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5-20tonight's Live Content
5-20tonight's Live Content
5-20tonight's Live Content
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GLOBAL MANAGEMENT
Content
1. Financial Perspective
3. Trading System
Financial Perspective
Focus on US
After reaching a historic high, the stock market has shown little change—the
market saw mixed movements with major indices fluctuating around the flatline,
making for a calm end to a strong week on Friday. Yesterday, the Dow Jones hit
a milestone, briefly surpassing 40,000 points for the first time. The slowdown in
inflation and economic growth has boosted confidence that the Federal Reserve
may cut interest rates in the second half of the year.
The market continues to rise, with broader support—this week’s inflation data
provided some relief and helped the market reach new highs as disinflation
resumed after three months of accelerating prices. This data also confirmed the
Fed's stance against further rate hikes, while indicating a willingness to keep
rates in a restrictive range, showing patience.
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Focus on India
Sanjeev Sanyal, a member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime
Minister (EAC-PM) of India, stated that the Indian economy is set to reach a size
of $4 trillion by 2024-25. He projected that India will surpass Japan to become
the world's fourth-largest economy early in the next fiscal year. Sanyal further
mentioned that despite various constraints such as weak exports, a 7% growth
rate would be a “very good” growth rate for India. "Therefore, in this fiscal year,
we will become a $4 trillion economy," he said.
Market Review
The Nifty 50 index experienced slight fluctuations during the special trading
session on May 18, ultimately closing above 22,500 points for the first time
since May 2. The 22,500-point level is anticipated to play a crucial role in
determining the index's future direction. If the index maintains these levels in the
coming days, the immediate resistance is expected at 22,600 points, followed by
the 22,700-22,800 point range. However, if it fails to hold, support is likely to be
found at the 22,400 and 22,300 point levels.
The Nifty 50 index opened higher at 22,513 points, traded within the range of
22,520-22,470 points, and closed at 22,502 points. Despite increased volatility, it
still managed to rise by 36 points. This marks the third consecutive trading day
of upward movement and the fifth straight day of higher highs. The formation of
a small bearish candlestick pattern with a lower shadow on the daily chart
suggests buying interest at lower levels.
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Market Outlook
The Nifty 50 index remains within a channel, closing above 22,500 points for the first
time in several days. However, the small candlestick on the daily chart provides little
indication of the future price direction. Additionally, the significant selling in both call
and put options at the 22,500 strike price suggests a potential turning point. As a result,
traders should remain cautious and look for confirmation of any directional move.
The support level for Nifty 50 is at 22,400 points. A sustained movement could push the
index towards 22,600 points or even higher in the short term. Meanwhile, volatility has
spiked again, closing above the 20 mark, which is concerning for the bulls. The India
VIX, the volatility index, rose by 3.67% from 19.8 to 20.53.
Weekly options data shows that 22,500 points is a critical resistance level. If this level is
successfully maintained, the index could potentially rise to 22,800 points. Support levels
are at 22,400 points, with key support at 22,000 points.
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UC, block deals, and IPO subscriptions. These are methods you haven't tried before and perhaps never imagined
existed as profit-making strategies in the market. Most people only know about buying low and selling high. For
instance, there are many stocks that hit continuous daily price limits, and you can see that if you could buy into
them, you'd make money instantly. But due to trading mechanisms, you can't buy them through the secondary
market and thus miss out on these profit opportunities.
Additionally, there's block deal, where you buy stocks at a price lower than the market price and profit from it.
And then there's IPO subscription, which you're likely familiar with; everyone knows that getting new stocks
through IPO subscription is certainly profitable. However, it's very difficult to get allocated shares using a
regular secondary market account.
Important Announcement
Fifth Phase First IPO Deployment
Trading System
1. To get rich
2. To beat inflation
Then, you'll have a rough idea of whether your profits come from buying low, chasing
rallies, or entering midway, and what position sizes work best for you. You'll also
understand which trades tend to lead to losses: whether it's buying into losses from the
start or initially profitable trades turning into losses.
As you continue to learn and understand more, you'll naturally identify more
opportunities. However, not every opportunity will be something you excel at.
Of course, if your experience is limited and your trading records aren't providing
much useful information, don't worry. This is normal.
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Thought Process
- The overall market environment:
1. Whether the market is currently rising, falling, or trading sideways. There are three scenarios. Then,
what are the driving forces behind the market's rise and fall respectively? Are there any structural opportunities
during sideways movement (like the 28-distribution market, structural bull or bear)?
2. How is the profitability of the market? There's no direct link between index levels and profitability. Even
if the index is trading low, there can still be good short-term opportunities. It's about whether those who
bought first make money, allowing those who buy later to continue making money. If there's a game of passing
the parcel, then the market's trading volume won't be low.
3. Speaking of trading volume, the frequency of short-term players' trades is positively correlated with
market trading volume, measuring the sustainability of profitability. It also relates to the issue of tolerance. In
an active trading market, even if you make mistakes, there's a chance that the active funds in the market will
help absorb them, and there's still a chance to profit by exiting. If the trading volume is low, like in the current
stage, various attempts to rise followed by falls, the consistent downward trend can't break out.
Market Styles
1. Market capitalization, leaning towards growth or value, leaning towards stocks with high dividends
and low price fluctuations or simply price difference fluctuations. This is generally related to the
macroeconomic cycle and also related to market trading volume.
2. The market's operating path, such as consecutive short-term limit ups, short-term limit downs
followed by rebounds, or short-term trend operations. For example, long-term trend operations, or
range-bound oscillations. The formation of these operating path styles is quite complex and results
from a combination of many factors, which I won't delve into here. But when we trade, we should
align with the market's operating path, which will significantly increase the probability of success.
3. Whether dealing with IPOs, recently listed stocks, or other stocks, this is also related to the
market's strength, weakness, and trading volume. For example, trading weak IPOs or recently listed
stocks, or chasing sentiment-driven high-flying IPOs, the market's profitability is aimed at
accelerating profits.
Trading Cycles
Everything has its cycles, and stock trading pays even more attention to them. I won't delve into the
discussion of cycles and emotions here; that's a big topic that requires several lessons to cover. So I’ll
keep it simple for this lesson.
For example, avoiding trading behaviors that go against the cycle: during an uptrend, whether you're
buying on limit-up or bottom-fishing, it's fine. But during a downtrend, if you can avoid limit-downs,
do so, and if you can avoid chasing, do that too. Instead of buying breakouts to new highs, there's an
opportunity to buy into oversold rebounds after stabilization.
How to deal with different cycles, how to view the rotation of major and minor cycles, and the
trading rhythm here is the core of the core. In a market that isn't trending in one direction, adjusting
trading rhythms according to cycle changes becomes the essence. To master this, you must first find
your own trading system, and you must first perfect your basic understanding. But unfortunately,
90% of traders fail at these two stages. It's like trying to run before learning to crawl.
2. Methods of Participation
Position Management
Position management comes after you've selected your window, identified your target,
and clarified your entry and exit criteria or discipline. It involves determining how much
to buy.
Here, we also need to consider the risk-reward ratio. If the overall environment and the
selected window are favorable, and the trading opportunities have a high probability of
success, then larger positions can be taken. Position size is related to the probability of
success. Even if it's an arbitrage opportunity, but if the timing, circumstances, and
certainty are extremely favorable, then heavy positions are justified because the
probability of success is high. On the other hand, if it's a high-quality target with strong
fundamentals but it's in a downward cycle, in a market downturn with decreased trading
volume and no profit-making effect, and lacks mainstream appeal, then you must
absolutely control your position size even if you still want to engage in it.
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Remember, it's better not to make money than to lose money on opportunities that could have been
avoided!
Some individuals in the market have strong self-control, are very disciplined, and are either fully
invested or completely out of the market, waiting patiently. Should we allocate different positions
according to different market cycles, or should we allocate positions based on opportunities? I
believe there's no contradiction here. Market cycles represent the overall trend, and the entire
system should first obey the general trend, followed by seizing opportunities. The dynamic changes
in position allocation should follow the changes in the entire cycle. The utilization of allocable
positions should be determined by the size of the opportunities.
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