Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Valuation and analysis: bonds with embedded options CFA
Valuation and analysis: bonds with embedded options CFA
2
1. INTRODUCTION
• The valuation of a fixed-rate option-free bond generally
requires determining its future cash flows and discounting
them at the appropriate rates.
• Valuation becomes more complicated when a bond has
one or more embedded options because the values of
embedded options are typically contingent on interest
rates.
• Issuers and investors should understand how embedded
options — such as call and put provisions, conversion
options, caps, and floors — affect bond values and the
sensitivity of these bonds to interest rate movements.
3
2. OVERVIEW OF EMBEDDED OPTIONS
4
CALL OPTIONS
• A callable bond is a bond that includes an embedded call
option.
• The call provision allows the issuer to redeem the bond
issue prior to maturity.
• Early redemption usually happens when the issuer has the
opportunity to replace a high-coupon bond with another bond
that has more favorable terms. (interest rates drop)
• Most callable bonds include a lockout period during which the
issuer cannot call the bond.
5
CALL OPTIONS
• European-style: call option may only be exercised by
issuer on a single date at the end of the lockout period.
6
CALL OPTIONS
• Bonds issued by Government-sponsored enterprises
(GSE) like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Federal Home Loan
Banks and Federal Farm Credit Banks are almost always
callable. They have short maturities (5-10 years) and short
lockout periods (3 months-1 year). Bonds are callable at
100% of par and the option is often Bermudan-style.
• Municipal bonds are almost always callable at 100% of par
any time after the 10 year of maturity.
• Municipal bonds and GSE bonds represent the majority of
callable bonds issued and traded globally.
• Most callable bonds are issued in U.S. dollars or Euros.
7
PUT OPTIONS AND EXTENSION OPTIONS
• A putable bond is a bond that includes an embedded put option.
• The put provision allows the bondholders to put back the bonds to the
issuer prior to maturity, usually at par. This usually happens when
interest rates rise and higher-yielding bonds are available.
• They can be European or, rarely, Bermudan style, but there are
no American-style putable bonds.
8
COMPLEX EMBEDDED OPTIONS
• Although callable and putable bonds are the most common
types of bonds with embedded options, there are bonds
with other types of options or combinations of options.
A bond can be both callable and putable.
9
3. VALUATION AND ANALYSIS OF
CALLABLE AND PUTABLE BONDS
The value of a bond with embedded options is equal to the
sum of the arbitrage-free value of the straight bond and the
arbitrage-free values of the embedded options.
Value of callable bond = Value of straight bond – Value of issuer call option
Value of issuer call option = Value of straight bond – Value of callable bond
Value of putable bond = Value of straight bond + Value of investor put option
Value of investor put option = Value of putable bond – Value of straight bond
10
VALUATION OF DEFAULT-FREE
AND OPTION-FREE BONDS
Refresher:
• The approach relying on one-period forward rates provides an
appropriate framework for valuing bonds with embedded options.
11
VALUATION OF DEFAULT-FREE
AND OPTION-FREE BONDS
Callable Bonds
When the yield on a bond falls to below the coupon rate
(bond is trading at a premium > 100 percent of PAR), call
option is “in the money” and issuer may call bond at PAR,
replacing it with a lower coupon bond.
Putable Bonds
When the yield on a bond rises to above the coupon rate
(bond is trading at a discount < 100 percent of PAR), put
option is “in the money” and investor may put the bond back
to the issuer at PAR, using the proceeds to invest in a new,
higher-coupon bond.
12
VALUATION OF DEFAULT-FREE
AND OPTION-FREE BONDS
13
VALUATION OF DEFAULT-FREE
AND OPTION-FREE BONDS
Example (continued).
Today 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year
Cash Flow 4.250 4.250 104.250
Discount Rate 2.500% 3.518% 4.564%
Value of the =101.707 =100.417 =99.7
Callable Bond Called at 100 Not called
14
VALUATION OF DEFAULT-FREE
AND OPTION-FREE BONDS
Example (continued).
15
INTEREST RATE VOLATILITY
• The value of any embedded option, regardless of the type
of option, increases with interest rate volatility.
• The greater the volatility, the more opportunities exist for
the embedded option to be exercised.
16
INTEREST RATE VOLATILITY
17
INTEREST RATE VOLATILITY
18
YIELD CURVE EFFECTS
• The value of a callable or putable bond is also affected by
changes in the level and shape of the yield curve.
• For a callable bond:
If the yield curve shifts down, the
value of the callable bond rises less
rapidly than the value of the straight
bond, limiting the upside potential
for the investor (level effect).
19
YIELD CURVE EFFECTS
20
YIELD CURVE EFFECTS
21
YIELD CURVE EFFECTS
• For a putable bond:
If the yield curve shifts up, the
value of the putable bond falls
slower than the value of the
straight bond, limiting the
downside loss for the investor
(level effect).
22
YIELD CURVE EFFECTS
23
YIELD CURVE EFFECTS
24
VALUATION OF DEFAULT-FREE CALLABLE AND
PUTABLE BONDS WITH INTEREST RATE VOLATILITY
• The procedure to value a bond with an embedded option in
the presence of interest rate volatility is as follows:
Generate a tree of interest
rates based on the given
yield curve and interest rate
volatility assumptions.
At each node of the tree, determine
whether the embedded options will
be exercised.
Apply the backward induction valuation
methodology to calculate the bond’s
present value.
This methodology involves starting at
maturity and working back from right to
left to find the bond’s present value.
25
VALUATION OF DEFAULT-FREE CALLABLE AND
PUTABLE BONDS WITH INTEREST RATE VOLATILITY
Example. Consider a default-free three-year 4.25% annual
coupon bond using the interest rate tree below (10% volatility) if in
years 1 and 2 they are 1) callable and 2) putable at par:
VALUATION OF DEFAULT-FREE CALLABLE AND
PUTABLE BONDS WITH INTEREST RATE VOLATILITY
27
VALUATION OF DEFAULT-FREE CALLABLE AND
PUTABLE BONDS WITH INTEREST RATE VOLATILITY
• Valuation of nodes in the binomial tree for callable bond in Exhibit 12
Vuu = 0.5*[104.250/1.055258 + 104.250/1.055258] = 98.791
Vud = 0.5*[104.250/1.045242 + 104.250/1.045242] = 99.738
Vdd = 0.5*[104.250/1.037041 + 104.250/1.037041] = 100.526 100.000
Vu = 0.5*[(98.791+4.250)/1.038695 + (99.738+4.250)/1.038695] = 99.658
Vd = 0.5*[(100.000+4.250)/1.031681 + (99.738+4.250)/1.031681] = 100.922 100.000
Vo = 0.5*[(99.658+4.250)/1.025000 + (100.000+4.250)/1.025000] = 101.540
28
29
30
VALUATION OF DEFAULT-FREE CALLABLE AND
PUTABLE BONDS WITH INTEREST RATE VOLATILITY
31
VALUATION OF DEFAULT-FREE CALLABLE AND
PUTABLE BONDS WITH INTEREST RATE VOLATILITY
• Valuation of nodes in the binomial tree for putable bond in Exhibit 13
Vuu = 0.5*[104.250/1.055258 + 104.250/1.055258] = 98.791 100.000
Vud = 0.5*[104.250/1.045242 + 104.250/1.045242] = 99.738 100.000
Vdd = 0.5*[104.250/1.037041 + 104.250/1.037041] = 100.526
Vu = 0.5*[(100.000+4.250)/1.038695 + (100.000+4.250)/1.038695] = 100.366
Vd = 0.5*[(100.000+4.250)/1.031681 + (100.526+4.250)/1.031681] = 101.304
Vo = 0.5*[(100.366+4.250)/1.025000 + (101.304+4.250)/1.025000] = 102.522
32
VALUATION OF RISKY CALLABLE
AND PUTABLE BONDS
The approach for default-free (sovereign) bonds can be
extended to risky (corporate) bonds.
33
VALUATION OF RISKY CALLABLE
AND PUTABLE BONDS
34
VALUATION OF RISKY CALLABLE
AND PUTABLE BONDS
Determining the yield curve for a risky bond from the
risk-free benchmark yield curve - using the Z-spread.
• The Z-spread, also known as the zero-volatility spread, is calculated
as a constant yield spread over a government (or interest rate swap)
spot curve.
35
VALUATION OF RISKY CALLABLE
AND PUTABLE BONDS
• The Z-spread is called the "zero-volatility spread" because it
does not take into account any variation in interest rates over
time. The same value of "Z" is used to adjust the spot rates for
all maturities.
• The Z-spread includes the
- credit risk,
- liquidity risk, and
- option risk
that are associated with the risky bond, over and above the risk-
free benchmark bond spot rates.
• A more appropriate adjustment to the benchmark rates for bonds
with embedded options is the Option Adjusted Spread (OAS).
36
VALUATION OF RISKY CALLABLE
AND PUTABLE BONDS
• The OAS is the constant spread that, when added to the one-period
forward rates in the binomial interest rate tree, will make the arbitrage-
free value of the risky bond equal to its market price.
• Like the calculation for the Z-spread, the calculation for the OAS is
done by an iterative calculation approach. However the OAS uses the
binomial tree with the value at each node adjusted for the option.
• Exhibit 12 on the following page shows the valuation of a risk-free
callable bond using benchmark forward rates. Note how the node
values have been adjusted for the call option.
• Exhibit 15 following that assumes the bond is risky, sets the market
price to $101.000 and then iteratively calculates the OAS that would
have to be added to every one-year forward rate to produce that
market price. The OAS value determined is 28.55 bps.
• The OAS includes default risk and liquidity risk, but does NOT include
option risk, unlike the Z-spread which includes all three.
37
VALUATION OF RISKY CALLABLE
AND PUTABLE BONDS
38
VALUATION OF RISKY CALLABLE
AND PUTABLE BONDS
39
VALUATION OF RISKY CALLABLE
AND PUTABLE BONDS
Valuing RISKY callable and putable bonds using the
binomial tree method.
1. Generate the risk-free binomial tree using the benchmark
implied forward rates as shown in Chapter 8.
2. Go through the tree and add the OAS to the interest rate in
every node in the tree. Now you have a binomial tree calibrated
to value risky bonds.
3. Use the backward induction method, starting at the rightmost
nodes of the tree, to evaluate leftward through the tree to
determine V0.
- For a Callable bond, set every node with V>100 to V=100
- For a Putable bond, set every node with V<100 to V=100
40
VALUATION OF RISKY CALLABLE
AND PUTABLE BONDS
OAS can be used as a measure of the value of the bond
relative to a benchmark.
• If the OAS is lower than the OAS for a bond with similar
characteristics and credit quality, the bond is overpriced and
should be avoided.
• If the OAS is higher than the OAS for a bond with similar
characteristics and credit quality, the bond is underpriced and is
desirable.
• If the OAS is similar to the OAS for a bond with similar
characteristics and credit quality, the bond is fairly priced.
41
VALUATION OF RISKY CALLABLE
AND PUTABLE BONDS
The dispersion of interest rates on the tree is volatility
dependent, and so is the OAS.
As interest rate
volatility
increases,
42
VALUATION OF RISKY CALLABLE
AND PUTABLE BONDS
43
4. INTEREST RATE RISK OF BONDS WITH
EMBEDDED OPTIONS
• The duration of a bond measures the sensitivity of the
bond’s full price to changes in the bond’s yield to maturity
(yield duration) or to changes in benchmark interest rates
(curve duration).
• For bonds with embedded options, the only appropriate
duration measure is the curve duration measure known as
effective (or
Effective option-adjusted)
duration duration.
indicates the sensitivity of the bond’s price to
a 100 bps parallel shift of the benchmark yield curve assuming
no change in the bond’s credit spread.
44
CALCULATING A BOND’S EFFECTIVE DURATION
IN PRACTICE
In practice, the estimation procedure is usually as follows:
Shift the
benchmark Shift the
yield curve benchmark
Given a
down, yield curve up
price (PV0), generate a by the same
calculate new magnitude,
the implied interest rate generate a Calculate
OAS to the tree, and new interest the bond’s
benchmark then rate tree, and effective
yield curve revalue the then revalue duration.
at an bond using the bond
appropriate the OAS using the OAS
interest rate calculated calculated in
volatility in Step 1. Step 1. This
This value value is PV+.
is PV–.
45
OAS = 28.55 bps
PV0 = 101.000
46
∆Curve = -30 bps
PV- = 101.599
47
∆Curve = +30 bps
PV+ = 100.407
48
CALCULATING A BOND’S EFFECTIVE DURATION
IN PRACTICE
= = 1.97
49
INTEREST RATE RISK OF BONDS WITH
EMBEDDED OPTIONS
The effective duration of a callable bond cannot exceed that of the
straight bond.
When interest rates are high relative to the bond’s
coupon, the callable and straight bonds have similar
effective durations. (call option is "out of the money")
When interest rates fall, the effective duration of the
callable bond is lower than that of the straight bond.
50
INTEREST RATE RISK OF BONDS WITH
EMBEDDED OPTIONS
Type of Bond Effective Duration
Cash = zero
Zero-coupon bond = maturity
Fixed-rate bond < maturity
Callable bond ≤ duration of straight bond
as interest rates fall (bond price rises), call option moves
into the money and the bond is more likely to be called.
Effective duration falls.
Putable bond ≤ duration of straight bond
as interest rates rise (bond price falls), put option moves into
the money and the bond is more likely to be put. Effective
duration falls.
Floater (Libor flat) ≈ time (in years) to next reset
51
ONE-SIDED DURATION
AND KEY RATE DURATION
52
EFFECTIVE CONVEXITY
Effective convexity is calculated for callable, putable bonds
similar to the straight bond.
• When interest rates are high, the callable and straight bond
experience very similar positive convexity.
53
EFFECTIVE CONVEXITY
54
EFFECTIVE CONVEXITY
55
6. VALUATION AND ANALYSIS OF CONVERTIBLE
BONDS
A convertible bond is a hybrid security that presents the
characteristics of an option-free bond and an embedded
conversion option.
56
CONVERSION VALUE
• The conversion value or parity value of a convertible
bond indicates the value of the bond if it is converted at the
market price of the shares.
58
MARKET CONVERSION PRICE AND PREMIUM
EXAMPLE: Assume a convertible bond has a PAR value of $1000, a conversion
ratio of 20 and a current market price of 101.250 percent of PAR. Assume the
price of a share of the firm’s stock is currently $49.950.
a) What is the conversion value of the bond?
Conversion value = Share price x Conversion ratio = $49.950x20 = $999.000
b) What is the straight value of the bond?
It is quoted by the market as 101.250 percent of PAR = $1012.500
c) What is the minimum (or floor) value of the convertible bond?
It is the higher of the conversion value and the straight value, or $1012.500 The
investor would not sell the bond for less than this.
d) What is the market conversion price per share?
= $1012.50/20 = $50.625
59
MARKET CONVERSION PRICE AND PREMIUM
EXAMPLE (continued): Assume a convertible bond has a PAR value of $1000,
a conversion ratio of 20 and a current market price of 101.250 percent of PAR.
Assume the price of a share of the firm’s stock is currently $49.950.
e) What is the market conversion premium per share?
Market conversion premium per share = Market conversion price – Underlying
share price = $50.625 - $49.950 = $0.675
f) What is the market conversion premium ratio?
= $0.675/$49.950 = -1.351%
Should the investor convert the bond to stock? If she did so today, she would be
converting a bond worth $1012.500 as a bond into $999.000 worth of stock. Not a good
deal unless she expected the stock to experience a large increase in price quickly. When
the market price of the stock exceeds the conversion price of $50.625, the bond becomes
worth more as stock than as a bond. If the investor believes that the stock price will persist
at the new higher value, she may convert the bond to stock at that time.
60
DOWNSIDE RISK AND UPSIDE POTENTIAL
OF CONVERTIBLE BONDS
• Many investors use the straight value as a measure of
the downside risk of a convertible bond and calculate
the following metric:
61
VALUATION OF A CONVERTIBLE BOND
The most commonly used model to value convertible bonds
is the arbitrage-free framework.
Value of convertible
= stock
Value of straight
Value of call option
on the issuer’s
bond bond
stock
Value of
Value of Value of Value of
Value of call option
callable putable issuer investor
straight on the
convertible call put
bond issuer’s
bond option option
stock
62
RISK–RETURN CHARACERISTICS OF A CONVERTIBLE
BOND, A STRAIGHT BOND, AND THE UNDERLYING
STOCK
.
When the underlying In contrast, when
share price is well the underlying
below the conversion share price is above
price, the convertible the conversion
bond is described as price, a convertible
“busted convertible” bond exhibits
and exhibits mostly mostly stock risk–
bond risk–return return
characteristics. characteristics.
.
63
7. BOND ANALYTICS
• Some market participants, in particular financial institutions,
develop bond analysis system in-house.
• How can a practitioner tell if such a system is adequate?
- The system should be able to report the correct cash flows, discount
rates, and present value of the cash flows. The discount rates can be
verified by hand or on a spreadsheet.
- Even if it is difficult to verify that a result is correct, it may be possible
to establish that it is wrong by doing the following checks:
Check that the put–call parity holds.
Check that the value of the underlying option-free bond does not
depend on interest rate volatility.
Check that the volatility term structure slopes downward.
64
SUMMARY
Fixed-income securities with embedded options
• An embedded option represents a right that can be
exercised by the issuer, by the bondholder, or automatically
depending on the course of interest rates.
• Simple embedded option structures include call options, put
options, and extension options.
• Complex embedded option structures include bonds with
other types of options or combinations of options, including a
conversion option, an estate put, or an acceleration
provision for a sinking fund.
65
SUMMARY
Relationships between the values of a callable or putable bond,
the underlying option-free bond, and the embedded option
66
SUMMARY
Interest rate volatility and value of a callable/putable bond
• Interest rate volatility is modeled using a binomial interest
rate tree. The higher the volatility, the lower the value of the
callable bond and the higher the value of the putable bond.
• Changes in the level and shape of the yield curve affect the
values of bonds with embedded options.
67
SUMMARY
Option-adjusted spreads
68
SUMMARY
One-sided and key rate durations
• Because the prices of callable and putable bonds respond
asymmetrically to upward and downward interest rate
changes of the same magnitude, one-sided durations
provide a better indication regarding the interest rate
sensitivity of bonds with embedded options than (two-sided)
effective duration.
• Key rate durations show the effect of shifting only key points,
one at a time, rather than the entire yield curve.
Effective convexities of callable, putable, and straight bonds
• When the option is near the money, the convexity of a
callable bond is negative, indicating that the up side for a
callable bond is much smaller than the down side, whereas
the convexity of a putable bond is positive, indicating that the
up side for a putable bond is much larger than the downside.
69
SUMMARY
Capped or floored floating-rate bond
70
SUMMARY
Valuation of a convertible bond
71
8. SUMMARY
72