Lecture # 10

Defence & Strategic Studies

Muhammad Jawad Hashmi

 Topics of Discussion
• Nuclear Parity / deterrence
– What are nuclear weapons?
• Types & Process
• Nuclear stockpiles
– What is nuclear Parity?
– What is Nuclear Deterrence?
• Credible Nuclear Deterrence
• Types of Nuclear Deterrence
 Nuclear Weapons
• Nuclear weapons are the most
dangerous weapons on earth. One
can destroy a whole city, potentially
killing millions, and jeopardizing the
natural environment and lives of
future generations through its long-
term catastrophic effects.
• Used only once In Hiroshima and
Nagasaki in 1945
• About 22,000 reportedly remain in
our world today and there have
been over 2,000 nuclear tests
conducted to date
According to US Department of Energy
 Nuclear Weapons
• A nuclear weapon is a weapon that suddenly releases
the energy in the nucleus of certain types of atoms.
When triggered, these devices release a huge amount
of energy in the form of a nuclear explosion.
• There are two ways to make nuclear weapons:
– Fission weapons (also called atomic bombs or A-Bomb)
• Fission weapons use a special isotope of uranium or plutonium.
– Fusion weapons (also called hydrogen bombs, H-Bomb or
thermonuclear weapons)
• Fusion weapons make bigger explosions. Fusion weapons use a
special isotope of hydrogen.
Fission & Fusion
Gun-type design (HEU)
Implosion design (plutonium or HEU)

Nuclear Weapons Process

1. Fission
2. Fusion
3. Boosted fission weapon
4. Neutron bomb
5. Radiological bomb
 Nuclear Parity
• A condition at a given point in time when opposing forces possess
nuclear offensive and defensive systems approximately equal in overall
combat effectiveness.
• Balance of Power = nuclear Parity?
• Is Nuclear Parity required for nuclear deterrence? Yes! or NO!
• Achieve Numeric Superiority
• Nuclear Weapons for Political Purpose or Military Purpose?
• Retaliatory Strike – second Response – Enough number of nuclear
weapons to eliminate adversary completely
– unacceptable damage in a retaliatory strike - the essence of the
concept of mutually assured destruction
– USSR made titanic efforts and achieved relative nuclear parity with
the USA in the early 1970s
– Arms Race & TNW
http://www.armscontrol.ru/start/publications/dkp0731.htm
Are nuclear weapons not weapons of war fighting?
 Nuclear Deterrence
• Deterrence: Threat of Use of Force
• Nuclear Deterrence: Threat of Use of Nuclear Force
• Deterrence is a strategy intended to deter an adversary
from taking an action not yet started, or to prevent them
from doing something that another state desires.
• The use of the power to hurt as bargaining power is the
foundation of deterrence theory, and is most successful
when it is held in reserve
• Evolution
– International system after WWII
– South Asia – 1980’s
 Credible Nuclear Deterrence
• A credible nuclear deterrent, must be always at the
ready, yet never used. (Bernard Brodie)
– Proportionality
– Reciprocity
– Coercive credibility
• Credibility of Nuclear Deterrence
– 2nd strike capability
– C4I2R (Command, Control, Computers, Communication,
Information, Intelligence, Reconnaissance)
• Credible Minimum Deterrence – Parity
 Continuous
• Direct Deterrence: Preventing armed attack
against a country's own territory i.e. USA vs
USSR
• Extended Deterrence: Preventing armed
attack against the territory of another country
i.e. USA’s umbrella to Japan
• Immediate Deterrence: Using deterrence
against a short-term threat of attack i.e Cuban
Missile Crisis, Pak vs India
 Types of Nuclear Deterrence
• Existential Deterrence Theory: Shared realization of massive attack
• Reassessed Deterrence Theory: Plans, Procedures and organization -
Dismantled weapons
• Classical Deterrence Theory/Rational Deterrence Theory: Strategic Parity
and Strategic Stability – BOP, Realpolitik – power politics – political Realism
– Equal Power distribution
– Structural Deterrence Theory: Systematic relations btw great powers is
maintained and costs of war are very high- Power= peace
– Decision Theoretic Deterrence Theory: Preferences, Choices, and
considering Miscalculations, Misperceptions and accidents
• Organization Deterrence theory – behavior pattern of professional
organizations (Military is important for stable deterrence)
• Perfect Deterrence Theory – Non-cooperative game theory approach –
Massive Retaliation/Flexible Response – Parity not Required – Minimum
Credible Deterrence required
Do you think this world is at Risk?