Tropical Cyclone Characteristics Associated with Extreme

Precipitation in the Northern Philippines

Bernard Alan Racoma1,2,*, Nicholas Klingaman2, Christopher Holloway2, Reinhard Schiemann2, and Gerry Bagtasa1
*
Corresponding Author: bbracoma@up.edu.ph
1
Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology, University of the Philippines, Diliman
2
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom

TC Precipitation Threshold Exceedance

Figure 1: Tropical Cyclones making landfall in Luzon between Figure 2: Example calculation of precipitation exceedance for Typhoon Xangsane
1978-2015

In terms of extreme precipitation, or Weighted

Precipitation Exceedance (WPE), for Tropical
Cyclones (TC) making landfall in Luzon,
Philippines
1.Strong TCs before landfall: higher WPE after landfall
2.Oct-Dec TCs tend to be stronger, and also bring precipitation
to otherwise drier regions during the said season
3.Strong TCs during Jun-Sept have a higher chance of exceeding
extreme precipitation threshold
Figure 3: WPE for different combined season and TC intensity Racoma et al, submitted to International Journal of Climatology 2020
categories
Tropical Cyclone Characteristics Associated
with Extreme Precipitation in the Northern
Philippines
Bernard Alan Racoma1,2,*, Nicholas Klingaman2, Christopher Holloway2, Reinhard Schiemann2, and Gerry Bagtasa1
*
Corresponding Author: bbracoma@up.edu.ph
1
Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology, University of the Philippines, Diliman
2
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom

Racoma et al, submitted to International Journal of Climatology 2020

The Philippines lies along the Northwestern Pacific Ocean
Basin, the most active Tropical Cyclone (TC) basin in the
world.
Because of this, the Philippines is at risk for TC-
related hazards such as flooding, landslides, and
storm surges.
In this study, we examined the extreme precipitation
of TCs making landfall in Luzon, the northern
region of the Philippines
 Methodology and Data
1. IDENTIFY and SELECT TCs
• International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS)
2. CATEGORISE TCs according to pre-landfall characteristics
• According to intensity based on JTWC: Non-TY (< 64 knots) and TY (>64 knots)
• According to TC median movement speed of 11.375 knots : Fast and Slow
• June to September (JJAS) and October to December (OND)
3. DEFINE and CALCULATE Extreme Precipitation
• Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation
(APHRODITE)
• 95th percentile precipitation threshold
• Weighted mean precipitation exceedance (WPE)
4. COMPARE relationships between categories and WPE
We found out that OND TCs brings precipitation in
otherwise dryer regions during the said season
Mean daily Mean precipitation
TC Tracks
precipitation during TC landfall

JJAS
Southwest
monsoon

OND
Northeast
monsoon
 We then introduced the Weighted Extreme
Precipitation Exceedance (WPE) as a measure of
EXTREME RAINFALL
1. Calculate 1-day post-
landfall precipitation
2. Subtract an extreme
precipitation threshold
3. Set negative values to
zero
4. Get mean of the TC Precipitation Threshold Exceedance
resulting exceedance Example calculation of precipitation exceedance for Typhoon Xangsane
Initial Comparison between WPE and
Characteristics

1. WPE is higher for

stronger TCs
1. moderate increasing
relationship
2. WPE is higher for slower
TCs
1. weak decreasing
relationship
We categorized TCs according to movement speed (fast vs
slow), intensity (Non-TY vs TY), and season (Jun-Sept vs
Oct-Nov)
1. Slow (< 11.375 knots) and Fast (>11.375 knots)
2. Non-TY (< 64 knots) and TY (>64 knots)
3. June to September (JJAS) and October to December (OND)
 We compared WPE for the different categories

WPE is higher for SLOW TCs WPE is higher for TYPHOONS WPE is similar between seasons
(< 32.5 knots) (> 64 knots)
Regardless of season or movement speed, TYs tend
to produce higher WPE
 Summary so Far
1. Slow TCs OR strong TCs tend to yield higher WPE
2. When Speed category is same, strong TCs tend to yield higher WPE
3. When Intensity category is same, no significant difference between
WPE of Fast and Slow TCs
4. WPE is similar between seasons
5. When Season is the same, strong TCs tend to yield higher WPE
OND TCs that make landfall in Luzon are stronger than
JJAS TCs. This is because OND TCs form further to the
East
 There is a contradiction?
If TCs are stronger during OND, and stronger TCs
tend to produce higher WPE, why is it that WPE is
similar between JJAS and OND?
While intensity indeed matters in anticipating higher
WPE, this relationship is more substantial for JJAS
TCs compared to OND.
TCs that
Probability
Mean exceed
to exceed
Season Intensity Speed WPE Count median
median WPE
(mm/day) WPE of
of all TCs
all TCs
Fast 5.70 28 9 32.14%
Non-TY
Slow 8.14 22 10 45.45%
JJAS
Fast 11.28 11 8 72.72%
TY
Slow 25.56 10 8 80.00%
Fast 3.94 12 3 25.00%
Non-TY
Slow 5.67 10 4 40.00%
OND
Fast 13.25 13 8 61.54%
TY
Slow 15.77 21 14 66.66%
 Conclusions
Different TCs, different seasons, different hazards
• JJAS TCs generally wetter
• OND TCs typically stronger
• OND TCs brings precipitation in otherwise dryer regions