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Supplyresponsemodels 200501170258
Supplyresponsemodels 200501170258
RESPONSE MODEL
The supply response function shows the functional relationship between price of
the commodity and quantity supplied on the assumption that other determinants
of supply are held constant. These other determinants are rainfall, fertilizer prices
of competing crops, wages etc.
When the 'ceteris paribus' assumption is not met then there will be shifts in the
supply curve. As such the 'ceteris paribus’ assumption is not satisfied and the
simple relationship extend to a multivariate one.
Need for the supply response function
Supply responses of primary producers vary considerably according to the
characteristics of the crops analyzed.
Annual/seasonal and perennial crops have different characteristics and present
different conceptual problems. Therefore, they require the use of different models.
Most of the econometric studies on supply responses have been carried out on
annual/seasonal crops. These crops form the staple foods of most underdeveloped
countries and as self-sufficiency in food became the overriding aim of most of the
underdeveloped countries, emphasis was placed on such crops.
Policies which could encourage greater production of these staple crops were
required and formulation of these policies necessitated supply response studies on
such crops. What therefore, needed is a comprehensive supply model which can
incorporate the various alternative opportunities open to the farmer.
RESPONSIVENESS OF PERENNIAL CROPS
The time horizon involved for the producers of perennial crops is much
longer than that of annual crops. For perennial crops yield are dependent upon
age of the tree, previous output and current as well as previous level of input.
The aim of all supply response studies When more than one crop is being
is to find out how a farmer intends to cultivated the aim is to find out how the
farmer intends to reallocate his efforts
react to movements in the price of the between the various crops in response to
crop he produces. changes in the relative price levels.
The complex
The Partial Adaptive Nerlovian
adjustment model expectation model expectations
model
According to Koyck, current value of a variable say A (area) depends on many
lagged values for another variable (price) Pt, Pt-1, Pt-2, Pt-3 ….etc. it is normally
expected that more remote values would tend to have smaller influence than
more recent.
In the Native Expectation Model (i.e., the Cobweb model) the current
expected price P*t is assumed to be equal to the previous period's actual price
(Pt-1). This is usually done in the case where agricultural markets are
controlled by the government and future prices are announced prior to planting
time.
The Extrapolative Expectation model (Goodwin, 1947) It assumes the
expected price to be a function of the lagged price plus or minus some fraction
of the price change in the previous two periods.
P*t = Pt-1 + β (Pt-1 - Pt-2)
The Nerlovian model is considered one of the most influential and
successful models used to estimate agricultural supply response among all
the econometric models.
. Time series data are often used for the commodity under
study to capture the dynamics of agriculture production.