CDAE 170

Solar Building Strategies

Class #1 August 30, 2004

Gary Flomenhoft
BSME, MAPP, CEE
Research Associate
Gund Institute, SNR
Source: Smil (1991)
Work Done in the U.S. Economy, 1850-1970
100%

80%
Labor
Fuel
60%

40%

Domesticated
20% Animals

0%
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950
 Figure 2
The Composition of U.S. Energy Use
Source: (Hall et al., 1986)

100

Percent of total energy use

75 coal
wood

50 oil

gas

25 animal
feed

electricity

0
1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Hubbert Oil Cycle
World Oil Extraction
World Oil Extraction
World Oil Extraction
World Oil Consumption
 The Epoch of Fossil Fuel Exploitation
(after Hubbert, 1969)

300
Trillion kwh per year

200

100

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5
Mayan
culture Steam
Stonehenge Parthenon
Engine
Built completed
Pyramids
Iron in constructed Black
Middle Death
East
Inquisition
Magellan's
Circumnavigation
 Two Views

•Julian Simon view: technological

developments and human ingenuity
will yield more resources
–“Drowning in oil” The Economist, March
6th-12th 1999, pp. 23-25

•Colin Campbell, et al. use Hubbert

curves to predict the end of oil
S. Gürcan Gülen, –“The End of Cheap Oil” Scientific
Ph.D.
American, March 1998, pp. 78-83
(Campbell and Laherrere)
Real Price of Oil since 1869
 E in

Energy Energy
Source E out
Extraction (surplus)

E out
Energy Return on Investment (EROI)
= E i

n
Energy Rate of Return
 US CO2 by Sector (1999)

U.S. Territories
Commercial 1%
Source: 16%

(US EPA) Industrial

33%

Residential
19%

Transportation
31%
Percentage Sector Contribution to Air Pollution Emissions (1995)

Source: WRI Estimate Based on Data from "National Air Quality and Emissions Trends
Report, 1995," 1996, EPA 454/R-96-005.

AIR POLLUTION FATALITIES NOW EXCEED TRAFFIC FATALITIES BY 3: 1

http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/Update17.htm
 The Carbon Question

963
1000
Metric tons per GWhe

800 726

600
484

400

200

8 7 5 4
0
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Wind PV Solar
Thermal
 CARB DEFINITIONS

Passenger car emissions HC CO NOx

reduction
TLEV- Transitional Low- 50% NR NR
Emission Vehicle
LEV- Low-Emission Vehicle 70% NR 50%
ULEV- Ultra-Low-Emission 85% 50% 50%
Vehicle
SULEV- Super-Ultra-Low- 96% 70% 95%
Emission Vehicle
ZEV-Zero-Emission Vehicles 100% 100% 100%
PZEVs, ATPZEV-Advanced 96% 70% 95%
technology partial EV (CNG,
Additional Requirements
hybrid-electric, methanol fuel cell)
Atmospheric C02 since 1000
Atmospheric C02 since 1000
 If World consumption = US: Need 4 more planets

Source:
Center for
A New
American
Dream
 Full World or Empty World?

Source:
Ecological
Economics
Principles &
Applications,
Farley and
Daly
 Greenhouse gas emission
14 scenarios
12 Stabilization Targets
10

4 450 ppmv 550 650 750

2 Emissions (GtC)
Annual

0
1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250
 How much will the Kyoto Protocol reduce
emissions?
Business-as-usual

8 Kyoto Protocol scenario 8.0

7.6

6 6.4
5.8

2
Billion tons of carbon

0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Data Sources: United States Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration,

International Energy Outlook, 1998 and 1999.
 Cumulative carbon emissions, 1950-
China 1996
15,715
Germany 11,651
Japan 8,504
United Kingdom 7,415
India 4,235
Canada 4,054
South Africa 2,331
Mexico 2,118
Australia 2,080
Brazil 1,557
Korea, Rep. 1,361
Indonesia 966
United States 50,795

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

Million tons of carbon

Data Source: Marland et al, 1999. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.
 Per capita emissions of carbon from
industrial sources, 1996
Australia 4.63
Russian Federation 2.91
Germany 2.87
United Kingdom 2.59
Japan 2.54
Korea, Rep. 2.46
Ukraine 2.10
South Africa 1.88
Mexico 1.02
China 0.76
Brazil 0.46
Indonesia 0.33
India 0.29
United States 5.37

0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Thousand tons of carbon
Data Source: Marland et al, 1999. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.
SINK-CLIMATE CHANGE
Arctic Ice thinned by 40%: US subs
Climate losses
CLIMATE DAMAGE
CLIMATE DAMAGE
CLIMATE DAMAGE
CLIMATE DAMAGE
 Europe in August 2003

COUNTRY DEATHS DETAILS

Temperatures soared to 104 degrees Fahrenheit in parts of the
France 14,802 country; temperatures in Paris were the highest since record-
keeping began in 1873.
High temperatures of up to 105.4 degrees
Germany 7000 Fahrenheit, the hottest since records began in 1901, raised
mortality some 10 percent above average.
High temperatures coupled with elevated ground-level ozone
Spain 4230 concentrations exceeding the European Union's health-risk
threshold.
Temperatures in parts of the country averaged 16 degrees
Italy 4175 Fahrenheit higher than previous year.

The first triple digit (Fahrenheit) temperatures were recorded

UK 2045 in London.

Temperatures ranged some 14 degrees warmer than normal.

Neth 1400
Temperatures were above 104 degrees Fahrenheit throughout
Portugal 1316 much of the country.

Temperatures exceeded any in the Royal Meteorological

Belgium 150 Society's records dating back to 1833.

TOTAL 35,118
Ocean Conveyor Belt-
(Thermohaline)
Methane-hydrates
 Table 3
U.S. Energy Stocks and Flows

Stock Flow Multiple of Current U.S.

Source (1018 Btu) 15
(10 Btu per yr) Annual Energy Use
Coal 80 849
Oil 17 179
Oil Shale 22 228
Tar Sands 0.2 2
Gas 7 72
Unconventional Gas 5 54
Gas Hydrates 206 2,187
Uranium 3 29

Incident Solar Energy 46,700 496

Geothermal 39,685 421
Wind 155 2
Hydrogen 78 0.83
Biomass 47 0.50
Hydropower 2 0.02
Tides 1 0.01
 HYDROGEN FUEL CELL OPERATION

SOURCE:
Schatz Energy Lab
Humboldt State U.
SOME SURPRISING FACTS ABOUT HYDROGEN
Q1) IS HYDROGEN A NEW ENERGY SOURCE?
Where does hydrogen come from?
Fossil: nat gas, propane, gasoline, methanol
Renewable: electric wind, solar, etc. electrolyze water
Methane (CH4), methanol(CH3OH), ammonia(NH3?)
A) HYDROGEN STORES & TRANSPORTS
ENERGY, NOT A SOURCE.

Q2) WHICH IS MORE EFFICIENT, FUEL

CELL OR BATTERIES?
A) BATTERIES
 SOLAR FUEL CELLS ?

SOURCE:
Schatz
Energy Lab
Humboldt
State U.
 BIODIESEL

Can biodiesel help mitigate “global

warming”?
Source: Biodiesel reduces net CO2˜ emissions by 78
1998 US DOE percent compared to petroleum diesel. This
and US DOA is due to biodiesel’s closed carbon cycle.

How much vegetable oil is available?

US Soybean acreage could fuel 8 million
cars. (50 gals oil/acre)