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Market Risk Lecture 1
Market Risk Lecture 1
Market Risk
factors that affect the overall
performance of financial markets.
EQUITY RISK.
Equity risk is the risk of loss due to fluctuations in stock prices. It arises from factors
such as changes in a company's financial performance, industry trends, and broader
economic conditions.
Interest rate risk is the potential for loss due to changes in interest rates, which can
impact the value of fixed-income investments such as bonds.
Types Of Market Risk
Each type of risk arises from different factors and can impact a portfolio's performance in unique ways:
CURRENCY RISK.
Currency risk, also known as exchange rate risk, refers to the potential for loss due to
fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates.
COMMODITY RISK.
Commodity risk is the risk of loss due to fluctuations in the prices of commodities such
as oil, gold, and agricultural products.
Factors Affecting Market Risk
Factors Affecting Equity Risk
Factors Affecting Interest Rate Risk • Changes in interest rates
• Monetary policy decisions by central banks • Inflation
• Inflation expectations • Political events
• Economic conditions • Changes in a company's management
• Financial performance
• Industry-specific events
03
04
Factors Affecting Currency Risk
• Changes in economic conditions
•
•
Political events
Central bank policies
01 02 Factors Affecting Commodity Risk
• Changes in supply and demand
• Market sentiment • Geopolitical events
• Country or region economic stability, • Macroeconomic conditions
fiscal policies, and geopolitical events. • Weather events
• Technological advancements
• Regulatory changes
Market Risk Management Strategies
DIVERSIFICATION
HEDGING
Key risk indicators (KRIs) are metrics that provide insight into
the level of risk exposure in a portfolio or organization.
Examples of KRIs include Value at Risk, volatility, and credit
ratings.
EQUITY RISK EQUITY RISK
•Background: Eastman Kodak Company was a •Background: Hertz is a car rental company with
multinational imaging and photography company. a global presence.
•Crisis: Kodak filed for bankruptcy in 2012, citing •Crisis: In 2020, Hertz filed for bankruptcy after
the challenges of adapting to digital photography facing a sharp decline in demand for car rentals
and declining sales of traditional film products. due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The company's
The company's stock had experienced a stock price had already been under pressure, but
prolonged decline as it struggled to transition its the pandemic worsened its financial challenges.
business model.
CASE STUDIES
CURRENCY RISK INTEREST RATE RISK
Nestle and Venezuelan Bolivar Devaluation (2015): Ford Motor Company (2008):
•Background: Nestle is a Swiss multinational food •Background: Ford, like other automakers, relies on
and beverage company with a global presence. access to affordable credit to finance its operations
and support consumer purchases.
•Crisis: In 2015, Nestle faced challenges due to the
devaluation of the Venezuelan Bolivar. The company •Crisis: During the 2008 financial crisis, interest
had significant operations in Venezuela, and the rates rose, credit markets tightened, and consumer
country's economic turmoil and hyperinflation spending declined. These factors, coupled with a
negatively impacted Nestle's financial results. Nestle downturn in the auto industry, led to a severe
had to write down the value of its assets in Venezuela, financial crisis for Ford. The company faced liquidity
leading to a substantial financial hit. issues and had to mortgage its assets to secure
funding.
CASE STUDIES
COMMODITY RISK
•Crisis: In 2015-2016, a crash in commodity prices, particularly in metals and minerals, put significant
pressure on Glencore's balance sheet. The company had substantial debt from acquisitions, and the sharp
decline in commodity prices led to concerns about its ability to service that debt. To address the situation,
Glencore announced a debt reduction plan, including asset sales and a capital raise. The company's stock
price experienced significant volatility during this period.
CASE STUDIES
KEY NOTES TO REMEMBER
Effective market risk management can maintain financial
stability.