THE SYRIAN

CONFLICT:
N O R M A L I Z AT I O N
PROCESS AND
EMERGING
T H R E AT S

By Stanislava Salnikova
 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

The Syrian case is far more multifaceted than

it may seem at first, considering the amount
and diversity of the actors. Thus, the actors
can be divided into 3 categories:

-Global actors: Russia, USA

-Regional actors: Turkey, Iran, Gulf states

-Non-state actors: ISIS, Hezbollah, rebel

groups.
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

As of today:
- Syrian government controls
approximately 70% of the country

- ISIS met its end in 2019

- The “Rojava” autonomous region

proceeds to operate independently

- The active presence of foreign

military personnel continues
RECENT IMPROVEMENTS

Despite the ongoing disputes, in 2021

Ankara has expressed a desire to ease
sanctions and normalize relations with
Syria. Moreover, in 2022 and 2023, the
defense ministers and intelligence
chiefs of both states held official talks
for the fist time since the civil war
breakout.
RECENT IMPROVEMENTS

Saudi Arabia: initiated talks regarding

Syrian return to Arab League and
discussion about the potential
restoration of diplomatic ties.

UAE: Welcomed Assad with his first

visit to UAE in 2022 with appointing
its first ambassador to Syria in 2024.

Qatar and Kuwait: Expressed

dissatisfaction with Assad’s return to
Arab League, but didn’t object to it.
RECENT IMPROVEMENTS

In 2022, Bashar Assad came to Tehran

for talks with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
and in May 2023 Ebrahim Raisi paid
his first official visit to Damascus
since the civil war breakout.
P O T E N T I A L T H R E AT S O U R C E S : I S I S

As of January 2024,at least 65 IS

attacks in have been recorded, split
between areas controlled by the SDF
and areas overseen by the Syrian
government.
Last year there were 215 documented
attacks in regime-held parts of Syria.
The Rojava Information Center
separately documented 192 Islamic
State attacks in SDF-controlled
northeastern Syria in the same period.
 P O T E N T I A L T H R E AT S O U R C E S : R O J AVA

The Syrian government views Rojava

with suspicion, as it challenges the
centralized authority of Damascus and
seeks to maintain its own governance
structures. A 50.000 km2-wide self-
proclaimed autonomy represents a
complex political and social entity
within Syria that has emerged in the
context of the Syrian civil war.
P O T E N T I A L T H R E AT S O U R C E S : R E G I O N A L T E N S I O N S

In April 2024, Israel launched an

airstrike on Iran consulate in
Syria’s capital Damascus which
resulted in 11 casualties. With Syria
and Iran condemning the attack,
Iran fired missiles and drones from
Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, as well as
Iran itself as a payback.
T H A N K Y O U F O R Y O U R AT T E N T I O N