Foreign Policy of Selected Powers

Foreign Policy of US, China,

Russia, and India.
 Think critically….!

 Chinese Rise has prompted US to balance China?

 What is concept of Polarity?

 Which age do we live in?

 Foreign Policy Objectives (general)

1. Protection of Nation’s Physical, Political, and Cultural

Identity/territory.

2. Comprising goals which may help in realizing primary goals.

3. It continue to vary.
US supremacy: Economy (GDP)

 US 19.3 Trillion (2017)

 China 11.19 Trillion (2017)
 Japan 4.93 Trillion
 Germany 3.8 Trillion
 France 2.8 Trillion
 UK 2.61 Trillion
 Russia 1.6 Trillion (2017)
 EU 16.518 Trillion (2017)
Per Capita Income of the major powers

According to “tradingeconomics.com” statistics;

 USA 52,194 US$ (2016)

 Russia 11,099 US$ (2016)

 China 14, 400 US$ (2016)

Military Expenditures in Bil. US$

 USA 610 in (2016)

 China 216 (2016)
 Russia 84.5 (2016)
 Saudi Arabia 87 (2015)
 UK 62,
 France 62,
Cultural Power/Soft power

 Holly Wood, IT, Google, Facebook etc.

 Media – CNN, FOX, etc.
 Democracy
 Secular society
 Human Rights
 Women rights
 Liberty
 Free Speech, etc.
 Nutshell, American Dream
 From unipolar to multipolar world

 Over all world is peaceful – no hegemonic competition, and

US cannot be balanced.

 BUT, power is diffusing;

 China is rising in Asia, India in SA, Russia in CA.

 ASEAN economic block, BRICS, SCO

 European integration has question after Brexit.

 US F.P Objectives
1. Safeguard territorial Integrity

2. Protection of US citizens from within and outside

3. Maintain links with other countries, to promote

cooperation/leadership.

4. To promote self interest, self preservation, and security of

citizens.
US FP determinants
1. Geography

2. Cultural history

3. Ideology

4. Public Mood

5. National Capacity (Military Capability, technological

advancement, and economic development).
 Defining US national Interests 4Ps

 Power: Military, Economy, and diplomacy.

 Peace: maintain peace for US led world order, through

institutions, like UNO, IMF, WB, and IAEA.

 Prosperity: of Americans through Global Capitalism.

 Principles: Democracy, human rights, etc.

 Prior to WWII it was an idealist state – after WWII became
realist one.

 “USA married Principle with Power”, Rice.

 In case of Russia and China there is common interest but no

common ideology.

 US and India value based relation- democracy.

 Obama Supported Diplomacy and peace.

 After failures in Afghanistan and Iraq, Hillary Clinton believed

in a need to introduce diplomacy and peace. (Iran deal, Cuba
visit)

 Civilian power must be strengthened.

 US Foreign Policy Structure and process

1 President
 Com in Chief, most powerful actor, authority for declaring wars,
central to FP making.

2 National Security Council

 Principle forum for FP and security issues with advisors and
cabinet members.
 Function is to advise & assist the President on national security
and foreign policies.
 US Foreign Policy Structure and process
3 Congress.

 Legislation, and determine foreign policy. LoN, Kyoto

protocol.

 Goals – check & balance on executive authority

 Sanctions / Foreign Aid / Human Rights.

FP Making Process in US

4 Intelligence Community: CIA has an important role in FP

making process

5 Interest Groups: Lobbyists, MNCs, MIC, NGOs, etc.

6 Media: CNN, CNBC, ABC, Fox News, Time, Newsweek,

Washington Post, New York Times, and Wall Street.
 Instruments of FP

 Global Influence: Military Power

“We will continue to be a military nation if we are to maintain
leadership among others,” Truman 1945.
 Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Carter, Reagan all supported
this notion of using power for leadership.
“As we seek peace, we must also remain strong. The purpose of
our military might is not to pressure a weak Soviet economy or
to seek military superiority. It is to deter war. It is to defend
ourselves and our allies,” Bush Sr. May 12, 1989.
Instruments of FP

 Covert Activities

 Foreign Aid

 Sanctions

 Alliances
 US FP in Asia Pacific Region

 “The future of politics will be decided in Asia, not in

Afghanistan or Iraq, and the US will be right at the centre of
the action,” H. Clinton (2011)

 “US will shift 60% naval fire power to Asia Pacific by 2020,”
Leon Panetta.

 Strengthening Alliances: Europe to Asia.

 Check Chinese rise.

 US FP for Muslim World

Engaging Muslim World

 9/11, Under Bush, US relations with Muslim world strained
especially after 2003.

 Obama came with vision of change and engaging Muslim

World – Cairo Speech.

 He focussed on common grounds between Muslim and West –

Justice, Progress, tolerance, and dignity of human.
US Middle East FP goals (2000-2010)

 To ensure Access to Energy, Prevention of WMD’s

proliferation, and dismantling Terrorist Networks;
 US opted 4Ds policy under Obama;

1. Disengagement – Syria, Iraq

2. Drone – Yemen
3. Democracy
4. Diplomacy – Cairo Speech
Drivers of the Middle East Policy

 Oil,

 Arab Israel relations ….role of US as stabilizer,

 Threat to friends – Israel, KSA,

 Iranian Nuclear Ambitions,

 Al-Qaeda and ISIS,

 Syrian and Iraqi instability.

 Contours of Donald Trump’s FP
 Economic Nationalism – America First,

 Focusses on Domestic policy more than FP.

 Check Chinese currency manipulation.

 Making Japan to invest in liberal order.

 Withdrew from TPP and rejected Paris climate deal.

 Revisit Iranian nuclear deal.

Trump’s Middle Eastern policy

 By striking ISIS reassures support to friends – KSA, Egypt,

Israel.
 Contain Iranian influence and toppling Bashar.
 Support Kurds against ISIS (causes friction in Ankara)
 Reluctantly wants to keep Iran nuclear deal intact.
 Peace process b/w Israel Palestine
 Favors a united Sunni Arab against Iran.
 Therefore, supports Islamic Military Alliance.
 US (under Trump) FP to South Asia/Afghanistan
 Troops surge, making field officers autonomous.
 Push Pakistan to “do more” – Afghanistan.
 Stabilize Afghanistan, with Indian role.
 Economic cooperation with regional Countries
 Fighting Terrorism and promoting Peace.
 Strengthen counter-insurgency efforts of the respective
countries
 Strengthen democratic institutions.
 India as preferred ally in Afghanistan.
Trump’s options for North Korean challenge
1. Acceptance
2. Military intervention – total destruction of NK.
3. Diplomacy
4. Regime Change

 If allowed – they can transfer others for suitable price.

 Undermine NPT regime.
Foreign Policy Of China
 Principles of Chines FP
1. Mutual Respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity,
2. Mutual non-aggression,
3. Non-interference, into the domestic affairs of the nations,
4. Equality and mutual benefits,
5. Peaceful coexistence.
 Peaceful Rise and Peaceful Development

 Chinese rise will not be violent, disrupting, disturbing, and

aggressive for neighbours.

 Chines future will be harmless.

 It can also co-exist with other states.

 Capability Factors.

 Natural resources Iron, Coal, but lacks Oil and Gas. 64% of
its needs imported, 80% 2035.
 Semi official – a regional power.
 Economy – 11.19 Trillion in (2017)
Formidable military power
 2008 59 Billion US$
 2010 120 Billion US$
 2013/14 (180) Billion US$
 2016 216 Billion US$.
Chinese Foreign Policy Thinking
 Yes to Peace, No to Conflict

 Yes to Cooperation, No to Opposition

 Yes to Justice, No to Hegemon

 Yes to Win-Sum, No to Zero-Sum

 Chinese Belt Road Initiative
 Is the result of Openness, Inclusiveness, Transparency

 68 countries involved

 It is not geostrategic tool against any country

 Will bring prosperity and growth for all participants.

 All countries will be winners and no one will be loser.

 Chinese Belt Road Initiative

 CPEC will create one million jobs in Pakistan .

 Gwadar to handle 300/400 million tons annually.
 CPEC will save million barrel/day and 9000 kilometer of
distance.
 4 to 8 trillion will be spent on OBOR
 It is 55% of World GDP, 65% of energy production, and 900
projects.
 By 2050 Chinese economy - 58 Trillion.
Chinese next 5 years contribution

 Import 8 trillions of goods.

 Attract 600 billion FDI in China

 700 million Chinese will visit outside world

 CPEC will be first of OBOR to be completed.

 Considerations in Chinese FP on Global Scale.

 Friendly relations with neighbours.

 Restructuring of economy, from labour intensive industry to

services sector.

 Under XI Chinese FP conduct – assertive, bold, decisive, and

active.
 Considerations in Chinese FP on Global Scale.

 Under Xi China wants – restructuring of Int. Institutions.

 China complains that institutes are made and played by West –

AIIB.
 Considerations in Chinese FP on Global Scale.

 Xi’s vision is “Asian Community”, and “Asian Security”.

 Wants to extend its relations to Europe with Eurasian policy.

 China’s “March West”.

March West …

Mao Zedong’s famous exposition on Chinese military strategy;

“Where the enemy advances, we retreat. Where the enemy

retreats, we pursue.“

 Europe … (Brexit).
 Africa.
 Afghanistan etc.
Considerations in Chinese FP on Global Scale.

 China is promoting Chinese Nationalism and Chinese version

of democracy.

 China is working for “Chinese Dream”, - as American Dream.

 Rethinking Korean policy.

 China India Relations

 Competition and cooperation in political military spheres. (80

Billion US$ Trade)
 Largely they have cooperated at global level - BRICs, SCO,
etc.
 Both support reforms in int. economic order.
 Both are members on climate change forums and frameworks
like UNFCCC etc.
 Also support counter terrorism efforts as a common interest.
(but all these are at global level)
 China India Relations
 Rivals at regional levels.
 India rejects Chinese regional hegemony.
 India questions CPEC – sovereignty.
 China exports hi-tech products and imports raw material from
India.
 China does not support India for UNSC seat.
 In IOR India poses a threat to – 80% Chinese trade.
 China views India as instrument of US rebalancing strategy.
 China India Relations

 India accuses China of double standards, CPEC & SCS.

 Gwadar – a commercial port, not a naval Base, India should
not worry, says China.

 India and China are competing in ME and CA.

 China – investments in Indian infrastructure.

 China relations with Pak

 Time tested all weather friend ship.

 Economic interest convergence.
 China supports at UNSC.
 Expanding from strategic to economy and social fronts.
 Nuclear energy cooperation.
 Chinese concerned about the integrity of Pakistan in 2008-9,
and now economic stability.
 CPEC is a 62$ billion investment/loan project.
 China Sri Lanka relations

 Under Rajapakse – relations were good.

 China invested in seaports, roads infrastructure, militarily

helped crush LTTE rebellion.

 Mass media change the perception of the people about china .

 China with Afghanistan

 China committed to stabilize Afghanistan.

 With ISIS in Afghanistan, Afghanistan poses a threat to

China Russia and the region. (Xing Xiang)

 It support Afghan-led-Afghan-owned process.

 To keep India out there is also a Quadrilateral mechanism

China – Pakistan – Afghanistan - US.
 China’s Relations with Russia
 Both coming closer – shared anxieties.

 Xi – first trip as president to Russia.

 Both share common ground on Syria.

 Signed 400 US$ energy deal in 2014 for 30 years.

 Russia – part of OBOR, and founders of BRICs & SCO.

Priorities in XI’s Foreign Policy
 Socialism as core value…

 Decisive role in UNSC.

 Chinese dream Vs. American dream

 Centralized powers with presidency.

 Pre-emptive security (Hard line south China Sea)

Priorities in XI’s Foreign Policy
 Financial restructuring, BRICS, AIIB etc.

 OBOR

 To cooperate with neighbours – they will become dependent.

 Infrastructural diplomacy.

 Asian Security for Asian community.

Russian Foreign Policy
 Overview of Russian FP
 Mixture socialist and capitalist policies.

 Primarily based on Territorial integrity.

 Exercises strong influence in CA, Eastern Europe.

 Opposes NATO expansion towards eastward.

 Opposes Ukraine and Georgian entry into EU/NATO.

 Over view of Russian FP

 Asserted power in Crimea.

 Does not seem to be compromising in Syria, Ukraine, and

Afghanistan.

 Involved in multilateral org. APEC, SCO, BRICS, G8, IMF,

IAEA, and NSG.
 Russian Resurgence since 2003
 Putin as strong Leader. Yeltsin VS Putin
 After 2003, under Putin …
 2nd Largest coal reserves
 Petro-economy
 Allocated 30 Bil. US$ for pipelines modernization
 Priority is in near abroad, CA, Eastern Europe, JAPAN, China,
Korea
 With US Pivot strategy Russia is also looking for its eastward
strategy.
 Russia in Middle East

Russia achieved Six Objective in Syria

 1 - Filled vacuum created by USA inaction.
 2 - Ended own isolation at global level.
 3 - Acquired leverage in Post Assad Syria.
 4 - Weakened EU & Arab govts, strengthened Iran.
 5 - He is in position of bargain in Ukraine.
 6 - Denied victory to US plans of regime change in Syria.
 Russia cooperating with KSA, Iran, & Turkey.
 In Sep 2017, Russia, turkey, and Iran agreed to establish
control zones in Syria.

 Saudia and Russia are coming closer through bilateral

investments and arms deals.

 Russia wants to stay closer with all regional players.

 Iran, Turkey, and KSA have interests in Syria – only Russia

can facilitate that.
 Russia cooperating with KSA, Iran, & Turkey.
 Turkey gives way to Russia to Mediterranean through
Bosporus.
 Russia wants to keep Islamists weak by using KSA and Iran.
 Turkey needs a sphere into Syria to check Iran’s power in
Syria and to keep the Syrian Kurds weak in the north.
 Iran wants to further limit the threat of Sunni groups in Syria
and consolidate its power in Syria and Iraq.
 KSA wants to cooperate to stabilize oil prices and check
Iranian influence.

 Russia wants to accumulate power in middle east to bargain

with US in Ukraine.

 Moscow is, therefore, establishing a balance that lets Russia

play one country off the other so that no single power gains
too much influence in the region.
 Challenges Russia faces
 Economic modernization, Diversification from Hydrocarbon
and Arms to Hi-Tech and other sectors.
 NATO’s eastward expansion.
 Social reforms, openness to the world.
 Rising China in the neighbourhood.
 Declining population growth and Threat of Islamization in CA.
 Internal political unrest, Corruption of govt. officials.
 Rebuilding infrastructure.
Indian Foreign Policy
 Indian Foreign Policy under Modi Govt.

Indian Strategic Priorities;

 Integrated neighbourhood; “Neighbourhood First.”
 Achieve international partnerships to promote India’s
economic growth.
 Ensuring multipolar balance of power in the region, “Act
East.”
 Dissuading Pakistan from supporting terrorism.
 Projecting Indian representation & leadership on global issues.
 Indian Foreign Policy Objectives;
1- Neighbourhood First: Improving connectivity.
 Friendly relations with neighbours and IOR countries.
 Support neighbours with resources, equipment, and training.
 Greater connectivity and integration to improve the free flow
of goods, people, energy, capital, and information.
 Promote a model of India-led regionalism with which its
neighbours are comfortable.
But
(a negative ideological transformation is feared in India)
2- Bridging diplomacy and development.
 International partnerships to advance India’s domestic
development.
 Improving technological access, capital, gaining market
access, and securing natural resources.. CA
 US-India Nuclear deal.
 Japan’s investment in high-speed rail line.
 Chinese investments in infrastructure building.
3- Acting East as China rises.
 Modi replaced ‘Look East’ policy with ‘Act East,’ - to show
greater intent.
 China’s rise and the upsetting of Asian balance of power.

a)Risk of Chinese assertiveness on the disputed border,

b)Possibility of Chinese primacy in the Indo-Pacific region,
4- Pakistan: Engagement and isolation.
 Pakistan’s relative importance for India has waned significantly over
the past few years.

 Trade b/w Indo-Pak is almost non-existent.

 Kashmir Issue – a nuclear flashpoint.

 India tried to dissuade China from CPEC.

 India trying to isolate Pakistan internationally.

 5- India as a leading power: Raising ambitions.

 Indian economy and clout is on the rise.

 Wishes to be part of all global forums – UNSC, G20, BRICS.

 USA is helping India become a great power.

 Question to Attempt

 US invasion of Iraq resulted in sectarianism, Irani expansionism,

Iraqi devastation, and above all disturbed the regional balance of
the power, how true is this statement?
 What should be the Foreign Policy priorities of US in Europe
after Brexit, and Asia?
 The contours of the world politics in 21st century will be shaped
by US-China relations, discuss.
 Do you see Sino-Russian partnership in the future given the
developments in Pacific and ME regions?
 Why is Turkey coming closer to Russia and distancing from US?