Section I-3

CFSE Exam Preparation: Section I-3
Section 3:
Rules of Probability
• Probability is assigned by…
• Types of events
• Probability multiplication
• Probability addition
• Fault Tree Analysis Basics
1
Probability Assignment
• Probability assigned by two methods:

– Physical property determination
• Geometry, physical shape
– Experimental outcome determination

• Number of occurrences / Number of Trials
• Probability is a number: ( 0 -> 1 )
2
Event Types
• INDEPENDENT - Events that do not affect each other

– Coin Tosses
– Dice Throws
• COMPLEMENTARY - When one outcome does not
occur, the other will always occur
– Coin Toss – Must be Heads or Tails
– P(A) = 1 – P(B) -- (e.g., P(heads) = 1 – P(Tails))
• MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE - When one event occurs the
other cannot happen
– Toss of One Die
• Outcomes (1,2,3,4,5,6) are mutually exclusive
3
Probability Multiplication
• For independent events

P( A and B) = P( A ) * P( B)
LIMIT SOLENOID
SWITCH VALVE
In the next year, the probability of successful operation for a limit

switch is 0.9 and the probability of successful operation for a
solenoid valve is 0.98. What is the probability of success for the
system consisting of both elements.
The probability of systems success requires the limit switch is
successful and the solenoid valve is successful, thus using
probability multiplication:
Psystem = 0.9 * 0.98 = 0.882 4
Probability Addition
Mutually Exclusive Events
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
A B
One die is rolled. What is the probability of getting a 4 or a 6?
It is the probability of rolling 4 or rolling 6. The probability of
rolling 4 is 1/6, the probability of rolling 6 is 1/6, thus the
probability of rolling 4 or 6 is 1/6 + 1/6 or 2/6.
5
Probability Addition
Independent Events
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
Not
A B
Mutually
Exclusive
A sack contains 100 objects. All are either marbles and cubes. All are either red or
green. 75 % of the objects are marbles. 80% of the objects are green. If an object
is randomly selected, what is the probability that it will be either a marble or green?
The events MARBLE and GREEN are not mutually exclusive because it is possible
to withdraw an object that is both a marble and green. Thus, the non-mutually
exclusive form of probability addition is used.
P(M and G) = 0.75 + 0.8 – (0.75 * 0.8) = 0.95
6
• Probability Addition
– Non-Mutually Exclusive
A B
What about three?
P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - C

P(A * B) - P(A * C) - P(B * C) +
P(A * B * C)
7
A B
What about three?
P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - C

P(A * B) - P(A * C) - P(B * C) +
P(A * B * C)
8
A B
What about three?
P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) C

-P(A * B) -P(A * C) -P(B * C)
+P(A * B * C)
9
A B
What about three?

-P(A * B) - P(A * C) - P(B * C) +
P(A * B * C)
10
A B
What about three?

-P(A * B) -P(A * C) -P(B * C) +
P(A * B * C)
11
A B
What about three?

-P(A * B) -P(A * C) -P(B * C)
+P(A * B * C)
12
A B
What about three?

-P(A * B) -P(A * C) -P(B * C)
+P(A * B * C)
13
– Non-Mutually Exclusive A B
General Solution:
C
P(a OR b OR … OR n) =
1 – (1-Pa)* (1-Pb)*…*(1-Pn)
14
• On the throw of a pair of fair dice, what is the

probability of getting a four on both die?
• On the throw of a pair of fair dice, what is the

probability of getting the same number on both die?
• Assume that birth probabilities are P(boy) = 0.5,

P(girl) = 0.5. A family has two girls, what is the
probability that the third child born will be a girl?
15
• You load one bullet into the chamber of fifty shot

revolver. Once a year spin the chamber and fire into
your chemical storage tank. If the gun fires, the tank
will explode causing an "incident" (equipment
damage and an environmental problem). What is the
probability of an incident in the first year?
• What is the probability of an incident over an interval
of three years?
• What is the probability of an incident in thirty
years?
16
Fault Tree
Main Symbols
• Symbols
Commonly Used Occasionally Used
OR Gate Incomplete Event
AND Gate Inhibit Gate
Event or Resulting Fault Trigger Event
Basic Event
17
Fault Tree ‘AND’ Gates
Battery
Quantitative Analysis of Fault
system failure Trees - combine probabilities
using probability multiplication.
What is the probability of

battery system failure?
Batteries Charger AND gates are solved using
discharged fails
probability multiplication:
P = 0.2 P = 0.01 Ptop = 0.2 * 0.01 = 0.002
18
Fault Tree ‘OR’ Gates
Shutoff valve Quantitative Analysis of Fault

Fails to close Trees - combine probabilities
using probability addition.
What is the probability the
valve fails to close?
Valve stem
OR gates are solved using
Solenoid probability addition (non-mutually
fails to vent sticks,
preventing exclusive in this case):
actuator
closure Ptop = 0.001 + 0.001 – (0.001 *
0.001) = 0.001999
P = 0.001 P = 0.001
19
Summary:
• Probability is assigned by…
• Types of events
• Probability multiplication
• Probability addition
• Fault tree analysis basics
20
Exercise 1
• A system has a transmitter, a controller, and
a valve. The probability of failure for the next
five years equals 0.15 for the transmitter,
0.008 for the controller, and 0.19 for the valve
– Draw a Fault Tree describing the situation.
– For the next five year time interval what is the
probability of system success?
21
Exercise 2
• For a chemical being pumped into a tank to
spill out of the discharge piping
– There must be more material in the delivery truck
than space available in the tank (P=0.25) AND
– The operator must forget to stop the pump when
the tank is full (P=0.1)
• Draw of fault tree describing this scenario.
• What is the probability that the tank is
overfilled?
22
Exercise 1 (Key)
• System will fail if any System
element fails – use OR Failure
gate.
• Are failures mutually
exclusive?
• Probability of success
over five years is Transmitter Control Valve
Failure Failure Failure
(1-0.15) x (1-0.008) x
(1-0.19) = 0.683.
23
Exercise 2 (Key)
• A spill occurs if Spill Occurs
– There is too much
material AND
P = 0.025
– The operator does not
stop the pump
• Overall probability
calculated using Operator
Too much
probability multiplication material in fails to stop
truck pump
P = 0.25 P = 0.1
24

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Section I-3

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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section I-3

• Probability assigned by two methods:

– Experimental outcome determination

• INDEPENDENT - Events that do not affect each other

• For independent events

In the next year, the probability of successful operation for a limit

P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - C

P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - C

P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) C

P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) C

P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) C

P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) C

P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) C

• On the throw of a pair of fair dice, what is the

• On the throw of a pair of fair dice, what is the

• Assume that birth probabilities are P(boy) = 0.5,

• You load one bullet into the chamber of fifty shot

AND Gate Inhibit Gate

Event or Resulting Fault Trigger Event

Fault Tree ‘AND’ Gates

What is the probability of

P = 0.2 P = 0.01 Ptop = 0.2 * 0.01 = 0.002

Fault Tree ‘OR’ Gates

Shutoff valve Quantitative Analysis of Fault

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