PHANTOMS: A Method of Testing

Hypotheses
 P: Parameter of Interest
• If you haven’t noticed yet, the parameter of
interest is kind of a big deal. First, and
foremost, we always want to consider who or
what the research is trying to generalize to.
 H: Hypotheses
• These are broken up into the Ho (null
hypothesis) and Ha (alternative hypothesis).
• The null hypothesis usually a neutral
statement. Often times this will result in
having a small equation representing the
current common belief.
• The alternative hypothesis is a declarative
statement which is counter to the null
hypothesis.
 A: Assumptions and Conditions
• These are the things that must be true in order
to carry out a confidence interval or hypothesis
test.
• Examples of this are the rules of thumb for
proportions, checking for a normal distribution
with sampling distributions, or that the sample
size is large enough for t-tests.
• In every situation, we must either evidence or
assume that the design from which the data
was gathered contains an appropriate element
of randomness to reduce bias.
 N: Name the Test
• It seems silly…but they really like it when you
name the test. It lets them know that you know
that they know you know what you’re talking
about. Some people think this is optional for our
exams…some people are wrong.
• We have several tests that we will look at. Z-Tests,
Two-Sample Z-Tests, T-Tests, Two-Sample T-Tests,
1-Proportion Z-Test, 2-Proportion Z-Test, Chi-
Square Test, Chi-Square Goodness of Fit Test, and
LinReg T-Test
• This seems like a lot…remember that all of them
will follow this same exact format.
 T: Test Statistic
• This is where all of the math happens. For our
Z and T tests, this is where we calculate Z and
T scores based on our hypotheses. For Chi-
Square and LinReg T-Tests, this is where we
said we use a calculator.
• The whole purpose of these calculations is to
find a probability, the chances that an event or
pair of events occurred.
 O: Obtain the P-Value
• Once we’ve done our calculations, we must
state what the P-Value is.
• Simple as that.
 M: Make a Decision
• The P-Value is then compared to a set level based on the
importance of the study. The more important the study, the
smaller the probability (P-Value) needs to be.

• Commons alpha ( ) levels are 0.01, 0.05, 0.10. For example, if the
study isn’t very important (studying candy preference), we would
generaly use an alpha of 0.10.
• If the P-Value is less than the alpha, then we Reject the null
hypothesis.
• If the P-value is not less than the alpha, then we Fail to Reject the
null hypothesis.
• We always site the comparison between the P-Value and the
alpha as why we choose to reject or fail to reject.
• Never…ever…ever…accept a null hypothesis. To accept is to claim
an absolute truth, and unfortunately, those are few and far
between.
S: Statement of the Conclusion in Context

• Finally, we wrap everything up by putting

everything together.
• We note if we have rejected or failed to reject
the null hypothesis.
• We restate the null hypothesis as a part of this
statement to keep the conclusion in context.
• We site the comparison between the P-Value
and the alpha to evidence why we have chosen
to reject or to fail to reject.
 Example Time!
A manufacturer claims that a particular
automobile model will get 50 miles per gallon on
the highway. The researcher at a consumer-
oriented magazine believes that this claim is high
and plan on a test with a simple random sample
of 30 cars. Assuming the standard deviation
between individual cars is 2.3 miles per gallon,
what should the researchers conclude if the
sample mean is 49 miles per gallon?
 PH
• Parameter of Interest:
– The fuel efficiency, in miles per gallon, of a particular
model of automobile.
• Hypotheses:   50mpg
– Ho: The automobile does get 50 mpg   50mpg
– Ha: The automobile gets less than 50 mph

• Notice that we did not use the value of 49. We

consider what is happening with the parameter,
the sample either helps to reject or fail to reject
that parameter.
 AN
• Assumptions:
– The problem states that it is a random collection
of cars.
– We must assume that the distribution of the fuel
efficiency of this particular model of car is
approximately normal to continue.

• Name the Test:

– We will conduct a Z-Test
 TO
• Test Statistic:
2.3
• N( 50, )
30
x   49  50
z   2.3814
 2. 3
n 30

• Obtain a P-Value:
• The P-Value associated with z  2.38 is
0.0087
 MS
• Make a Decision:
– We will reject Ho based on the evidence that the P-Value
is 0.0087. This is less than an acceptable alpha of 0.05,
and even less than a more extreme alpha of 0.01.
P Value  
0.0087  0.05

• Statement of Conclusion in Context:

– We reject the Ho, that the fuel efficiency of this particular
model of car is indeed 50 mpg, as evidenced by a P-Value
of 0.0087 which is less than any reasonable alpha level for
this situation.
 It’s a Process
• Get comfortable with the process.
• Notice this is an extension of the process we should
always do for Confidence Intervals. From now on, you
should do PATS with confidence intervals. Parameter
of Interest, Assumptions and Conditions, Test
Statistic, and Statement of Conclusion in Context.
• This process is good for Every test, and Every
confidence interval we do. There will be small
changes along the way, but if you get use to
PHANTOMS, you can more easily score an E on every
question about hypothesis testing.