Chapter 9

Correlation and
Regression

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 Chapter Outline
• 9.1 Correlation
• 9.2 Linear Regression
• 9.3 Measures of Regression and Prediction Intervals
• 9.4 Multiple Regression

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 Section 9.2

Linear Regression

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 Section 9.2 Objectives
• How to find the equation of a regression line
• How to predict y-values using a regression equation

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 Regression lines
• After verifying that the linear correlation between
two variables is significant, the next step is to
determine the equation of the line that best models
the data.
• This line is called a regression line, and its equation
can be used to predict the value of y for a given value
y
of x.

x
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 Residuals
• For each data point, di represents the difference between the
observed y-value and the predicted y-value for a given x-value.
• These differences are called residuals and can be positive,
negative, or zero.

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 Regression Line
Regression line (line of best fit)
• The line for which the sum of the squares of the
residuals is a minimum.  di2
• The equation of a regression line for an independent
variable x and a dependent variable y is
ŷ = mx + b
y-intercept
Predicted Slope
y-value for
a given x-
value
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 The Equation of a Regression
Line
• The equation of a regression line for an independent
variable x and a dependent variable y is
ŷ = mx + b
where is the predicted y-value for a given x-value.
The slope m and y-intercept b are given by
n  xy   x y y x
m b  y  mx  m
n  x 2   x
2
n n
where is the mean of the y-values in the data set, is
the mean of the x-values, and n is the number of pairs
of data. The regression line always passes through the
point (x, y).
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 Example: Finding the
Equation of a Regression Line
Find the equation of the
regression line for the gross
domestic products and
carbon dioxide emissions
data

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 Solution: Finding the
Equation of a Regression Line
Recall that there is a significant linear correlation
between gross domestic products and carbon dioxide
emissions. Also, you found that n = 10, = 22.9,
= 5129.7, = 14,350.74, and 2 = 65.49. You can use
these values to calculate the slope m of the regression
line
m=
=
199.5346

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 Solution: Finding the
Equation of a Regression Line
• and its y-intercept b.
b= −m
– (199.5346)
56.036
• So, the equation of the regression line is
= 199.535x + 56.036.

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 Solution: Finding the
Equation of a Regression Line
To sketch the regression line, first choose two x-values between the
least and greatest x-values in the data set. Next, calculate the
corresponding y-values using the regression equation. Draw a line
through the two points. Notice that the line passes through the
point (x, y) = (2.29, 512.97).

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 Example: Using Technology to
Find a Regression Equation
Use a technology tool to find
the equation of the regression
line for the Old Faithful data.

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 Solution: Using Technology to
Find a Regression Equation

From the displays, you

can see that the
regression equation is
= 12.481x + 33.683.

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 Example: Predicting y-Values
Using Regression Equations
The regression equation for the gross domestic products
(in trillions of dollars) and carbon dioxide emissions (in
millions of metric tons) data is ŷ = 199.535x + 56.036.
Use this equation to predict the expected carbon dioxide
emissions for the following gross domestic products.
(Recall from section 9.1 that x and y have a significant
linear correlation.)
1. $1.2 trillion dollars
2. $2.0 trillion dollars
3. $2.6 trillion dollars
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 Solution: Predicting y-Values
Using Regression Equations
To predict the expected carbon dioxide emissions,
substitute each gross domestic product for x in the
regression equation. Then calculate .
1. = 199.535x + 56.036 = 199.535(1.2) + 56.036 =
295.478
When the gross domestic product is $1.2 trillion, the
predicted CO2 emissions are 295.478 million metric
tons.

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 Solution: Predicting y-Values
Using Regression Equations
To predict the expected carbon dioxide emissions,
substitute each gross domestic product for x in the
regression equation. Then calculate .
2. = 199.535x + 56.036 = 199.535(2.0) + 56.036 =
455.106
When the gross domestic product is $2.0 trillion, the
predicted CO2 emissions are 455.106 million metric
tons.

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 Solution: Predicting y-Values
Using Regression Equations
To predict the expected carbon dioxide emissions,
substitute each gross domestic product for x in the
regression equation. Then calculate .
3. = 199.535x + 56.036 = 199.535(2.6) + 56.036 =
574.827
When the gross domestic product is $2.6 trillion, the
predicted CO2 emissions are 574.827 million metric
tons.

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