Trend Forecasting Process

FMD 451
Fashion Forecasting
The creative process that can be
understood, practiced, and applied by
anyone who has the tools.
Need to have a balanced view that seeks
out new styles breaking the cultural edge,
and the reality of changing demographics,
identifies the fad, and the long wave of
change.
Uses: product planning, gain market share,
position products against competitors,
shape collections, style directions, color and
textiles directions, ect.
$teps in developing a forecast
1. D the facts about past trends/forecasts
2. Determine cause of change in the past
3. Look at differences between past
forecasts and consumer behavior
4. dentify factors likely to affect future trends
5. Apply forecasting tools and techniques
accurately.
6. Follow the forecast continually- see if
expectations deviate
7. Revise the forecast when necessary.
Forecasting $pecialties
Long term forecasts- 5 or more years
$hort term forecasts- more than one
year ahead.
Forecasting $cans-
Media $can
1. Fashion scans- follow latest fashion and
lifestyle trends: visit Fashion capitals, scan
media, network with people in the creative
fields (arts, entertainment, interior design,
cosmetics, and architecture.
2. Consumer Scans- Consumer
segmentation (you already did), point of
sale data (retailers and manufactures).
Fashion scan + consumer scan= fashion
analysis- what will happen next!
Do your research!
-
Media $can:
Trend D, analysis and synthesis
$oak up news that
relates to change!
1. National newspaper-
Wall $treet Journal,
New York Times
2. Trade papers- WWD,
California Apparel
News, Advertising
Age
3. Fashion and Lifestyle
magazines( food,
travel, home dcor,
health, gossip,
political, buisness,
science, men's and
womens)
4. nternet- Popular
Culture (world wide):
coolhunter
5. Watch past fashion
shows
6. Take a trip to popular
shopping venues,
fashionable
neighborhoods.
7. Pop Culture: movies,
music, TV, books,
theater, art.
Media $can:
Trend D, analysis and synthesis
Collect bits and pieces from a broad
spectrum of sources.
Link signals, shape them into a vision of
what the future may be.
Pay attention to:
1. New and unusual business
2. nnovative and novel products
3. Unusual travel destinations
4. New, rediscovered, or redesigned leisure
activities.
5. New shopping locations,store designs, services.
6. $tories about people and their adjustment to life's
challenges.
7. Neighborhoods with interesting mix of people,
shopping or ethnic cultures.
Media $can:
Trend D, analysis and synthesis
Collect information( folders), organize it into
a list of themes, issues, ideas, that capture
your attention.
Trends require a label!
$tart general and become specific!
-general examples: new music, financial
issues, cult movies, unusual jobs
- specific examples: "cyberstyle,
"GenNesters, "Asian nfluence
*Once the trend begins to emerge, think about
how the trend relates to a specific product
category or target market.
Media $can:
Trend D, analysis and synthesis
deas for Project 2: Media scan
Trend folders
Cite all resources used
You should address all parts of the media
scan.
$ummarize what your found- Pick 10
major topics/broad categories(20 sources
in each) ndex them in your paper with
sources and images. $ummarize in your
paper.
Describe the Zeitgeist-
" The $pirit of the Times
Fashion is a reflection of the times in which it is
created and worn.
Fashion responds to what is modern, all cultural
components respond to the spirit of the times.
The Zeitgeist covers all product categories.
Media reports culture but is also shaped by it.
Lifecycles are associated with the Zeitgeist.
"An expression of modernity, of the current
state of culture, of the incipient and
unarticulated tastes of the consuming public.
Zeitgeist
Next generation-
Tweens 8-12, looking
to computer games
and Japanese comic
books for inspiration.
Pay attention to: $tyle
interactions between
apparel, cuisine,
sports, architecture,
interiors, automobiles,
toys, avocations,
pastimes, and play.
Changes in the
marketplace:
1. New fashion- seasonal
to continuous
2. Lack of design
leadership
3. Rules for
appropriateness
relaxed
4. Consumers declared
independence
5. Emergence of No
fashion-casual Friday,
ect.
6. Cheap chic
7. Fast fashion
Fashion History Research-
Describe the following:
Designer's signature style, ex. Tom Ford
1990's
$tyle leader- Jacqueline Kennedy- 1960's
A fashion look- Flapper look 1920's
Bohemian element- The hippies, hip hop
Market segment middle class 1950's
Celebrity con- Madonna material girl-
1980's
Model- Twiggy 1960's
Fiber/fabric- Chanel Jersey
Timeline
Research
Describe- what is shaping the trend,
Why has the trend developed
Who is leading the trend.
Look to past designs- Cyclical nature
of fashion!
Analyze the trends that affect your
target market.
Forecast for 2010! Color
Color $tory- combined into prints,
fabrics, all areas usually 200 pieces
per collection.
Work 18-24 months in advance
Color Association of the United $tates
Psychology of color- color preferences.
$eparate for men, women, interiors,
youth.
Words used in color
Hue- the color name
$aturation/ chroma- intensity, strength
of color,
Value- lightness or darkness of a color.
Tint- white added
$hade- black added
Tone- Grey added
Examples: concentrated, deep,
subdue, clear.
Color Marketing- Name
Name a color with imagination, should be
able to be used across product categories,
understand your customer's perception of
the colors. You want to depict a mood!
Examples from the environment:
Natural phenomena sky, sunshine, grass green.
Flora- poppy red, moss green, orchid
Fauna- flamingo pink, robin egg blue
Gemstones- amber, copper
Food and drink- caramel, champagne,
$pices- paprika, curry red
Dyes- indigo
Building materials- adobe, terra cotta, bronze
Locations- Capri blue
Color Cycles
High chroma-- multi colored--subdue colors-
- earth tones-- achromatic colors (black,
white, grey)--purple.
Look at your media scan--- what did you
see- colors celebrities were wearing,
locations, music covers, interiors, museum
exhibits, toys, electronics, food, graphics,
ect. What is selling in stores?!
May be done in house or use a professional
color system like PANTONE.
mages will help you describe color choices.
Predict 4-7 colors per direction.
Think about season- weather, temperature
Textiles
Overall style: botanical, romantic, folkloric
nterpretation- realistic, abstract, geometric.
$cale- small vs large scale motifs
Figure ground relationship- blank space vs.
crowded patterns
Reference to art styles Art Deco
Complexity
Cultural reference- Asian inspired, African
motifs
Historic references- time periods
Color story- sherbet colors, tropical, brights
with Neutral.
Motifs- golf, seashell, animal print.
The Look: Design
The totality of the look:
minimalist, feminine,
sexy redifined.
Theme or Mood: gothic
romanticisim
$wing of fashion
pendulum- flared to
narrow
Proportions of pieces-
placement of waistline
$ilhouette- tubular,
hourglass, wedge
Point of emphasis-
shoulders, bust, waist
Fit- body hugging,
loose
Details- collar, pocket,
sleeve, cuff
Exaggeration in
details.
Trims- beading,
feathers, lace
Findings- button,
zippers, snaps
Fabric type- woven,
knits,
Fabric finishing-
dyeing, abrasion
$pecific fabrics-
transparent, velvet, ect.
$emiotics
The science of
analyzing culture
as a system of
signs.
'isuaI concepts:
1. Referencing the
past
2. Ethnic sources
3. $exuality
4. $ports
5. Appropriateness-
"uptown chic
6. Avant-Garde
7. Modernity
8. Postmodern
Trends
Mega Trend- restructuring of culture
affects all industries ex. Eco friendly
Major Trend- broad public appeal
Minor Trend- limited or small appeal.
Only refers to a specialized group of
consumers.
Describe potential of trend, how long it
will last, interaction with other trends.
Trend Reporting; Label the
trend
Look- retro, Japanese influence
Mood or spirit- youthful, playful
Lifestyle message
Tie in with celebrity
Target Market- urban youth
Brand image
Concept- career casual
$ource of inspiration- Moroccan
Pop culture influence
Forecasting Traps
Time, limitations, assumptions
Lack of imagination, research, insight
Excessive Optimism
Hidden Agendas, wish fulfillment vs. reality
Two sides of the coin- trend and
countertrend
Generation gap
Overlapping trends- sectors
Fad vs. Trend
Don't oversell.
$ee Appendix for resources
(Mudpie.co.uk, WG$N)