Climate Change

We are the Asteroid

Defining the Problem
• Climate change can be defined as a change in the typical or average weather in a
particular geographic region or globally
• Whereas weather refers to short-term fluctuations in temperature, precipitation,
humidity, wind etc., climate is weather averaged over the course of many decades,
centuries or even longer time scales
• Although the phrase climate change could be applied to any change in average weather
and does not take account of cause, in customary usage the phrase Is used as
shorthand for anthropogenic climate change
• The term anthropogenic literally means ‘human made’ and therefore anthropogenic
climate change is climate change that is attributable to human causes/agents
• The most significant cause of anthropogenic climate change is greenhouse gas
emissions which have been increasing since the start of the Industrial Revolution (more
on this later…)
The Geologic Time Scale
• Geologists, paleontologists and other natural scientists use the geologic
time scale to describe the environmental history of the planet,
distinguishing between different time intervals (e.g. Era, Period, Epoch
etc.)
• The different geologic periods usually correspond to some major
geological or paleontological event (such as a mass extinction)
• For example, 65 million years ago a large asteroid or comet
(approximately 10-15 km in diameter) struck the Earth in what is today
the Gulf of Mexico, ending the reign of the dinosaurs and ushering in a
new geologic period known as the Paleogene
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8Ij9xboreA
Welcome to the Anthropocene
• In recent years, scientists have debated the addition of a new epoch, dubbed the
Anthropocene, which would constitute the most recent interval in the geologic time
scale and would take account of the vast planetary impact of human life and societies
• Some scientists argue that the Anthropocene should be dated from the start of the
Industrial Revolution (hence coinciding with the start of climate change) but others
prefer extending it as far back as the dawn of Neolithic civilization (i.e. settled
farming) and the global spread of humans
• The Anthropocene has been marked by an incredible loss of biodiversity – what has
been dubbed the Sixth Great Extinction – and this is attributable not only to changes
in the Earth’s climate initiated by human activity but also to habitat destruction and
overexploitation by humans
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWrPo02e4fo
What is the Greenhouse Effect?
• The Greenhouse Effect is a process by which the atmosphere of a planet warms the surface
temperature beyond what it would have otherwise been
• The theory underlying the Greenhouse Effect is not new and can be traced as far back as the French
mathematician and physicist Joseph Fourier (1824), later supported by the work of the Swedish
chemist Svante Arrhenius (1896)
• In simple terms, the theory says that part of the solar radiation that is absorbed by our atmosphere
is also trapped by it (since it is radiated from the surface of the Earth at longer wavelengths) and this
thermal radiation is then reflected back upon the surface of the planet causing additional warming
to take place
• What is significant for our purposes is that certain gases can both absorb and emit radiation (this
includes diatomic gases and all gases with three or more atoms) and these are known as
greenhouse gases (GHGs)
• The most abundant GHGs in the Earth’s atmosphere are water vapour (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2),
methane (CH4) and ozone (O3) however it is carbon dioxide that has received the most attention
(for obvious reasons)
Where is All This CO2 Coming From?
• The Greenhouse Effect is not itself a product of human activity as the foregoing discussion
should make clear, but it is exacerbated by the excess emissions of CO2 by humans
• In 2013, atmospheric CO2 levels surpassed 400 ppm for the first time in recorded history
(as revealed by Antarctic ice-core data)
• The vast majority of human (as opposed to natural) CO2 emissions are from the burning of
fossil fuels
• Approximately 43% of these emissions are from the burning of coal, 36% are from oil and
20% are from natural gas
• If we continue burning fossil fuels at this pace, exhausting global reserves, it is estimated
that atmospheric CO2 concentrations will reach approximately 1500 ppm, warming the
Earth by a whopping 10C over the next two centuries
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWoiBpfvdx0
Water, Water Everywhere…
• Although most of our attention has been focused on CO2, it is important to point out
that this is not the most significant GHG either in terms of abundance or potency
• In fact, water vapour plays a much more significant role in terms of regulating the
climate, and there is some debate regarding the relationship between increasing
global temperatures and this GHG
• Rising global temperatures will naturally lead to higher concentrations of water
vapour resulting in a positive feedback loop, however when this vapour condenses it
forms clouds which can reflect sunlight leading to a potential reduction in
temperatures
• Unfortunately most climate scientists believe that the net effect of increasing cloud
cover on global temperature will be slightly positive because of their role in also
trapping heat
Other (Not So Noble) Gases
• While CO2 is far more abundant as a GHG, methane is roughly 30 times more
potent as a heat-trapping gas and concentrations have been rising sharply in
recent years
• Most scientists believe that the cause of this increase in atmospheric methane is
traceable to the role of agriculture, and specifically to cattle production as well as
the flooding of rice paddies in East Asia
• In addition, there is concern that the warming of the climate will ultimately result
in the melting of Arctic permafrost and the release of large concentrations of
methane hydrate as well as oceanic methane due to rising sea temperatures
• This would represent another positive feedback loop and could lead to runaway
climate change of a sort the Earth has seen before in its history
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNs9U4qVOII
What is a Feedback Loop?
• Feedback occurs when outputs of a system return as inputs within a cause-effect
loop
• Positive feedback will enhance or amplify changes, while negative feedback will
work in the opposite way, buffering against changes
• Scientists are aware of several positive feedback loops associated with our climate
system such as the Arctic ice melt or Ice-albedo feedback
• Because ice is light-coloured, it reflects a large amount of the solar radiation that
reaches Earth
• However, Arctic ice melt (which has exceeded most scientific forecasts) reveals the
darker-coloured land and sea below, which absorb more of the solar energy
leading to more warming and more ice melt in turn
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_WWXGGWZBE
The Evidence for/against Climate Change
• The evidence in support of global warming is by now indisputable - see, for example,
https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
• In a survey of 12,000 peer reviewed articles written by climate scientists that was
conducted in 2013, it was found that 97% agreed with the view that global warming is
caused by human activity
• Nevertheless, a small (but very vocal) group of scientists has challenged the consensus on
anthropogenic climate change
• Some claim that it is not human activity that is to blame for this phenomenon but rather
natural causes (e.g. increased solar activity) while others challenge the methodology
employed by the majority of climate scientists
• While their number is small, they have received a disproportionate amount of media
attention and many have questioned their motives
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9_pUFXeN1Y
Climate Change and its Discontents
• In some countries (most notably the United States), the subject of climate change has
become a partisan political issue, with Republicans largely opposing and Democrats
largely supporting the scientific consensus
• This is problematic since many of the politicians who are engaged in this debate have
little to no scientific training and yet have managed to convince a large share of the
population that global warming is a ‘hoax’ invented by the ‘liberal media’ (or in the
case of Trump, the ‘Chinese’)
• The recent election of Donald Trump has led to grave concerns about the future of
international treaties designed to curb GHG emissions and address the problem of
climate change
• In June of 2017, the Trump Administration formally announced that the United States
would withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord reached in 2015
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aX_FKhXOfiY
Capitalism vs the Climate?
• Many climate activists have argued that our capitalist market-oriented economic model has
actually led us to the current climate crisis and represents one of the major barriers to its
improvement
• Within the discipline of economics, an externality is the consequence of an economic
interaction experienced by a third party (i.e. someone not directly involved in this exchange)
and this can be either positive or negative
• Climate change represents a global negative externality in which the entire planet is affected
by the excess emissions of GHGs into the atmosphere
• Some economists have proposed the creation of a carbon market or cap and trade scheme in
which pollution allowances could be bought and sold as a way of discouraging GHG emissions
but so far there has been little progress toward the creation of such a market
• Others argue that such market fixes are inadequate to the scope of the problem and that what
is required is large scale collective action such as long-term planning, government regulation
of industry and the return of key infrastructure to public control
The Future (Looks Grim)
• Unless the world moves quickly to reduce GHG emissions, it is likely that we will pass the
point of no return (i.e. the point at which no amount of reductions in CO2 emissions
would prevent catastrophic global warming)
• There is some debate amongst climate scientists regarding where exactly this point lies,
but many believe that atmospheric concentrations of CO2 cannot exceed 450 ppm
(currently, we stand as 400 ppm and rising…)
• The economic costs associated with climate change are difficult to calculate but a recent
study published in the journal Nature estimated that unmitigated climate change could
reduce global GDP by a whopping 20 percent by 2100
• In addition to the economic consequences, it is likely that rising sea levels and
desertification will lead to widespread dislocations (read a global refugee crisis) and even
the disappearance of entire countries beneath the waves
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x10EbJymLz4
Hopeful Signs on the Horizon
• Despite some of the negative signs from the United States, other countries have taken
the lead on this issue and have made great progress in transitioning to renewable energy
sources
• Denmark, for example, is a leader in wind energy and in February of 2017, wind turbines
produced enough electricity to power the entire country
• Overall, renewable energy sources account for more than half of the energy generation
in the country and Denmark hopes to complete the transition to 100% renewable energy
sources by 2050
• Outside of Europe, developing countries such as Morocco have pledged to increase their
generation of renewable energy and decrease emissions significantly in the coming
decades
• Where does Turkey stand?
• http://climateactiontracker.org/countries.html