Components of Population Growth

MORTALITY RATES: CONCEPT , MEASUREMENT & TYPES

BY
SUHAIL WANI

FOR ANY QUERY

SWANI0845@GMAIL.COM
A sermon gone wrong ! Your take ?
 What is population?
• All the inhabitants of a country, territory, or
geographic area, total or for a given sex and/or age
group, at a specific point of time. In demographic
terms it is the total number of inhabitants of a
given sex and/or age group that actually live
within the border limits of the country, territory,
or geographic area at a specific point of time,
usually mid-year. The mid-year population refers
to the actual population at July 1st.
• Population Census is the total process of collecting, compiling,
analyzing and disseminating demographic, economic and social
data pertaining, at a specific time, of all persons in a country or a well-defined part
of a country.
• First Census (1881):
• Last census (2011)
• The decennial Census is conducted by the
Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, Ministry of Home
Affairs.
Example
• In India, on July 1, we had 100 male persons and 100 female persons
living in different states of India.
• So total population is 200.
• Male population is 100
• Female population is 100
Another example
• Age : <1, Age: 1-4, Age : 5-14, Age : 15-44, Age : 45-64, Age :65+
• 100 200 50 100 100 50
• Find population age wise and their percentage in total population?

• Calculation:
• %age of any age group = Population in that group/ Total Popln *1oo
• %age of <1 = 100/600 *100= ?
Can Anyone Explain Dependency Ratio?
• For example, assume that India has a
population of 1,000 people, and there are
250 children under the age of 15, 500
people between the ages of 15 and 64, and
250 people aged 65 and older. The youth
dependency ratio is 50%, or 250/500
How Population of a country
Changes
DEATHS, BIRTHS, EMIGRATION, IMMIGRATION
Deaths: Does it vary according to a country?
Births: Does it also vary as per country?
Immigration : Change of a persons residence to a new country
where they are not natives or possess citizenship.
A photo from the Rio Grande captures the tragic end for a father and
daughter , June 2019. How critical is immigration. Why to migrate?
Emigration: Leaving a person’s country of citizenship to settle
another country
Under The Indian Citizenship Act, 1955, Persons of
Indian Origin are not allowed citizenship of two countries.
If a person has ever held an Indian Passport and then
obtains the passport of some other country, they will be
required to surrender their Indian Passport immediately
after they gain nationality of the other country.
 Population growth Rate
• Percentage change in population during the specified time period.
• If population of India was 100 on July1, 2022 and it increased to 110 on July1,
2023
• Then , population growth rate =(
• = 110-100/ 100= 10%
• I hope it is clear by now what determines the population growth rate?
Why Population growth rate should be a concern?
• Provision of public services
• Education and Health Services
• Is high population inherently bad for a country?
• Public law and order
• Fiscal deficit ?
Mortality: Concept and measurement Indices
• Mortality
• Everyone of us has been born and everyone of us will die. This is a certainty.
No one escapes death. In fact, all species are born and all species die.
• But we humans are the only species to actually think about and
contemplate the act of dying
• Death will not occur at the same time for everyone. Some of us will die
sooner than others.
• On average, death will come earlier to males than to females.
• Earlier to members of racial and ethnic minority groups than to members
of the majority
• Mortality
• The measurement of mortality dates back to John Graunt (1620–1674) and his
analyses of the “Bills of Mortality”.
• . Mortality refers to the relative frequency of death in a population.
• For example, India has a total population of 100 in 2020 and 1o persons died in
2020. Death rate in India= 10/100*100= 10%
• In France population is 200 in 2020 and 15 people died in 2020.
• Death rate in France = 15/200 * 100= 7.5%
• Though France observes more deaths in absolute terms but in relative frequency of
deaths in France is lower as compared to India.
Demographers use two different concepts when referring to mortality,

•1. Life Span

• The numerical “age limit of human life”. The maximum number of
years an individual can live.
• demographers often use the “maximum recorded age at death” as an
accepted operational definition of the human life span
• The longest known and verified life span was 122 years and 164 days,
lived by the Frenchwoman Jeanne Louise Calment
• “I’ve been forgotten by (a good) God.”
2. Life Expectancy
• Life expectancy or expectation, which is the average expected
number of years of life to be lived by a particular population at a
given time.
• A baby born in the United States in 2006 had a life expectancy of
around 78 years. Compare these enviable life expectancies with those
of babies born in 2006 in Botswana or Lesotho (both countries in
southern Africa) who may expect to live on average only 34 and 36
years
• Why difference ?
• Life expectancy: How long you can expect to live.
• Longevity: How long you actually live past the average.
• Lifespan: How long you could potentially live.
• It’s confusing and obvious as to why people mix the terms up!
• The average life expectancy for a human is 72 years. If you celebrate your 73rd
birthday, you have a little bit of longevity, but nothing too impressive. Keep in mind
that an average would include people who died of very old age and people who died
in childhood. Depending on where you live and who you know, 72 doesn’t really
seem that old.
• Life expectancy keeps on going up to advancement of science.
• 1. Crude death rate: First measure of mortality
• crude death rate (CDR), is the number of deaths in a population in a given year
per one thousand members of the population.

• CDR = ∗ 1,000
• In 2004, in US total deaths were 2,398,343 and mid year population was
293,028,000.
• Therefore CDR= = ∗ 1,000 =
• Interpretation : This means that in the United States in 2004, there were just
over 8 deaths for every 1,000 persons in the population.
• In different countries of the world in 2006
ranged from lows of 1 in the United Arab
Emirates (UAE) and 2 in Kuwait to highs of
23 in Sierra Leone, Zambia, and Zimbabwe
and 22 in Angola and Afghanistan.
•Caution
• However, CDRs must be interpreted with caution. When CDR comparisons
are made between countries, differences are sometimes due to differences in
age composition. The fact that the UAE has a CDR of 1 and the United States
has a CDR of 8 means that there are eight times as many deaths per one
thousand population in the United States than in the UAE.
• Why is the CDR of the United States eight times
higher than that of the UAE? Why are there so
many more deaths per 1,000 population in the
United States than in the UAE? The main reason is
that the UAE is much younger in average age
than is the United States, and younger people
have lower death rates than older people. In other
words, countries with large proportions of young
people and small proportions of old people will
usually have lower CDRs than countries with small
proportions of young people and large proportions
of old people
 Regards
Suhail Wani
• Questions:
1. Anantnag recorded 100 deaths in 2020, and male population
of Anantnag is 500 and female population of Anantnag is 500
in 2020. Find crude death rate of Anantnag in 2020?

2. Kupwara recorded 100 deaths in 2020. Among the deaths, 50

were male persons. Also Male population of Kupwara in 2020 is
1000 and total population of Kupwara in 2020 is 2000. Find
Crude Death rate among males and females in Kupwara in 2020?
1. India has a total population of
100 in 2020. Those aged 15 to 64 is
50. Those aged less than 15 is 25
and aged above 64 . Find
dependency ratio? Calculate youth
dependency ratio ?
Crude Death Rate in India( National Average). Your take ?
 Problems with Crude Death Rate

1. Crude death rate comparison among

countries with different age composition !
Why is the CDR of the United States eight times higher than that of the UAE? Why
are there so many more deaths per 1,000 population in the United States than in the
UAE? The main reason is that the UAE is much younger in average age than is
the United States, and younger people have lower death rates than older people. In
other words, countries with large proportions of young people and small proportions
of old people will usually have lower CDRs than countries with small proportions of
young people and large proportions of old people
2. CDRs also should not be used to compare the death experiences of the same
population at different points in time, particularly if the population’s age
structure has changed over time.
• For example in 1960 CDR of US was 9, and in 1990 it fell to 8. It seems that death
experience of the nation has fallen by a small margin due to improved medical
facilities.

• But over the thirty years, median population increased from 29 to 33, population
became older , which means in reality death experience has reduced by more
amount which CDR cannot capture.
• . Much of the reduction in the mortality experience was offset by the fact that the
population became older.
• Concept of Standardized Death Rate
 Natural Rate of population Change/Growth

• Subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate provides the rate
of natural increase, which is equal to the rate of population change in the
absence of migration
The mortality rate of under-five children among Dalit and tribal
communities is 76 per cent higher than the rest of the population
Seven Indian states have very high
maternal mortality. These are
Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya
Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Odisha
and Assam. 'Very high' MMR means
130 or more maternal deaths per
100,000 live births
 Why the name Crude Death Rate
• The CDR is referred to as crude because its denominator is comprised of the entire
population, the members of which are not all equally at the risk of experiencing
death.

• This is because the risk of death varies by age, sex, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic
status, and many other characteristics.

• Thus, although it is true that all persons in the denominator of the CDR will
eventually experience death, they are not all equally exposed to the risk of death
Any Solution?
 Age-specific Death Rate
• ASDRs are sometimes referred to as “M” rates.
• The ASDR (or nMx) is the number of deaths to persons in a specific age group
per 1,000 persons in that age group. Its formula is

• nMx = ∗ 1,000

• n is the width of the age group and x is the initial year of the age group.
• For instance, the ASDR for age group 15–19 is referred to as 5M15
Age Curve of Mortality
• We have noted that death rates vary by age.
• They are high in the initial year of life, then drop precipitously, and
begin increasing again at around age 40 or so (although in societies
highly affected by HIV/AIDS, they tend to increase more so at the
young adult ages).
• ASDRs are very low for young persons after the first year or so of life.
When we plot a schedule of nMx values, we produce what
demographers refer to as the age curve of mortality.
Question : Find ASDR
Infant mortality rate
• The infant mortality rate (IMR) the most common measure of infant death, is
the number of deaths in a year to persons under age 1 per 1,000 babies born in the
year.
• It is expressed as
• IMR= *1,000

• Infant mortality rates of 200 or more per 1,000 births were the rule as late as 1800,
even in the countries of the presently developed world. This means that around one
of every five babies born were dead before reaching their first birthday.
• The model that explains why countries go through a period of rapid population
growth is called the ‘demographic transition
 Data on IMR
• Infant mortality in China in the early 1900s was likely around 300. Indeed, China
probably did not reduce its IMR countrywide to around 200 until the founding of
the People’s Republic in 1949.
Cultural Practices
1. In Korea, for instance, even to this day, a small feast is prepared on the hundredth
day after a baby is born. Rice, red bean cakes, and wine are served. This day was
originally celebrated as a feast in honor of the child’s surviving the first few
months of life, the most difficult period of time for survival.
2. In ancient times, the child was not given his/her name until the hundredth-day
celebration
3. The countries with the lowest IMRs in the world in 2006 were Iceland, Singapore,
and Sweden, all at 2 infant deaths per 1,000 live births, and Finland, Norway, and
Japan, all at 3. IMRs of 2 and 3 are about as low as will ever be attained
Neonatal mortality rate
• The neonatal mortality rate (NMR), deaths to babies of 28 days of age or less per
1,000 live births.

• NMR= *1,000
• Neonatal deaths include more than half of the approximately 7.5 million infant
deaths that occur each year in the world
Post-neonatal mortality rate
• The post-neonatal mortality rate (PMR), deaths to babies of 29 days to 1 year of
age per 1,000 live births.
• Deaths in the post-neonatal period, as well as in
the first few years of life, are often due mainly to
exogenous causes, such as infectious disease,
accidents, and injury. In countries experiencing
declining death rates, their PMRs tend to decline
much more rapidly than their NMRs. The main
reason is that “improved living standards, better
health care, and public health programs have
greater effects on exogenous causes of death than
on endogenous causes
Stillbirth rate
• Demographers are also interested in the rate at which stillbirths(also known as
miscarriages or fetal deaths) occur. These are fetuses that are not born alive
• A fetus may die prior to the onset of labor, that is, in utero, because of pregnancy
complications or various maternal diseases. Or a fetus may be alive at the onset of
labor but die during the process and, thus, emerge from its mother in a dead state.
Perinatal mortality rate
Thank You
Maternal Mortality Rate
Observe that the MMR is multiplied by a constant of 100,000 because since
1940, maternal deaths have become increasingly rare in the developed world
• Maternal mortality ratio

• the maternal mortality ratio (MMR), gauges the extent to which

mothers die immediately before, during, or after giving birth because of
a problem or problems associated with the pregnancy or childbirth
• The WHO (1982) defined a maternal death as “the death of a woman
while pregnant or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy,
irrespective of the duration or site of pregnancy, from any cause related
to or aggravated by the pregnancy or its management, but not from
accidental or incidental causes”
• The MMR refers to deaths in a year to women dying as a result of
1. complications of pregnancy,
2. childbirth, and
3. the puerperium (6 weeks, that is, the condition of the woman immediately
following childbirth, usually ending when ovulation begins again), per 100,000
births occurring in the year.
• Sometimes the deaths (the numerator) are referred to as deaths due to
puerperal causes.
India and the World
• The MMR of India has declined by 10 points. It has declined from 113 in 2016-18
to 103 in 2017-19 (8.8 % decline)
Most of India’s neighbors — Nepal (186), Bangladesh (173) and Pakistan (140) —
have a higher MMR. However, China and Sri Lanka are way ahead with MMRs of 18.3
and 36 respectively.
The number of States that have achieved the SDG target has now risen from five to
seven -- Kerala (30), Maharashtra (38), Telangana (56), Tamil Nadu (58), Andhra
Pradesh (58), Jharkhand (61), and Gujarat (70)
• The two most important factors leading to maternal deaths are age and parity (the
number of times a woman has given birth; it also refers to birth order, for example,
a second-born child, who would be a second-parity child). Very young women and
older women are more likely to die during pregnancy or childbirth than are women
in their twenties and thirties. High-parity women and women with short birth
intervals are also at high risk:
Life Table
• In actuarial science and demography, a life table (also called a mortality
table or actuarial table) is a table which shows, for each age, what the probability
is that a person of that age will die before their next birthday ("probability of death
"). In other words, it represents the survivorship of people from a certain
population.[1] They can also be explained as a long-term mathematical way to
measure a population's longevity.[2] Tables have been created by demographers
including John Graunt, Reed and Merrell, Keyfitz, and Greville.[
• It summarizes the mortality experience of a population and yields information
about longevity and life expectation.
• An abridged life table is a life table calculated for 5 year age
groups rather than for single year age groups
Life Table: Concept and construction
• Column 1 refers to the age intervals of each group. The age groups shown here refer
to the range of years between two birthdays. To illustrate, the age group 5–9 refers to
the 5-year interval between the fifth and the tenth birthdays.

• Column 2 reports the ASDRs (i.e., the nMx rates) for each age group. These are the
only empirical data that are needed to build a life table.
• 5M10= ?

• Since the only purpose of the nMx data in column 2 is to develop the nqx rates, some
life tables do not include the nMx rates, and thus only have seven and not eight
columns.
• Column 3 reports for each age group the probabilities of dying; these
probabilities are designated as nqx.
The nqx values represent the probabilities that persons who are alive at the
beginning of an age interval will die during that age interval, before they reach
the start of the next age interval.
• nQx= ndx/Ix = column 5/ Column 4
• The nqx values represent the probabilities that persons who are alive at the
beginning of an age interval will die during that age interval, before they
reach the start of the next age interval.
• The difference has to do with their denominators, the denominator of the
nMx rates is the midyear population, whereas the denominator of the nqx
rates is the population alive at the beginning of the age interval.
• The nqx column has a probabilistic interpretation:
• nqx ~ Probability that a person of age x will die in the
age interval (x, x + n)

Column 5/Column 4
5q20= 5d20/I20= 225/98983 =
A graph of nqx across the life span is given in Figure 3.1.1. A graph of age-specific death rates would have a similar shape
• Column 4 , Ix, shows, of the starting 100,000 newborns in the life tables ( called radix
of the life table , usually set at 100,000) the number living at the beginning of the age
interval ( The number surviving to the beginning of the age interval) .

• For example, I10= 99,249 which means 99,249 people out of 100,000 new borns are
alive till attaining the age of 10.

• ” It may be calculated by subtracting the ndx value (column 5) from the lx value in
the age interval immediately preceding the one being calculated. For example, of
the 99,249 people alive at the beginning of the age interval 10–14 (i.e., l10), 75 of
them die during the age interval between their 10th and 15th birthdays (i.e., 5d10).
Thus, for the next age group, those ages 15– 19, there are 75 fewer people; therefore,
the value of l15 is 99,174 (i.e., 99,249 minus 75).
The lx column also has a probabilistic interpretation:

Proportion of the newborns surviving to that age

These proportions are called survival probabilities. A plot of the survival probabilities across the life span is given in Figure 3.1.2
• . Column 5 shows the number of people who die during a particular age
interval and is designated as ndx. It is arrived at by multiplying lx by nqx.
Thus, for the number of people who die during the age interval of 40–44, the
5d40 value is 849; this equals the 5q40 value of 0.0087 times the l40 value of
97,607.

Because everybody eventually dies, the sum of the number of deaths in all the age intervals will be equal to the radix
of the life table, i.e.
Different source table
• Column 6 reports for each age interval the total number of years lived by all persons
who enter that age interval while in the age interval. It is designated as nLx and is
often referred to as “the big L column” of data
• Column 7 reports the total number of years lived by the population in that age
interval and in all subsequent age intervals; this column of data is designated as Tx.
To determine the values of Tx for each age interval, one sums the nLx from the
oldest age backwards, using this formula:
Lets try few numericals
• We should be aware of the fact, however, that when considering life expectation at
birth, e0, we need to be cognizant of the importance of infant
mortality. When e0 is low, as in Lesotho or Botswana, for example, a major reason
is the very high value for infant mortality
• Whereas John Graunt is referred to by most demographers as the founder of
demography, many refer to Alfred Lotka (1880–1949) as the person most responsible
for the development of modern demography.
• Lotka used life tables in the development of his stable population theory. The
concept of a stable population was actually first set forth by Leonhard Euler ([1760]
1970), but its current development stems from the work of Lotka, who first
introduced the concept in a brief note in 1907.
• Later, F. R. Sharpe and Lotka (1911) proved mathematically that if a population that
is closed to migration experiences constant schedules of age-specific fertility and
mortality rates, it will develop a constant age distribution and will grow at a constant
rate, irrespective of its initial age distribution