ISSUE #3

Why Does Population Growth Vary Among Regions?

(one of the most important Key Issues in the book!)
List what you think are the 10 most
populated countries in the world
1. China
2. India
3. U.S.
4. Indonesia
5. Brazil
6. Pakistan
7. Bangladesh
8. Nigeria
9. Russia
10. Japan
List what you think will be the 10 most
populated countries in the world in
the year 2050
1. India
2. China
3. U.S.
4. Pakistan
5. Nigeria
6. Indonesia
7. Bangladesh
8. Brazil
9. Ethiopia
10. Democratic Republic of the Congo
WORLD POPULATION

2010 2050
• 1. China • 1. India
• 2. India • 2. China
• 3. U.S. • 3. U.S.
• 4. Indonesia • 4. Pakistan
• 5. Brazil • 5. Nigeria
• 6. Pakistan • 6. Indonesia
• 7. Bangladesh • 7. Bangladesh
• 8. Nigeria • 8. Brazil
• 9. Russia • 9. Ethiopia
• 10. Japan • 10. Democratic Republic of the Congo
PDS
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
• A process of change in a
society’s population

• This transition will vary in

different places, at different
times

• Process has different stages,

every country is either 2,3, or 4
STAGE 1: LOW GROWTH
• Characterizes most of humanity
throughout Earth’s history

• NIR = 0 (roughly); high CBR

and CDR

• Agricultural revolution led to

population increase (8000 BC)
but unreliable food supply kept
societies in stage 1 until mid-
1700s
 STAGE 2: HIGH GROWTH
• After 1750 world population grew
MUCH faster

• CDR plummets and CBR remains

about the same (NIR goes way up
because the gap between CDR and CBR
is high)

• industrial revolution (mid-1700s)

spurred this change and pushed some
countries into stage 2

• Countries in Europe and NA entered S2

in about 1800, many in Asia and Africa
didn’t get there until 1950 (why? –
medical revolution)
STAGE 3: MODERATE GROWTH
• CBR drops sharply and CDR falls, but
at a much slower rate than in S2
(population increases but only
moderately because the gap between
CBR and CDR narrows)

• European and NA countries entered S3

in the first half of the 20th century

• Most Asian and LA countries moved

there recently, most African countries
are still in S2

• People choose to have fewer children

(social behavior changes)
• ---read p.59
STAGE 4: LOW GROWTH
• CBR declines until it equals CDR
(NIR = 0)

• Also called zero population

growth (TFR results in a lack of
change in total population)

• Most European countries are

here

• Social changes explain the

change from S3 to S4 (p.60)
 TYPE 2
• List the factors that push a society from stage 1 to stage 2, stage 2 to
stage 3, and stage 3 to stage 4.
TYPE 2
• List the factors that push a society from stage 1 to stage 2, stage 2 to stage 3,
and stage 3 to stage 4.

a. Industrial rev. and medical rev. - push from 1 to 2

b. People decide to have fewer children – push from 2 to 3 (lower IMR,

economic changes such as not working on farms and smaller living spaces in
urban settings)

c. People have even fewer children due to things such as more women in the
workforce, more leisure, time, more use on birth control … - push from 3 to 4
Which stage am I?
1. CBR and CDR are about the same, have good technology, food supply
and health care

2. Most of human history has been in my stage

3. CBR stays relatively the same as it was in the previous stage, but CDR
plummets

4. NIR increases, but moderately, as gap between CDR and CBR narrows
Which stage am I?
1. CBR and CDR are about the same, have good technology, food supply
and health care ; zero population growth
(Stage 4)

2. Most of human history has been in my stage

(Stage 1)

3. CBR stays relatively the same as it was in the previous stage, but CDR
plummets
(Stage 2)

3. NIR increases, but moderately, as gap between CDR and CBR narrows;
CBR drops sharply
As a country moves through the demographic transition, the shape
of the pyramid flattens. Cape Verde’s pyramid has a broad base, as
is typical of a country in Stage 2. Chile’s graph still resembles a
pyramid and Denmark’s pyramid is flat, an indication of the aging
of the population.
STAGE 2-High Growth: CAPE VERDE
(p.64)
STAGE 3-Moderat Growth: CHILE (p.65)
STAGE 4-Low Growth: DENMARK (p.66)
POPULATION PYRAMIDS
• Draw a pyramid representing • Draw 2 pyramids, not labeled,
each stage (2,3,4) – no pyramid that your classmates will have to
for stage 1 identify ( they can be any stage)

• Add a brief description

explaining why the pyramid
represents that particular stage
DECLINING BIRTH RATES
• Global CBR has been declining 1. Lowering birth rates through
quickly since 1990 education and healthcare

• 2 strategies have been especially 2. Lowering birth rates through

effective contraception
Ex. Bangladesh

--- debates/issues with

contraception?
DECLINING CRUDE BIRTH RATES
 MALTHUS
(1798 – An Essay on the Principle of
Population)

What did he Say?

• Global population was
growing much faster than the
Earth’s food supply

• Population increases
geometrically

• Food supply increases

arithmetically
 MALTHUS
(population growth is outrunning food supply)
Neo-Malthusians
• Believe it is worse than Malthus
anticipated:
1. more countries have entered stage 2
so gap between population and
resources is greater than he anticipated
(especially in LDCs)
2. not just food is being outstripped,
world population is too much for other
resources as well (clean air, arable land,
water, fuel)
Critics
• Food supply of Malthus
is not fixed, it can
be expanded (possibilism)
• Larger population can actually
stimulate economic growth,
leading to more production of
food and technologies
• Marxists don’t blame pop.
growth, they blame
inequalities of capitalism
MALTHUS’ THEORY & REALITY
• Since 1950 world food supply
has grown faster than global NIR
(why?)
• new techniques, better seeds, use
of more land, Green Revolution
• He was close on food
production, but predictions
about population were off
• During past ¼ century
population has been increasing
at a much slower rate than
previous ½ century
• However, this still adds to our
population (why?) – so he wasn’t
completely wrong
Production of
wheat and rice
has increased
more rapidly
than its
population.
POPULATION FUTURES
• It is predicted that the NIR will
be much slower in the 21st
century than in the 20th
• Why?
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION-
STAGE 5?
• What 2 major breaks from the
past characterize the 4 stages of
the DT?

• Stage 5 would be characterized by:

• Very low CBR
• Increasing CDR
• Negative NIR

--- some European countries already

have negative NIRs (Russia)
Nearly all of the world’s population growth is forecast to be in
developing countries
Stage 5 of
the
Demographi
c Transition
would be
characterize
d by a
negative
NIR,
because the
CDR would
be greater
than the
CBR.
FAMILY PLANNING STRATEGIES

INDIA CHINA
• 1952 – becomes first country to start a • Began the One Child Policy in 1980
national family planning program • Subsidies
• Longer maternity leave
• Permit
• Clinics provide info about methods of • More land, maybe
birth control • Delayed marriage

• Free contraceptives
• Abortion is legal
• Role of the State Family Planning
• Sterilization program? Commission?

• Rules of the One Child Policy have been

• Education/advertisements relaxed recently (in what ways/)