STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

Estimation of Parameters

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 LESSON TWO

UNDERSTANDING CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ESTIMATES FOR THE POPULATION MEAN

Lesson Objectives:

At the end of this lesson, you are expected to:

 define confidence

 Define confidence interval;

 Apply the normal curve concepts in computing the interval estimate; and

 Compute confidence interval estimates.

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 In chapter 1, you learned about parameter

values. You also learned about the normal curve

distribution and the corresponding . Answer the

following to check your readiness for this lesson.

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Quiz 2

ENTRY CARD

Choose the letter of the best answer for each of the following.
1. What do you call a continuous, symmetric, and bell-shaped distribution of
a variable?
a. graph b. pie chart c. normal curve d. line graph
2. What values are indicated at the base of a normal curve?
a. b. c. d.
3. The area under the curve is:
a. 1 b. 0.99 c. 0.95 d. 0.5
4. In a standard normal distribution, the mean is ____________ and the standard
deviation is ______________.
a. 1, 0 b. 0, 1 c. 1,1 d. 0,0

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Quiz 2
ENTRY CARD

A. Choose the letter of the best answer for each of the following.
5. The expression is referred to as:
a. Mean of the sampling distribution
b. Standard deviation of the raw score distribution
c. Mean of the sampling distribution of proportions
d. Standard error of the sampling distribution of means.
6. In a standard normal distribution, what percent of the area falls below the
mean?
a. 95% b. 90% c. 68% d. 50%
7. About what percentage of the area under the normal distribution lies
within 1 standard deviation below and 1 standard deviation above the
mean?
a. 68% b. 90% c. 95% d. 99%
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Quiz 2
ENTRY CARD

8. Under the standard normal distribution, what is the z-value that

corresponds to an area of 0.4750?
a. b. c. d.
9. The following statement is better known as _________________________.
As the sample size n increases, the shape of the distribution of the sample
means taken with replacement from a population with mean and standard
deviation will approach a normal distribution.
a. the Bayes’ Theorem
b. the Central Limit Theorem
c. the distribution
d. the distribution

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Quiz 2
ENTRY CARD
10. This consists of means derived from all possible random samples of
specific size obtained from a population.
a. A sampling distribution of sample proportions
b. A sampling distribution of sample variances
c. A sampling distribution of samples
d. A sampling distribution of sample means

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Quiz 2
ENTRY CARD
Answer Key
1. 6.
2. 7.
3. 8.
4. 9.
5. 10.

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 When we describe population values, we want to be
confident about our estimates. Other than the point estimate, we
can use a range of values. This range of values. Other than the
point estimate, we can use a range of values. This range of values is
called interval estimate. You will learn more about interval
estimate in this lesson.
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 Determining Weights in Kilograms
Material needed: Weighing scale
Suppose you want to know the “true” average weight of all the students in the
population where the students in this belong. We can increase the precision of our guess
by getting, as may random samples as we can from the population where the students
purportedly come from.
1. From five groups and name each Group A, Group B, Group C, Group D, and Group E.
Assume that these groups are random samples.

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Group Tasks:
2. Using weighing scale, find their weight of each group member carefully.
3. Compute the mean weight and the standard deviation of each group..
4. Compute the mean of the group means.
5. How would you describe your group based on the result of the computation?.
6. What is your estimate of the mean of the population where your group seems to belong?
7. Reflect on your estimation. Are you confident about it? To what extent are you confident?
Express your confidence as a percentage?

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 Another way of estimating a parameter is by using interval estimate.
An interval estimate, called a confidence interval, is a range of values that is used to
estimate a parameter. This estimate may or may not contain the true parameter value.
For example, the age of a beginning grade 1 pupil is any value between 67 years and 7
years.
In determining an interval estimate, a degree of confidence (expressed as a percentage
such as 95%) that the interval contains the true and fixed parameter is made. That is, if we
collect several random samples and then calculate a confidence interval from each sample,
these confidence intervals are constructed wide enough so that 95% of them contain the true
population parameter and 5% do not. The value 95% is also know as the confidence level.

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 The confidence level of an interval estimate of a parameter is
the probability that the interval estimate contains the parameter. It
describes what percentage of intervals from many different
samples contain the unknown population parameter. There three
commonly used confidence interval: the 90%, the 95%, and the
99% confidence intervals. Shorter intervals are more informative
than the longer ones. A short confidence interval can be obtained
by having a large sample or by using a lower confidence level.
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 Meaning of 95% Confidence
Group Tasks:
1. Refer to the result of the activity. With 95% confidence, each group determines an interval
estimate of the population mean weight where the members of the group belong.
2. Each group provides a copy of their interval estimate to the different groups.
3. On a clean sheet of papers, draw a vertical line. Label this Population Mean or simply .
4. Represent each group mean weight with a horizontal line segment.
5. Locate the five line segments about the mean.
6. Post the five figures on the board and discuss the findings.
7. What can you conclude about the estimation of the population mean?

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 In a similar manner, if a large number of random samples resulting in more
interval estimates were obtained from the population with mean where the students
belong, and our confidence is 95%, then 95% of these interval estimates will contain the
true population mean .
To illustrate further the idea of the interval estimate, let us use the figure below.
There are 10 random samples and there are 10 interval estimates from each sample.
These are shown under the heading, Confidence Interval. The parameter is the Population
Mean . The vertical line indicates the location of and the confidence intervals of the 10
samples are shown by the horizontal line segments. Note that some of these contain and
some do not contain it. I If there are more sample interval estimates and our confidence is
95%, in the long run, 95% of the sample confidence intervals will contain .
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 You have learned about the properties of the standard normal distribution in a previous chapter. We will apply
these concepts in estimating parameter values.
Recall that a standard normal distribution is a normal probability distribution with a mean of 0 and a standard
deviation of 1. At the horizontal base of the curve, we find the . The or the is actually the number of standard deviation
that a particular X value is away from the mean. The gives the area (to four decimal places) under the standard normal
curve for any from to . This table is also known as the .
The area under the curve is 1 or 100%. The proportion of the area between 1 standard deviation unit below
the mean and 1 standard deviation unit above the mean is approximately 68%. The middle 96% is the proportion of the
region above and below . These determine the 95% confidence interval estimates. Similarly, the middle 99% is the
proportion of the area bound by and . For another level of confidence interval, the corresponding can be found in the .
These are also called . They are also called . We also say that he standard normal z is the test statistic used to calculate
the interval boundaries.

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 A point estimate is a specific value of a population parameter.
The sample mean is the best point estimate of the population
mean.
An interval estimate is a range of values that may contain the
parameter of a population.

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 Estimates provide limited information. It does not tell much about the
possible size of the error. We supplement the information the information by
stating that the sample is a random sample. In our example, we have a
random sample whose minutes and whose standard deviation is
3.41minutes. The sample standard deviation can serve as the estimate of .

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 How confident are we about our estimation? In order to feel confident
about our estimators as approximations of the true parameter values, we take
as many random samples as possible from the population of interest, compute
the sample statistics and then carefully compare the results. Then, we formulate
conclusions and based on these, we make particular decisions. A good method
of estimating a population parameter is described as one where the estimates
from many samples are equal to the true population parameter. In such case, we
can say that the sample statistic is an unbiased estimate. If across many
samples, a sample statistic departs from the true population value, then the
estimate is said to be biased.
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 A good estimator has the following properties:
1. When the mean of a sample statistic from a large number
of different random samples equals the true population
parameter, then the sample statistic is an unbiased
estimator of the population parameter.
2. Across the many repeated samples, the estimates are not
very far from the true parameter value.
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 The following figures illustrate bias where the vertical line represents the
population mean and the dots represent sample means from the sample
distribution.

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 Coco Juice
Study the following situation and do the task. Then, answer the following questions or supply the missing
information.
Mr. Santiago’s company sells bottled coconut juice. He claims that a bottle contains 500 ml oif such juice. A
consumer group wanted to know if his claim is true. They took six random samples of 10 such bottles and obtained the
capacity, in ml, of each bottle. The result is shown as follows.
Sample 1 500 498 497 503 499 497 497 497 497 495
Sample 2 500 500 495 494 498 500 500 500 500 497
Sample 3 497 497 502 496 497 497 497 497 497 495
Sample 4 501 495 500 497 497 500 500 495 497 497
Sample 5 502 497 497 499 496 497 497 499 500 500
Sample 6 496 497 496 495 497 497 500 500 496 497

Assuming that the measurements were carefully obtained and that the only kind of error present is the
sampling error, what is the point estimate of the population mean?

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Solution:
Method 1: Using the EXCEL Program
A sample of the worksheet for Sample 1 is shown as follows.

A B C D
1 500
2 498
3 497
4 503
5 499
6 497
7 497
8 497
9 497
10 495

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Steps:
1. Encode the data in the cells proceeding from cell A1 to cell A10.
2. Select the data.
3. Click the insert . The Insert Function dialog box will appear.
4. In the Insert Function dialog box, click the arrow to select a category. A drop window will appear. In this window,
click Statistical .
5. In the Insert Function dialog box, there is another window labeled Select a function. Click AVERAGE. At the bottom
of the box, click OK.
6. Another dialog box will appear. This is the Function Arguments box. There are two smaller windows in the box,
labeled number 1 and number 2 in the window Number 1, Write A1:A10. The computer reads the numbers encoded
in Column A Row 1, Column A row and so on to Column A Row 10.
7. Copy the Formula result in the dialog box. For the encoded data of sample 1, the result is 498. Then click OK.
8. Repeat the procedure for the other samples.
9. Compute the mean of the means called overall means. This is the point estimate of .
Alternatively, in the MS Excel Program, the values may simply encoded one after the other for Row 1 to Row
60. Next, select the entries. Then repeat steps 3 to 7. With the proliferation of statistical software, you can choose the
most convenient model to compute statistical values for statistical analysis.

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Solution:
Method 2: Manual Estimation of the Population Mean
When dealing with a large number of values, the mean of small samples may be
obtained. These means constitute a sampling distribution of means. To find the overall mean,
simply find the sum of the mean values. Then, divide the sum by the total number of sample
means.
For example, let us consider the six sample rows of the 60 bottles as excellent
samples. Next , we compute each row mean.

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 Coco Juice Revisited
1. Proceeding in the same manner, compute the mean for each remaining
row.
2. Compute the sum of the measures.
3. Enter the values in the following table.
4. Divide this sum by the number of means. The result is called overall
mean.
5. The overall mean is the point of estimation of the population mean. What
is the this number?
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 Sample Row Sum of Scores Mean
1
2
3
4
5
6
Overall Mean

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 More on Coco Juice
Activity
1. Look at the bottles of coconut juice as consisting of 10 columns and 6 rows.
2. Compute the means of the column samples.
3. What is the overall mean? This value is also an estimate of the population mean .
Sample Sample Sample Sample Sample Sample Sample Sample Sample Sample
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
500 498 497 503 499 497 497 497 497 495
500 500 495 494 498 500 500 500 500 497
497 497 502 496 497 497 497 497 497 495
501 495 500 497 497 500 500 495 497 497
502 497 497 499 496 497 497 499 500 500
496 497 496 495 497 497 500 500 496 497

The mean for column sample 1 is:

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 Computing More Means
1. Compute the remaining column means.
2. Compute the mean of the means.
3. Enter your values in the following table.
4. Based on the 10 random samples what is the point estimate of the population.
Column Sum of Scores Means
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Overall Mean
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 Based on the ten random samples, the point estimate of the population parameter is ___________ ml.
Notice that regardless of how we randomly select our samples, thus forming a sampling
distribution of means, the mean of the means is equal to the population mean. We now feel confident in
saying that if more random samples are obtained from the population and the means of these random
samples are computed, then mean of the means of the samples is the point estimate of the population
mean.

Finally, we interpret the result by saying that the claim is different from the computed value. That
is, the computed mean __________ based on the sample is (equal to, slightly less than, slightly more than) the
claimed value of 500 ml.

Now, based on the sample result, on the sample result, what action (e.g. patronage of the product)
would you make? Write this on a piece of paper. Discuss your answer with your classmates.

Other than the mean, we also compute the standard deviation to describe the dispersion of the
scores in a distribution. The standard is the square root of the variance. S, we compute the variance first.
Then, we extract the square root of the result to get the value of the standard deviation.

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 Mathematical Journal
Number provide efficient descriptions. What is their advantage over
verbal description? Explain your thought in writing.

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Seatwork Chapter 4 Lesson 1:
B. Find (a) the point estimate of the population parameter , and the (b) standard
deviation for the scores in a long test in Statistics and Probability.

78 75 86 82 70 85 83 86
80 92 82 85 80 88 84 86
90 88 90 78 83 90 86 84
75 85 77 88 85 90 85 83
83 86 83 84 86 92 85 80
76 88 79 84 80 88 80 88
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Assignment Chapter 4 Lesson 1:
A. Fill in the blank with the correct information to make meaningful statements.
1. A is a single value used to estimate a population parameter.
2. A range of values called is also used to estimate a population
parameter .
3. Among the three values of central tendency, the best estimator of the population parameter
is the .
4. A good estimator has no .
5. To obtain a mean from a sample, the sum of the sample values is divided by .
6. The standard deviation is a measure of .
B. Find (a) the4 point estimate of the population parameter , and the (b) standard deviation for
the scores in a long test in Statistics and Probability.
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Assignment Chapter 4 Lesson 1:
B. Find (a) the point estimate of the population parameter , and the (b) standard
deviation for the scores in a long test in General Mathematics.

70 67 58 60 69 62 70 62
69 59 77 59 52 79 59 59
80 42 60 59 68 40 68 68
56 66 60 40 57 57 70 71
72 54 52 67 62 59 71 72
81 49 45 78 78 69 68 69
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