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Capital Budgeting
Capital Budgeting
Capital Budgeting
There are two ways of calculating the payback period. The first method is used
when yearly cash inflows are uniform. In such a case, the initial cost of investment
is divided by the constant annual cash flow.
Investment
Payback Period = ---------------------------------
Constant annual cash flow
• The payback year is the year prior to full recovery plus a fraction
equal to shortfall at the end of that year divided by the cash flow
during the full recovery year.
• For example, an initial investment of Rs. 30,000 yields cash inflows of Rs.
14,000, Rs. 12,000 and Rs. 8,000 during the first three years. The cumulative
cash flows are Rs. -4000 up to year 2 and become positive in the third year .
The Payback Period is therefore 2+4,000/8,000=2.5 years .
Payback Period
• Decision Rule for Payback Period:
-----------
1,50,000
-----------
Present Value of Cash Inflows:
1 2 3 4 5
Less Costs:
Total cash flow after tax 90,000 87,813 87,172 84,941 1,48,824
Calculation of NPV
We won’t face this problem if the NPV method were used; we would
simply find the NPV at the appropriate cost of capital and use it to
evaluate the project
Modified IRR (MIRR)
• The IRR is supposed to indicate the expected rate of return on
investments.
n
Ct
NPV =
t 1 (1 k ) t
C0 (1 )
IR R is th e ra te r a t w h ic h N P V = 0
n
Ct
or
t 1 (1 r ) t
C0 0
n
Ct
or C 0
t 1 (1 r ) t
NPV & IRR Method- Conflict
S u b s titu tin g th e v a lu e o f C 0 in (1 ) a b o v e
n n
Ct Ct
NPV
t 1 (1 k ) t
t 1 (1 r ) t
n
Ct Ct
=
(1 k ) t (1 r ) t
t 1
Ct Ct
N P V w ill b e p o s itiv e o n ly w h e n
(1 k ) t
(1 r ) t
O r w hen r > k
NPV & IRR Method- Conflict
• NPV would be zero when r=k and negative when r<k.
• In case of independent projects, ranking is not important since
all profitable projects will be accepted.
• In real business situations, there are alternative ways of
achieving an objective (e.g. alternative distribution channels).
• Accepting one alternative means excluding the other. The
exclusiveness can be technical or financial.
• Ranking thus becomes important incase of mutually exclusive
projects. In such a case, NPV and IRR methods can give
conflicting ranking.
NPV & IRR Method- Conflict
The NPV and IRR rules will give conflicting ranking to the
projects under the following conditions:
(i) The cash flow pattern of projects may differ. The cash
flows of one project may increase over time while those
of the other may decrease or vice versa.
(ii) The cash outlays (initial investments) of the projects
may differ.
(iii) The projects may have different expected lives.
Different Patterns of Cash Flow
Cost of Capital is 8%
Different Patterns of Cash Flow
Year Project A Project B B-A
0 1,05,000 1,05,000 0
1 60,000 15,000 -45,000
2 45,000 30,000 -15,000
3 30,000 45,000 15,000
4 15,000 75,000 60,000
IRR 20% 16% 9%
NPV (8%) 23,970 25,455 1,485
Project A has higher IRR but lower NPV. As the required rate of return
increases, the NPV of the project that has larger cash flows later in its life,
comes down sharply. At a particular rate of discount, the NPVs are the
same. This is called Fisher’s intersection. At a discount rate above the
Fisher’s intersection, NPV and IRR give consistent results.
Example:
The two projects are ranked differently by NPV and IRR methods
Different Initial Outlays
Example2
Example2
Example
Example
• NPV is the best single measure as it tells us how much value each
project contributes to shareholder wealth and this measure should be
given the greatest weight in capital budgeting decisions.
• The accounting rate of return ignores time value of money but is still
used as accounting information is easily available.
Comparison of Capital Budgeting Methods
• IRR and MIRR measure profitability expressed as a percentage rate of
return which is easily understood by decision makers. IRR and MIRR
also contain information about a project’s ‘safety margin’.
• MIRR has all the merits of IRR but it incorporates a better reinvestment
rate assumption and avoids the problem of multiple rates of return. It is,
therefore, a better indicator than the regular IRR.