1

∑ 𝑥𝑖
Lean Six Sigma GLENCORE
𝑛
Statistics BOK

Technique – Paired t-Test

Document Code Language Base Release

LSS-TEC-047 EN 0.41 0
 1
𝑛
∑ 𝑥𝑖
Lean Six Sigma
Statistics BOK

Introduction
Background for our Example
Performing the Paired t-Test
Summary

2
Introduction

Comparing mean differences between dependent observations

Paired t-Test
Continuous Data
Attribute
Type ?
First Second
Sample of Sample of
Continuous Continuous
Data Data Sample Standard
Mean (s) What are Deviation(s)
you
comparing
H0: µA - µB = 0 ?
Ha: µA - µB ≠ 0

1 Sample t-Test 2 Sample t-Test Paired t-Test

Comparing a Independent Samples: Dependent Samples:

Sample Mean with a Comparing one Comparing mean differences
given Constant Sample Mean between dependent
m with another Sample Mean observations
mA mA-mB
c
mB
0 3
Introduction

Independent vs dependent samples

The 2 sample t-test
• The samples are independent
• There is no relationship between
observations in the first sample and
observations in the second sample
• The samples means are compared
Relationship present when…
• Each observation in the first sample
can be paired with an observation in
the second sample
• A “one to one” mapping exists

The paired t-test

• The samples are dependent
First sample Second sample
• There is a relationship between
observations in the first sample and
observations in the second sample
• The samples means are compared

Example scenarios for paired t-test

• Comparing performance of individuals
before/after training
• Drug trials (e.g. person’s blood pressure
before and after drug treatment) 4
 1
𝑛
∑ 𝑥𝑖
Lean Six Sigma
Statistics BOK

Introduction
Background for our Example
Performing the Paired t-Test
Summary

5
Background for our Example

Sample prep time

Background

A large analytical lab has 26 employees working in the sample prep area. One
sample type requires a multi-step process (drying, pulverizing, weighing) to
prepare it for XRF analysis.

A baseline of each employee’s prep time (minutes) was gathered. After a new
process was developed and implemented (with appropriate training), another
sample of employee prep times was recorded.

Before and after data is available for each of the 26 employees.

Question

Has the process improvement led to reduced sample prep

times?
6
Background on our Example

The Data

File: [LSS-DAT-020_EN] Data - SamplePrep.mwx

• Column C2 (Before) contains the baseline
Minitab sample prep times (minutes)
Worksheet
• Column C3 (After) contains the sample prep
times (minutes) after an improvement project

7
Background on our Example

The paired t-Test

Number of Samples Involved

• We have two samples taken from two populations.
• The first sample has the “before” performance
• The second sample has the “after” performance
• The samples are dependent; there is a relationship between
observations

Condition to Test
• Is there a difference in employee?
• After determining the improvement between each employee’s
before/after observations,

Is the before performance – after performance > 0

The appropriate test is called the “Paired t-Test”

8
 1
𝑛
∑ 𝑥𝑖
Lean Six Sigma
Statistics BOK

Introduction
Background for our Example
Performing the Paired t-Test
Summary

9
Performing the Paired t-Test

General Hypothesis Testing Roadmap

Step # Step Name Note: At this time we will not explore the test
1 Plot the Data requirements.
2 State the Null and Alternate Hypotheses (H0 vs Ha)
3 Choose the Significance Level
4 Check the Test Requirements
5 Run the Test
6 Interpret the Test Output
7 Draw a Conclusion

10
Performing the Paired t-Test

Plot the Data (1 of 4)

Plot the data! Look for patterns, trends, shapes, shifts, and outliers.

1. Select Stat > Basic Statistics > Graphical Summary 2. Select the continuous variables Before and
After (OldProcess)
3. Press OK to create the charts

11
Performing the Paired t-Test

Plot the Data (2 of 4)

Although the two samples have different means, is there enough evidence to say they are significantly
different?

Sample mean = 61 minutes Sample mean = 58 minutes

12
Performing the Paired t-Test

Plot the Data (3 of 4)

Another useful plot is the Box Plot 2. Select Multiple Y’s Simple and press OK
3. Graph variables Before and After
1. Select Graph > Boxplot
4. Press OK to create the charts

13
Performing the Paired t-Test

Plot the Data (4 of 4)

This chart was revised to show

• The mean and median values (Add Data Labels)
• The symbols (Add Data Display)

14
Performing the Paired t-Test

State the Hypotheses

State the null and alternative hypotheses… Note:

• Internally the
H 0: Before performance = After performance paired t-test
is deriving
Ha: Before performance ≠ After performance
the
individual
Or more formally (since paired samples)… differences
and
H0: µ Difference of (Before – After) = 0 performing a
Ha: µ Difference of (Before – After) > 0 one-sample
t-test on the
difference

Note: Notice the alternative hypothesis was not phrased as H0: µ = 0

“difference ≠ 0”. Since we are specifically interested
in an improvement (i.e. a positive difference), it is
Ha: µ > 0
phased as “difference > 0”. This is an example of
moving from a two-tailed test to a one-tailed test. 15
Performing the Paired t-Test

Choose the significance level

We want to be 95% confident in our conclusion. This corresponds to an a risk level of 5%

95% Being right this often…

Implies

5%
…we are willing to be wrong this often

16
Performing the Paired t-Test

Run the Test

1. Select Stat > Basic Statistics > Paired t 2. With individual columns data, select Each sample is in a
column
3. Sample 1 in column Before
4. Sample 2 in column After
5. Press Options and
• Ensure Confidence level is at 95
• Hypothesized difference is 0
• Alternative hypothesis is Difference > hypothesized
difference
• Press OK to close the Options dialog box
6. Press OK to run the test

17
Performing the Paired t-Test

Interpret the test output

H0: µ Difference of (Before – After) = 0
Difference in Sample Means Ha: µ Difference of (Before – After) > 0
• Two samples each of size n=26
• Difference in sample means of 3.3

Difference in Population Means

• We’re 95% confident that the population mean difference in
paired observations (µ) is larger than 2.511

Your conclusion is based on the p-Value

• We examine the p-value using the reminder
“if the p is low, the null must go”
• What do you conclude?

18
Performing the Paired t-Test

Draw a conclusion

Conclusion…
Question: Has the process improvement led to reduced sample prep times?
Answer: Yes

With a p Value of 0.000 …

• This low probability (p value of 0.000 < 0.05) tells

us that we have sufficient evidence to reject H0
• There is a significant reduction in employee
average sample prep times

19
Performing the Paired t-Test

Additional Notes (1 of 2)
Note that
• By performing a Paired t-Test instead of a regular 2 Sample t-Test, we removed the “employee”
effect (i.e. the effect of the pairing factor) from the analysis. Some employees might indeed have
been inherently faster or slower than other employees, thereby contributing additional variability in
the data we would have compared using a 2 Sample t-Test. By taking before-and-after differences,
the individual levels of performances were taken out of the data, leading to lower variability in the
data.
• For this reason, Paired t-Tests are always much more powerful than the equivalent 2 Sample-t Tests,
meaning that with a Paired t-Test you have a lot better chance of detecting a difference of means as
being significant.
• Paired t-Tests can only be used if there is some factor uniquely linking every data point from the first
sample to a related data point in the second sample (in this case, the employee that was involved).
This also means that Paired t-Tests must compare samples that have the same size, a condition that
is not required for 2 Sample t-Tests.

20
Performing the Paired t-Test

Additional Notes (2 of 2)
Note that
• We also saw in this module the application of a one-tailed test. When using a one-tailed test, we are looking
at the 5% likelihood of the alpha error being all on one side of the normal curve instead of split among both
sides of the normal curve. This has the effect of bringing the confidence limit on that one side closer to the
mean of the data, which in turn gives us a better chance of detecting a difference as being significant.
• This makes one-tailed tests slightly more powerful than the equivalent two-tailed tests. You lose however,
the ability to determine whether there might be some significant inequality on the other side of the curve.

2-tailed test: Reject H0 Do not reject H0 Reject H0

1-tailed test: Do not reject H0 Reject H0

21
 1
𝑛
∑ 𝑥𝑖
Lean Six Sigma
Statistics BOK

Introduction
Background for our Example
Performing the Paired t-Test
Summary

22
Summary

Paired t-Test hypothesis testing roadmap

Step # Step Name Comment
1 Plot the Data Stat > Basic Statistics > Graphical Summary
Stat > Graph > Boxplot
• Multiple Y’s (simple – no grouping)

2 State the Null and Alternate Hypotheses (H0 vs Ha)
3 Choose the Significance Level
4 Check the Test Requirements
H0: µ Difference of (Sample1 – Sample2) = 0
Ha: µ Difference of (Sample1 – Sample 2) > 0, <0 or ≠0
The alternative hypothesis depends on what you are proving
Lean Six Sigma uses
• an a risk level of 5%, which implies a
• significance level of 95% (1 – a)
We’ll discuss these later

5 Run the Test Stat > Basic Statistics > Paired t

6 Interpret the Test Output Examine the p-value

7 Draw a Conclusion Always base conclusions on the p-value

If the p value < 0.05, then there is sufficient evidence to reject
the null hypothesis

23