ENVE 4200/5200

Climate Change and Engineering

Week 2: The Physical Science of Climate Change

Dr. Thomas W. Walker

January 18, 2021
 Recall from last week, the 1-D radiative balance model:

At the surface:
𝛼𝑆
𝑆 4
( 1− 𝛼 ) 𝑆 4 4
4 + 𝜀𝜎 𝑇 𝐴 =𝜎 𝑇 𝐸
(1 − 𝜀) 𝜎 𝑇 𝐸
4
𝜀𝜎 𝑇 𝐴
4 4

𝑇 𝐴 , 𝜀𝐴
4 At the atmospheric layer:
𝜎𝑇𝐸
4 𝜀𝜎 𝑇 𝐴
(1 −𝛼) 𝑆
4 4
4 𝜀 𝜎 𝑇 𝐸=2 𝜀𝜎 𝑇 𝐴
𝑇𝐸

What gives the atmospheric layer its emissivity?

2
 Solar Radiation is Attenuated by the Atmosphere

• The solar spectrum at the top of atmosphere

and Earth’s surface shows scattering and
absorption as a function of wavelength
• Rayleigh scattering removes a broad range of
wavelengths (more at higher energy)
• Other molecules absorb parts of the solar
spectrum, including ozone, oxygen and
greenhouse gases
• However, the bulk of the incoming radiation is
at wavelengths in the visible and ultraviolet,
where the atmosphere is mostly transparent

[Liou, 2002] 3
 Terrestrial Radiation is Attenuated by the Atmosphere

• The terrestrial spectrum also shows evidence

of absorption
• Specifically, there are easy-to-distinguish
bands for CO2, CH4, O3, and N2O
• H2O absorbs at many different bands

2000cm-1  5m

[www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/schmidt_05, Accessed Sept 2018] 4

Which Molecules Absorb Where and Why?

Recall:

• Molecules are only permitted to absorb or emit light

when they move between energy states
• The wavelength absorbed depends exclusively on the
energy difference between these states

5
 Which Molecules Absorb Where and Why?

Diatomic molecule (e.g. O2) Triatomic molecule (e.g. H2O)

• Symmetric stretch • Symmetric and asymmetric stretch
• 2 dimensions for spinning • Bend
• 3 dimensions for spinning

6
 Energy Absorbed Alters the Radiative Balance

Incoming Radiation – Outgoing Radiation = Radiative Forcing

• Any imbalance in the energy budget requires

a change in the equilibrium temperature
• Units are energy flux per unit time [W/m2]
• Relative to 1750 (preindustrial), Earth’s
current radiative forcing is about 2.3 W/m2
• Mount Pinatubo (1991) caused a peak
radiative forcing of -2.7 ± 1.0 W/m2 (negative
sign indicates radiative cooling)

7
[Wild et al., 2013]
 Absorber Effectiveness Depends on Residence Time in the Atmosphere

• The residence time (or lifetime) of a gas in

the atmosphere usually follows first-order
kinetics
• The steady-state concentration depends on
the magnitude of the source (S) and sinks (k)
• In the absence of a source, an initial
concentration will be reduced by 1/e during
one lifetime,

[Jacob, 1999]
8
 How to Compare Absorbers with Different Lifetimes?

GWP: Energy added by pulse

emission change relative to an
equivalent mass of CO2

GTP: Integrated temperature

response from a pulse emission
change relative to an equivalent
mass of CO2

Blue: 1 year pulse CO2

Red: 1 year pulse of gas with
13 year lifetime
Green: 1 year pulse of gas
with 1.5 year lifetime

9
[AR5, Ch.8]
 GHG Lifetime (yr) Concentration GWP20 GWP100

CO2 100-300 413 ppm 1 1

CH4 12.4 1849 ppb 84 28
N 2O 121.0 331 ppb 264 265
CFC-11 45.0 228 ppt 6900 4660
HCFC-134a 13.4 84 ppt 3710 1300

T impact for 1-year pulse of 2008

anthropogenic emissions

[AR5, Ch.8 and

www.esrl.noaa.gov] 10
 Long-lived GHG Simplified Expressions for Rad Forcing

[Etminan et al, 2016] 11

 12
[AR5, Ch.8]
[https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/, Accessed Jan 2020] 13
[https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/, Accessed Jan 2020]
14
 Carbon Dioxide Reservoirs and Fluxes

Red: anthropogenic

[AR5, Ch. 6]
15
A year in the life of Earth’s carbon

16
 Ice Cores Offer View of Paleoclimate

• Current concentration (>400 ppm) greater than any time in the past 400,000 years
• Current rate of change (~0.8oC/100yr) exceeds that of any past period

[U.S. Global Change Research Program] 17

[https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/, Accessed Jan 2020] 18
 Methane Reservoirs and Fluxes

[AR5, Ch. 6]
19
[AR5, Ch. 6]
20
 Short-Lived Climate Forcers

21
[AR5, Ch.8]
 Short-Lived Climate Forcers: Ozone

• Ozone is formed in the troposphere by the

oxidation of hydrocarbons in the presence of NOx.

• Decreases to CH4, NOx, CO, or VOC emissions will

(usually) decrease ozone.
• Chemistry producing ozone in the troposphere is
fast (~1 day) and ozone lifetime in the
troposphere can be several weeks.

22
[AR5, Ch.8]
 Short-Lived Climate Forcers: Ozone

July 2008, simulated ozone at 600 hPa

23
[AR5, Ch.8]
 Short-Lived Climate Forcers: Aerosols

• Aerosols are suspended particles in the

atmosphere, and are formed from combinations
of SO2, NOx, NH3, and organic or inorganic
particulate emissions.
• Aerosols have a direct radiative effect, because
they will scatter or absorb both solar and
terrestrial radiation. The radiative properties
depend on both aerosol size and composition.
• Aerosols also serve as the nuclei on which cloud
droplets condense, which leads to some indirect
effects through altering cloud properties.

24
[AR5, Ch.7]
 Summary

• Greenhouse gases absorb radiation in the atmosphere.

• Their effect on temperature is linked through forcing to
concentrations and ultimately emissions.
• The magnitude of a GHG’s warming potential depends
on where in the spectrum it absorbs, but also how long
it remains in the atmosphere.
• Nevertheless, short-lived climate forcers can have
significant impact on radiative balance.
• Concentrations of WMGHG come about from a balance
of sources and sinks (some anthropogenic, others
natural).

25
 References
• AR5 = IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor,
S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
• Etminan, M. et al. [2016]. Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of
the methane radiative forcing. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 12614-12623.
• Jacob, D. J. [1999]. Introduction to Atmospheric Chemistry. Princeton University Press.
• Liou, K. N. [2002]. An Introduction to Atmospheric Radiation. 2nd ed. Academic Press, International Geophysics Series,
Vol. 84.
• Minnis, P. et al. [1993]. Radiative Climate Forcing by the Mount Pinatubo Eruption. Science, 259 (5100), 1411-1415.
• Wild, M. et al [2013]. The global energy balance from a surface perspective. Clim. Dyn. 40, 3107-3134.
• https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/schmidt_05/
• https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/
• https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/
• https://scied.ucar.edu/simple-climate-model

26