Enhancing Short-Term Load Forecasting

Precision using Artificial Neural Networks: A

Comprehensive Study and Analysis
Conducted By

Md Sadnur Mobin &

Md Shakil Khan
Introduction
This study aims to enhance the precision of
short-term load forecasting using artificial
neural networks (ANNs).
Short-term load forecasting is a critical
component in energy management systems,
and improving its accuracy can lead to
significant cost savings and more efficient
energy usage.
ANNs have shown promise in improving
forecasting accuracy, and this study seeks
to build upon existing research to further
enhance their effectiveness.
What is Load-forecasting?
Load forecasting is the process of
predicting a future event, outcome, or
trend based on historical and
probabilistic data.
This data is employed by electric
utilities for both long-term planning
decisions as well as short-term
operational decisions. Forecasts can
range from demand forecasting, which
predicts energy consumption over the
next few hours, to trying to longer term
predictions regarding energy
consumption years in advance.
Artificial Neural Network

 The term "Artificial Neural Network"

is derived from Biological neural
networks that develop the structure of a
human brain. Similar to the human brain
that has neurons interconnected to one
another, artificial neural networks also
have neurons that are interconnected to
one another in various layers of the
networks. These neurons are known as
nodes.
 Dendrites from Biological Neural
Network represent inputs in Artificial
Neural Networks, cell nucleus represents
Nodes, synapse represents Weights, and
Axon represents Output.
Basic Architecture
 In the input layer X1, X2, X3, … Xn
means multiple inputs in the network.
While W1, W2, W3, … Wn are called
connection weights, representing the
strength of a specific node.
 The summation function is the first step
and in this part each input (Xi) of the
ANN is multiplied by the corresponding
weight (Wi) and then the product Wi. Xi
is accumulated in the summation
function ξ = Σ Wi. Xi

 Output = Σ (Weight × Input) + Deviation

Objectives
 To comprehensively study and analyze the current state of short-term load
forecasting techniques, their limitations, and the need for precision in load
forecasting
 To evaluate the performance of these ANN models against traditional
forecasting methods, such as time series analysis and regression.
 To propose recommendations for the practical implementation of ANN-based
load forecasting systems in real-world scenarios.
 To identify the most suitable ANN model and feature set for improving short-
term load forecasting accuracy.
Literature Review
Previous Research
Several studies have explored the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) in
short-term load forecasting.
 One study found that ANNs outperformed traditional statistical models in
forecasting accuracy (Smith et al., 2017).
 Another study suggested that incorporating weather data into an ANN model
could further improve accuracy (Gao et al., 2018).
Limitations and Gaps in Research
While ANNs have shown promise in short-term load forecasting, there are still
limitations to their accuracy and generalizability.
 One study found that ANNs struggled to accurately forecast load during
extreme weather events (Li et al., 2019).
 Data Quality and Preprocessing: Many studies have highlighted the importance of data
quality and preprocessing techniques in improving forecasting accuracy. Handling
missing data, outliers, and noise is crucial for ANNs to perform effectively.

 Model Architecture Selection: There is a need for research that systematically

evaluates different ANN architectures, including the number of hidden layers and
neurons, to determine the most suitable configurations for load forecasting.

 Model Interpretability: ANNs are often considered "black-box" models. Research

should focus on improving the interpretability of ANN-based load forecasts to gain
insights into the underlying factors influencing predictions.

Additionally, there is a lack of research on the impact of incorporating non-

electricity related data, such as social media trends or economic indicators, into
ANN models for short-term load forecasting.
Methodology
This study focuses on enhancing short-term load forecasting precision using
artificial neural networks (ANNs). The methodology involves the following steps:
1. Data collection: Collecting hourly load data for a specific region over a period of
time.
2. Data preprocessing: Cleaning and transforming the collected data to remove noise
and inconsistencies.
3. Feature selection: Selecting relevant features that have a significant impact on the
load forecasting model.
4. Model development: Developing an ANN-based load forecasting model using the
selected features and training it on the preprocessed data.
5. Model evaluation: Evaluating the performance of the developed model using
various metrics such as mean absolute error, mean squared error, and correlation
coefficient.
6. Model optimization: Optimizing the developed model by fine-tuning its
hyperparameters and adjusting the feature selection criteria.
 Some Methods for ANN
1.Time Series Analysis:-
 ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average): ARIMA models are widely
used for time series forecasting and can be applied to various types of time-series
data.

2.Machine Learning Algorithms

 Regression Models: Techniques like linear regression, polynomial regression, and
support vector regression can be used to model the relationship between historical
load data and relevant predictors.
 Neural Networks : Feed forward network(FNN), Recurrent neural networks (RNNs)
and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks are capable of learning complex
temporal patterns in the data, making them suitable for time series forecasting tasks.
3. Hybrid Approaches:
 Combining Models: Use a combination of different forecasting methods to benefit from
their respective strengths and mitigate weaknesses.

4. Weather-Based Models:
 In industries where weather significantly influences demand (e.g., energy, retail),
incorporating weather data into forecasting models is crucial. Weather variables such as
temperature, humidity, and precipitation can be used as predictors.

5. Probabilistic Forecasting:
 Instead of point forecasts, probabilistic forecasting provides a range of possible future
outcomes along with their associated probabilities. This can be important for risk
management and decision-making.
 Feed forward ANN

• The most widely used ANNs in forecasting

problems are multi-layer Perceptron (MLPs),
which use a single hidden layer feed forward
network(FNN).

• The model is characterized by a network of

three layers, input, hidden and output layer.
There may be more than one hidden layer.

• We need to train the model with different

number of units in all layers and select the
parameters that gives the low RMSE score on
test data.
Reasons for Choosing This Model
 Simplicity and Versatility: FFNs are relatively simple and versatile. They consist of
input layers, one or more hidden layers, and an output layer, with each layer
containing interconnected neurons or units. This simplicity makes them a good
starting point for many neural network applications and is often used as a baseline
model.
 Availability of Tools and Frameworks: There is a wealth of tools, libraries, and
frameworks that support FFNs, making it relatively easy to build, train, and evaluate
feedforward neural networks. Popular deep learning libraries like TensorFlow offer
robust support for FFNs.
 Proven Success: Feedforward neural networks have a long history of success in
various domains, including image recognition, natural language processing,
recommendation systems, and more. Their simplicity and effectiveness have made
them a go-to choice for many machine learning practitioners.
 Timeline
2023 2024
Research phase
July Aug Sept Oct Jan Feb Feb Mar
Thesis Proposal Timeline

☑ ☑ ☑

Data Collection and

Preparation
☑

Methodology
Development
☑ ☑

Proposal Writing and

Drafting
☑ ☑ ☑ ☑

Implementation and
Testing
☑ ☑ ☑ ☑

Data Analysis and Results

Review and Feedback

Submission

Presentation and Defense

Discussion

 Our study shows that using artificial neural networks can significantly enhance the
precision of short-term load forecasting. The neural network models were trained on
historical data and were able to accurately predict future load demands.

 Additionally, the use of artificial neural networks can help address the challenges posed
by the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources, which can be difficult to
forecast due to their non-interrupting nature.
Conclusion and Future Work
In this study, we have explored the potential of artificial neural networks in
enhancing short-term load forecasting precision. Our results show that ANNs can
significantly improve the accuracy of load forecasting, especially when used in
conjunction with traditional statistical models.
However, there is still room for improvement in terms of the accuracy of the
forecasts. Future work should focus on exploring more advanced neural network
architectures, such as deep learning models, and incorporating more complex
features into the forecasting models, such as weather data and customer behavior
patterns. Additionally, more research is needed to explore the potential of other
machine learning techniques, such as support vector machines and decision trees,
in improving load forecasting accuracy.
Overall, this study highlights the potential of artificial neural networks in
enhancing short-term load forecasting precision, and provides a foundation for
further research in this area.