The Science of Climate change, Hydrological

Cycle and Weather/climate in Pakistan

Dr. Shahid Amjad
General Science BED 101
Institute of Business Management (IoBM)
Water Cycle
• The water cycle has no starting point, but we'll begin in the oceans,
since that is where most of Earth's water exists.
• The sun, which drives the water cycle, heats water in the oceans.
Some of it evaporates as vapor into the air; a relatively smaller
amount of moisture is added as ice and snow sublimate directly from
the solid state into vapor.
• Rising air currents take the vapor up into the atmosphere, along with
water from evapotranspiration, which is water transpired from plants
and evaporated from the soil.
• The vapor rises into the air where cooler temperatures cause it to
condense into clouds.
What have you heard?

m in g
Wa r
b a l Greenhouse
G as e s
G lo
Fossil Fuels Atm
o sph
eric
CO ) poll
i de (
2 u t io
D i ox n
ar bo
n Ice Cor
C e Reco
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Climate Change Atmospheric/Earth Science
Climatology Science of long term climatic events
What is Weather?

• Weather = all natural phenomena within the

atmosphere at a given time (hours to days)
What is Climate?
• Climate = the average and variations of weather over a
long period of time (~30 years)

Above: Global average for atmospheric

Weather and Climate
• Both weather and climate are the result of the interaction of several Earth systems:
• the movement of moisture in the water cycle that evaporates ocean water into the
air where it condenses into travelling clouds or storms that eventually cause rain or
snow;
• the movement of heat that begins at the sun-soaked equator and moves warm air
toward the north and south poles; the movement of the oceans that takes icy-cold
water from the poles to the tropics, warming or cooling the air above the water.
• These and many other factors, including greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,
combine to form the high and low pressure systems you hear about on the weather
report, and over time add up to the climate of the location you live in.
• To understand the complex interactions and patterns of weather and climate,
scientists collect as much observational data as they can on precipitation,
temperatures, humidity, and other atmospheric conditions. They then use that data
and the relationships between the different pieces to create computer models of
local, regional, or even global weather and climate.
The Climate System

Oceans Atmosphere
• The Earth has many
different systems that
interact with each
Ice other in different
ways.
Biosphere

Land
Global Warming and Climate Change
Connections
 Science of Climate Change:
What are Greenhouse Gases?
How do they cause warming?
How are humans affecting the climate?

UW Climate Impacts Group

What is the Greenhouse Effect?

• The term greenhouse is used in conjunction with the

phenomenon known as the greenhouse effect.
• 70% of energy our planet received from the sun drives the earth’s
weather and climate, as it heats up the earth’s /ocean surface;
while the rest is absorbed by clouds, oceans and land masses.
• In turn, the earth radiates 30% energy back into space;
• Some atmospheric gases (carbon dioxide, water vapor, and other
gases) trap some of the outgoing energy, retaining heat
somewhat like the glass panels of a greenhouse;
• Trapping heat is good to a certain extent (avg. Global temp. 14 C),
if no heat was trapped the avg. Global temp
-19 C).
• Thus the atmosphere has a big role for maintaining the right
temperature for sustaining life on earth
Most Important Greenhouse Gases
(The greenhouse effect is the rise in temperature on Earth as certain gases in the atmosphere trap energy.)

GHGs: Source Examples:

• Water vapor: H2O Oceans, Rivers, Plants, Soil
• Carbon Dioxide: CO2 Combustion, Respiration
Wetlands, Oceans,
• Methane: CH4
Biodegradation, Animals

PCC slide no. 034 http://www.for.gov.bc.ca

Source: U.S. EPA 2005
Earth’s Natural Greenhouse Effect

GHE#1 - natural
 Human-caused Global Warming
GHE#2 - humans
GHE#3 -The
text
science of global warming is based on well-
understood physical principles. There is NO
scientific debate about this!
Due to human activities, there are now 40% more
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere than there
were a few hundred years ago.
The Earth has already warmed as the
consequence of this, and scientists expect that
the next 20 to 100 years the world will warm a lot
more!
 What are the main indicators of Climate
Change?
• The US agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA), suggests
• 10 indicator,
• 7 indicators that would be expected to increase in a warming world.
While 3 indicators (Snow cover, glaciers, Sea ice) would be on the
decline.
 Based on comprehensive data from multiple sources, there are reportedly 10
measurable planet-wide features used to gauge global temperature changes.
The relative movement of each of these indicators proves consistent with a
warming world. Seven indicators are rising:
1. air temperature over land,
2. sea-surface temperature,
3. air temperature over oceans,
4. sea level,
5. ocean heat,
6. humidity and
7. tropospheric temperature in the “active-weather” layer of the atmosphere
closest to the Earth’s surface.
• Three indicators are declining:
1. Arctic sea ice,
2. glaciers and
3. spring snow cover in the Northern hemisphere.

“Glaciers and sea ice are melting, heavy rainfall is intensifying and heat waves
are more common. And, as the new report tells us, there is now evidence that
over 90 percent of warming over the past 50 years has gone into our ocean.”
Increased
Drought

IPCC Fourth Assessment Key Findings

Increased Hunger
and Poverty

IPCC Fourth Assessment Key Findings

Increased Storm
Frequency and Storm
Intensity

IPCC Fourth Assessment Key Findings

Sea Level Rise and Coastal
Flooding

IPCC Fourth Assessment Key Findings

Oceans
 Carbon dioxide acidifies
seawater
CO2 Atmosphere CO2

Ocean

“Calcium needed by organisms”

• CO2 and carbonate (which plankton use

to make shells) combine in the ocean.
• The ocean is already more acidic than it
was 50 years ago.

Source: Alfred-Wegener-Institut
SEM photograph of E. hux
Ocean Acidification; consumption of carbonate ions impede calcification.
Source: Pacific Marine Environment Laboratory, NOAA
Healthy Dying
Coral Coral
Forests
Tree Die-Off
 Grassland/rangeland Habitat Could Decline

59% Decline by 2100

Increasing Risk of
Catastrophic Fires
 Key Actions
3 Key Actions
1. Support the country
and national
legislation for CO2
reduction
2. Reduce our individual
and collective carbon
footprint
3. Support ongoing
conservation work
Enact Renewable Electricity
Standards (RES)
Plant Trees and Protect Native Forests
Educate Others
and Speak Up
Help educate
others by speaking
to school, civic,
business, health,
labor, religious,
agriculture, and
other groups
Make Use of the Media
• Write letters to the editor of
newspapers and magazines
• Start a global warming blog
• If you have a story angle,
talk with local reporters

Photo: Ian Britton

Impact of Climate Change on Pakistan
• Forecast models for climate change and increasing temperatures for
Pakistan predicts:
• increased flooding,
• rock avalanches in Northern areas,
• Disruptions in water resource as the Himalayan glaciers continue to melt.
• Floods exceeding design parameters could destroy the dams, barrages, and
other fixed-capacity irrigation infrastructure on which the country’s
agriculture depends.
• The risk of hunger will also increase because of declining crop productivity
owing to heat stress.
• Other areas of concern include:
i. the further intrusion of saline water along the Sindh coastal zone due to an
accelerated rise in sea level;
ii. more and stronger cyclones caused by rising sea surface temperatures
that will affect Karachi and other coastal settlements;
iii heat strokes brought on by summer temperature spikes; and
iv. the spread of disease vectors encouraged to breed in stagnant water
bodies during mild winters.
What’s Your Carbon Footprint?

https://www.conservation.org/carbon-footprint-calculator#/
https://www.conservation.org/carbon-footprint-calculator#/
https://www.conservation.org/carbon-
footprint-calculator#/
• Calculate your Carbon Foot print
https://www.conservation.org/carbon-footprint-calculator#/
• On average, every tree absorbs 0.07 tons of CO2 annually.
• Your footprint of 11.46 tons of CO2 requires 164 trees per year.
• What can you do to reduce your carbon Foot print.
• Solving climate change requires reducing carbon emissions. When you
offset your footprint, you neutralize your emissions by protecting
forests that absorb carbon from the atmosphere.