Your responsibility

Check & Systemize your thinking habits. Use Precise Questioning Techniques to find out and evaluate all important information. Prepare and Make Decisions systematically. Ensure successful carrying-out of a plan.

Be prepare to commit to:

Attend all classes Participate fully Take risks Take notes Ask questions Enjoy yourself

Note: As a courtesy to others, please set mobile phones to the silent mode.

Solving Problems, Preparing Decisions

This subject presents the individual steps of the following four different processes : 1 - Situation Analysis 2 - Problem Analysis ( Detecting causes ) 3 - Decision Analysis ( Preparing decision ) 4 - Potential Problem Analysis

Practical application of the method enables all managerial staff to:

1 - Deal with the situations. 2 - Become more secure in decision - making.

3 - Direct sphere of activity better, without having to know technical details. 4 - Arrive at solutions faster, save time and money.

Management and organizational effectiveness

An organization: is intended to operate as one unit, with all its parts in efficient coordination. But too often it does not. Parts operate : At different levels of efficiency . Overlap. Work against one anothers best interest. Act in misunderstanding & miscommunication.

OUR MAIN OBJECTIVE

Improvement of the organizational effectiveness

GROUP Vs. TEAM

Interacting in a common cause, people can: Become a unified group. Understand one another as individuals.

Become consciously sensitive to one another.

know how to adapt to individual characteristics. Acquire Common relation and psychological benefits. Such group is not a team!

GROUP Vs. TEAM

A team is built primarily on the technical capabilities of its members working in pursuit of specific goals, only secondarily on attraction among the members as individuals. The members of a team must be able to tolerate one another enough to work closely together. Beyond this, all the members must be committed to a common goal and the set of procedures for achieving that goal.

Team members must be: Able to tolerate one another working together.

Committed to a common goal.

Committed to the same set of procedures for

achieving that goal.

Keeping the overall goal of the team . Knowing what to do. Knowing how to coordinate their efforts.

Building a Management Team

Entrepreneur, aggressive nature, quick insights; Financial expert, Sales & Marketing executives; Director of R&D; Production Manager Their efforts is coordinated by the presidents guidelines for gathering, sharing, and using information to solve problems, make decisions, and safeguard organizations future

Lesson from Canada Geese

The race

A Case History The Rational Management

1- All members are working at one organization. 2- By using common approaches to problems and decisions, they can work together cooperatively as part of one organization. 3- Everyone will use these approaches, beginning with the president.

A Case History The Rational Management

4- Everyone can think, the knowledge and experience are important.
5- What everyone do with these approaches will have an important impact on the organization. 6- Everyone is valuable member of the management team.

He made a PLANNED INTERVENTION into his organization. He introduced the KINDS Of MAJOR CHANGES he believed would do the most good. He introduced A NEW IDEA to his people. He introduced a MEANS BY WHICH thinking could be coordinated. Finally, he MODIFIED THE SYSTEMS AND PROCEDURES of the organization.

A president let his people know

He believed they could think. He wanted them to express their ideas He would listen to them. They must listen to each other.

Types of managers
There are three types of leaderships:
1. The autocratic leadership (high productivity). 2.The developmental leadership (high moral and productivity). 3.The laissez-faire leadership (high moral). Questionnaire 1

1- Circle the item number for items:8, 12, 17, 18, 19, 30, 34, and 35 2 Write the number 1 in front of a circled item number if you responded S or N to that item. 3 Also write a number 1 in front of item numbers not circled if you responded A

4 Circle the number 1s which you have written in front of the following items: 3, 5, 8, 10, 15, 18, 19, 22, 24, 26, 28, 30, 32, 34, and 35. 5 Count the circled number 1s. This is your score for concern for people. Record this score. 6 Count the uncircled number 1s. This is your score for concern for task. Record this score.

Shared Leadership Results

20

High
15

Medium
10

low

Characteristics of Autocratic Manager

- Says little unless something is wrong. -Usually not interested in the ideas of others. -Decides what information people need.

-Changes demands unexpectedly.

-Is sometimes hard to talk to. -Discourages people from taking risks. -Sets objectives for subordinates. -Decides what indicates satisfactory performance.

Example of Autocratic Manager

Boss rules

Characteristics of Developmental Manager

-Consider ideas that conflict with their own. -Allow a reasonable margin for error. -Try to help others learn from their mistakes.

-Have consistency high expectations.

-Encourage people to reach in new directions.

-Help people understand the objective of their jobs.

-Allow people to make their own commitments. -Set objectives with people.

The boss is someone you have to follow, like it or not.

The leader is someone you want to follow.

The boss tends to motivate out of fear.

The leader motivates by suggestion, invitation, persuasion.

CHARACTERISTICS OF LEADERS AND BOSSES

A BOSS Demands respect Is a taskmaster Is critical Rules by fear Commands Makes work a burden Punishes mistakes

A LEADER Earns respect Is a coach Is encouraging Guides by example Inspires Makes work fun Rewards success

How to be good manager

How to improve your memory

ACTIVITIES OF MANAGERS
1 LOWER LEVEL MANAGER: Supervising operations and subordinates, performing detailed reviews of operating results. 2 MIDDLE MANAGERS: Management control activities. 3 TOP MANAGERS: Planning activities, overall reviews, critical problems to the organizations well-being, leadership and ceremonial activities.

Managerial levels w.r.t. Time orientation

1 LOWER LEVEL: concerned with results of past operations & conducting current operations.
2 TOP MANAGERS: concerned with the future of the organization. 3 MIDDLE MANAGERS: in the range between 1 & 2

Managerial levels w.r.t. types of Decision

1- LOWER-LEVEL: repetitive and structured decisions.

2- TOP-MANAGERS: decisions about goals and strategies.

TECHNICAL LEADERSHIP
Technical leadership must:
-Set goals and drive directly to meet them. -Have the courage to stick with it. -Drive to overcome all obstacles. -Gather people for another try when they are ready

to give up.
-Attract followers to the cause.

LEADERS AND THEIR FOLLOWERS

A leader must first attract followers to the cause.
Without followers no leader has the power to perform. A leaders power stem from the ability to attract willing followers.

Leaders must care about their followers.

All leaders are actual power holders, but not all power holders are leaders.

Transformational leadership
Transformational leadership is a leadership style where one or more persons engage with others in such a way that leaders and followers raise one another to higher levels of motivation and morality

TRANSFORMATIONAL LEADERSHIP
Transformational leader must:
-Excite peoples imagination. -Build on their dreams and aspiration. -Convince their followers to dedicate themselves to their goals.

Leaders practicing transformational leadership. Such leadership is useful for everybody involved.

TRANSACTIONAL LEADERSHIP
Leadership based on legitimate power is called

TRANSACTIONAL LEADERSHIP.
It can motivate action, but it also has limitations.

TRANSACTIONAL LEADERSHIP
are motivated by reward and punishment. Social systems work best with a clear chain of command. When people have agreed to do a job, a part of the deal is that they cede all authority to their manager. The prime purpose of a subordinate is to do what their manager tells them to do
People

THE LEADERS VISION

The most vital single characteristic of the leader is vision. Leaders have a clear picture of what they see their group becoming or doing in the future. There's a difference between eyesight and vision. Vision is the ability to get MEANING from eyesight.

THE COMMITMENT ETHICS

The discipline of commitment is hard to live with, but it can be a great comfort. When technical groups must coordinate their efforts to produce a coherent result, schedules are needed and must be based on mutual commitments.

THE ELEMENTS OF COMMITMENT

When a person makes a pact with another and they both expect it to be kept, that is a commitment.
The motivation to meet commitment is largely the result of the way the commitments are made. First, the commitment must be freely accepted. Persons feel bound by the promise only if they feel that they undertook it willingly.

OVER COMMITMENT
One trick of the optimist is to get management so committed to the project that it cant be canceled. we must know that advice is often needed to balance the enthusiasts, for a technical team that has gotten himself in a trouble will rarely get itself out without help.

CHANGING COMMITMENTS
The other side of the coin is the problem of deciding when to change an existing plan.
Every plan is a commitment, but it must be a basis for managing the work. when the plan is unrealistic, coordination is practically impossible.

It is very important for managers to sense when a tight commitment ceases to motivate their people.

THE IMPORTANCE OF PROFESSIONALISM

ELEMENTS OF PROFESSIONALISM
The two key elements of professionalism are: The knowledge of what to do The discipline to do it.

ELEMENTS OF PROFESSIONALISM
Technical knowledge is the true mark of professionals, for it sets them above their less learned fellows.

Technical blindness has many costs, but one of the most important is legal.
With the Continuing rapid advance of technology, product development grows more complex.

THE BENEFITS OF AWARENESS

Technical awareness has important benefits. The cost of technical blindness can be severe. New concept generally appears almost simultaneously. If one new idea can replace or improve a key product, it is essential to learn about it before the competition does. Professionals who keep themselves informed provide the only practical protection against the risk.

MANAGING AWARENESS
Most professionals make little effort to stay technically current.
Reading is the most effective way to stay current, but technical meetings are also helpful. The formal papers are one source of input, but the informal exchange of ideas with other attendees is often even more valuable.

The seven Habits of Highly Effective People

Be Proactive
Take the initiative and make things happen. Aggressively seek new ideas and innovations. Dont let a negative environment affect your behavior and decisions. Work on things that you can do something about. If you make a mistake, acknowledge it and learn from it.

Begin with the end in mind

Know where you are going and make sure all the steps you take are in the right direction. First determine the right things to accomplish and then how to best accomplish them.Write a personal mission statement describing where you want to go, what you want to be, and how to accomplish these things.

Put first things first

List your top priorities each day for the upcoming week and schedule time to work on them. Continually review and prioritize your goals. Say NO to doing unimportant tasks. Focus on the important tasks, the ones that will have impact if carefully thought out and planned.

Think Win/ Win

Win/ Win is the frame of mind that seeks mutual benefits for all people involved in solutions and agreements. Identify the key issues and results that would constitute a fully acceptable solution to all. Make all involved in the decision feel good about the decision and committed to a plan of action.

Seek first to Understand, Then to be Understood

Learn as much as you can about the situation. listen, listen, listen Try to see the problem from the other persons perspective. Be willing to be adaptable in seeking to be understood. Present things logically, not emotionally. Be credible, empathetic, and logical.

Synergize
Make the whole greater than the sum of all parts. Value the differences in the people you work with. Foster open and honest communication. Help everyone bring out the best of everyone else.

Renewal
Renew the four dimensions of your nature: Physical: Exercise, nutrition, stress management Mental : Reading, thinking, visualizing, writing Spiritual: Value clarification and commitment,
study and mediation. Social/Emotional: Service, empathy, selfesteem, synergy.

The seven habits of highly effective people

FirstWorld.ppt

Problem Solving requires two types of mental skills:

1 - Analytical or Logical Thinking such as ordering, comparing, evaluating and selecting. Possessing these skills enables one to construct a logical framework for problem solving. (Convergent Process) 2 - Creative Thinking Divergent Process, using the imagination to create a large range of ideas for solutions. Effective problem solving requires a controlled mixture of analytical and creative thinking.

The Human Brain

The human brain consists of two sides: 1. The left side: deals with logic, language, reasoning, number, linearity, and analysis (academic activities). 2. The right side: deals with rhythms, music, images, imagination, color, parallel processing, day dreaming, face recognition & pattern or map recognition.

The Human Brain

The left side

The right side

Whats Creative Thinking

Creative thinking is a term used when we need to expand our ideas and to approach things from different angle.
It refers to a set of ideas that use the right brain as well as the left brain- to release the full capacity of our mind.

When to use Creative Thinking

When you want to try something new When you come up with new ideas for approaching old problems When you have apparently reached a dead end When things seem to have got bogged down and you are going round in circles.

When to avoid Creative Thinking

When gathering facts When you are at the implementation stage and things are going well When you are already over-burdened with ideas and need to rationalize them When preparing an argument.

Creative thinking skills can be divided into:

1 - Fluency : producing many ideas 2 - Flexibility : producing a broad range of ideas 3 - Originality : producing uncommon ideas 4 - Elaboration : developing ideas 5- Intuition : producing conclusions based on impressions and feelings rather than hard facts. 6 - Incubation : time-out stage of the process, ideas grow and correct solution illuminates 7 - Invention : creation of new meaningful ideas or concept 8 - Innovation : putting new ideas or concept to practical use

Example for Creativity

Questionnaire #2

Questionnaire Analysis
Questions 1-5 These questions were looking at types of behavior that hinder the problem solving process. If you ticked any of the statements then this displays some negative tendency towards problem solving.

Questionnaire Analysis
Questions 6-10 These questions are looking at how methodical you are in your approach to problem solving. Ticks to questions 6,8,and 10 indicate a reasonably methodical approach. Ticks to questions 7 and 9 indicate a less methodical approach.

Questionnaire Analysis
Questions 11-15 This set of questions looks at how creative or analytical you are in your approach. Ticks to questions 11,13,and 14 indicate a creative inclination, and 12 and 15 an analytical bent.

Questionnaire Analysis
Questions 16-20 These questions look at general attitudes towards problem solving. Ticks to questions 16, 18, and 20 point towards a healthy enquiring problem solving approach to work.

Formula 4 success

Improving your Creative Abilities

Keep track of your ideas all times. Pose new questions to yourself every day. Keep abreast of your field. Learn about things outside your specialty. Avoid rigid, set patterns of doing things. Be open and receptive to ideas (yours and others). Be alert in your observations.

Improving your Creative Abilities

Adopt a risk-taking attitude. Keep your sense of humor. Engage in creative hobbies. Have courage and self-confidence. Learn to know and understand yourself.

The solution

An exercise

The solution IQ Test

Sins of Negative Thinking

Techniques for generating ideas

Daydreaming

Group problem solving Brainstorming Cause and effect analysis

Daydreaming
One of the basic tools of a good problem solver. Can be characterized in a number of ways: 1. Seen as a time-out exercise. 2. Can be fitted into spare moments. 3. Risk free as it involves only thoughts and not actions. 4. Helps to develop plans 5. Inventors do it all the time 6. Often involves people looking for best possible solution.

Day Dreaming

Group problem solving

If used at the right time, it can have many advantages: -Increased output. -Cross-fertilization of ideas. - Prospect of shared responsibility. -Improved quality of solutions due to diversity and richness of ideas, skills and knowledge.

Brainstorming
This technique concentrates on generation of ideas by group 5-20. A facilitator should work with group, stimulating participants.

Brainstorming
There are four basic rules of brainstorming: 1 - No evaluation is allowed during the session 2 - Freewheel where any ideas are allowed however outrageous 3 -Cross-fertilize where participants reword and rework other Peoples ideas 4 - Quantity is important, a large number of ideas should be encouraged.

Leaders Role
Start and stop the process. Ensure the problem is well defined at the start and remembered throughout the session. Help the session to run smoothly. Make sure that everything is being written. Put forward ideas when others dry up.

Assessing the Brainstorming Output

Highlight attractive ideas. Delete obvious no-hopers. Group similar ideas under headings. Match ideas against the problem definition. Identify ideas to explore further. Identify ideas with additional information. Use ranking and rating techniques.

Cause & Effect Analysis

Its

a technique for identifying the possible causes affecting a problem or project, by recording those causes and relating them to their effect.

Cause & Effect Analysis

Why use it? To help generate ideas. To record ideas generated. To reveal hidden relationships. To investigate root causes. To highlight important relationships.

Cause & Effect Analysis

ways of identifying the causes
1 Brainstorming

2 - The 4M approach Machines, Methods, Materials, Manpower 3 - The PEMPEM approach Plant, Equipment, Materials, People, Environment, Methods.

Identify all possible causes

Methods Man Power
- Lack of Supervision - No pre-entry checks - Batches too big - Not enough rest-breaks - No automated checking - Untrained staff - New Staff - Temp Staff - Pressure of work - Lack of regular breaks - No time

- Old Technology Inadequate software - Keyboard Bounce - Illegible Handwriting - Sticky Keyboard - Poor Ergonomics Seating Lightening Heat - Incorrect data - Untrained staff Illegible copy

Computer Data-entry Errors

Machines

Materials

Six Thinking Hats

The four basic pattern of thinking

These patterns are reflected in the four questions managers ask usually:

Whats going on?

Why did this happen? Which course of action should we take? What lies ahead?

Whats going on?

It asks for a sorting out, a breaking down, a key to the map of events, a means of achieving and maintaining control. It reflects the pattern of thinking that enables imposing order where all had been disorder, uncertainty or confusion.

Why did this happen?

Indicates the need for Cause-and-effect thinking, the second basic pattern. It is the pattern that enables us to move from the observing the effect of a problem to understand its cause.

Which course of action should we take?

Implies that some choice must be made.
This basic pattern of thinking enables us to decide on the course of action most likely to accomplish a particular goal.

What lies ahead?

We use this fourth pattern of thinking when we attempt to assess the problem that might happen, the decision that might be necessary tomorrow, next month, next year, or in five years.

SITUATION ANALYSIS

Situation Analysis
Situation Analysis assists you:
-To systematically take stock of the situations and tasks you are concerned with.

-To establish priorities and to assign them to the corresponding Thought Process. Situation Analysis enable you by asking Pertinent questions , to break down Complex and Multilayer Situations into their component Sub-situations.

What Are Situations?

Situations, ( in particular, critical situations) are Matters that require Action on your part. Situation is something need to be done and you are in a position to do something about it. They develop into tasks which you have to perform.

How To Probe a Critical Situation

By asking : Where are we not meeting standards? What problems from . Remains unsolved? What recommendations are we currently working on or will be coming up in the near future? What decisions need to be made now? What decisions are being made now and will have to be implemented when a choice is made? What major projects, systems, or plans are about to be implemented.

Situation Appraisal
Situation Appraisal consists of evaluative techniques that lead to proper selection and use of one of the analytical techniques (PA, DA, or PPA) It enable managers to make best possible use of the analytical techniques by clarifying to them:

Situation Appraisal
Where to begin How to recognize situations that require action. How to break apart overlapping and confusing issues. How to set priorities. How to manage a number of simultaneous activities efficiently

Situation Analysis Stages

A Recognize concerns B - Defining and break down situations. C - Establishing Priorities

D - Assigning Situations to Thought Processes.

1- Recognizing Concerns
Many managers have found that it helps to break the process of searching of situations into four activities:

List current deviations, threats, and opportunities Review progress against your goals Look ahead for surprise (within your organization and the external environment) Search for improvement.

2 Separating Concerns into Manageable Components

In order to break down any situation into its components, We ask more questions: Do we think one action will resolve this concern? Are we talking about one thing or several things? What evidence do we have that says this is a concern? What do we mean by? Whats actually happening in this situation? What do we see,hear, feel that tells us we must take action? Whats really troubling us about this situation?

3 - Setting priorities
Systematic setting of priorities remains frustrating and difficult for many managers. Practical and systematic process for determining importance is to consider each concern in terms of three dimensions: How serious is the current impact? How much time urgency it have? Whats the best estimate of its probable growth?

Situation can have

- a high (H) , medium (M) or low (L) cost factor - a high (H) , medium (M) or low (L) time factor - a steady, rising, or descending trend.

A- Situation: must be dealt with at once or within 23 Hours B - Situation: should be dealt with this veining or tomorrow morning C - Situation: can be left for a few days or weeks

4 - Assigning Situations to Thought Processes.

Of these remaining high-priority concerns, some are easy to identify for partial or full PA, DA, or PPA. But its not always so cut and dried. To ensure that we choose the correct technique or combination of techniques, we have to answer the following questions:

Situation Analysis

Situation Analysis Chart

Discrepancy

No

Decision required

No
Plan existing

No

Yes
Cause Unknown

Yes No
Alternatives

No

Yes
Can something goes wrong

Yes
Want to know cause

No

No

Yes

Yes

Yes
Detect Cause PA

Make Decision DA

Safeguard Program Find New Facts PPA

Situation Analysis quiz

Method of Situation Analysis

1 - Prepare a list of situations (tasks) Must I intervene? Must I act ? Yes 2 - Define and break down situations Is the situation unambiguous and clear? Substitutions What does it mean, exactly? Which - How exactly?

Method of Situation Analysis

3 - Establish Priorities Importance Urgency Tendency 4 - Assign the appropriate thought process Is there a discrepancy? Yes Is the Cause unknown? Yes PA Do I want to know the cause? Yes Is a Decision required? Yes DA Have I got a choice? Yes Is there a program? Yes Can something go wrong? Yes PP

Case 1

PROBLANALYSISEM

Problem Analysis (Detecting Causes)

With the aid of this methodology you will be in a position to detect causes of discrepancies by using a precise technique of questioning to collect critical information.

What is a problem?
A problem is a situation where we experience difficulty or uncertainty in achieving something we want to achieve. Problems arise when an obstacle prevents one reaching an objective. Objective: something we have decided we need to achieve. Obstacle : anything that prevents us achieving an objective. Objective + Obstacle = PROBLEM

Problems can be divided into two Groups:

1 - Closed or Maintenance Problems Where the current situation is not what was expected. 2 - Open-Ended or Achievement Problems Where we want to change our current situation in some way but find there is an obstacle preventing us from doing so.

Outline of Problem Analysis

Starting thinking about the problem

The Techniques of Problem Analysis

The techniques are divided into these major categories: 1. Definition of the problem. 2. Description of the problem in four dimensions: Identity, Location, Timing, and Magnitude. 3. Extraction of key information in the four dimensions to generate possible causes. 4. Testing for most probable cause. 5. Verification of the true cause.

I Definition of the Problem, or The Deviation Statement

We must first define a problem exactly before we can describe, analyze, and explain it. We define it with the deviation statement, or name of the problem. It is important to state this name precisely.

The Criteria To Define a Problem

The following are typical examples of problems. It meets our definition of a problem because in each one an expected level of performance is not being achieved, and the cause of the unacceptable performance is unknown.
From the day we introduced the computer, weve had nothing but trouble in getting our inventories to balance. I just dont understand it.

Cont..
Mr. X was referred to us as an outstanding engineer, but he certainly hasnt fulfilled expectations in this department.
Our number eleven paper machine never produces more than 80% of its design capacity no matter what we try.

Cont.
Some days we meet our schedules without any trouble. Other day we cant meet them at all. There just doesnt seem to be any good reason for the discrepancy.
The system worked well for months. Then, in the middle of the morning three weeks ago, it went dead. Its still dead and we dont have the slightest idea of what happened.

The real problem

Ill-Defined problems

II- Description of the problem in four dimensions

Once we have a precise deviation statement, the next step in problem analysis is to specify it in its four dimensions: IDENTITY LOCATION TIMING MAGNITUDE what it is were trying to explain? where we observe it? when it occurs? how serious, how expensive it is?

A basis of comparison (IS and IS NOT)

Usually we know that our problem IS , what would we gain by identifying something that could be happened but IS NOT? Such data would give us what we need to conduct an analysis: a basis of comparison. Once we have identified COULD BE but IS NOT data, we will also be able to identify the peculiar factors that isolate our problem. These peculiar factors will lead us closer to the problems cause.

A basis of comparison (IS and IS NOT)

A discrepancy is described by defining What, Where, When and How much. (IS - sphere = Problem - sphere)

In order to orientates ones search for possible causes it is necessary to mark off this problem - sphere as closely as possible by setting up an IS NOT - sphere.
It is essential, in order to clearly limit the problem area, to search only for changes, which apply to the IS- sphere but not to the IS-NOT - sphere.

The differences between IS and IS NOT are called DISTINCTIONS

How are distinctions established?

Ask: - Which characteristics apply to IS but not to IS NOT ? - In what way does IS differ from IS NOT? - By what distinctions does IS differ from IS NOT? If discrepancies appear in well run - in processes, its the CHANGES in the distinctions that are the cause.

Changes
Managers who may never have heard of problem analysis know that a decline in a formerly acceptable performance suggests that something has changed; common sense tells them to look for the change. Such a search can be extremely frustrating when the manager is faced with an array of changes, changes that are known and planned, changes that are unforeseen, which Continually creep into every operation.

How do you determine CHANGES?

Ask: - What changed or was changed in the distinction ? - What changed or was changed relative to the distinction - What changed or was changed within the scope of the distinction ? You can substitute one of the following terms for Changed in the above questions: - Made new - Made more efficient - Improved - Remodeled - Refined - Replaced - Converted - Overhauled

Note:

Cont..
It is important to mark the changes with the date of occurrence.
The possible causes are now derived from these changes and distinctions. Now you draw up a statement, which could explain how, and in what circumstances, the change in a particular distinction could be the cause of the discrepancy.

III-Extraction of Key Information

In order to generate the possible causes of the problem it is important to extract the key information in the problems four dimensions, identity, location, timing, and magnitude. As the question What is distinctive? is applied to the four dimensions of a problem, our analysis begins to reveal important clues to the cause of the problem, just clues, not answers or explanations.

Problem Analysis
Specifying Questions
Performance Closest logical deviation comparison What is distinctive about Does the distinctive suggest a change?

Identity

Whats the unit with IS No1 Filter the malfunction?

Whats the malfunction? IS leaking oil

Could be but IS NOT No 25 Is Not no logical comparison IS NOT at other filter

locations

No 1 has a square cornered gasket; the other

rounded

Squared cornered gasket is a new type used 3 days

ago

Location

Where is the mal function observed?

IS at the north east corner of

filter house

The location is nearest to feed water pump, exposing filter 1 to higher level of vibration than other filters

Nothing. Location and level of vibration have been the same for years

Problem Analysis
Specifying Questions
Performance Closest What is distinctive Does the deviation logical about distinctive comparison suggest a change? IS first observed 3 days ago IS NOT before 3 days ago
There was a monthly New type check just prior to 3 gasket, days ago. installed for first time 3 days ago

When the malfunction was first observed? When has it been observed since?
When in the operating cycle of the unit is the malfunction first observed

Timing

IS Continually, all shifts

IS NOT Oil flows through when unit unit under is not in use pressure on use only
IS NOT at a time later on in shift

Nothing

IS first observed as soon as oil goes into filter

First time oil comes into filter under pressure

Nothing

Problem Analysis
Specifying Questions
Performance Closest deviation logical comparison What is distinctive about Does the distinctive suggest a change?

Magnitude

Whats the extent of the malfunction

IS 5-10 gallons of oil leaked/shift

IS NOT less than 5 gallons

How many units are affected?

IS No 1 filter only

Generation of possible causes

Somewhere in the lists of distinctions and changes that emerge during problem analysis lies the explanation of CAUSE .

The way to generate possible causes is to ask each item in the categories of the distinction and change, How could this distinction (change) have produced the deviation as described in the deviation statement?

How are these possible causes (hypotheses) established?

Ask: - How can the change have brought about
the discrepancy ? - How can the change in a distinction have caused the discrepancy ? - How can one change, together with another change, have caused the discrepancy?

IV-Testing for most probable cause

In the testing step of the problem analysis:
Let the facts in the specification perform the function of judging the relative likelihood of possible causes.

Ask of each possible cause, If this is the true cause of the problem, then how does it explain each dimension in the specification?
The true cause must explain each and every aspect of the deviation, the IS and IS NOT facts.

How do you test?

You ask the following question: - Does this hypothesis explain WHY the discrepancy occurred in IS but not in IS NOT ? You go through all IS and IS NOT lines with this question.

Cont
The hypothesis dies as soon as it leaves a line unexplained. The most likely cause may have you be proved. Proof, turning the most likely cause into the real one, but, it is not part of this THOUGHT PROCESS.

V- Verification of the true cause

Verification is easy to perform once you have identified a likely cause. It consists of asking an additional question or two or setting up an experiment. It depends on bringing in additional information and taking an additional action.

Cont.
Verification is an independent step taken to prove a cause-and-effect relationship. You have to investigate the actual situation. Sometimes no verification is possible and we must rely on the testing step alone.

Before starting to prove, ask yourself the following questions:

- Do I need additional information in order to prove that this is the cause? if yes what information is required?
- Did I make sure that the cost of obtaining additional information and evidence does not exceed the importance and cost of the discrepancy? - Am I in a position to produce the evidence, or do I have to call in a specialist?

P1

Sales volume has fallen off

C1 P2 Men grumbling instead of selling

C2 P3 Men resent inside Sales Assistant

C3 P4 Inside Sales Assistant throwing his weight around

C4 Assistant not recognized by men Supervisory responsibility of Inside Sales

Puzzling Poem

Case #2

PA Case

Case 2

SUMMARY
Deviation from achieved or planned standards, specifications and what is supposed to happen, is inevitable in a work - process subjected to Continuous changes. In the event of trouble the search for a culprit is not important; what is important is the determination of the cause.

SUMMARY
If we assume that a change or a distinction causes a discrepancy, then these factors must be determined by appropriate questions. The basis to start from is the description of:
What When Where How much

IS/IS NOT

SUMMARY
Using the above description of a discrepancy we contrast the sphere involved (IS) with the sphere not involved , IS NOT , and working from the distinctions and changes we have drawn up ,we establish Hypotheses about possible causes. These hypotheses are then tested for probability against the description of the facts. This test only establishes a degree of probability to make a possible cause into an actual cause we need proof.

DECISION ANALYSIS

Decision Analysis (making the right decision)

Decision - Making is the most difficult and most essential task in a manager performs.

The decision may be connect with problem or not connect with problem.

Decision Making

What is a Decision?
Decision is a choice between various ways of getting a practical thing done or an end accomplished. Decision will be compromise between what the manager wants, in an ideal sense, and what can actually be done.

Types of Decisions
1 - The complex decision that requires examination of a large amount of information, and involve the judgment of many people. 2 - The Yes/No decision that involves only two alternatives: to take or reject a course of action

Types of Decisions (cont..)

3 The decision as to whether a single proposed course of action is sound enough to be implemented. 4 The decision in which an original alternative must be developed by the decision maker. 5 The routine decision: hiring, purchasing, development of personnel policies, and other every day decisions.

Kinds of actions
1 - Interim action
2 - Adaptive action 3 - Corrective action 4 - Preventive action 5 - Contingency action

Decision Making
Decision making is the study of identifying and choosing alternatives based on the values and preferences of the decision maker. Making a decision implies that there are alternative choices to be considered, and in such a case we want to choose the one that (1) has the highest probability of success or effectiveness. (2) best fits with our goals, desires, lifestyle, values, and so on.

Concepts and Definitions

Information

This is knowledge about the decision, the effects of its alternatives, the probability of each alternative, and so forth. A major point to make here is that while substantial information is desirable, the statement that "the more information, the better" is not true. Too much information can actually reduce the quality of a decision.

Alternatives

These are the possibilities one has to choose from. Alternatives can be identified (that is, searched for and located) or even developed (created where they did not previously exist). Merely searching for preexisting alternatives will result in less effective decision making

Criteria

These are the characteristics or requirements that each alternative must possess to a greater or lesser extent. Usually the alternatives are rated on how well they possess each criterion.

Goals

What is it you want to accomplish? Strangely enough, many decision makers collect a bunch of alternatives (say cars to buy or people to marry) and then ask, "Which should I choose?" without thinking first of what their goals are, what overall objective they want to achieve.

Value

Value refers to how desirable a particular outcome is, the value of the alternative, whether in dollars, satisfaction, or other benefit.

Preferences

These reflect the philosophy and moral hierarchy of the decision maker. We could say that they are the decision maker's "values,. If we could use that word here, we would say that personal values dictate preferences. Some people prefer excitement to calmness, certainty to risk, quality to quantity, and so on.

Decision Quality

This is a rating of whether a decision is good or bad. A good decision is a logical one based on the available information and reflecting the preferences of the decision maker.

Acceptance
Those who must implement the decision or who will be affected by it must accept it both intellectually and emotionally. Acceptance is a critical factor because it occasionally conflicts with one of the quality criteria. In such cases, the best thing to do may be to choose a lesser quality solution that has greater acceptance

Risking

Because making decisions involves a degree of risk, it would be helpful to examine risk and risk analysis in this chapter in order to gain an understanding of what is involved. Risk and uncertainty create anxiety, yet they are necessary components of an active life

General Comments on Risk Taking

1. Only the risk takers are truly free. All decisions of consequence involve risk. Without taking risks, you cannot grow or improve or even live.

General Comments on Risk Taking

2. There is really no such thing as permanent security in anything on earth. Not taking risks is really not more secure than taking them, for your present state can always be changed without action on your part.

General Comments on Risk Taking

3. You are supposed to be afraid when you risk. Admit your fears--of loss, of rejection, of failure.

General Comments on Risk Taking

4. Risking normally involves a degree of separation anxiety--the anxiety you feel whenever you are removed from something that makes you feel secure. The way to overcome separation anxiety is to build a bridge between the familiar and secure and the new.

Decision Analysis
With the aid of this methodology you will be in a position to prepare and make decisions by following a precise procedure when collecting information essential for decision - making.

Decision Analysis
The process of DA makes the decision transparent. It shows why this decision was made and not another. Another advantage is that this process may be made a team - process ,the decision being transferred from a single person to the team. This DA can rarely meet all demands of a single individual but will always achieve the best possible compromise for the parties involved in the decision.

The Elements of Good Choice

1.

2.

3.

The quality of our definition of specific factors that must be satisfied. The quality of our evaluation of the available alternatives. The quality of our understanding of what those alternatives can produce- for better or worse.

The process of making the right decision is divided into four steps:

1- OBJECTIVES / Selection criteria a - Stipulate b - Classifying c - Weighing

2 - Alternatives / Evaluation of alternatives 3 - Risk Assessment 4 - Final Decision

Objectives
I- Stipulate You have to stipulate generally acceptable objectives. These objectives are derived from the results aimed at, demanded or desired. They are limited by the means available. Objectives / selection - criteria may be determined step by step. Basic objectives are laid down first, then general objectives and finally exact objectives.

Example: buying a motor car Basic objective - Lowest cost General objective Lowest purchase price Lowest Maintenance cost Exact objective Low purchase price Little maintenance Low petrol consumption favorable tax-class favorable insurance class

To determine the objectives ask the following questions: - What do I want to achieve, where, when, to what extent? - What do I want to avoid, where, when, to what extent? - What means are available, where, when, to what extent?

Cont.
These questions enable you to clearly define an objective. Try to achieve a balance of objectives, e.g. not five criteria about money and one objective concerning manpower only. To avoid this you can draw up a list of basic objectives, on the basis of which the selection criteria can be established.

Cont.
These basic objectives can be then assigned points or percentages, which must not be exceeded, to avoid bias in judging selection criteria. From what categories of significance can we determine objectives with appropriate weighting?

Objectives Purpose of Decision

Selection Criteria
Person Responsible

Goals:
Basic General Exact % % % % % % %

II-Classifying
The objectives developed from the above questions now have to be investigated to see whether they represent MUST or WANT objectives

MUST Objectives
MUST - objectives are demands that must be met without fail (mandatory) if an alternative is to stay in the selection. They must be measurable or have distinct limits. They are maximum or minimum requirements; maximum requirements in regard to means, and minimum requirements as to results.

MUST Objectives
MUST- objectives must be realistic. All non-measurable or non-mandatory objectives are WANT- objectives. WANT- objectives can be derived from MUST objectives. In practice, decisions are frequently made on WANT- objectives only.

III- Weighing
The WANT objectives are weighted (from 10 down to1) to set their relative values. If the number of WANT objectives is so large that the general picture disappears (40 or more selection criteria), it is a good idea to draw up basic objectives under which the WANT objectives can be listed.

Decision analysis is applied to each basic objective (including risk assessment)

Want Objectives
Objective Grade (1)

English
IQ GK Computer skills Personality Talent

(2)
(3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

Want Objectives
Objective Grade (1)

English
IQ GK Computer skills Personality Talent

1
3 1 5 6 1

(2)
3 2 5 6 2 (3) 3 5 3 3 (4) 5 6 7 (5) 6 5 (6) 6 (7)

Weighing Want Objectives

Objective 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Frequency

Weight

10

Want Objective

A
7 6

B
10 8

C
5 10

D
6 9

Total

Final

Grade English

28 33

7 9

IQ
GK Comp. Skills

8
4 9

9
5 7

8
7 6

10
4 8

35
20 30

10
4 8

Personality
Talent

10
5

6
4

4
9

7
5

27
23

6
5

Alternatives
Alternatives are possible avenues to reach an objective. Alternatives emerge from ones own experience or from the experience of others. Where can you find inspiration for alternatives?

Exhibitions Catalogues Quotations Inventions Advertisements Conversations

Trade-fairs Developments Public tenders

Evaluation of alternatives
To compare and evaluate alternatives we need information that describes the alternatives in the light of WANT objectives. After the alternatives have been compiled, we check which of these alternatives meet the MUST objectives. This way we eliminate the unrealistic and impractical alternatives.

Evaluation of alternatives
To this end we check all information in the light of MUST objectives. The remaining alternatives are now examined to see how relatively suitable they are. We determine which alternative fits the objective best.

Evaluation of alternatives
We determine the degree of the compliance. Information compiled for the different alternatives in the light of WANT objectives is entered on the form. Thereafter we determine for each objective which of the alternatives fits it best.

Evaluation of alternatives
Having evaluated all information, we multiply the score figures by the weight figures assigned to the objectives. The weighted scores are now added up. The alternative with highest score-weight is the provisional (tentative) decision.

Must
Grade Years Want IQ Eng Com. Sk Grade Per Talent GK G 3 W 10 9 8 7 6 5 4

Alt A VG 1
sc w.sc 120 650 H VG Exc M 90 8 80 10 90 10 80 8 56 10 60 8 40 10 40 446

Alt. B Exc 2
sc 100 7 600 9 M 8 Exc 10 VG 8 H 10 70 7
w.sc

Alt. C G 3
sc w.sc 150 500 M G Exc L 80 10 8 8 6 10 6 8 100 80 64 42 60 30 32 398

70 81 64 70 48 50 28 411

Risk assessment
Every alternative has its risks, which impair efficiency.
We must assess the effects of possible disadvantages, which we may have to put up with.

Sources for risk assessment

Limits of MUST objectives Alternative evaluation (highly weighted WANTS poorly satisfied) Forgotten objectives Experience by others with the same or a similar alternative Professional fault-finders Categories of comparison for the determination of objectives.

Adversary effects of alternatives

How possible of occurrence of AE 1-10

How big are implications when AE occur 1-10

Probability * importance = risk factor

Total risks

Adversary effects of alternatives

How possible of occurrence of AE 1-10

How big are implications when AE occur 1-10

Probability * importance = risk factor

A B

5 8

7 9

35 72

Total risks

107

Adversary effects of alternatives

How possible of occurrence of AE 1-10

How big are implications when AE occur 1-10

Probability * importance = risk factor

C D

8 5

7 3

56 15

Total risks

71

Adversary effects of alternatives

How possible of occurrence of AE 1-10

How big are implications when AE occur 1-10

Probability * importance = risk factor

24

Total risks

28

The Result
Alt. A
Provisional Decision

Alt. B

Alt. C

446

411

398

Risk Factor

107

71

28

Case # 3

SUMMARY
DA ensures systematic procurement and processing of information .It makes a decision transparent by showing what information led to the decision . It also makes the decision verifiable and storable

SUMMARY
The individual steps of the decision process are:

-Establish objectives / selection criteria ( basic, general, and exact Objectives) - Classify into MUST and WANT - objectives - Weighting of WANT - objectives - Specify and develop alternatives.

SUMMARY
- Testing of alternatives with regard to MUST objectives. - Evaluation of alternatives for WANT objectives. - Determine risk - factors and calculates probability and implications of these risk factors. - Make final decision.

DA

Risk Assessment

Final Decision
Alt 1 Provisional Decision Provisional Decision Risk factor Risk Factor 165 70 Alt 2 366 32 Alt 3 340 80 Alt 4 264 116 Alt 5 292 148

POTENTIAL PROBLEM ANALYSIS

Example Example-2

Potential Problem Analysis ( Safeguard - program)

Problem must not be allowed to arise in the first place. For this reason, this methodology is concerned with the events and the problems of the future. One should however, not confuse safeguard programs with Planning Although both are concerned with the future.

The difference is that the safeguard- program guarantees the success of a plan.

Potential problem analysis

Potential problem analysis is a Procedure that enables us to walk into the future, see what it may hold, and then return to the present to take action now. PPA is the pattern of thinking that enables us to change and improve the future. It is a protective process through which we ensure that the future will be as good as we can make it.

Potential problem analysis

PPA may sound very similar to the adverse consequence thinking that is done at the end of DA, but the two are quite different both in purpose and process.

Cont.
The potential adverse consequences of alternatives compared in a DA are identified to help us reach a balanced choice: an alternative that fulfills most of our important objectives at minimal risk. In PPA, by contrast, we are constructing a plan of action; we are going to do something, perhaps many things to eliminate or reduce potential problems.

Safeguard - program
Safeguard - program comprises 4 phases: 1 - Specifying the parts of a plan and determining the critical portions of it. 2 - Possible deviations (potential problem) 3 - Conceivable (possible) causes 4 - Preventive measures

Specifying the parts of a plan, determining the critical portions of it

A plan details all activities which are necessary for the carrying out of a decision. Deadlines are fixed for the activities and activities are assigned to the persons responsible.

The more a plan is broken down into components , the more details it contains, the easier it is to find the weak points and critical areas.

Steps for breaking down a plan

Three program steps for breaking down a plan: 1 - Note plan steps Make a list of the approximate steps in the plan. Start and completion of these steps are specified and persons are given responsibility. 2 - Sub - program for plan steps If one plan is too complex or if responsibility resets with several persons, sub - plan must be performed . Specify start , completion and responsibility for each critical sub - plan.

Steps for breaking down a plan

3 - Action The time available , and the complexity or importance of the task on hand are the guidelines for deciding to adopt or to omit a particular plan-step.
The point of finding out the critical steps in a plan is to locate any discrepancies in the most important elements of a plan, and thus to avoid getting lost in trifles.

How can we determine these critical plan - steps?

You ask , e.g.: - Is something new, unfamiliar or difficult being tried? - Are there tight deadlines? - Must a sequence of events be accurately maintained? - Is work being done which is difficult to assign clearly? - Will there be disadvantages if something goes wrong? - Is responsibility shared by more than one person? - etc.

Cont.
If the answer to one of these questions is yes, then its a critical area (CA)

The critical plan- areas determined in this manner are then investigated for possible deviations.

Possible Deviation (Potential Problem)

Since we cannot expect that right thing will always happen, we should anticipate what could go wrong? What could go wrong? What, specifically, is each problem? How risky is each problem?

Possible Deviation
Write down every expected deviation: How serious will it be if it happen? How probable is it that it might happen? To be able to do something against this deviation, we must first find the conceivable (possible) causes, which could bring about these possible deviation.

Conceivable Causes
Imagination, experience, logical thinking etc., will help you to recognize the conceivable causes of a specific possible deviation.

Its useful to remember the 6 Ms:

MAN MACHINE Material Method Minute Money - makes a mistake in the wrong job - special model, one-off job - not available or wrong - not ordered , unsystematic - delivery time , too late or too early - too expensive, too cheap

All conceivable causes cannot occur all at once; to ensure sensible and economical application of safeguards, we have to examine how probable it will be for the cause to happen.

Preventive Measures
Prevention is better than cure
Preventive action prevent undesirable events from happening or, at least, reduces their probability of materializing. Try to find feasible and practical preventive action for each conceivable cause. This not being possible in every case, you have to accept certain risks.

Preventive Measures
CONTINGENCY - ACTION must be made available in case preventive action cannot be taken or is insufficient and a risk threatening the success of the project still exists. Whilst preventive action is aimed at preventing conceivable causes from arising, CONTINGENCY ACTION is employed when something went wrong in spite of all the prevention.

Reporting back
It is a fact of the matter that Contingency - action does not materialize on its own. It needs a trigger. Specify a trigger, (a person or an arrangement) for each Contingency action. Tell the trigger, when, in what circumstances it must report back, and with what message. (You have to specify the reporting channels)

GOODKARMA

METHOD Of POTENTIAL PROBLEM ANALYSIS

First Specify exactly: Purpose of program: what must be done ? where must it be done ? when must it be done ? how much shall individually be spent ? Specify activities ( plan - step, sub - plan - step, action )

Cont.
1 - Recognize and determine critical areas in the plan What are the critical areas or single activities of a plan which are particularly threatened by potential problems ? 2 - Investigate critical areas for potential problems What could go wrong? Where, mostly go wrong ? Evaluate potential problem Probability H-M-L Importance H-M-L

Cont.
3 - Conceivable causes 4 - Specify preventive action against causes Take Contingency - action against effects 5 - Establish alarm and reporting system How long should the preventive action remain in force?

Summary
A safeguard program will enable you to carry out projects without big surprises . Unpleasant surprises fail to appear , since you have investigated in detail those points of your program which could cause difficulties . Such difficulties must not be permitted to arise.

Summary
The CRITICAL PLAN _ STEPS are determined first . Thereafter all critical parts of the plan are investigated for

POSSIBLE DEVIATIONS, for which Possible (conceivable) causes are then established. To safeguard the carrying out of the plan PREVENTIVE ACTIO, is taken and
CONTINGENCY-ACTION, made available.

Summary
Since Contingency - action must be triggered off, TRIGGERS must be provided. TEST- PERIODS are introduced to stop preventive action after a specified period.