Title

Managing uncertainty in Product

Development Project Scheduling
with Design Structures Matrices
(DSM)
Part IV

2007 年 7 月 20 日 大里研究室セミ
経営情報システム工学専門
David Murcia
2024年5月31日（金曜 1
日）
Summary
• Review
• Project Re-scheduling
• Task Delay
• Iteration Block
• Uncertainty in NPD projects
• Uncertainty in activity duration
• Expert assumption
• Probabilistic distribution
• Discrete system modeling with fuzzy numbers
• Conclusion

2024年5月31日（金曜 2
日）
Review
GENERAL SCHEME
BUILDING/CREATING THE DSM
1. DEFINE THE SYSTEM ELEMENTS,
2. LIST ALL ELEMENTS,
3. STUDY THE DEPENDENCY FLOW BETWEEN ELEMENTS,
4. BUILD A MATRIX TO REPRESENTS THE RELATIONSHIPS,

PROJECT SCHEDULING
1. PARTITIONING ALGORITHM,
2. TEARING ALGORITHM,

PROJECT RE-SCHEDULING

1. DISPLAY THE EFFECTS OF DELAY TASK/S

2. DISPLAY THE EFFECTS OF ITERATIONS OF COUPLED TASK,

2024年5月31日（金曜 3
日）
Project Scheduling
Task List and relationships

No. Task List Duration (t) Successor

1 A 1 B, C, D, H
2 B 1.5 A, C, E, F, G, J
3 C 0.5 D, F, J, O
4 D 1 G, N
5 E 2.5 I
6 F 1 H
7 G 1.5 I
8 H 4 K
9 I 1 J, M, S
10 J 2 L
11 K 1.5 N
12 L 5 E, O
13 M 1 P, T
14 N 3 K, P
15 O 0.5 M, Q
16 P 2 F, N, T
17 Q 1 R
18 R 1.5 F, Q
19 S 2.5 L, M
20 T 2
Table 1. Task list, relationships
2024年5月31日（金曜 4
日）
Project Scheduling
Partitioned DSM
A B C D G E I J L S O M Q R F H K N P T
A X
B X
C X X
D X X Iteration
G
E
X
X
X
X
Blocks
I X X
J X X X
L X X
S X
O X X
M X X X
Q X X
R X
F X X X X
H X X
K X X
N X X X
P X X
T X X
2024年5月31日（金曜 Table 2. Case study partitioned DSM 5
日）
Project Scheduling
GANTT CHART

IGNORE COUPLED ACTIVITIES (marks up-diagonal) FOR 1 st task sequencing

Iteration Blocks

Buffer time = 50 % Project Total time

Fig. 1. Gantt Chart – 1st Sequence approach Due time: 30 t Buffer: 15 t

2024年5月31日（金曜 6
日）
Project Scheduling
CRITICAL PATH

Notation

J – current task ES - earliest start time

i – subset of predecessors task EF - earliest finish time

k – subset of successors task LF - latest finish time

D – Duration of task LS - latest start time

TF – Total Float
Equations

ESj = Max [ESi + Di ]

EFj =ESj+ Dj

LSi= Min [LSk – Dk]

LFi = LSi + Dk
FTi= LSi – ESi, If FTi = 0 , the activity is CRITICAL.

2024年5月31日（金曜 7
日）
Project Scheduling
CRITICAL PATH WITH DSM
2. Estimate the Float
3.
1. Lately
Early time
start
startfor
ofoftask
each
taskESj
task =FTi
LSi= Max [ESi– ESi
min{LSk
= LSi + Di ]
Dk}

A B C D G E I J L S O M Q R F H K N P T TT
ESj 0.0 1.0 2.5 3.0 4.0 2.5 5.5 6.5 8.5 6.5 13.5 14.0 14.0 15.0 16.5 17.5 21.5 23.0 26.0 28.0 30.0
LSj 0.0 1.0 2.5 3.0 4.0 3.0 5.5 6.5 8.5 22.5 13.5 25.0 14.0 15.0 16.5 17.5 21.5 23.0 26.0 28.0 30.0
FT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.0 0.0 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0
A
B 1.0
C 1.0 1.5
D 1.0 0.0 0.5
G 0.0 1.5 0.0 1.0
E 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
I 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 2.5
J 0.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
L 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
S 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 NON
O
M
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
5.0
0.0
0.0
2.5 0.5
CRITICAL
Q 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 TASK
R 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
F 0.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
H 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
K 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0
N 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
P 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
T 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0

Table 3. Early Start, Latest Start and Float Time of task

2024年5月31日（金曜 8
日）
Project Scheduling
GANTT CHART

NON CRITICAL TASK

CRITICAL TASK

Fig. 2. Gantt Chart – Critical Path

CRITICAL TASK are task which its Float time is 0. It means that a delay of a CRITICAL TASK will
compromise the achievement of project due date.

2024年5月31日（金曜 9
日）
Task Delay
Display the effects of Delayed task

Start
SITUATIONS:
Name & time of delay of task or tasks
1. Delayed task is a CRITICAL
TASK. all the successors and
the project due date will be
Check for NO affected.
successors
affected
2. Delayed task is NON
YES CRITICAL, we must evaluate
the effect of the delay
Revise the start and finish time of
affected or tasks

Show the OVER RUN of the project

FINISH

Fig. 3. Algorithm to display the delay effects of a task

2024年5月31日（金曜 10
日）
 START

Receive the name of the activity on iteration

block that arise.

Calculate the new duration of the activity in

the iteration block

Revise the start time of activities in the

iteration block

Revise the start and finish time of the delayed

activity and successors affected

Show the project overrun

FINISH

Fig. 3. Algorithm to display the delay effects of a task

2024年5月31日（金曜 11
日）
Task Delay
Task ‘J’ delayed 3 u/t. Trace forward for susceptible successors affected task via going down a
column in the DSM
Fix one or the immediately successors affected task as the new trace point and continuing
tracing till you reach the last task of the project. Continue with all possible paths.
In our case susceptible affected task list are L, O, M, Q, R, F, H, K, N, P and T.

A B C D G E I J L S O M Q R F H K N P T
A X
B X
C X X
D X X
G X X
E X X MANAGERIAL ACTIONS
I X X
J X X X
L X X 1. Consume Project buffer time,
S X
O X X 2. Shortened task affected to achieve the
M X X X
Q X X project due date.
R X
F X X X X
H X X
K X X
N X X X
P X X
T X X
Fig. 4. Task susceptible to be affected

2024年5月31日（金曜 12
日）
Task Delay
The Early start of task affected and the project due date must be incremented proportionally as
the delay time. See the resulting DSM:
A B C D G E I J L S O M Q R F H K N P T
ESj 0.0 1.0 2.5 3.0 4.0 2.5 5.5 6.5 11.5 6.5 16.5 17.0 17.0 18.0 19.5 20.5 24.5 26.0 29.0 31.0 3 3.0
LSj 0.0 1.0 2.5 3.0 4.0 3.0 5.5 6.5 8.5 22.5 13.5 25.0 14.0 15.0 16.5 17.5 21.5 23.0 26.0 28.0 30.0
FT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 -3.0 16.0 -3.0 8.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0
A
B 1.0
C
D
1.0
1.0
1.5
0.0 0.5
What we do
G 0.0 1.5 0.0 1.0 with this delay
E
I
0.0
0.0
1.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.5 2.5
time ??
J 0.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
L 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0
S 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0
O 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0
M 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.5
Q 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0
R 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
F 0.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
H 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
K 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0
N 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
P 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
T 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0

Table 4. DSM with the delay effects

2024年5月31日（金曜 13
日）
Task Delay
Consume Project buffer time

TASK DELAY

PROJECT OVER-RUN TIME

Fig 5. Gantt Chart – Display the task delay of Due time: 33 t Buffer time: 12 t
CRITICAL TASK

Increment the START TIME of affected task and reduce PROJECT BUFFER
equally as the delay time
2024年5月31日（金曜 14
日）
Task Delay
Task shortened

As a result, tasks L, O, Q, R, F, H, K, N, P, T need to be shortened in order to

commit to the initial project due time. Lets estimate the shortened time for each
task (tis)
Td 3 u/t
Ec 1.
Activities tj tis % Re d.
L 5 0.70 13.95%
Notation O 0.5 0.07 13.95%
k: index of task affected that must Q 1 0.14 13.95%
to be shortened R 1.5 0.21 13.95%
F 1 0.14 13.95%
tis: The shortened time of each task
H 4 0.56 13.95%
Td: The overdue time of the entire K 1.5 0.21 13.95%
project N 3 0.42 13.95%
tj: Duration of the jth task P 2 0.28 13.95%
Ti: Duration of the ith task that must T 2 0.28 13.95%
∑tj 22 3.00
to be shortened
Table 5. Total time to be shortened by
2024年5月31日（金曜 task affected 15
日）
Task Delay
Shortened Task

TASK DELAY: 3 t

Due time: 30 t Buffer time: 15 t

Fig 6. Gantt Chart – Shortened task

Reduce the duration of affected task and maintain PROJECT BUFFER

2024年5月31日（金曜 16
日）
Task Delay
Now is Task ‘S’ which is delayed 3 unit of time. Trace forward for susceptible successors affected
task. Susceptible affected task list are M, P and T.
A B C D G E I J L S O M Q R F H K N P T
A X
B X Tasks S and M is a NON CRITICAL TASK so
C X X
D X X
the Project due date only be delayed if the
G X X delay time is bigger than the float time of M.
E X X
I X X
J
L
X X X
X X
In case the immediately successors affected are
S X not part of the Critical Path, If the DELAY
O X X
M X X X TIME task is bigger than the FLOAT TIME
Q X X of the tasks affected we have a NEW
R X
F X X X X CRITICAL PATH.
H X X
K X X
N X X X
P X X
T X X

Fig. 7 Task susceptible to be affected

Let’s see what’s happen with the DSM !!

2024年5月31日（金曜 17
日）
Task Delay
Although the Task S had a delay the Early start of task affected and the project due date remain
unchanged. See the resulting DSM:
A B C D G E I J L S O M Q R F H K N P T
ESj 0.0 1.0 2.5 3.0 4.0 2.5 5.5 6.5 11.5 6.5 16.5 17.0 17.0 18.0 19.5 20.5 24.5 26.0 29.0 31.0 33.0
LSj 0.0 1.0 2.5 3.0 4.0 3.0 5.5 6.5 8.5 22.5 13.5 25.0 14.0 15.0 16.5 17.5 21.5 23.0 26.0 28.0 30.0
FT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 -3.0 16.0 -3.0 8.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0
A
B 1.0
C 1.0 1.5
D 1.0 0.0 0.5
G 0.0 1.5 0.0 1.0
E 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 PROJECT DUE
I 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 2.5
J 0.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
DATE NOT
L 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 .0 CHANGE.
S 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0
O 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0
M 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 5 .5 0.5
Q 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0
R 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
F 0.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 Early Start of M
H 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
K 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 remains
N 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 unchanged
P 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
T 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0

Table 6. DSM with the delay effects of NON CRITICAL TASK

2024年5月31日（金曜 18
日）
Task Delay
TASKS DELAY: 3 t

Due time: 33 t Buffer time: 12 t

Fig. 8. Gantt Chart – Display the task delay of NON CRITICAL TASK

2024年5月31日（金曜 19
日）
Iteration Block
Display the effects of Iteration Block
Start
NEW:
Name of the task on Iteration Block
that arise
Estimate the effect of the
Calculate the new duration of the task
iteration within the task of
in the iteration block the iteration block that
arise and expand the
Revise the start time of tasks in the effects to the affected task.
iteration block

Check for NO
successors
affected

YES
Revise the start and finish time of
affected or tasks

Show the OVER RUN of the project

Fig. 9. How to display the effects of
FINISH iteration block
2024年5月31日（金曜 20
日）
Iteration block
Estimate the new task duration

Equations

Din = Dk1* ∑nn=1βin

Notation

Din : duration of the task i in nth iteration

Dk1: duration of the task i in 1st iteration
β in :Coefficient assessed by schedulers to predict the task duration on n th iteration

In the DSM we re-sequence the iteration block and estimate the new starting time of task.
Continuing with our original example let’s see how to incorporate an iteration block.

First we insert the same number of row and columns than the number of task that perform the
iteration block arisen and fulfill the new added task with the same relationships as the original
iteration block and changing the value of the activity duration by the calculated ones. In our example
the βin assumed for all the activities is 0.8

2024年5月31日（金曜 21
日）
Iteration block
Estimate the new task start time and project over
run
A B C D G E I J L S E1 I1 J1 L1 S1 O M Q R F H K N P T TT
ESj 0.0 1.0 2.5 3.0 4.0 2.5 5.5 6.5 8.5 6.5 13.5 15.5 16.3 17.9 16.3 21.9 22.4 22.4 23.4 24.9 25.9 29.9 31.4 34.4 36.4 38.4
LSj 0.0 1.0 2.5 3.0 4.0 3.0 5.5 6.5 8.5 22.5 3.0 5.5 6.5 8.5 22.5 13.5 25.0 14.0 15.0 16.5 17.5 21.5 23.0 26.0 28.0 30.0
FT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.0 #### #### -9.8 -9.4 6.2 -8.4 2.6 -8.4 -8.4 -8.4 -8.4 -8.4 -8.4 -8.4 -8.4 -8.4
A
B 1.0
C 1.0 1.5
D 1.0 0.0 0.5
G 0.0 1.5 0.0 1.0
E 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
I 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 2.5
J 0.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
L 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
S 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0
E1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0
I1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
J1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
L1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
S1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0
O 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.0
M 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.5
Q 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0
R 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
F 0.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
H 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
K 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0
N 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
P 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
T 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0

2024年5月31日（金曜 Table 7. DSM when ITERATION BLOCK arise 22

日）
Iteration block
Consume Project Buffer

ITERATION BLOCK 1 DELAY: 8.4

T

Due time: 38.4 t

Buffer time: 6.6 t
Fig. 10. Gantt displaying to display the effects of iteration block
2024年5月31日（金曜 23
日）
Uncertainty in NPD projects
Deterministic – Non Deterministic

Estimating the project due date in reality is more complicated because of, more usually than
desired, we do not have enough data to use deterministic input in:

1. Task duration (non-deterministic)

2. Total number of iteration that will arise per block (non-deterministic)

To deal with this non-deterministic parameters;

1. Experts assumption,

2. Probabilistic distributions, how to find the most suitable distribution.

3. Discrete events simulation, how to model the activity network into a discrete-event
system.

2024年5月31日（金曜 24
日）
Uncertainty in activity duration
Experts assumption

In respect to such situations, the estimation of activity durations by experienced engineers or

experts is often adopted .

One suitable method to work with expert assumption is PERT that allow us to estimate the
project due date by given three activity duration corresponding to a three scenarios:
optimistic, expected and pessimistic and the weight for each scenario. The result is the
optimistic, expected and pessimistic project due date.

But all of this approach and methods, therefore, more often than not, there is subjectivity,
vagueness or imprecision in the estimated activity duration.

7 days …
10 days ??

2024年5月31日（金曜 25
日）
Probabilistic Distributions
Probabilistic Distributions

The most widely used distributions are: Normal, exponential, Gamma, Poisson, Erlang, Weibull,
etc… In our case, which is the most suitable distribution? A normal distribution?

As an example we can think about the time it

takes to come every day from your home to the
Lab.

We can assume that in the best scenario i

t takes at least 15~18 minutes. But many
incontrollable circumstances can delay u
s: Crowed street, accidents, earthquakes,
…

Thinking carefully in average we spent 30

minutes.
15 20 40 45
Fig. 11. Normal distribution with μ = 30 and σ = 8,

2024年5月31日（金曜 26
日）
Probabilistic Distributions
Poisson Distribution

What is the worst scenario we can imagine? Of course that we never arrive at our Lab… Is the
normal distribution suitable to describe this scenario or is more similar to this distribution?

Normal distribution
Poisson distribution

Dealing with uncertainty activity

duration is a similar problem that the
described before.

15 20 40 45 60 80 100

Fig. 12. Poisson distribution

2024年5月31日（金曜 27
日）
Probabilistic Distributions
Poisson Distribution

The Poisson distributions are applied to various phenomena of discrete nature (that is, those
that may happen 0, 1, 2, 3, ... times during a given period of time or in a given area) whenever
the probability of the phenomenon happening is constant in time or space. The probability
that there are exactly k occurrences is:

Where
e is the base of the natural logarithm
k is the number of occurrences of an event - the probability of which is given by
the function
k! is the factorial of k
λ is the mean a positive real number, equal to the expected number of
occurrences that occur during the given interval.

2024年5月31日（金曜 28
日）
Discrete-event System Modeling
Discrete-event

Discrete event simulation is used to describe and analyze the system, ask what-if questions
about the real time and aid analysis and design of management policies.
When modeling the quality of the input determines the quality of the system. Modeling
activity duration is usually achieved by expert assumption or by probabilistic distributions
but we have so much problems:

1. We are lack of data or sample data is not enough

2. Time-consuming to collect or gather data
3. Expensive
4. How to define a probabilistic distribution that fit our system
5. Subjectivities in selection distribution or estimating parameters

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Discrete-event System Modeling
Discrete-event system modeling

FUZZY THEORY provides a good mathematical methodology to describe and handle the
problem of vague and imprecise activity duration.

FUZZY SET THEORY has been applied to network based planning techniques. The
combination of FUZZY SET THEORY with DISCRETE-EVENT SIMULATION to
handle subjectivity vagueness or imprecision in estimating activity duration could be a good
solution to manage uncertainty in activity network.

Although many types of fuzzy sets have been used to describe activity uncertainty,
TRIANGULAR AND TRAPEZOIDAL FUZZY sets are very often used in the
applications because the parameters defining them can be easily specified in linguistic
terms

15 20 40 45 60 80 100
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Discrete-event System Modeling
Activity duration: Triangular and Trapezoidal fuzzy set
An uncertain activity duration can be described by a fuzzy number defined by its membership
function μD(x) associated with numerical value in the interval of [0,1], i.e. D = { (μD(x))
| xЄD}, μD(x)Є[0,1]

When activity duration is described using linguistic terms such as ‘‘most likely between Dm1
and Dm2, but definitely not less than D1 and not greater than D2’’ the trapezoidal fuzzy
numbers describe this activity duration.

Fig. 13. Triangular and Trapezoidal fuzzy set membership function

A trapezoidal fuzzy number can be reduced to a triangular one when D m1 = Dm2.

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Discrete-event System Modeling
Simulation advancement problem with Fuzzy
activity duration
Simulation strategy:
1. Activity scanning (AS)
2. Event scheduling (ES)
3. Process interaction (PI)

Activity Scanning (AS)

Activity Scanning (AS) merged the fuzzy number theory to develop the fuzzy discrete-event
simulation system.

The simulation advances through checking activities start conditions (completion of the
preceding activities) and updating the simulation time from now to next time of the end
activity that will happen the earliest. The start time of an activity should be the latest available
time of the required logical dependencies.

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Discrete-event System Modeling
Activity Scanning (AS)
The simulation time (m Now) will be successively updated to the four end activities that are due at
times m Now1 (initialized as 0), m Now2, m Now3, and m Now4.

Fig. 14. Time advancement is the AS-based simulation strategy

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Discrete-event System Modeling
Activity Scanning (AS)
 Activation of an activity, where the start time of an activity is determined;

TS(i) = max J=1,…J {TA(i,j)}

where j is the total quantity of predecessors activities required by activity i. TS(i) is the start time
of activity i; TA(I,j) is the time of entity j at activity i.
 Determination of the due time of an end activity, which should equal the start time of the current
activity plus its activity duration;

TEE(k) = TS(i) + D(i)

where TEE(k) is the due time of end activity k, recorded in the end activity list; D(i) is the
duration of activity i.
 Simulation advancement and end activity selection: the simulation time is updated to the time of
next one or more end activities that will happen the earliest and the end activities that are due at
the updated simulation time will be selected for initiation;

m_Now = min k=1,…k TEE(k)

where m_Now is the simulation time and K is the number of end activities recorded in the end
activity list.
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Discrete-event System Modeling
Activity Scanning (AS)
When FUZZY NUMBERS are used to represent activity durations, all the times in the above
operations become fuzzy numbers.

 Start time of an activity;

TS(i) = max J=1,…J {TA(i,j)}

 Due time of an activity; (fuzzy addition)

TEE(k) = TS(i) D(i)

 Simulation advancement and end activity selection;

m_Now = min k=1,…k TEE(k)

Where i is the total number of activities. If the fuzzy duration of activity i is (D1; Dm1; Dm2; D2), the
fuzzy occurring time of end activity k is (T1EE(k), Tm1EE(k), Tm2EE(k), T2EE(k)) and the fuzzy start
time of activity i is (T1S(i), Tm1S(i), Tm2S(i), T2S(i)) then;

(T1EE(k), Tm1EE(k), Tm2EE(k), T2EE(k)) = (T1S(i) + D1; Tm1S(i) + Dm1; Tm2S(i) + Dm2; T2S(i) +D2)

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Discrete-event System Modeling
Activity Scanning (AS)
When FUZZY NUMBERS are used to represent activity durations, ALL THE TIMES IN THE
ABOVE OPERATIONS BECOME FUZZY NUMBERS.
The fuzzy operations require comparing fuzzy numbers (FUZZY NUMBER RANKING
PROBLEM). The simplest ranking method is to convert fuzzy numbers into a series of crisp
numbers and then compare them. However, this crisp-ranking method may lose much of the
information that is purposely kept throughout fuzzy operations.
Fuzzy ranking problems are complicated, especially when the ranked fuzzy numbers overlap or
intersect. For a fuzzy discrete-event simulation that models complex construction operations, the
fuzzy simulation time, multiple fuzzy times of end activities and many fuzzy available times of
activities may encounter such overlapping or intersection at a certain time interval.

Fig. 15. Overlapping or intersecting

fuzzy numbers to be ranked

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Conclusion
• Can we develop a method to estimate the CPM by DSM automatically
implementing the showed algorithm with an widely used software (EXCEL)?

• How to use the probabilistic distribution to estimate the project due date?

• Can we adopt Fuzzy numbers and Fuzzy Discrete-event to simulate and

estimate the duration of a project?

• Is required to convert the fuzzy numbers in crisp numbers? Can we use

probabilities or weights to convert fuzzy numbers in crisp numbers? If we do
that, are we really working with fuzzy network?

• In case we adopt Fuzzy Set Network, how to select a fuzzy ranking measure
when interaction or overlapped activity times arise?

• Is Fuzzy Method a risk reducing method in project due date estimation?

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Dilbert Project Sequencing

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How do I simulate a Poisson process [ of
activity ] on a computer?

How do I simulate a Poisson process [of activity l ] on a computer?

In most computer languages, a uniform random generator is available that gives a number between 0
and 1; the result is between x and x+dx with probability |dx|. Let's call X a random variable so
obtained and consider the random variable Y:
Y = - ln ( X ) / l

REJECTED SLIDE
So defined, the random variable Y is exponentially distributed in [0,+¥]... That's because the values x
and y of X and Y verify x = exp(-ly), so that Y is between y and y+dy with probability |dx| = |-l exp(-
ly) dy|.

All you have to do, then, is compute successive random values of Y (using the built-in random
generator for the value of X) and let these be the successive durations between the arrivals of your
simulated Poisson process.

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Uncertainty in NPD projects
Poisson Distribution

For sufficiently large values of λ, (say λ>1000), the normal distribution with mean λ, and variance
λ, is an excellent approximation to the Poisson distribution.

If λ is greater than about 10, then the normal distribution is a good approximation if an appropriate
continuity correction is performed, i.e., P(X ≤ x), where (lower-case) x is a non-negative integer, is
replaced by P(X ≤ x + 0.5).

REJECTED SLIDE
The horizontal axis is the index k. The function is non-zero only
at integer values of k. The connecting lines are only guides for
the eye and do not indicate continuity

Fig. 11. Poisson distribution by λ given values

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Dilbert Project Management

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Dilbert Project Management

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