ADBM STATISTICAL

TECHNIQUES
Kuda Sibanda
 Probability
■ Basically, probability refers to the likelihood with which
something will occur
 Probability
■ Probabilities are based on how frequently something has happened
before, and therefore, used to determine the probability with which
it is likely to re-occur.
■ To demonstrate, suppose that 5 out of 7 people drink coffee,
simply stated, that is 5 7 = 0.7142, or 71.42% of people drink
coffee
■ As demonstrated, using decimals and proportions, proportions are
easy to discern and facilitates comparisons.
■ When we ascribe a number to the probability with which
something is likely to occur, then we give a measure of confidence
in our assertion.
■ The higher the probability, the more the confidence
 Probability
■ If we are 100% sure or confident in the outcomes, we will ascribe
the probability a 1.
■ Alternatively, if we are utterly sure that the event will not occur,
we ascribe the probability a value of 0.
■ Between 0 – 1, the stronger the evidence, the closer to 1 the
ascribed probability will be.
 Probability
■ When discussing probabilities, the probability with which
something will occur is denoted a p, whereas the probability of
that thing not occurring is denoted using q.
 Probability
■ When discussing probabilities, the probability with which
something will occur is denoted a p, whereas the probability of
that thing not occurring is denoted using q.
■ When we are interested in achieving a particular outcome (p),
when we achieve that outcome, it is known as a success.
■ Sometimes, the probability of success does not hinge on a one-shot
attempt at achieving it, but rather a succession of events.
■ For example, the probability of throwing two heads in three tosses
of a coin.
■ In this case, the number of possible outcomes could be HHT, TTH,
HTH, THT, HHH, TTT, HTT, THH.
■ In other words, there are eight possible outcomes when flipping
our coin thrice.
■ The probability is thus 3 8 = 37.5%.
 Probability
■ sometimes there are more than two possible outcomes (binomial
distribution).
■ If we think of the example of rolling a dice – there are six possible
outcomes.
■ If we think of the probability of selecting a Spade from a pack of
cards, we know there are 52 cards, four suites, which makes it 13
cards for each suite.
■ Therefore, the probability of selecting a Diamond from a pack of
cards is as follows:
Probability
 Probability
■ When you have independent events, the law of conjunctions apply,
and you multiply the probabilities.
■ In other words, you are looking at the probability of two jointly
occurring events i.e. a and b.
■ Alternatively, when you are looking at the probability of either of
two independent events, you will concern yourself with the law of
disjunctions, and add the probabilities i.e. a or b.
■ For example, the probability of drawing two Diamonds in two
successive draws.
■ When we replace the card after having drawn it (sampling with
replacement) then the probability will be:
Probability
 Probability
■ However, when we are looking at disjunctions, we are trying to
estimate the probability of either of two independent events
occurring.
■ The events need to be mutually exclusive (by belonging to one
category it automatically excludes belonging to another)
■ So, for example if you were to try estimate the probability of
drawing a heart or a diamond in two successive draws, the
probability would be:
Binominal Distribution
Binominal Distribution
Binominal Distribution
Binominal Distribution
Binominal Distribution
Binominal Distribution