Chapter 10:

Basics of Confidence Intervals

Jun06/09/24Basic
9, 2024 Biostat 10: Intro to Confidence Intervals 1
In Chapter 10:

10.1 Introduction to Estimation

10.2 Confidence Interval for μ (σ known)
10.3 Sample Size Requirements
10.4 Relationship Between Hypothesis
Testing and Confidence Intervals

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§10.1: Introduction to Estimation
Two forms of estimation
• Point estimation ≡ most likely value of
parameter (e.g., x-bar is point estimator of µ)
• Interval estimation ≡ range of values with
known likelihood of capturing the parameter, i.e.,
a confidence interval (CI)

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 Reasoning Behind a 95% CI
• The next slide demonstrates how CIs are
based on sampling distributions
• If we take multiple samples from the
sample population, each sample will
derive a different 95% CI
• 95% of the CIs will capture μ & 5% will not

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 Confidence Interval for μ
• To create a 95% confidence interval for μ,
surround each sample mean with margin
of error m:

m ≈ 2×SE = 2×(σ/√n)

• The 95% confidence interval for μ is:

xm
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Sampling
distribution of a
mean (curve).

Below the curve

are five CIs.

In this example,
all but the third CI
captured μ

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 “Body Weight” Example
• Body weights of 20-29-year-old males
have unknown μ and σ = 40
• Take an SRS of n = 712 from population
• Calculate: x-bar =183
 40
SE x    1.5 and m  2  SE x  2  1.5  3
n 712
95% CI for   x  m
 183  3
 180 to 186 pounds
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 Confidence Interval Formula
Here is a more accurate and flexible formula


x  z1  
n 2

Equivalently, x  z1   SE x
2

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Common Levels of Confidence
Confidence level Alpha level Z value
1–α α z1–(α/2)
.90 .10 1.645
.95 .05 1.960
.99 .01 2.576

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 90% Confidence Interval for μ
Data: SRS, n = 712, σ = 40, x-bar = 183

90% CI for   x  z1 .1 
2
n
40
 183  1.645 
712
 183  2.5
 180.5 to 185.5

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 95% Confidence Interval for μ
Data: SRS, n = 712, σ = 40, x-bar = 183

95% CI for   x  z1 .05 
2
n
40
 183  1.960 
712
 183  2.9
 180.1 to 185.9

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 99% Confidence Interval for μ
Data: SRS, n = 712, σ = 40, x-bar = 183

99% CI for   x  z1 .01 
2
n
40
 183  2.576 
712
 183  3.9
 179.1 to 186.9

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Confidence Level and CI Length
UCL ≡ Upper Confidence Limit; LCL ≡ Lower Limit;
Confidence Body weight CI length
level example = UCL – LCL
90% 180.5 to 185.5 185.5 – 180.5 = 5.0
95% 180.1 to 185.9 185.9 – 180.1 = 5.8
99% 179.1 to 186.9 186.9 – 179.1 = 7.8

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10.3 Sample Size Requirements
Ask: How large a sample is need to
determine a (1 – α)100% CI with margin of
error m?
2
 
n   z1   
 2 m
Illustrative example: Recall that WAIS has σ = 15. Suppose we
want a 95% CI for μ
For 95% confidence, α = .05, z1–.05/2 = z.975 = 1.96 (Continued on
next slide)
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 Illustrative Examples: Sample Size
2 2
   15 
For m  5, use n   z1     1.96    34.6  35
 2 m  5
2
 15 
For m  2.5, use n  1.96    138.3  139
 2 .5 
2
 15 
For m  1, use n  1.96    864.4  865
 1
(1) Round up to ensure precision
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(2) Smaller require
to Confidence larger n
Intervals 16
 10.4 Relation Between Testing and
Confidence Intervals
Rule: Rejects H0 at α level of significance
when μ0 falls outside the (1−α)100% CI.
Illustration: Next slide

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 Example: Testing and CIs
Illustration: Test H0: μ = 180

Reject H0 at α =.05
Retain H0 at α =.01

This CI excludes 180

This CI includes 180
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