PRESENTATION

ON
FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS
BY
ASRAFUL MANDAL
GEO145016
5YEAR INT. M.SC IN GEOGRAPHY
10TH SEMESTER

DEPARTMENT OF GEOGARAPHY
ALIAH UNIVERSITY
KOLKATA
 What is flood frequency analysis

Flood: situation having excessive stage of a river generally above full river level

Frequency: Number of time that a given magnitude of event may occur in given
returned period.

Analysis: procedure adopt for evaluation.

Reason of flood is magnitude and probable frequency of
recurrence of floods is necessary:
1)Economical planning and safe design of:
Barridge
Dams levees
Culverts
Sewage disposal plants,
Other structure located along rivers and streams
2)The effective management of
flood plains and flood defence scheme
3)To predict the possible flood magnitude over a certain time period.
4)To estimate the frequency with which floods of a certain magnitude may occur.
Knowledge of flood frequency is necessary also to flood insurance
and flood zoning
i. Either overdesign or under design of structure involves excessive costs on a long time
basis. The initial cost of bridge that is designed to pass only 5-year flood may be small,
but the cost of rebuilding it at an average 5year interval would be large. A bridge at the
same site which is built to pass the 100-year flood might be extremely costly.
Intermediate design would provide a bridge at that site for the lowest average annual cost

ii. For the flood frequency analysis use past flood data.

iii. The discharge records or past data collected by the geological survey and other federal,
state, and private agencies.

iv. Flood frequency analysis uses historical records of peak flows to produce guidance about
the expected behavior of future flooding determination of the design flood.
There are two methods of collecting the flood peak data:
1)annual flood series

2)partial-duration data series

An annual flood is defined as the highest momentary peak discharge in a

water year. The use of only one flood in each year is the most frequent
objection to the use of annual floods.

Partial duration data series are used to estimate flood frequency analysis that
have a return period of 5 years or less.it is especially useful for streams that
have multiple high-flow periods in the same year.
For the evaluation of flood frequency can be classified into two
approaches:

1)statistical approach estimate flood quantiles by applying probability

models.

2)The design storms methods uses the rainfall-runoff model.

 In statistical method are found that: Probability method, Weibull Method,
Hazen method, Califormia method, and Gamble method.

 From this all method Weibull formula is most commonly used.

 A flood frequency curve can be constructed by plotting a graph of discharge

versus probabilities.

 This can easily be accomplished provided you have a data set of annual peak
discharge measured over a number of year.

 We need to calculated the chronological order of each of the floods. Start by

ordering our data according to the magnitude of the flood, from largest to
smallest.

 Number each of the floods in ordering, starting with the largest flood as
number I
We find the probabilities of flood by equation is – P=m/(n+1)

Where, p=probability

m=the number we calculated

n=number of year in the record

Plot corresponding discharge and probabilities.

Draw a best fit line between the data set. The resulting line is the flood frequency
curve.
The likelihood of a particular event is calculated from its flood frequency as
follows:

F=P×100

=[m/(n+1) ×100

For example, the chance of a 50year flood occurring this year is:

1/50=0.02

=0.02×100

=2% chance
Flood recurrence interval and discharge:
 The objective of the frequency analysis is to determine the magnitude of the
flood which will be equaled or exceeded once in a specific period of years this
specific period of years is known as the recurrence interval.

 Recurrence intervals or return period is the time period over which is likely
that a particular magnitude flood will occur.

 Based on considerations of probability, several methods have been used to

compute the recurrence interval.
 For example, if town has a flood recurrence interval pf 100 years, the town on
average will flood one time every year.

 Calculate the recurrence interval, which is the number of times in your record
that a flood of a given magnitude occurred.

 Recurrence interval, which is the reciprocal of the annual exceedance

probability.

 The formula for recurrence interval is:

T=1/P

=(n+1)/m
THANK YOU