Historical Analysis of Pakistan’s

Geopolitical Significance and World

Politics

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Thrust Lines
of 2 Session
nd

 Geopolitics and World Order.

 Post partition Cold War and Significance of
Pakistan.
 Role of Pakistan in US-China
Rapprochement in 1970s.
 1979 Afghan War and Pakistan.
 Post 9/11 and Pakistan.
 China as an emerging power and Pakistan.
 World transiting to Multipolarity – Pakistan.

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Contemporary Geopolitical Issues

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 Geopolitics and World Order

• Complex and interrelated concepts that involve the study of

international relations, the distribution of power, and the structure of
the global system. An overview of these terms is:
• Geopolitics: The study of the political, economic, and strategic interactions between
states and other actors on the global stage. It focuses on the geographical factors that
influence international relations, such as the location of countries, access to
resources, and territorial disputes. These factors largely shape a nation's foreign
policy and its relationships with other countries.
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 Geopolitics and World Order

• World Order: It refers to the prevailing system or structure of international

relations that governs how states and other international actors interact
with each other. It encompasses the rules, norms, and institutions that guide
these interactions. The concept of world order evolves over time and is often
characterized by power dynamics, alliances, conflicts, and efforts to
maintain stability and cooperation among nations.

• Some key points related to geopolitics and world order include:

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 Geopolitics and World Order
• Power Dynamics: Geopolitical analysis involves assessing the distribution of power
among states. Historically, this has been characterized by the balance of power theory,
where states seek to prevent any one power from becoming too dominant.
• International Institutions: Organizations like the United Nations (UN), the World Trade
Organization (WTO), and regional bodies play a role in shaping and maintaining world
order – the Tools to shape the World Order.
• Geopolitical Conflicts: Disputes over territory, resources, and ideological differences
lead to conflicts and impact the global order. Examples include territorial disputes like
Russia-Ukraine Conflict, South China Sea and conflicts in the Middle East.

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 Geopolitics and World Order
• Globalization: The process of globalization has interconnected economies, cultures, and
societies around the world with both positive and negative effects on world order.
• Power Shifts: The global balance of power can shift over time due to factors like
economic growth, technological advancements, and changes in international alliances.
The rise of emerging powers, such as China, has the potential to challenge the existing
world order.
• Multilateral Diplomacy: Diplomatic efforts, negotiations, and multilateral agreements
are essential tools for managing conflicts and maintaining world order. Diplomatic
dialogue helps prevent escalation into armed conflicts.

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 Pressing Global Issues

• Great Power Competition: Analyze the competition and tensions between

major powers like the United States, China, and Russia.

• Global Governance and International Organizations: Discuss the roles and

challenges faced by organizations like the United Nations, NATO, and the
World Trade Organization.

• Climate Change and Environmental Security: Explore how climate change

is impacting geopolitics, resource scarcity, and migration patterns.
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 Pressing Global Issues

• Cybersecurity and Technology: Examine the role of technology,

cyber warfare, and digital diplomacy in contemporary geopolitics.

• Regional Conflicts: Discuss ongoing regional conflicts and crises,

such as those in the Middle East, Ukraine, or the South China Sea.

• Global Health Challenges: Consider the geopolitical implications of

pandemics and global health crises, like COVID-19.

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 Case Studies

• The Ukraine-Russia conflict

• Hegemonic Rise of India-Canada & India Diplomatic Standoff

• The South China Sea territorial disputes

• The impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on global geopolitics &
IMEC, G-20

• The dynamics of the Israel-Palestine conflict

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Emerging Trends in Contemporary Geopolitics

• The emerging trends in contemporary geopolitics (e.g., multipolarity,

regionalism, economic interdependence).

• Consider potential future scenarios and their geopolitical implications.

• Highlight the importance of studying and engaging with contemporary

geopolitics for future leaders and policymakers.

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 Post Partition Cold War and Pakistan’s Role

• Alignment with the United States: Pakistan initially aligned itself with the Western bloc,
led by the United States, in the early years of the Cold War. Pakistan became a member of
the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) and the Central Treaty Organization
(CENTO) in the 1950s. These alliances were aimed at containing the spread of
communism and countering Soviet influence in the region.

• Strategic Location: Pakistan's geographical location made it strategically important

during the Cold War. It shared borders with the Soviet Union (through its proximity to
Afghanistan) and China. The United States saw Pakistan as a key ally in its efforts to
contain the spread of communism in Asia.
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 Post Partition Cold War and Pakistan’s Role
• Role in Afghan Conflict: Pakistan's significance during the Cold War grew
significantly during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. The U.S., the
Western countries, military and financial support to the Afghan Mujahideen,
fighting against the Soviet forces.

• Nuclear Proliferation: Pakistan’s pursuance of nuclear program, remained a

source of concern for the United States and the international community.
Pakistan's acquisition of nuclear weapons added a new dimension to its
importance in global geopolitics.

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 Post Partition Cold War and Pakistan’s Role
• Shifts in Alliances: Pakistan's alignment with the US remained a central feature of its
foreign policy for much of the Cold War. However, there were also periods of strain in
U.S.-Pak relations, such as during the 1965 and 1971 Indo-Pak wars. Moreover, after the
end of the Cold War, Pakistan's foreign policy shifted, due to its relations with China.

• End of the Cold War: The end of the Cold War in the early 1990s had significant
implications for Pakistan. The dissolution of the Soviet Union and the reduced
importance of the region in global geopolitics led to changes in Pakistan's foreign policy
priorities. Pakistan's support for the Taliban in Afghanistan and its focus on regional
dynamics became more prominent.

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 Pakistan’s Role in 1970 US-China Rapprochement
Key Aspects of Pakistan’s Role in this process:

• Secret Diplomacy: No formal diplomatic relations between US and China in the

early 1970s, and both countries were interested in exploring a channel of
communication. Pakistan, offered to serve as an intermediary.

• Henry Kissinger's Visit to China: In July 1971, the U.S. National Security Advisor,
Henry Kissinger, secretly visited Beijing via Pakistan. The Pakistani government
helped arrange and keep this visit confidential for improvement of relations
between the US and China.

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 Pakistan’s Role in 1970 US-China Rapprochement
Key Aspects of Pakistan’s Role in this process:

• Nixon's Visit to China: In February 1972, President Nixon made a historic visit to China, which
was a significant milestone in the process of rapprochement.

• United Nations Role: Pakistan also played a role at the UN in facilitating the China's
representation as People's Republic of China.

• Normalization of Relations: The groundwork laid by Pakistan's diplomacy and the meetings
between Kissinger, Nixon, and Chinese leaders ultimately led to the formal normalization of
relations between the United States and China in 1979. It allowed the U.S. to exploit the Sino-
Soviet split, improving its position in the global balance of power.

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 1979 Afghan War and Pakistan
Overview of How War Impacted Pakistan:

• Refugee Crisis: The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979 led to a

massive influx of Afghan refugees into Pakistan to the tune of millions, putting a
strain on the country's resources and infrastructure.

• U.S. and Saudi Support: Pakistan became a key player in the Afghan resistance
against the Soviet Union. The United States and Saudi Arabia, along with other
Western and Arab countries, provided significant financial and military assistance
to the Afghan Mujahideen through Pakistan.

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 1979 Afghan War and Pakistan
Overview of How War Impacted Pakistan:
• Training and Support: Pakistan played a crucial role in training and supporting Afghan
Mujahideen.
• Diplomatic Efforts: Pakistan was actively involved in diplomatic efforts to garner international
support for the Afghan resistance.
• Regional Implications: The Afghan War had a profound impact on Pakistan's regional dynamics.
It strained Pakistan's relations with Soviet Union, Soviet-backed Afghanistan, and with India,
which supported the Afghan communist government.
• Militant Groups and Radicalization
• The multifaceted effects on Pakistan, shaping its domestic politics, foreign policy, and security
landscape for years to come.

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 The History of Geopolitics and Pakistan
• Post 9/11 Era and Pakistan
• China as an Emerging Power and Pakistan
• Multipolar World Order and Pakistan

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Geostrategic Significance of Pakistan

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 Pakistan lies at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia,
Middle East, China and Indian Ocean Region ’
Source: Russian Institute for Strat Studies http://en.riss.ru/analysis/18882/

Due to geo-strategic and geo-economic importance,

it is termed as ‘The Bridge State’

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Modelski Model of World Leadership

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Cycles of World Leadership

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Modelski Model of World Leadership

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1.Cycles of world leadership are dynamic—they rise and fall.
2.Each cycle of world leadership is comprised of four phases
(pg 199):
1. Phase of global war
2. Phase of world power
3. Phase of delegitimation
4. Phase of deconcentration

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↑
Emergence (Rise) Dominance (Peak) Challenges (Decline) Transition New Emergence
|______________|_________________|______________________|___________|
Early Phase Height of Power Decline Transition Next Rise

Time →

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Cyclical Nature of World Leadership-Modelski Model

• The five labeled phases of each cycle are described below:

• Emergence (Rise): A new world power begins to rise in influence and power.
• Dominance (Peak): The emerging power reaches its peak of dominance on
the global stage.
• Challenges (Decline): The dominant power faces challenges and begins to
decline in power and influence.
• Transition: A period of transition and power shifts between the declining
power and the emerging contender.
• New Emergence: A new world power emerges, starting a new cycle.

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• As you can see, the chart shows the rise and fall of different world leaders, such
as Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands, Britain, and the United States. It also shows
the approximate duration and timing of each phase of the cycle. For example, the
United States entered the phase of world power after World War II, and is
currently in the phase of delegitimation, facing challenges from other rising
powers such as China and India. The chart also suggests that the next phase of
global war may occur around 2030, according to Modelski’s predictions.

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Ten Leading World Economies

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INTERESTING LINKAGE BETWEEN
GEOPOLITICS AND GEOECONOMICS

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Geopolitics & Geoeconomics

• During first 4 decades, Pakistan’s

average Growth Rate was 6%, whereas
Indian was less than 4%.
• 1961-1990 Period
• In 1970s, India’s GDP per capita was $
226 whereas Pakistan’s was $ 112.

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Geopolitics & Geoeconomics

• Post Cold War, India became the fastest

growing economy in the world. It
happened only in 3 decades.
• 1991-2010 Period
• India today is 5th largest economy in the
world.
• In 1970s, India’s GDP per capita was $
226 whereas Pakistan’s was $ 112.
• In 2022, Pakistan stands at $ 1400,
while India at $ 2490. India has huge
foreign reserves of $ 554 billion, vis a
vis Pakistan’s only $ 8 billion.
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