Numerical Methods

Using Nonlinear Least Squares Method to Predict

Drilling Performance Based on Learning Curve Equation

Presented by: Yasser Ammar

Supervisor: Dr. Omar Falih
Introduction:

 Least-Squares Method (LSM): is a statistical method that is practised to find

a regression line or a best-fit line for the given pattern. This method is
described by an equation with specific parameters.

 There are two basic categories of least-squares problems:

• Ordinary or linear least squares.
• Nonlinear least squares.
Uses of least square method:

 Porosity and Permeability Prediction: LSM is used to interpret seismic data

and well logs to predict porosity and permeability.

 Reservoir Pressure Estimation: By analyzing pressure measurements at

different wells.

 Fracture Characterization: LSM aids in identifying mapping fractures.

LSM
 The method of least squares assumes that the best fit curve of a given type is
the curve that has the minimal sum of deviations.
 F(a,b)= a+bX
a= is the Intercept of the straight line.

b= is the Slope with y-axis.

LSM
In addition, another parameter employed to check the quality of equation of the
straight line formulated by least squares method is average absolute percentage
error (AAPE) defined by:

 Where:
yai= the measured values
yci= the calculated values using the equation of the straight line formulated by
least squares method
LSM
 The curve equation is a nonlinear function that relates the drilling time per unit
length (T) to the cumulative drilled length (L). It has the form:

Where:
T= Drilling time per unit length.
L= The cumulative drilled length.
a & b= are constants that depend on the drilling conditions and equipment.
LSM
For Example, using the least square method to estimate the drilling performance
based on the learning curve equation.

-Suppose we have the following data of T and L for a drilling operation:

L (m) T (min/m)
100 12.5
200 10.2
300 8.9
400 8.1
500 7.5

X, is the length
Y, is the time
LSM
we can take the logarithm of both sides of the equation and obtain:

We can use a calculator or a spreadsheet to find the sums and products of log T
and L

L (m) T (min/m) log L log T log L * log T (log L)^2

100 12.5 2 1.09691 2.193820026 4

200 10.2 2.30103 1.0086 2.320819249 5.294739

300 8.9 2.477121 0.94939 2.351754164 6.13613

400 8.1 2.60206 0.908485 2.36393252 6.770716

500 7.5 2.69897 0.875061 2.361764102 7.284439

Sum 12.07918 4.838446 11.59209006 29.48602

LSM
 The value of a=1.735
 The value of b= -0.317
a= = 5.670
b= -*(-0.317)= 0.317
So, the equation will be: T= 5.67*

Tai Tci AAPE

12.5 13.12758 0.010041
10.2 10.53286 0.006527
8.9 9.259797 0.008085
8.1 8.450997 0.008667
7.5 7.87262 0.009937
SUM= 4.325635%

For 600m the Time is 7.46 (min/m).

APPLICATIONS:
 In petroleum engineering, LSM can be used for diverse applications, including:

 Oilfield Modeling: LSM can be used to create 3D models of oilfields. These

models can be used to understand the distribution of oil and gas in the field.

 In 2010, Chevron used LSM technology to create a 3D model of an oil field in

the North Sea. This model helped to increased production by 100 million barrels
of oil.
APPLICATIONS:
 Oil Prospecting: LSM can be used to analyze geological data to look for
potential oil and gas sites.

 In 2015, ExxonMobil used LSM technology to explore for oil in the

northeastern Jordan region, which led to the discovery of a new oil
field.
APPLICATIONS:

 Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) Design: LSM optimizes EOR techniques like
waterflooding and miscible.

 In 2017, BP used LSM technology to improve oil production from an oil field in
the North Sea. This data was used to determine the best drilling locations and
production techniques, resulting in increased production by 50 million barrels of
oil.
CONCLUSION:
 Overall, LSM technology is a powerful tool that can be used to improve
many aspects of petroleum engineering.

 The least squares method can be used to analyze geological data to

identify potential sites for oil and gas.

 The least squares method can be used to create statistical models of

the distribution of oil and gas in oilfields.

 The least squares method can be used to optimize oil and gas
production from existing oil fields.
References:
 Using Nonlinear Least Squares Method & Techniques to Predict Drilling
Performance Based on Learning Curve Mustafa Amer; Beshir Aman; Asem
Radhwi Paper presented at the SPE Symposium Leveraging Artificial
Intelligence to Shape the Future of the Energy Industry, Al Khobar, Saudi
Arabia, January 2023.
Paper Number: SPE-214466-MS Published: January 19 2023.

 EngineersDaily/ Principle of Least Squares Applied to Surveying.

(
https://www.engineersdaily.com/2018/01/principle-of-least-squares-applied-to-surve
ying.html?m=0
)
THANK YOU