can also
be used
PGen ≈ 8.2Qh kW or
PGen ≈ 8.5Qh kW
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 Converted Energy
We know the available stored energy in the water is
E = mgh = ρvgh = ρKgh (Joule)
If the useful volume of water K m3 is known (e.g. the capacity of a reservoir, annual
discharge, etc.), the converted energy is
E = 1000 K h Ƞt Ƞg * 1000 Ws
102
E = 1000 K h Ƞt Ƞg * 1000 Wh
102*3600
E = 1000 K h Ƞt Ƞg KWh
102*3600
Using the approximation 1000ȠtȠg/102 ≈ 8, then
E ≈ 0.0022Kh KWh
Hence electrical energy generated for every m 3 of water
used is
E / K ≈ 0 . 0022h KWh/m3
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 Example 4
 Consider a mountain stream with an effective head of 25 meters
(m) and a flow rate of 600 liters (ℓ) per minute

a. How much power could a hydro plant generate?

b. How much energy (E) will the hydro plant generate each year?

c. About how many people will this energy support (assume approximately 1,500 kWh / person)?
Assume plant efficiency () of 83%

Solution

a. Power generated from the hydropower plant is

H = 25 m
Q = 600 ℓ/min × 1 m3/1000 ℓ × 1 min/60sec
Q = 0.01 m3/sec
h = 0.83 46
 Cont’d

P  gρQH = 10*(0.83)*(0.01)*(25)*1000 = 2.075KW

P  2.1 kW

b. The energy generated per year will be

E = P×t
E = 2.1 kW × 24 hrs/day × 365 days/yr
E = 18,396 kWh annually

c. No of People = E÷1,500 = 18,396/1,500 = 12.264

About 12 people

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 Example 5
Consider a second site with an effective head of 100 m and a flow rate of 6,000 cubic meters per
second (about that of Niagara Falls)

a. How much power could a hydro plant generate?

b. How much energy (E) will the hydro plant generate each year?

c. About how many people will this energy support (assume approximately 1,500 kWh / person)?
Assume plant efficiency () of 83%

a. P  10QH = 10(0.83)(6000)(100) kW
P  4.98 million kW = 4.98 GW (gig watts)

b. E = P×t = 4.98GW × 24 hrs/day × 365 days/yr

E = 43,625 GWh = 43.6 TWh (terawatt hours)

c. No of People = E÷1,500 = 43.6 TWh / 1,500 kWh 48

People = 2.9 million people
 Example 6
a. The net useful power in a hydroelectric power plant (HEPP) can be
computed by setting
P (kW) = 9.81QHdȠ
if the approximate power calculations are to be set as
P(kW) = 8.5 QH
P(kW) = 8.2 QH and
P(kW) = 8.0 QH
i. Calculate values for the efficiency of each approximation
ii. Explain also why and when different values of efficiencies are to be considered in estimating the net power
in a given hydroelectric power plant.
b. By choosing and justifying an appropriate expression from those given
above, calculate P given the following values of discharge rates and heads for an HEPP, respectively
(i) 2.1m3s-1 and 25m
(ii) 5.8 m3s-1, and 10m
(iii) 10 m3s-1 and 100m
(iv) 3 units, with 7.3m3s-1 per unit and 600m
(v) 61.6 m3s-1 and 300m
(vi) 105.4 m3s-1 and 48m
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(vii) 3 units, with 41.5 m3s-1 per unit and 200m
 Solution for example 6
a) i. Net power = approximate power
9.81QHdȠ = 8.5 QHd
Ƞ = 8.5/9.81 = 0.866
Ƞ = 8.2/9.81 = 0.836
Ƞ = 8.0/9.81 = 0.8155
ii. Depending on the amount of gross head and flow rate we can use different
approximations
b) By choosing and justifying an appropriate expression from
those given above, calculate P given the following values of
discharge rates and heads for an HEPP respectively
i. 2.1m3s-1 and 25m
P = 8.0 QH
= 8*2.1*25 = 420 kW
ii. 5.8 m3s-1, and 10m
P = 8.0 QH = 8.0*5.8*10 = 464 kW 50
 Cont’d
iii. 10 m3s-1 and 100m
P = 8.5 QH
= 8.5*10*100 = 1850 kW
iv) 3 units, with 7.3m3s-1 per unit and 600m
P = 8.5 QH
P = 8.5*7.3*600 = 37230 = 37.23MW
Total Power = 3*37230 =111.69MW
(v) 61.6 m3s-1 and 300m
P = 8.0* 61.6* 300
= 147.840 MW
(vi) 105.4 m3s-1 and 48m
P = 8.0*QH
= 8.0*105.4*48
= 40.4736 MW
(vii) 3 units, with 41.5 m3s-1 per unit and 200m
P = 8.0*QH = 8.0*41.5*200 = 66.4 MW
Total Power = 3*66.4 = 199.2 MW 51
Factors Determining Potential of Hydropower

P (kW) = ρgQhȠ
 The factors which affects the potential of hydropower
are the following
 Head and head losses

 Flow rate

 System losses

 Component inefficiencies

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 Cont’d
Head
 Head is one of the factors which have great influence on the
system capacity
 In any real system water losses its some energy because of
frictional drag and turbulence as it flows in channels and
through pipes and the effective head will be less than actual
head
 These flow losses vary from system to system: in some cases
the effective head can be less than 75% of actual head, in
others it can be greater than 95%
For example
Two systems with flow rate of 100 m3/s and plant efficiency of 83%
First system(low-head) Second system(high-head)
Effective head 10 m 110 m
Available power(ghQȠ) 8,142 kW 8,9565.3 kW
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 Cont’d

Gross Head (m)

Net Head (m)

Minimum Head (m)

Cont’d

Flow rate
 Flow rate is another very important factor which can
influence system capacity.
For example:
Two systems with effective head of 100 meters and plant
efficiency of 83%
First system Second system
Flow rate 0.0024 m3/s 6000 m3/s
Available power 1.95 kW 4,885,380 kW

55
 Cont’d
System losses
 When electricity is transported along a transmission
system, the losses occur. As a result, what comes out
of the system at the consumer is less than what is
input into the system at the generation site.
 Component inefficiencies
Component losses include losses in:
Penstock
Turbine
Generator
Step up & down transformer losses
Transmission losses
 The generator efficiency gives the ratio between mechanical
energy of the turbine shaft and electrical energy delivered from 56
the generator.
 Main design parameters
 The power capacity of a hydropower plant is primarily a function
of two main variables
 Water flow
 Hydraulic head
 A graphical representation of the percentage of time in the
historical record that a flow of any given magnitude has been
equaled or exceeded

57
Design Flow
 Design flow is the maximum flow for which your
hydro system is designed
 It will likely be less than the maximum flow of the
stream (especially during the rainy season), more
than the minimum flow, during dry season
 If a system is to be independent of any other energy
or utility backup, the design flow should be the flow
that is available 95 percent of the time or more
 Therefore, a stand-alone system such as a micro-
hydropower system should be designed according to
the flow that is available year-round; this is usually
the flow during the dry season.
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 Some flow definitions

 Reserved flow: it is the minimum flow required to

avoid aquatic life damage in the water stream
 Firm flow: The firm flow is defined as the flow being
available X % of the time, where X is a percentage
specified by the user and usually equal to 95%.

59
 Hydraulic head
 Gross Head of a hydropower facility is the difference between headwater elevation and tail
water elevation. With the use of survey instrument, gross head can be determined systematically
and accurately
 Maximum head (Hmax) - above which the excess water spilled after impounding during or after
a heavy rainy season with possible flood
 Minimum head (Hmin) - below which the reservoir should ideally be not allowed to be drawn
down , and water contents in a given reservoir is said to have been lowered down so a dead storage
state occurs.
 Design head (Hd) - which is used the actual in water capacity calculation for a given HEPP,
which can also be referred to as the effective head , which in turn equal to the growth head minus
hydraulic losses before entrance to the turbine and outlet losses

60
Power output

 By taking the above design parameters in to

consideration, the power output formula can be
modified as

P = ρgQdHdȠtot

Where
Qd = Design flow
Hd = Design head
Ƞtot = Total efficiency

61
Concept of Plant Factor (PF)
 The plant factor is the ratio of the actual energy used to the total
energy that would be delivered if the system runs continuously
at its rated power.
 It expresses the extent to which the hydropower installation is
actually it is exploited for profitable use.

 Energy production can be estimated on a yearly base as

E(kWh) = Power *t (time of generation)
Time in a year = 365*24 = 8760hr
= 365.25*24 = 8766hr.
 Therefore Plant Factor is defined as:
Plant Factor = Energy Used
Energy Available
PF = Power Used X Time Power Used
Power Installed X Time Considered 62
Cont’d
 e.g. Given a hydroelectric power plant with generating
capacity P(KW), P(MW), P(GW), if we use the rated
capacity for a time tH in a year
Therefore the plant power factor is
PF = Power used*Time used = P* tH
installed power*8760 P*8760

Suppose tH = 3000hr
Then PF = 3000/8760 = 0.35
take also tH = 5000hr
PF = 5000/8760 = 0.57. 63
Cont…
Note-If a PF~0.3, then the plant is normally called PEAK LOAD
PLANT
If a PF~O.55-0.57 then the HEPP is called BASE LOAD PLAN
 Example 7
For a 100-MW HEPP with a design head of 300m, and plant factor of 0.6,
determine:
i. Electrical energy generated in one year
ii. An approximate value of the theoretical energy stored in a year in the reservoir
of the HEPP for conversion into useful energy
iii. Depth of water in the reservoir between a season with floods
and a dry season and
iv. The approximate surface area of the reservoir
(Hint: For part (iv), potential energy of the stored water in joules
is given by ∆E ≈ F∆HρgH, with F = surface area, ∆H = is the
depth of the reservoir needed for energy conversion;
K = F∆H = volume of useful stored water; ρ = water density, g =
acceleration due to gravity, and Hd is the design head)
Note: You can assume that Hd = 0.78Hmax and Hmin = 0.61Hmax, where Hd is the
"design head", Hmax is the maximum allowable head in the reservoir and Hmin is the
minimum head in the reservoir during a dry season. 65
 Solution 7
Given
P = 100MW, PF = 0.6, Hd = 300m
i. Electrical energy generated in one year
E = P * time of operation in one year
E = P * 8760 * PF
= 100MW * 8760 * 0.6 h
= 525.6GWh ……………….ANS
ii. An approximate value of the theoretical energy stored in a
year in the reservoir of the HEPP for conversion into useful
energy.
Eactual = Etheoretical * Ƞ
⇒ Etheoretical = 525.6 = 641GWh …………….ANS
0.82
iii. Depth of water in the reservoir between a season with floods
and a dry season is ∆H and change in energy production
66
between the flood and dry season is ∆E
 Cont’d
Therefore ∆E = ρ∆VgHd
= ρ∆HAgHd ……….………………equation **
Where
A = Surface area of the reservoir
∆H = Hmax – Hmin change in water elevation
But it is given that Hd = 0.78 * Hmax
Hd = 0 .78 * Hmax,
⇒ Hmax = 300
0.78
= 384.6 m
Hmin = 0.61 * Hmax
⇒ Hmin = 0.61 * 384.6 = 234.6 m
Therefore, ∆H = Hmax − Hmin
= 150 m ……… ANS
67
Cont’d

iv. The approximate surface area,

From equation ** A = ∆E
ρ∆HgHd
Note, 1KWh = 3.6 MJ
641GWh = 641*106*1KWh
= 641*106*3.6*106J
= 2307.6*1012J
Finally A = ∆E
ρ∆HgHd
= 2307.6 *1012
1000*150*9.81*300
= 5226.6*103 m2

68
Electrical Load Prediction and Demand Assessment
• Power is needed for several purposes, such as domestic, commercial,
industrial, municipal, agricultural, public transport etc.
• The energy demand (local, regional, trans-regional) is subject to considerable
temporal fluctuations. These variations could be from hour to hour within a
day, from day to day within a week, from month to month within a year, etc.
• These seasonal fluctuations depend on:
Weather, season;
Vacation times;
Cyclical business activity.
• Daily fluctuations are due to:
Rhythm of work time and free time; Weather; Traffic.
Continued…
• Typical load curve

Load (MW)

Day-time Night-time

6 12 18 24 6
Time (hrs)

• At certain times the demand may reach the highest value, known as the peak-load. This
maximum demand usually determines the size of a plant. Generally, the peak-load is
defined as that part of the load carried at intensity greater than 4/3 times the mean load
intensity.
Continued…
• To fulfill the fluctuating energy demand, the following types of power plants
are interconnected to each others and work together:
• Base load power stations (coal, oil, nuclear and run-of-river scheme
power stations);
• Average load power stations (temporary, gas and reservoir power
stations);
• Peak load power stations (pumped storage and peak load hydro power
stations).
• Planning a hydropower station
• Load forecasting may be done either for:
1. Short-term (< 5 years), is useful for existing projects modification.
2. Medium-term (around 10 years), is planned to supply energy for a local
area.
3. Long-term (> 20 years) is used for planning hydropower of any country.
Continued…
There are three basic load forecasting techniques:
• Trend analysis
• End-use analysis
• Econometric analysis
• Trend analysis extends past growth rates of power demand into the future. It focuses on past
changes or movements in demand and uses them to predict future changes in the demand.
• It is useful when there is no enough data to use more sophisticated methods
• The basic idea of end-use analysis is that the demand for power depends on what it is used
for (the end-use).
• The advantage of end-use analysis is that it identifies exactly where power goes and how
much is used for each purpose.
• Econometric analysis uses economics, mathematics, and statistics to forecast power
demand. It is a combination of trend analysis and end-use analysis, but it does not make the
trend analyst’s assumption that future power demand can be projected based on past demand.
Continued…
Example 8:
Given: Q=50 m³/s Find: Power, P
H=5 m Work, E for t=7,000h/year
ηtot=0.8

Solution
Power, P
P = η*γ*Q*H
P=0.8*(1000kg/m³*9.81m/s²)*50.0m³/s*5m=1962 KW = 1.962 MW

Work, E, for a yearly operation of 7000 hrs

E=P*t
E=1962 KW*7000h =13.7*106 KWh
=13.7 GWh
 3.2 Load terminologies
• Load is the amount of power delivered or received at a given point at any instant.
• Average Load is the total load produced divided by the number of hours in the time period of
interest.
• Peak Load is the maximum instantaneous load or a maximum average load over a specified
period of time.
• Base load is the total load continuously exceeded;
 Power demand is defined as the total load, which consumers
choose, at any instant of time, to connect to the supplying
Peak
power system.
load
 The highest instantaneous value of the demand is, strictly
Load

Average speaking, the peak load or peak demand. Generally, peak load
load is defined as that part of the load carried at intensity greater
than 4/3 times the mean load intensity.

6 12 18 24 74
Time
 Load factor
• The degree of variation of the load over a period of time is measured by the
load factor, which may be defined as the average load divided by the peak
load within the given time range.
• The load factor measures variation only and does not give any indication of
the precise shape of the load-duration curve.
• The area under the load curve represents the energy consumed in kWh; Thus, a
daily load factor may also be defined as the ratio of the actual energy
consumed during 24 hours to the peak demand assumed to continue for 24
hours.
• Load factor gives an idea of degree of utilization of capacity;
• Thus, an annual load factor of 0.4 indicates that the machines are producing
only 40% of their yearly production capacity. 75
 Load factor
• As the load factor approaches zero,
the duration curve will approach a

Load
narrow L shape, indicating a peak
load of very short duration with very
low or no load during the major
Time
portion of the time.
• As the load factor approaches unity,
the duration curve will be somewhat

Load
rectangular in appearance, indicating
high sustained loads.
76
Time
 Capacity factor
• The capacity factor is the ratio of the energy actually produced by the plant for
any given period of time to the energy it would be capable of producing at its full
capacity for that period of time.
• The extent of use of the generating plant is measured by the capacity factor,
frequently also termed plant factor or use factor. If during a given period a plant
is kept fully loaded, it is evident that it is used to the maximum extent, or
operated at 100% capacity factor.
• The factor is equal to the average load divided by the rated capacity of the plant.
• Capacity factor and load factor become identical when the peak load is equal to
the capacity of the plant. The relationship between the two factors is evidently

Peak Load  Load factor

Capacity Factor  77
Rated capacity of the plant
• For example, if a plant with a capacity of 100MW produces 6,000,000 kWh
operating for 100 hours, its capacity factor will be 0.6, i.e
6000000
C .F .   0 .6
100000  100
• The capacity factor for hydroelectric plants generally varies between 0.25 and
0.75.
• The capacity factor would be identical with load factor if the peak load were
equal to the plant capacity.
• Thus, in the above example, if the maximum load was 75 MW instead of 100
MW, then 6000000
L.F .   0.8 againest C.F .  0.6
75000  100
78
 Utilization Factor
• The utilization factor measures the use made of the total installed capacity of the
plant. It is defined as the ratio of the peak load and the rated capacity of the plant.
• Utilization Factor: is the ratio of the quantity of water actually utilized for power
production to that available in the river. If the head is assumed to be constant, then
the utilization factor would be equal to the ratio of power utilized to that available.
• The factor for a plant depends upon the type of system of which it is a part of. A low
utilization factor may mean that the plant is used only for stand-by purposes on a
system comprised of several stations or that capacity has been installed well in
advance of need.
• In the case of a plant in a large system, high utilization factor indicates that the plant
is probably the most efficient in the system. In the case of isolated plants a high
value means the likelihood of good design with some reserve-capacity allowance.
• The value of utilization factor varies between 0.4 and 0.9 depending on the79plant
capacity, load factor and storage.
 Example 9
• Consider the yearly load duration curve for a certain load center to be
a straight line from 20 to 3 MW. To meet this load, three hydropower
units, two rated at 10 MW each and one at 5 MW are installed.
Determine:
• Load factor (LF) MW
• Capacity factor (CF) Solution
• Utilization factor (UF) 20

3  20
 100%  t
LF  2  100%  57.5%
20  100%  t 3
3  20
 100%  t
2 100
CF   100%  46% Time (%)
(10  10  5)  100%  t
20  100%  t
UF   100%  80% 80
25  100%  t
 Diversity factor
• Diversity factor (DF) is the summation of the different types of load
divided by the peak load.
• If there be four different types of load L1, L2, L3 and L4 and the peak load
from the combination of these loads is LP, then the diversity factor is
expressed as:
(L1 + L2 + L3 + L4)/LP
i n
• Note that the diversity factor has aDF 
value which
Li Lisp greater than unity.
• For n load combination: i 1

• An area served by a power plant having different types of load, peaking

at different times, the installed capacity is determined by dividing81 the
total of maximum peak load by diversity factor.
Continued…
Example 10:
Given: Two stations sharing a common load
- one is base load station
- the other is stand by station
Base load station characteristics:
Installed capacity = 25 MW
Yearly output = 125*106 KWh
Take a peak of 22.5 MW
Standby station characteristics
Installed capacity = 30 MW
Yearly output = 10.5*106 KWh
Peak load taken by stand by station = 15 MW
Station works for 2500 hrs/year
Determine (1) Annual load factor for both
(2) Plant use factor for both
(3) Capacity factor for both
Continued…
Solution
Base load station
Total energy generated per year = 125*106 kwh
Capacity of the station = 25*103 KW
Maximum demand = 22,500 KW
i) Annual load factor = P generated total units = 125*106
peak load * 8760 22500*8760
= 0.634 = 63.4%
ii) Plant use factor = max. demand = 22,500 = 0.9 = 90%
Installed capacity 25,000
iii) Capacity factor = average demand
capacity of the station
average demand = 125*106 KWh = 14269 KW
8760 h
:. capacity factor = 14,269/25,000 = 0.57 = 57%
Standby station
i) annual load factor = 10.5*106 / (15,000*2500) = 0.028 = 28%
ii) plant use factor = 15*103 / 30000 = 0.5 = 50%
iii) average demand = 10.5* 106 / 2500 = 4200 KW
capacity factor = 4200/30000 = 0.14 =14%
Continued…
Example 11
A run-off-river plant operates as a peak load plant with 20% weekly load factor, and all its capacity is firm capacity. What will
be the minimum flow in the river so that the station may serve as a base load station given that:
Installed capacity of generator = 10,000 KW
Operating head = 15m
Plant efficiency = 80%
Estimate the daily load factor of the plant if the stream flow is 15m 3/s.
Solution :
When the plant operates as a peak-load plant with 20% load factor, the total energy generated for one week will be
10,000*0.20*7*24 = 33.6 * 104 KWh
If Q is min. flow necessary for plant to run as abase load, the power P developed will be.
P = 9.81 n Q H KW
= 9.81*Q*15*0.8 = 117.6 Q KW
Total generated per week = 117.6 Q * 7 * 24 = 1.98*10 4 * Q KWh.
:. Q = 33.6 * 104 = 16.97 m3/s min. flow in the river.
1.98 * 104
If the stream flow is 15m3/s, the power developed = 117.6 Q
Total generated in 24 hrs = 1764*24 = 42336 KWh
:. Daily load factor = 42336 = 0.1764 = 17.64%
10000*24
 3.3 Load Duration Curve
• Load Curve: A load curve is a graph of load consumption with respect to time and directly
gives an indication of power used at any time (daily, weekly, monthly, annually, etc.)
• Daily Load Curve is a curve drawn between load as the ordinate and time in hours as the
abscissa for one day.

Peak Load

Average Load
Load[MW]

Base Load

0 6 12 18 24 85

Time
 Con…
• The area under the curve of a daily chronological load curve measures the
total energy consumed by the load during the day. This energy is evaluated
by: t  24
E  kwdt
t 1
Street light?
Industrial load with one
shift operation Residential load

Load
Load

Time 86
Time 6 12 18 24
6 12 18 24
• It will be necessary for system planning and operating estimates to express the variation
in, and the integration of, the total energy requirements for a period of time in some
concise form; the load-duration curve does this.
• Firm Power: The firm or primary power is the power which is always ensured to a
consumer at any hour of the day and is, thus, completely dependable power. Firm power
would correspond to the minimum stream flow and is available for all the times;

87
 Fundamentally the load-duration curve is nothing more than a rearrangement
of all the load elements of a chronological curve in the order of descending
magnitude. The areas under the load-duration and corresponding
chronological curves are equal. Since it is impractical to determine the
equation of load curve, the area or energy is determined graphically.
 It is usually prepared for a longer duration such as a year.
 The area under load duration curve for a time duration would be the same as
that of a load curve for the same particular period of time.
 The area under a load duration curve represents the total energy production
for the duration. Thus, annual load factor is given by the ratio of the area
under the curve to the area of the rectangle corresponding to the maximum
demand occurring during the course of the year.
88
  The firm power could be increased by the use of pondage (storage).

Curve without storage

Discharge Curve with storage

Primary power
Primary power without storage with storage

0 100
Percentage of time

 Secondary power: Also known as surplus or non-firm power, is the power other than
the primary power and is, thus, comparatively less valuable 89
 Secondary
Secondary power

Discharge
power

Primary power

0 Percentage of time 100

 The secondary power is useful in an interconnected system of power plants.

 At off-peak hours, the secondary power may be called upon to relieve the
interconnected stations thus affecting economy.
 The secondary power may also be used to take care of the current demand
by following a load-duration plan 90
 Example 12
• The following data are obtained from the records of the mean monthly flows of a river for
10 years. The head available at the site of the power plant is 60 m and the plant efficiency is
80%.
Mean monthly No. of
flow range occurrences 1. Plot the FDC and PDC
(m /s)
3
(in 10-yr period) 2. Determine the mean monthly
100-149 3 flow that can be expected and
150-199 4 the average power that can be
200-249 16 developed.
250-299 21 3. Indicate the effect of storage
300-349 24 on the FDC obtained.
350-399 21 4. What would be the trend of the
20 curve if the mean weekly flow
400-449
9
data are used instead of
450-499
2
monthly flows?
500-549 91
Solution
1. The mean monthly flow ranges are arranged in the ascending order as shown in Table
(Next slide).
The number of times that each mean monthly flow range (class interval, C.I.) has been
equaled or exceeded (m) is worked out as cumulative number of occurrences starting from
the bottom of the column of number of occurrences, since the C.I. of the monthly flows, are
arranged in the ascending order of magnitude.
It should be noted that the flow values are arranged in the ascending order of magnitude in
the flow duration analysis, since the minimum continuous flow that can be expected almost
throughout the year (i.e., for a major percent of time) is required particularly in drought
duration and power duration studies, while in flood flow analysis the CI may be arranged in
the descending order of magnitude and m is worked out from the top as cumulative number
92
of occurrences since the high flows are of interest.
Table: Flow duration analysis of mean monthly flow data of a river in a 10 yr period
Mean No. of No. time % of time lower Monthly P =
monthly occurrences equaled or value of CI 9.81x60x0.8xQ
flow C.I. (in 10-yr exceeded equaled or (MW)
(m3/s) period) (m) exceeded Q is lower value of
= (m/n) x 100% CI

100-149 3 120 100 47.2

150-199 4 117 97.5 70.8
200-249 16 113 94.2 94.4
250-299 21 97 80.8 118
300-349 24 76 63.3 142
350-399 21 52 43.3 165
400-449 20 31 25.8 189
450-499 9 11 9.2 212
500-549 2 2 1.7 236
Total n =120
93
(i) The flow duration curve is obtained by plotting Q vs. percent of time in the Fig. (Q =
lower value of the CI.).
(ii) The power duration curve is obtained by plotting P vs. percent of time, see the Fig.

2. The mean monthly flow that can be

expected is the flow that is available
for 50% of the time i.e., 335 m3/s
from the FDC drawn.
The average power that can be
developed i.e., from the flow
available for 50% of the time, is 157
MW, from the PDC drawn.

94
3. The effect of storage is to raise the flow duration curve on the dry weather
portion and lower it on the high flow portion and thus tends to equalize the
flow at different times of the year, as indicated in Fig. above.
4. If the mean weekly flow data are used instead of the monthly flow data, the
flow duration curve lies below the curve obtained from monthly flows for
about 75% of the time towards the drier part of the year and above it for the
rest of the year as indicated in Fig. above
In fact the flow duration curve obtained from daily flow data gives the details
more accurately (particularly near the ends) than the curves obtained from
weekly or monthly flow data but the latter provide smooth curves because of
their averaged out values.

95
• Example 13. A run-of-river hydroelectric plant with an effective head of 22
m and plant efficiency of 80% supplies power to a variable load as given
below:
• Draw the load curve and determine
• (i) The minimum average daily flow to supply the indicated load
• (ii) Pondage required to produce the necessary power at the peak
• (iii) The plant load factor

97
• Solution
• (i) The load curve is shown below.
• Total sum of loads at 2-hr intervals = 428.6 x 1000 kW
• Average load = (428.6 x 1000 kW x 2hr)/24hr = 35.72 MW
• Flow, Q, required to develop the average load
• → Q = 35.72MW/(9.81x22x0.8) = 207 m3/s

98
• (ii) Flow required to produce the required load/demand
• Q = P in 1000 kW/(9.81x22x0.8) = 5.8 x Load in 1000 kW

• To determine the pondage capacity the table in the next slide is prepared.
From the table
• Total deficiency = total excess = 510 m3/s
• Therefore, pondage capacity required = 510 m3/s for 2 hrs
• = 510 x (2 x 60 x 60) = 3.67 x 106 m3 or 3.67 Mm3
• (iii) Plant load factor is the ratio of average load to peak load,
• 35.72/74.2 = 0.482

99
100
05/02/2024 Aksum institut technology 101
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 Thanks for your attention

05/02/2024 AIT DEP OF POWER ENGINEERING 103