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15 HypothesisTesting
15 HypothesisTesting
Testing
Outline
Research question:
Non-directional:
No stated expectation about outcome
Example:
Do men and women differ in terms of conversational memory?
Hypothesis:
Statement of expected relationship
Directionality of relationship
Example:
Women will have greater conversational memory than men
Grounding Hypotheses in Theory
2. Type II Error
Reality: Relationship
Decision: Accept the null
Believe your research hypothesis has not received support when in
fact you should have rejected the null.
Analogy: Find a guilty man innocent of a crime
Potential outcomes of testing
Decision
Accept Null Reject Null
R
E No
A Relationship 1 2
L
I Relationship
T
Y 3 4
Potential outcomes of testing
Decision
Accept Null Reject Null
R
E No
2
Correct
A Relationship decision
L
I Relationship
T
Y 3 4
Potential outcomes of testing
Decision
Accept Null Reject Null
R
E No
A Relationship 1 2
L
I Relationship
T
3
Correct
Y decision
Potential outcomes of testing
Decision
Accept Null Reject Null
R
1
E No
Type I Error
A Relationship
L
I Relationship
3 4
T
Y
Potential outcomes of testing
Decision
Accept Null Reject Null
R
1 2
E No
A Relationship
L
I Relationship
4
T
Type II Error
Y
Potential outcomes of testing
Decision
Accept Null Reject Null
R
E No Correct
Type I Error
A Relationship decision
L
I Relationship
T
Correct
Type II Error
Y decision
Function of Statistical Tests
Statistical analysis:
Examines observed data
Calculates the probability that the results could occur by
chance (I.e., if Null was true)
Univariate analysis
One variable at a time (descriptive)
Bivariate analysis
Two variables at a time (testing relationships)
Multivariate analysis
More than two variables at a time (testing relationships and
controlling for other variables)
Variables
Dependent variable:
What we are trying to predict
E.g., Candidate preference
Independent variables:
What we are using as predictors
E.g., Gender, Party affiliation
Testing hypothesis for two
nominal variables
Variables Null hypothesis Procedure
Gender
related to gender
Pass/Fail
Testing hypothesis for one
nominal and one ratio variable
Variables Null hypothesis Procedure
Gender
related to gender
Test score
Testing hypothesis for one
nominal and one ratio variable
Variable Null hypothesis Procedure
Year in school
Score is not
related to year in
ANOVA
school
Test score
Can be used when nominal variable has more than two categories and can
include more than one independent variable
Testing hypothesis for two ratio
variables
Variable Null hypothesis
Procedure
Hours spent
spent studying
Test score
Testing hypothesis for more than
two ratio variables
Variable Null hypothesis Procedure
Hours spent
studying Score is positively
related to hours
Classes spent studying and Multiple
missed negatively related regression
to classes missed
Test score
Commonality across all statistical
analysis procedures
Set the significance level:
E.g., .05 level
Means that we are willing to conclude that there is a
relationship if:
Chance of Type I error is less than 5%
Variables Procedure
Nominal IV, Nominal DV Chi-square
Nominal IV, Ratio DV T-test
Multiple Nominal IVs, Ratio ANOVA
DV
Ratio IV, Ratio DV Pearson’s R
Multiple Nominal IVs, Ratio ANCOVA
DV with ratio covariates
Multiple ratio Multiple Regression