Fertility

Pt=P0 + (B-D)+(I-E)

Pt= Population at time t

P0= population at time 0
B=births
D= deaths
I= Immigrants
E= Emigrant
 Fertility
• Human fertility is responsible for biological replacement and for the maintenance
of the human society. So the study of human fertility occupies a central position
in the study of population for several reasons.

• Prior to the second world war, the approach to the study of human fertility was
mainly mathematically-oriented.

• The dynamic character of fertility was realised after the Great Depression of the
early 1930s.
• Baby boom: beginning in the late early 1940s and ending in the 1960s.
- There has been a great spurt in fertility studies in the developing countries,
especially after 1960
 Fertility
• Fertility is defined as the child bearing performance of a women or a group of
women measured in terms of actual number of children born.

• Age at which the women starts child bearing in most of the societies, begins with
the onset of ovulatory mensuration cycle or the marriage date whichever is later
and ends with the attainment of menopause or secondary sterility whichever is
earlier.

• With fertility level remaining constant and morality declining, the more and more
children survive longer and population becomes younger and younger.

• If fertility declines, the population necessarily become older due to decrease in the
child population.
 Fertility
• The term natality, fertility and birth generally refer to total live birth, henceforth
called births.

“ live birth is a complete expulsion or extraction from its mother of a product of

conception, irrespective of duration of pregnancy, which after such separation
breathes or shows any other evidence of life, such as beating of the heart etc.”
(WHO,1950).

Death is the permanent disappearance of all evidence of life at any time after a birth
has taken place.
Foetal Wastage (Foetal Death)
Termination of a pregnancy that did not result in a live birth is termed foetal wastage.
Still Birth: A pregnancy of more than 28 weeks of gestation that did not result in a
live birth is called still birth.
 Need of the fertility study

• Fertility behaviour of a given time gives shape to the future age-sex structure

• The study of fertility is vital for policymakers to get guidance for family planning
programmes.

• It may also help in the assessment of these policies and plans based on the
outcomes of the analysis.
 Some Concept

• Fecundity: Physiological capacity to reproduce or to conceive (reproductive

potential). Fecundity also refer to the maximum fertility level that can be
attained.
• Fecundability: It denotes the probability of a women conceiving within a
monthly menstrual cycle. Corrado Gini in 1924 as a way of improving the
understanding of the birth interval.

• Natural fertility: Natural fertility is the fertility that exists without any birth
control. Henry, 1953.

• Reproductive span: On and average the, reproductive span of women extends

over the ages between 15-49 years.
 Cont.…
• Theoretical maximum fertility/Hatterite fertility: A religious sect living on the
border of the US and Canada, called Hutterities, have recorded the highest
average for any community which was about 12 births per women.

• Infecundity (sterility) : Inability of a woman to conceive a pregnancy.

- Primary sterility = Never able to conceive a pregnancy
- Secondary sterility= Inability to conceive after one or more children have been
born.
• Woman Gravidity: Number of pregnancies a woman has had whether or not
they produce a live birth.

• Parity: It refers to the number of birth a woman has had i.e. if a woman has not
given any birth she is referred as zero-parity woman. Therefore, a woman who
has ‘n’ number of births is called n-parity woman.
 Cont.…
• Birth Order: Birth order refers to the order a child is born in the family; first-
born and second-born are examples. if a woman has two births the order of last
birth will be second. Therefore, Birth Order starts from 1, whereas, parity starts
from zero.
Parity : 0 1 2 n–1
Birth Order : 1 2 3 n
• Children Surviving (CS): The total number of children, which a woman has born
as live births and they are still alive, is called number of children surviving.

• Children ever born: CEB is the total number of children a woman has born till
the date.
CEB= child surviving (CS)+ child died (CD)
 Cont.…

• Family size: Total number of children a women or a couple has borne at a point
of time.
The complete family size indicates the total number of children borne by a women
up to the end of her reproductive period.

• Desired family size: Desired family size is the number of children wanted in
one's lifetime and is viewed as a measure of the demand for children which, in
combination with the supply of children and contraception determines the
number of children born.
 Sources of Data

• Vital registration systems/civil registration system (data on birth registration in

given period of time)

• National Censuses (age distribution of population, number of birth, CEB by

women age etc.)

• Nationally representative sample surveys, Demographic and Health Surveys

(DHS), etc. (Provide more detailed data on fertility)

https://crsorgi.gov.in/annual-report.html
https://dhsprogram.com/data/available-datasets.cfm
https://censusindia.gov.in/census.website/data/census-tables#
 Census Series
Series
Name Data on
A-01-A-11 Number of villages, towns, households, population and area (India,
states/UTs, districts and Sub-districts).
B01-B28 Data on Workers
C01-C07 Marital status
C08-C12 Education
C13-C14 Population in single years and quinquennial age group
C15 Religious community by age group and sex
C16-C19 Population by mother tongue, bilingualism and trilingualism etc.
C20-C30 Disability
D01-D13 Migration
F01- F14 Fertility
H01-H05 Houselisting and Housing Census data
HH01-
Households
HH14
FH01-FH09 Female headed households
 Demographic Health Survey (DHS)
Topic covers
Fertility, fertility preferences, family planning, marriage, women's
empowerment, sexual activity, reproductive health, child health,
environmental health, nutrition, AIDS and other sexually transmitted
diseases, and socioeconomic conditions.

The questionnaire modules on HIV/AIDS, maternal mortality, and

female genital mutilation have been used the most frequently.
In addition, some recent surveys include biomarker tests for
anaemia, HIV, syphilis, Diabetes, cholesterol, vitamin A, and
hepatitis B.

13
 NFHS
Aims
• to provide essential data on health and family welfare needed by the Ministry of
Health and Family Welfare and other agencies for policy and programme
purposes, and
• to provide information on important emerging health and family welfare issues.

NFHS-I (1992-93): 24 states/UTs; 89,777 EMW age13-49 years; 88, 562 HHs
NFHS-II (1998-99): information from 92486 household and 90303 ever married
women age 15-49 from 26 states
NFHS-III (2005-06): 109401 household and 124385 women 15-49 ages from 29
states.
NFHS-IV (2015-16): 699,686 EMW age 15–49 and 112,122 men aged 15–54 from
601,509 households; all states/UTs
NFHS-V (2019-21): fieldwork for India was conducted in two phases—Phase-I
from 17 June 2019 to 30 January 2020 covering 17 states and 5 UTs and Phase-II
from 2 January 2020 to 30 April 2021 covering 11 states and 3 Uts; gathered
information from 636,699 households, 724,115 women, and 101,839 men.
14
 SRS
a)Registration of births and deaths and b) the sample survey.
• The design of this system is based on an appropriate number of
small geographic sample.
• In each of these sample areas, a continuous record is kept of the
event of births and deaths as they occur.
• In the same time, in the sample area, information about births
and deaths along with the other relevant information is collected
through periodic retrospective sample surveys.
• The information obtained from both the methods is matched and
number of events missed by both procedure is mathematically
estimated.
• The unmatched and partially matched events are re-verified in the
field to get an unduplicated count of correct events.
Demographic Year Book
Population size, area, density, population growth,
population characteristics, number of birth and birth
rate, number of deaths and death rate number of
marriages and marriage rate etc.
 Some Problems While Measuring Fertility

• Choice of interval: one calendar year or some period of the reproductive life.

• Two persons involved: the measures of births can be defined either by mother’s
characteristics, or by father’s characteristics or by the couple characteristics

• Multiple births: unit of measurements: number of children born or the number

of confinements leading to these birth.

• Denominator of the birth rate: not all women in the population are married
and not all the married women capable of bearing child.

• Distinction between a live birth and still birth:

 Measures of fertility

Period measures of fertility

Period measures of fertility relate to a specific time period, for
example 2017, 2018
CWR, CBR, GFR, ASFR, TFR

Cohort measures of fertility

The cohort analysis of fertility is to observed how many children
a particular cohort (birth or marriage) has born during its life
time
CFS, PPR
 Child women ratio (CWR)
It is define as the number of children under age 5 per 1000
women of childbearing age in a given year.

CWR = × 1000

Where,
5P0 = number of children under 5 year of age in a particular time

49W15 = number of women in the age group 15-49 in a particular

time

 It is not an accurate measure of fertility, it is more a measure of population

structure
 The CWR of city ‘x’ may be calculated as follows:

Number of children under 5 years of age in year 2019 =27,59,472

Number of women in the age group 15-49 in year 2019 = 80,18,214

CWR= (2759472/8018214)*1000
=344.15

Interpretation: there were 344.15 children per 1000 women of

reproductive age (15-49 years)
 Child women ratio (CWR), 2011
BIHAR 554.0
MEGHALAYA 543.5
JAMMU & KASHMIR 458.0
JHARKHAND 457.4
DADRA & NAGAR HAVELI 440.2
RAJASTHAN 432.7
UTTAR PRADESH 428.1
MADHYA PRADESH 413.3
MIZORAM 410.2
ARUNACHAL PRADESH 394.2
ASSAM 388.7
CHHATTISGARH 378.6
NAGALAND 373.6
HARYANA 363.2
India 361.9
UTTARAKHAND 349.8
DAMAN & DIU 347.9
GUJARAT 345.0
ODISHA 326.9
MANIPUR 324.1
TRIPURA 315.4
MAHARASHTRA 315.2
NCT OF DELHI 302.5
KARNATAKA 299.2
WEST BENGAL 293.7
HIMACHAL PRADESH 290.1
PUNJAB 287.8
CHANDIGARH 287.6
LAKSHADWEEP 285.6
ANDHRA PRADESH 268.1
ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS 267.8
KERALA 262.9
TAMIL NADU 257.7
PUDUCHERRY 256.8
SIKKIM 251.0
GOA 250.6
0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0
 Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

It is defined as the ratio of total live births in a calendar

year in a particular area per 1000 of the total mid-year
population of that area.

B
CBR   1000
P
Where,
‘B’ is the total number of live births in a year
‘P’ is the total mid-year population in the same year
 The CBR of city ‘x’ for 2019 may be computed as follows:

Number of live birth in 2019 =532503

Total mid year population in year 2019 = 29098518

CBR= (532503/29098518)*1000
=18.30

Interpretation: There were 18.3 births per 1000 population in city….

Crude Birth Rate (CBR), India and bigger states/UTs, 2018
BIHAR 26.2
UTTAR PRADESH 25.6
MADHYA PRADESH 24.6
RAJASTHAN 24.0
JHARKHAND 22.6
CHHATTISGARH 22.5
ASSAM 21.1
HARYANA 20.3
INDIA 20.0
GUJARAT 19.7
ODISHA 18.2
KARNATAKA 17.2
TELANGANA 16.9
UTTARAKHAND 16.7
ANDHRA PRADESH 16.0
JAMMU & KASHMIR 15.7
HIMACHAL PRADESH 15.7
MAHARASHTRA 15.6
WEST BENGAL 15.0
PUNJAB 14.8
NCT OF DELHI 14.7
KERALA 13.9
TAMIL NADU 12.7
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0
 Advantages and Disadvantages of CBR
Advantages
• It indicates the level of fertility in a data
• It directly points to the calculation of fertility to the
growth rate of the population
• It requires minimum data and its computation is
quick and easy
Disadvantages
• CBR is affected by many factors such as age, sex,
marital composition.
• It is not very sensitive to small changes in fertility.
 General Fertility Rate (GFR)
The general fertility rate is the number of live births
per 1,000 women ages 15-49 in a given year.

B
GFR  1000
W 15 49
Where,
‘B’ is the total number of live births in a year
W15-49 is the mid-year female population of the child
bearing ages
 The GFR of city ‘x’ for year 2019 may be computed as
follows:

Number of live birth in 2019 =532503

Total mid year female population in year 2019 = 8108214

GFR= (532503/81082214)*1000
=65.67

Interpretation: There were 65.7 births per 1000 female

population ages 15-49 in city….
General Fertility Rate (GFR), India and bigger states UTs, 2018
BIHAR 99.8
UTTAR PRADESH 91.4
MADHYA PRADESH 91.2
RAJASTHAN 86.0
JHARKHAND 80.8
CHHATTISGARH 78.7
ASSAM 73.4
HARYANA 72.7
INDIA 70.4
GUJARAT 70.1
ODISHA 63.4
UTTARAKHAND 61.5
KARNATAKA 57.8
MAHARASHTRA 55.1
TELANGANA 55.0
HIMACHAL PRADESH 53.7
ANDHRA PRADESH 53.5
PUNJAB 52.3
TAMIL NADU 51.2
JAMMU & KASHMIR 50.4
NCT OF DELHI 50.3
WEST BENGAL 50.0
KERALA 48.6
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0
 Advantages and Disadvantages of GFR
Advantages
• It is a more acceptable measure of fertility level
because it removes from the denominator most of
the population who are not directly exposed to
child-bearing.
• It is easy to compute.
Disadvantages
• Unmarried women are also included in the
denominator.
• It does not control variations in age composition
within the reproductive age group.
Graphic Presentation of Age-Specific Fertility Rates, Madhya
Pradesh, 2018
250

195
200
175
ASFR (Per 1000)

150

107
100
61

50 40
37 31

0
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
Ager group
 Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)
ASFR is defined as the number of live births occurring per 1000
women in a specific age group for a specified geographic area
and for a specific point in time, usually a calendar year.

Bx
ASFR  5 f  X
5

5Wx
1000

Where,
5 x f is ASFR of women aged ‘x’ to ‘x+5’
5 x B is number of births to women aged ‘x’ to ‘x+5’
5 WX is number of women aged ‘x’ to ‘x+5’
 Advantages and Disadvantages of ASFR
Advantages
• ASFR is not affected by any variations in the age
structure
• A schedule of ASFRs reveal more information about
the child-bearing situation of a population at a given
time than any other measures of fertility.
Disadvantages

• When comparison between two population groups

has to be made
• Procedure is cumbersome
 ASFR (Age Specific Fertility rates), India and bigger States/UTs, 2018
India and bigger Age group
States/UTs 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
India 12.2 122.9 146.4 94.7 36.9 12.7 4.4
Andhra Pradesh 10.2 124.3 110.5 46.8 16.1 6.6 2.8
Assam 22.0 104.1 136.6 112.5 51.1 16.1 6.2
Bihar 11.9 139.7 219.7 171.4 59.9 22.8 6.6
Chhattisgarh 15.1 157.6 163.2 96.2 36.1 10.6 2.3
Delhi 3.2 74.1 114.7 65.7 24.6 8.0 1.7
Gujarat 10.9 135.5 153.6 82.5 28.1 8.8 3.4
Haryana 5.0 118.3 169.1 91.4 33.7 10.6 7.0
Himachal Pradesh 11.5 80.9 117.3 79.3 26.5 4.5 1.4
Jammu & Kashmir 3.1 39.8 84.2 104.2 60.3 19.8 6.5
Jharkhand 13.9 139.2 162.9 108.4 44.9 23.5 4.6
Karnataka 7.9 102.2 120.7 76.7 22.8 5.9 3.2
Kerala 11.9 88.2 111.6 83.5 29.3 6.2 0.7
Madhya Pradesh 15.5 165.6 198.8 102.7 42.2 13.0 4.0
Maharashtra 8.8 119.1 107.2 69.0 21.1 6.1 1.6
Odisha 10.3 112.8 129.2 78.5 28.9 11.8 2.7
Punjab 4.5 78.7 109.0 76.8 32.4 9.9 3.5
Rajasthan 9.0 154.0 187.6 100.1 39.0 11.8 6.0
Tamil Nadu 8.6 95.6 122.7 64.3 19.3 3.1 1.3
Telangana 7.0 112.5 117.5 59.1 16.6 7.4 2.5
Uttar Pradesh 8.5 124.9 189.1 147.8 72.8 28.7 10.4
Uttarakhand 5.5 93.6 133.7 77.9 34.9 9.6 3.5
West Bengal 33.4 115.0 69.9 56.6 18.5 7.9 3.5
 Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
It is defined as the average number of children a cohort
of women would bear if they survived through the entire
reproductive ages and experienced a fixed schedule of
age specific fertility rate.

45 49

TFR  5   ASFR1519

Where,
ASFR is the age-specific fertility rates
Total Fertility Rate (TFR), India and bigger States/ UTs, 2018
Bihar 3.2
Uttar Pradesh 2.9
Madhya Pradesh 2.7
Rajasthan 2.5
Jharkhand 2.5
Chhattisgarh 2.4
Haryana 2.2
Assam 2.2
India 2.2
Gujarat 2.1
Odisha 1.9
Uttarakhand 1.8
Maharashtra 1.7
Kerala 1.7
Karnataka 1.7
Telangana 1.6
Tamil Nadu 1.6
Punjab 1.6
Jammu & Kashmir 1.6
Himachal Pradesh 1.6 Delhi recorded the lowest TFR, with one
Andhra Pradesh 1.6 woman bearing 1.5 children on average;
West Bengal 1.5 Bihar recorded the highest TFR of 3.2
Delhi 1.5 children per woman.
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
 Advantages and Disadvantages of TFR
Advantages
• It is an effective summary rate for describing the frequency of
child-bearing in a year
• It is a standardized measure of fertility
• It is useful for comparing the fertility levels of two populations
• It provides the average completed family size

Disadvantage
• It does not provide any information about the distribution of
fertility among the age groups which can influence the value
of CBR and thus the growth rate of population.
• Does not give a measure of actual number of births any
women will have all through her reproductive years.
 Classroom practice: Calculate CBR, GFR, ASFR and TFR from the given data
Number of birth Female Population
Age group (1) (2) (3)
15-19 46474 1593505
20-24 239237 1602390
25-29 175342 1390614
30-34 53027 1127005
35-39 14554 967062
40-44 3408 783424
45-49 461 644214
Total 532503 8108214

Total mid-year female

Population 29098518

CBR =
GFR =
Total ASFR (annual) =
Total ASFR (five year
period) =
TFR =
Classroom practice: Calculate the CBR, GFR, ASFR and TFR from
the given data
Female ASFR(per 1000 women)
Number of birth
Age group Population 2/3*1000
15-19 46474 1593505 29.2
20-24 239237 1602390 149.3
25-29 175342 1390614 126.1
30-34 53027 1127005 47.1
35-39 14554 967062 15.0
40-44 3408 783424 4.4
45-49 461 644214 0.7
Total 532503 8108214 371.7

Total mid-year
Population 29098518

CBR = 18.3
GFR = 65.7
Total ASFR (annual) = 371.7
Total ASFR (five year
period) = 1858.6
TFR = 1.9
Standardised rates
Sex Age Adjusted Birth RATE (SAABR)
Sex Age-Adjusted Birth Rate (SAABR) is another measure that
reduces the effects of age structure to a minimum. And hence,
facilitates the comparison of the fertility levels of two or more
populations.

SAABR = B/ (∑wi *Wi)*100

Where,
B=total births
wi= standard weight for age group (15-19, 20-24 and so on)
Wi= number of women on the ith age group
Coale’s Indices
• In the late 1960s, A.J. Coale developed four indices of fertility. He devised
the indices for expressing the fertility in ways that show the contribution
of Malthusian and neo Malthusian factors.

If = Index of overall fertility

Ig = Index of marital fertility
Ih = Index of non-marital fertility
Im = Index of proportion married

Coals chose the standard schedules of births per married woman in each age
group as below:

Age group 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49

ASMFR 0.300 0.550 .502 .447 .406 .222 0.061
 Coale’s Indices
• Index of overall fertility (If)

• Index of marital fertility (Ig)

Where,
i= 1,2, 3,4….7 age groups
fi = number of births per women in the ith quinquennial age group starting from 15-19
Fi = birth per women in the ith age group in the standard population
Wi= number of women in the ith age group
gi= birth per married women in the ith age group
Mi= number of married women in the ith age group
 Coale’s Indices
• Index of non-marital fertility (Ih)

• Index of proportion married (Im):

Where,
i= 1,2, 3,4….7 age groups
Fi = birth per women in the ith age group in the standard population
hi= births per non-married women in the ith age group
Wi= number of women in the ith age group
Mi= number of married women in the ith age group
Ui= number of unmarried women in the ith age group
Coale’s Indices
If = Ig * Im + (1-Im) *Ih

In the societies where fertility of non-married women is

negligible, we have

If= Ig* Im
 Fertility rates specific for order of births
General order specific birth rate: *100
GFR= ∑GOSFR(i)
Age Order specific fertility rate (AOSFR) can be defined as

Where,
= births of order i to the women at age x
Wx= number of women at age x.

Therefore,

Where, n is the last order of birth.

 Cohort Measure of Fertility
The objective of cohort analysis of fertility is to observe how many children a particular cohort
has born during its life-time.
The need to study of cohort fertility is due to the fact that each cohort experience age patterns
of fertility which is not exactly duplicated by any other real cohort.
The ASFR for successive single ages from age 15 onwards in successive years may be combined
to derive the cumulative fertility rate by any age cohort as
Birth Probabilities
Birth probability by ages of women
Px= ≃
Where,
Px denotes the age specific probability of birth for age x
denotes the deaths among the female aged x within a year
refers to the women of age x at the mid year.
 Parity progression ratio (PPR)
• The PPR are the proportion of women who move from a given parity to the
next during their lifetime.
• It is simply the probability of a women having another child given that she has
already had certain number of children. The PPR a1 for a women in defined as
the probability that a women of parity i will have at least one more child. It is
defined as
a 0= m 1+
a1= m2+/m1+
.

ai= mi+1+/mi+
Where, m1+, m2+….mi+1 are the proportion of married women in a given year who
had 1 or more, 2 or more,…..,i+1 or more children;
and a0, a1, ai denote the change that a family will be enlarged by a additional child.

The PPR is generally calculated for marriage or birth cohorts of women who have
completed their child bearing.
Calculate the PPR for married women aged 45-49 years of Pune
district enumerated in 2020

Number of women
CEB
aged 45-49 years
0 14352
1 26548
2 29268
3 33271
4 39448
5 44928
6 48252
7 49401
8 46789
9 41112
10+ 80995
Calculate the PPR for married women aged 45-49 years of Pune
district enumerated in 2020

Number of women No. of women parity

CEB PPR
aged 45-49 years i and above
0 14352 454364 0.968
1 26548 440012 0.940
2 29268 413464 0.929
3 33271 384196 0.913
4 39448 350925 0.888
5 44928 311477 0.856
6 48252 266549 0.819
7 49401 218297 0.774
8 46789 168896 0.723
9 41112 122107 0.663
10+ 80995 80995 0
Calculate the PPR for married women age 45-49 years
of Bhopal Enumerated in 2001 and 2011

Parity Number of women

2001 2011

0 71178 126287

1 149814 219440

2 159385 258226

3 137308 190884

4 120968 144175

5 92169 101344

6+ 148811 164464
 Calculate the PPR for married women age 45-49 years
of Bhopal Enumerated in 2001 and 2011

Number of women parity i Parity progression ratio Symbol

Parity Number of women and above (per 1000 women)

2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2011

0 71178 126287 879633 1204820 919 895 a0

1 149814 219440 808455 1078533 815 797 a1

2 159385 258226 658641 859093 758 699 a2

3 137308 190884 499256 600867 725 682 a3

4 120968 144175 361948 409983 666 648 a4

5 92169 101344 240980 265808 618 619 a5

6+ 148811 164464 148811 164464 a6

 Measures of Reproduction

Reproduction deals with the ability of a population to replace itself and to grow.
 Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)
GRR is the average number of daughters that would be born to a women (or group of
women) during her lifetime if she passed through her child bearing years conforming to
the age specific fertility rate of a given year.

45 49
 5 Bxf 
GRR  5 *   
1519  5Wx 
Where,

5 Bfx is the number of female live births to women of the age group ‘x’ to ‘x+5’

5 Wx is the mid-year female population of the age group ‘x’ to ‘x+5’

GRR is age specific rate, considering only female births.

GRR, like TFR, assumes that the hypothetical cohort of women pass from birth through
their reproductive life without experiencing mortality.
GRR is a replacement index of the population indicating a potential fertility of the
future
 Calculate the GRR from the given data

Age group Female Population Female births ASFR

15-19 3000 50
20-24 2500 400
25-29 2200 300
30-34 2000 100
35-39 1800 60
40-44 1500 30
45-49 1200 10
Total

GRR

GRR per women

 Calculate the GRR from the given data

Age group Female Population Female births ASFR

15-19 3000 50 16.67
20-24 2500 400 160.00
25-29 2200 300 136.36
30-34 2000 100 50.00
35-39 1800 60 33.33
40-44 1500 30 20.00
45-49 1200 10 8.33
Total 424.7

GRR 2123.5 (424.7*5)

GRR per women 2.123485 (2123.5/1000)

Relationship between GRR and TFR
GRR = TFR * 1/(1+SRB)

For Sex ratio at birth (SRB)=1.05

GRR = TFR * 1/(1+1.05)

GRR = TFR * 1/(2.05)

 GRR calculation
Female ASFR(per 1000 women)
Number of birth (2)
Age group (1) Population (3) 2/3*1000
15-19 46474 1593505 29.2
20-24 239237 1602390 149.3
25-29 175342 1390614 126.1
30-34 53027 1127005 47.1
35-39 14554 967062 15.0
40-44 3408 783424 4.4
45-49 461 644214 0.7
Total 532503 8108214 371.7

Total Population 29098518

SRB 1.05
Total ASFR (annual) = 371.7
Total ASFR (five year
period) = 1858.6
TFR ( 1858.6/1000) = 1.9
GRR = 0.91
 Net Reproduction Rate (NRR)
It is defined as the total number of daughters that a cohort of women would bear
if they survived through the entire reproductive ages and experienced a fixed
schedule of fertility and mortality rates.

Where,

ASFR is the age specific fertility rates, considering only female births.
Lx is the person years lived by a women in the hypothetical cohort, taken from the female
life table. In other words, this is number of daughter who replaces their mothers.
 Calculate the NRR from the given data

Age group Female Population Female births Survival rate

15-19 3000 50 0.9
20-24 2500 400 0.9
25-29 2200 300 0.8
30-34 2000 100 0.8
35-39 1800 60 0.8
40-44 1500 30 0.8
45-49 1200 10 0.7
 Calculate the NRR from the given data

Age Female Female Survival rate ASFR ASFR*S

group (1) Population (2) births (3) (4) (5=3/2) (4*5)
15-19 3000 50 0.9 16.67 15.00
20-24 2500 400 0.9 160.00 144.00
25-29 2200 300 0.8 136.36 109.09
30-34 2000 100 0.8 50.00 40.00
35-39 1800 60 0.8 33.33 26.67
40-44 1500 30 0.8 20.00 16.00
45-49 1200 10 0.7 8.33 5.83
Total 14200 950 5.7 424.7 356.59

GRR 2123.5
GRR per women 2.1
NRR 1783.0
NRR per women 1.8
 Net Reproduction Rate (NRR)
Net Reproductive Rate (NRR)
• It is similar to Gross Reproductive Rate (GRR) but takes into account that some females
will die before completing their childbearing years. So NRR is always lower than GRR.

• NRR=1, means that each generation of mothers is having exactly enough daughters to
replace themselves in the population and population remains constant.

• If NRR<1, the reproductive performance of the population is below replacement level

and a negative growth rate in the long run.

• If NRR>1, more than replacement; there will be a greater number of mothers in next
generation which will tend to increase the population.
 Replacement-Level Fertility
Replacement-Level Fertility:
It is defined as “the number of children that a women, on average,
must produce in order for a population to ultimately reach a
stationary state (‘zero population growth’ position) – neither growing
nor declining”
An NRR of 1.0 (or unity) is equal to replacement level
• In the developed countries today,
– TFR = 2.1 births per woman

– GFR = 60 births per 1000 women aged 15-49 per year, or

– CBR = 16 births per 1000 population per year

– NRR=1 daughters per women

are considered to represent approximate replacement level

Reproduction of Population when NRR=3
Thank you