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Chap5 Relative Valuation
Chap5 Relative Valuation
Relative Valuation
Outline
EV – EBITDA ratio
EV – FCFF ratio
EV – book value ratio
EV – sales ratio
Calculate the Valuation Multiples for the Comparable
Companies Based on the observed financial attributes and
values of the comparable companies, calculate the valuation
multiples for them. To illustrate, suppose that there are two
comparable companies, P and Q, with the following financial
numbers.
P Q
Applying the average multiples to the financial numbers of firm D gives the following
enterprise value estimates:
EBITDA of D : Rs. 400 Book Value of D : Rs. 1000 Sales of D : Rs. 2500
million million million
Which Measure
Fundamental Determinants
From a fundamental point of view
(1 - b)
Po/E1 =
r – ROE X b
where (1 - b) is the dividend payout ratio, r is the cost of equity, ROE
is the return on equity, and b is the ploughback ratio.
0.4
Po/E1 = = 9.52
0.15 – 018 X 0.6
Reasons for Using the P/E
Ratio
Earnings power .. Major driver of
investment value.
AIMR survey.. earnings ranked first
among four variables – earnings, cash
flow, book value, and dividends – as
an input in equity valuation.
Empirical research low P/E stocks
outperform the market.
Drawbacks of P/E
Negative EPS
Maintainable EPS
Manipulation
P/B Ratio
Po ROE (1 - b)
=
BVo r–g
Po 0.20 (0.4)
= = 2.00
BVo 0.16 – 0.12
Reasons for Using P/B
Stock figure.. generally +
BV .. more stable .. EPS.
P/B differences'.. long–term average
returns
Drawbacks of P/B
Intangible assets
Inflation and technological changes
Different business models
P/S Ratio
Rationale
Norm
Fundamental Determinants
From a fundamental point of view,
Po NPM (1+ g) (1 - b)
=
So r–g
where NPM is the net profit margin ratio, g is the growth rate, (1 - b) is
the dividend payout ratio, and r is the rate of return required by
equity investors.
No manipulation
Always positive
More stable than EPS
PS ratio .. long-term average
returns
Summation
Let us look at the equations for PE ratio, PBV ratio, and PS ratio.
(1-b) = (1-b)
PE =
r – ROE x b r–g
ROE (1-b)
PBV =
(r – g)
EV
EBITDA
Fundamental Determinants
EV ROIC – g
= X (1 - DA) (1 - t)
EBITDA ROIC X (WACC – g)
ROIC - g
= IC o x
WACC - g
EV IC o ROIC – g
= x
EBITDA EBITDA WACC – g
EV
EBIT
EV
EBIT (1 - Tax)
Fundamental Determinants
EV
FCFF
Fundamentals Determinants
EVo 1
=
FFCF1 WACC - g
EV
BV
Fundamental Determinants
EVo ROIC - g
=
BVo WACC - g
EV ROIC – g NOPLAT
= X
Unit ROIC X (WACC -g) Unit
where ROIC is the return on invested capital,
g is the growth rate, WACC is the weighted
average cost of capital, NOPLAT is the net
operating profit less adjusted taxes, and unit
is the measure of the operational variable.
Choice of Multiple
In choosing the multiple the analyst can adopt the multiple that reflects
his bias (the cynical view), or use all the multiples (the bludgeon view),
or pick the “best” multiple.
There are three ways to find the best multiple. The fundamental approach
suggests that we should use the variable that has the highest correlation with
the firms value. The statistical approach calls for regressing each multiple
against the fundamentals that theoretically affect the value and using the
multiple with the highest R-squared. The conventional approach involves using
the multiple that has become the most commonly used one for a specific
situation or sector.
The following are the best practices with respect to multiples: (a) choose
comparables with similar profitability and growth prospects. (b) use multiples
that use forward-looking estimates, (c) prefer enterprise-value multiples.