GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND ITS IMPACT TO POPULATION

THE CONTEMPORARY WORLD

World population growth
The growth of world population over the last 200 years has been spectacular and it has not
stopped yet. From 1950 there was a population explosion and the total of 6 billion people on
Earth was reached in 1999. Exponential growth is the term used to describe such a rapid
increase.

Although there is some evidence that the rate of growth is at last beginning to slow down,
the world’s population continues to grow because the majority of countries have higher
birth rates than death rates, leading to natural increase.
 GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY
Demography- The statistical study of the human
population.

The demography studies the ff:

1.Population size- the number of people in a country, a
state, a city, a region or the world at a given time.
2. Population Distribution- geographic distribution, such as
among states or between rural and urban areas.
3.Population structure- age and sex composition.
4.Population Characteristics- education, income, labor
force participation, marital status.
Population Key terms

Crude birth rate- the number of live births per 1000 population per year.

Crude death rate- the number of deaths per 1000 per year.

Exponential growth- a pattern where the growth rate constantly increases- often shown as a J-curve shape.

Life expectancy- the number of years a person is expected to live, usually taken from birth.

Natural increase- birth rate higher than death rate: birth rate minus death rate.

Natural decrease- death rate remains higher than birth rate: death rate minus birth rate

Natural change- the difference between birth and death rate, expressed as a percentage

Annual population change- the birth rate minus the death rate plus or minus migration.

Migration- the movement of people either into or out of an area.

Replacement rate- a birth rate high enough for a generation to be the same size as the one before it.

Zero growth- a population in balance. Birth rate is equal to death rate, so there is no growth or decrease.
Birth rates
The average birth rate in the rich, industrialised countries is around 12-13 per
1000; in poor developing countries it is about 26-27 per 1000. There tends to
be a general relationship between birth rate and level of economic
development- the more economically developed the country, the lower its
birth rate.

Birth rates in all European countries are low. In contrast, many countries in
Africa and the Middle East have birth rates well over 40 per 1000.
Death rates
Unlike birth rates, death rates are similar between rich and poor countries; the world
average for both is between 9 and 10. During the second half of the twentieth century,
death rates fell everywhere, due to the spread of medical knowledge and improvements
in primary and secondary healthcare.
Primary healthcare- preventing disease e.g. by immunisation
Secondary healthcare- treatment of illnesses by doctors and nurses.

Countries with death rates above 20 per 1000 are now quite exceptional. Countries in
southern Africa are badly affected by the spread of HIV/Aids, unable to afford the anti-
viral drugs. Sierra Leone was wartorn for many years and Zimbabwe is in economic
meltdown with severe food shortages. Here trend towards lower death rates has been
reversed.
It is estimated that by 2050 the global population will be
about 9 billion. The map shows their projected distribution. It
looks strange because the countries have been drawn in
proportion to their estimate populations.

Look at the size of Africa and Asia- it is thought that, by 2050,

62% of all people will live in Africa, and South and East Asia.
 What is the demographic
transition model?
Learning Objective:
1) To know how countries pass through different stages of population growth as
shown in the five stages of the Demographic Transition Model (birth rate, death rate
and natural population changes) and how it changes population structure
2) To understand the impact of increasing urbanisation, agricultural change,
education and the emancipation of women on the rate of population growth.

Afghan nomads- stage 2

Rainforest tribes, Ecuador- stage 1
A lot of countries have similar patterns of population change over time so they devised
the Demographic Transition Model.

• Demographic- is to do with population or people

• Transition- means change
• A model is a simplified version of something that happens in real life

The model has worked quite well for countries that have gone from a rural, poorly
educated society to an urban, industrial, well-educated one. So it fits what happened in
the UK, the rest of Europe, and other richer countries like Japan and the USA. But
poorer countries might not follow the same pattern.
 The demographic transition model (DTM)

High High
fluctuating
Early expanding Late
expanding
Low Decline
Starter
fluctuating

Natural Birth rate

increase in Total population
Natural population
decrease in (BR> DR)
population
( BR< DR)

Death rate

Low
1) How has the UK’s
Modernisation/ economic
population changed
development
over time?

2) Where would these statements fit on the DTM?

• The church no longer needs a team of full-time grave diggers
• The family has just buried their fifth of 12 children
• Families are very big and children have to share rooms
• The town is proud of its new sewerage system
• The retirement age is going up and people have to work longer
• Very few children know their grandparents
 The demographic transition model (DTM)

High High Early expanding Late Low Decline

fluctuating expanding fluctuating

Birth rate
Natural Total population
Natural increase in
decrease in population
population (BR> DR)
( BR< DR)

Death rate

Low
Modernisation/ economic
development

The demographic transition model (DTM) describes

how the population of a country changes over time.
It gives changes in birth and death rates, and shows
that countries pass through five stages of population
change.
 The demographic transition model (DTM)

High High Early expanding Late Low Decline

fluctuating expanding fluctuating

Birth rate
Natural Total population
Natural increase in
decrease in population
population (BR> DR)
( BR< DR)

Death rate

Low
No countries in Stage 1, but
some tribes in Brazil’s
rainforests. UK was stage 1
before 1760.
Stage 1 (high fluctuating)- high birth and death rates that fluctuate. The
population remains stable but low.
Birth rate is high because:
- There is a lack of birth control
- Women also marry young
- Children and need to work in fields to support the family’s income
Death rate is high because:
- disease, war, famine, lack of clean water and medical care
 The demographic transition model (DTM)

High High Early expanding Late Low Decline

fluctuating expanding fluctuating

Birth rate
Natural Total population
Natural increase in
decrease in population
population (BR> DR)
( BR< DR)

Death rate

Low

Countries like Nepal and
Afghanistan are in Stage 2
Stage 2 (early expanding)- high birth rate but falling death rate.
The population increases rapidly.
Birth rate is high because: (same reasons as in stage 1)
Death rate falls due to:
- Improved medicine
- Cleaner water and improved sanitation
- More and better food
 The demographic transition model (DTM)

High High Early expanding Late Low Decline

fluctuating expanding fluctuating

Birth rate
Natural Total population
Natural increase in
decrease in population
population (BR> DR)
( BR< DR)

Death rate

Low
Stage 3 (late expanding)- birth rate declines rapidly while death rate falls
slowly. Population growth slows down. Reasons for falling birth rate include:
- Fewer people are farmers who need children to work
- Birth control is now available
- Number of infant deaths are falling
Egypt is in Stage 3 along with
- Women are staying in education longer and marrying later
India, Kenya and Brazil- most
Death rate still falling- for the same reasons as in stage 2
countries at lesser stages of
development.
 The demographic transition model (DTM)

High High Early expanding Late Low Decline

fluctuating expanding fluctuating

Birth rate
Natural Total population
Natural increase in
decrease in population
population (BR> DR)
( BR< DR)

Death rate

Low

Most developed countries e.g.
most of Europe and USA are in
Stage 4
Stage 4 (low fluctuating)- low birth rate and low death rate, both
fluctuate. Population growth is small but the population remains high and
stable while fertility continues to fall.
There are significant changes in personal lifestyles. There is increased
access and demand for luxuries like holidays and material possessions so
less money is available for having children. There are more women in the
workforce, with many people having high personal incomes and more
leisure interests. Also they are not needed to work for the family. People
are now having the number of children they want.
 The demographic transition model (DTM)

High High Early expanding Late Low Decline

fluctuating expanding fluctuating

Birth rate
Natural Total population
Natural increase in
decrease in population
population (BR> DR)
( BR< DR)

Death rate

Low
Only recognised in recent years in
some western European countries
and highly developed rich ones e.g.
Japan, Italy, Germany.
Stage 5 (natural decrease)- a later period, during which the birth rate is
very low and goes below the death rate
Reasons for the low birth rate:
• a rise in individualism, linked to emancipation of women in the labour
market
• greater financial independence of women
• concern about the impact of increased population numbers on
resources for future generations
• a rise in the concept of childlessness, as they are expensive to raise and
many people have elderly dependents so have no kids
 The demographic transition model (DTM)

High High Early expanding Late Low Decline

fluctuating expanding fluctuating

Birth rate
Natural Total population
Natural increase in
decrease in population
population (BR> DR)
( BR< DR)

Death rate

Low
Stage 5 (decline)
Reasons for the low birth rate:
• an increase in non-traditional lifestyles, such as same sex relationships
• the death rate remains steady or slightly increases as there are more
elderly people (ageing population) so more people may die of old age
despite advances in health care.
Major factors affecting world population growth

Changes to farming method

If people rely on farming, and there is little technology, they often have large families to
provide extra workers. As technology increases, and countries develop, fewer people are
employed in farming and the need for large families declines.

Urbanisation
As farming methods change, and fewer people are needed to work on the land, many rural
people move to urban areas to work. They need fewer children there, so they have smaller
families.

Education and women

As society and economy develop, women tend to stay in education longer. This means they
get married and start having children later, and usually have fewer children as a result.
Educated women also know more about birth control, and so can limit their families more
effectively.
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