Rahul Kumar Jaiswal

Scientist
National Institute of Hydrology, RC Bhopal
WALMI Campus, Bhopal
E-mail: rkjaiswal_sagar@yahoo.co.in,
jaiswal.nihr@gov.in
Phone: 9425655193

Training Course on
Advance Hydrology
Jan 6 to 10, 2020, Jaipur
 Climate Change and its causes
 Significant variation in the mean state of climate or its
variability, which otherwise constant over an extended
period of time (decade or longer).

Changes in:
Sun’s output
Earth’s orbit
Drifting continents
Volcanic eruptions
Greenhouse gases
 IPCC
 The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) is
the leading international body
for the assessment of climate
change. It was established by
the
United Nations Environment P
rogram (UNEP)
and the
World Meteorological Organiza
tion (WMO)
in 1988
 Constituted to provide the
world with a clear scientific
view on the current state of
knowledge in climate change
and its potential environmental
and socio-economic impacts.
 Currently 195 countries are
members of the IPCC.
Some of the findings of Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal

• Greenhouse gases due to which the mean global surface

temperature may increase by 1.40C to 5.80C from 1990 to
2100 (Hamid et al, 2013) and sea level by 28 to 43 cm
(IPCC 2007).
• Many small glaciers may disappear due to continuing
retreat of glacier.
• Increase in temperature may likely to degrade the
quality of water in many parts of the world.
• The changing climate likely to increase the magnitude
and frequency of floods & droughts
Effects on Temperature Regime
Global surface Mean Temperature Anomalies
Effects on precipitation
Effects: Snow and Ice in Glaciers
1900 2008

Grinnell Glacier, Glacier National Park

1900 and 2008
Identification of Climate change
Inclusion of Trend in Climatic Parameters

Occurrence of Extreme Events

 Tests for Trend Detection
Mann Kendal’s Test
 This test has been recommended by WMO for public application (Mitchell et
al., 1996).
 In this test, each value in the series is compared with others, always in
sequential order. The Mann Kendal’s statistic (Z) can be written as
 Tests for Trend Detection
Sphearman Rho’s Test
As per this test, If there is no trend and all
observations are independent, then all rank
orderings are equally likely.
In this test, the difference between order and rank
(di) for all observations x1, x2, x3, ……xn can be used to
compute and Spearman’s ρ, variance Var(ρ) and test
statistic (Z) using following equations.

Null hypothesis is tested considering statistic is normally

distributed
 Extreme Events: Rainfall Indices
Number of Rainy Days (RD)

Maximum one-day rainfall (RX1D)

Maximum 5-days rainfall (RX5D)

Heavy precipitation days (RX7.5cm)

Very heavy precipitation days (RX12.5cm)

Moderate wet days (R75P)

Very wet days (R95P)

Simple intensity daily index (SDII)

Extreme Indices : Temperature
1-Day Maximum Temperature

Very Hot Days (Max Temp > 45 Degree Centigrade)

Hot Days (Max Temp > 35 Degree Centigrade)

Very Hot Nights (Min Temp > 25 Degree Centigrade)

Hot Nights (Min Temp > 20 Degree Centigrade)

Cold Nights (Min Temp < 10 Degree Centigrade)

Steps to Cope up the Impact of Climate Change
Mitigation
To reduce concentration of greenhouse gases
Reduce burning of fossil fuels
Use solar, win and hydro power for electricity
 For Mitigation, 129 countries have signed Paris agreement
(www.unfcc.com)
Adaptation
Develop and plan individual, society, country and
continental level efforts
Assessment of future climate and plan with modelling
approach and Scenarios based Planning
 develop plan which cope up the effect of climate change
How Climate may affect Hydrological cycle in Watershed?
 Climate change makes extreme
hydrological events more severe
and more frequent at unexpected
times
 Change in total amount of
precipitation and its magnitude
 Impact on regional water resource
affecting river flows water supply
 Change in floods and droughts
situation
 Likely to aggravate water scarcity
condition
 High risk of Violent conflicts
Methodology for Impact Assessment

Climate change projection with the help of GCMs

With the help of GCMs, future climate can be
projected based on different concentration of CO2
Downscale climate projection with downscaling
technique (mainly precipitation and temperature)
Use downscaled climatic parameters in hydrological
modelling for assessment of change of water
availability
Use model like SWAT based on SCS CN method
Use soil erosion prediction model for assessment of
stressed areas under climate change
Use USLE or RUSLE model
Impact on Watershed

4
Work flow for assessment of impact of climate
change on water resources in watershed
PROJECTING CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER
RESOURCES
Climate change projections Topography, land use/ land
(precipitation, temperature, cover,
radiation, humidity) Soil characteristics and other
catchment data

downscaling

Hydrologic model

Possible future scenario at watershed scale

Stream flow- flow duration
curve,rainfall,evapotranspiration,
crop water demand, Soil moisture,infilteration,
groundwater recharge etc.
Problems of Climate Projection and Impact Assessment
Deep uncertainties of climate projection
No surety about future development
Uncertainties of climate modelling
Uncertainties of downscaling
Downscaling techniques
Uncertainties of Hydrological Modelling
Simplification of hydrological processes
Parameters uncertainties
Input and output uncertainties
Processes modelled but not present in model
Processes present but not known to modeller
One certainty is that our current trajectory of greenhouse
gas emissions will lead to considerably more warming.
What Next ?
Global Surface Average Temperature

Historical

RCP2.6

RCP8.5
Temperature (oC)

RCP8.5
RCP6.0
RCP4.5
RCP2.6
1950 2000 2050 2100
 Projected change in temperature and See level
Projection case Change in temperature (oC) Range of sea level rise at
Best estimate Likely change 2090-99 with respect to
1988-99 (m)

B1 scenario 1.8 1.1-2.9 0.18-0.38

A1T scenario 2.4 1.4-3.8 0.20-0.45
B2 scenario 2.4 1.4-3.8 0.20-0.43
A1B scenario 2.8 1.7-4.4 0.21-0.48
A2 scenario 3.4 2.0-5.4 0.23-0.51
A1F1 scenario
Variables Scenario 4.0 2.4-6.4
2046-64 0.26-0.59
2081-99
Mean Range Mean Range
Global mean rcp2.6 1.0 1.4-1.6 1.0 0.3-1.7
Surface rcp4.5 1.4 0.9-2.0 1.8 1.1-2.6
Temperature
Change (deg. rcp6.5 1.3 0.8-1.8 2.2 1.4-3.1
Cent) rcp8.5 2.0 1.4-2.6 3.7 2.6-4.8
Global Mean rcp2.6 0.24 0.7-0.32 0.40 0.26-0.55
Sea Level Rise rcp4.5 0.26 0.19-0.33 0.47 0.32-0.63
(m)
rcp6.5 0.25 0.18-0.32 0.48 0.33-0.63
rcp8.5 0.30 0.22-0.38 0.63 0.45-0.82
Prediction/Projection of Climatic Parameters
Climate projection may be defined
as the response of climate system
subjected to future emission/
aerosol concentration/radioactive
forcing often determined with the
help of climate models
GCMs are numerical
representation of climate system
based on physical, chemical and
biological properties of its
components, their interaction and
feedback processes and accounting
for all or some of its known
properties
 Problems with GCMs Data
 GCMs provide quantitative estimates of future
climate change that are valid at the global and
continental scale and over long periods (Crane et
al., 1998).
Can simulate large scale circulation pattern
well(e.g., pressure and geopotential heights)
Do not reproduce well non-smooth fields such as
precipitation.
 The spatial resolution of GCMs is generally quite
coarse, with a grid size of about tens of thousands
of square kilometres in size (Tripathi et al., 2006).
Needs Downscaling
Downscaling
Downscaling Techniques
 Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM)

 The SDSM can develop multiple, low cost scenarios

of daily surface weather variables under present
and future climatic forcing.
 key steps are required to perform the task of daily
weather downscaling and forecasting.
 Quality control and data transformation
 Selection of downscaling predictor variables
 Model calibration
 Weather generation
 Data analysis
 Graphical analysis
 Scenarios generation
Screenshot of SDSM Model
Supply Management

In order to manage supplies, the following

options can be used
•Construction of new storages structure
•Inter-Basin Transfers (Interlinking of Rivers)
•Ground Water Recharge
•Watershed Development
•Repair, rejuvenation and restoration of old
water bodies
•Concept of khet ka pani khet me, gaon ka pani
gaon me
Demand Management
Water Use Efficiency
Efficient Water Distribution Network
Equitable Water Distribution
Participatory Water Management
Cropping Pattern
Realistic Water Rates
Recycle and Reuse of Waste Water
Pollution Control, Waste Water Treatment
Conjunctive Use of Surface and Ground Water