Pakistan & regional

apparatus
.
 CARs Pak
Afghn In the middle of
changing
Russia China Geopolitical
Environment

Pak
Iran India

Yemen
USA
 Pakistan
China

CARs

Iran

Taliban
Contribution
Pakistan
Two international economic corridors linking South Asia and East and South-
East Asia are to be established: the Bangladesh-China-India-
Myanmar (BCIM) Economic Corridor and the China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor. Countries involved in the two initiatives have drawn
up specific timetables for implementation. For the BCIM Economic Corridor,
for example, the four countries have agreed to build transport, energy and
telecommunication networks connecting
each other.24
The two initiatives will help enhance connectivity between Asian subregions
and foster regional economic cooperation. In particular, these initiatives will
facilitate international investment, enhancing FDI flows between participating
countries and benefiting low-income countries in South Asia. Significant
investment in infrastructure, particularly
for land transportation, is expected to take place along these corridors,
strengthening the connectedness of the three subregions. In addition,
industrial zones will be built along these corridors, leading to rising investment
in manufacturing in the countries involved. This is likely to help South Asian
countries benefit from the production relocation that is under way in China.
 Pakistan geologically connects South Asia
Middle East and Central Asia. Boundaries Global situation
Internal
situation

Size

Population

Resources

Economy

Geography
Neighborhood
.
1. Changing role of India & Pak
5th largest economy
Needs energy
Regional connectivity- Dependence on Pak
Indian air-line using Pakistan space
• India- Afghn
(APTTA)

• India- CARs

• TAPI

• IPI
2. Changing role of
Afghan & Pak
• Afghn- India
3. CARs
• APTTA • Significance of cars
• Gawadar
• Gawadar
 4. Changing role of
China & Pak
• 2nd largest economy

• 60% dependence on gulf oil

• CPEC

• Linking Western part with

Gawadar
After China’s take over of Gawader,
India revisits its strategy in
Chahbahar.
A new power games ensues after
US withdrawal.
.
6. Changing role of Iran & Pak

May 2016- Iran, India & Afghanistan sign

Chabahar port transit accord.
India to invest $500 Mn. Ready to invest $20
Bn.
North- south corridor. Regional connectivity.
India counters China….
May 2016
New Delhi’s recent missile tests it carried out near the Bay of
Bengal are alarming in the sense that there is a strong threat of
the Indian Ocean becoming a nuclearised region. Indian armed
forces have also designed schemes to expand the umbrella of
nuclear arsenal in the form of submarines that can fire
Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBM) and
Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM)

indigenously built surface-to-surface Inter-Continental range

Ballistic Missile (ICBM) Agni-5 (China killer) would be
conducted after the PM returns from the foreign visit.

Chinese-Pakistani military cooperation is responsible

for India's bid ...
Agni 6 (Agni VI) Why would India
want to develop a 10,000 km Range
ICBM
5. Changing role of
Russia & Pak
.
6. Changing role of Iran & Pak

May 2016- Iran, India & Afghanistan sign

Chabahar port transit accord.
India to invest $500 Mn. Ready to invest $20
Bn.
North- south corridor. Regional connectivity.
India counters China….
.
7. Middle East & Pak
.
8. US & Pak (post 2014)
US- India logistic
agreement
No exit from it….. Aug- 16
Countries Positive Negative
Pak

East- West
China
Iran Gawader & CPEC
Gas pipeline Chah-bahar
North-south
India
Afghan Kashmir, CBT, Agni-5
CARS APTTA TAPI
Russia QLTs CASA Indian influence in Afghn
US – Pak
US- India SCO
US- Afghn
Pak-US distrust continues Trilateral agreement
Logistic agreement
Challenges
 Evolving regional dynamics
 A stronger Pakistan is emerging, and now it can take stock of regional dynamics from a position of
enhanced confidence.
 China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
 upward trajectory in Pakistan-Russia relation
 Yemen crisis is likely to pay off in the long term, while a dip in relations with Saudi Arabia and the
UAE is likely to be temporary. Afghanistan’s well thought out foreign policy shift towards Pakistan
has brought respite in cross border attacks. If the P5+1 and Iran seal the nuclear deal, then Iran-
Pakistan gas pipeline project would become a reality. China has already offered to construct this
pipeline and has committed to sell eight submarines to Pakistan as well. Economist has released a
very promising report about Pakistan’s economy, indicating a growth rate of 4.7 percent. Negative
media projection of Pakistan at international level is on the decline.. s
 Now Pakistan’s sensitivities about Afghanistan are better understood in the US strategic calculus.
America has reconciled with the possibility that it could be replaced in Afghanistan by China with
the help of Pakistan. China already has a considerable economic presence in Afghanistan. It will now
concentrate on energy-rich Iran that shall emerge much stronger after its nuclear deal and in the
backdrop of the recent events in the Middle East and North African Region. Russia, with its growing
understanding with China is emerging as an important regional player looking up to revive its stalled
S3000 missile deal with Iran. It the UN sanctions are lifted Russia shall deliver Advanced S3000
Missiles Defence System to Iran. China has also just agreed to build nuclear power plants for Iran.
 India is not likely to reconcile with its relatively lower profile in Afghanistan, even if it has to take-on
a spoiler’s role. Hence, India may take the trajectories like: coax Iran and paly repeat role of 1980s and
90s for destabilizing central government by provoking ethnic minorities especially Uzbeks and Tajiks;
support Iran in playing its sectarian card; go solo and reactivate Dostum card; crate fissures between
Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah. India is likely to follow a composite strategy drawing from all
these options.
 Afghanistan: a hub of regional geo-politics compulsions and

.
…
INTERNATIONAL GEO-STRATEGIC APPARATUS

 5 reasons Pakistan won't change its Afghan policy - Pakistan

Defence
 The first step is to acknowledge that Pakistan will not change its
Afghan ... militaryapparatus has managed to keep Pakistan's state
from collapsing on .... Pakistan'spower at regional level is significant
and the Afghan state ...
 Afghanistan a flash-point of regional and international power
politics. New chess-board has been staged in and around Afghanistan.
New guidelines, reformation of foreign policies and the last not the
least, strategic rethinking has been reshaped and remerged among the
power brokers and main stakeholders. Hectic efforts show that time is
short and interests are too big to handle with ease.
.
When Saudi Arabia expects Pakistani soldiers to fight in
Yemen, it invokes religion and money to have its way.
When Chinese President Xi Jinping visits Pakistan,
official propagandists go into overdrive to highlight the
economic and strategic imperatives that bind together
Islamabad and Beijing. When we speak of our other
neighbours – India, Afghanistan and sometimes Iran –
we mostly do so with hostile undertones. And then there
is the United States, which looms large over everything
that happens in Pakistan. What should drive our
relations with these countries and the rest of the world?
 A recent conference in Delhi deliberated on the issues bedeviling

. trade relations between India and Pakistan. Currently,

Pakistan’s yearly exports to India are a mere $0.6bn and India’s to
Pakistan are about $2bn. Guesstimates of illegal trade via third
countries like the UAE are in the range of about $2bn. Everyone
agreed that a target of $10bn is easily achievable if Pakistan gives
MFN status to India – a win-win situation for both countries that
have long been prisoners of the zero-sum philosophy in which the
gain of one is the loss of the other and therefore unacceptable to the
“loser”. Why hasn’t this happened so far?
 For a long time, Pakistan’s position was that the “core” Kashmir
issue should be resolved and trust built mutually before normal
trade relations could be restored. But the 1999 Lahore summit
between Prime Ministers Nawaz Sharif and Vajpayee resolved to
stop putting “core” preconditions to conflict resolution and start a
composite dialogue to address all outstanding issues
simultaneously.
.
Matters were frozen until Nawaz Sharif returned to
power in 2013 and decided to de-link trade from
politics and propose a wide ranging Non-
Discriminatory Access (MFN) regime which India has
long demanded as the starting point of conflict
resolution (it’s win-win for both countries but India
wins more than Pakistan because it is expected to run
up a significant trade surplus with liberalisation
Pak- The peace maker
Pakistan refuses to send forces in Yemen but ensures
Saudi-an integrity
Gulf countries threaten Pak.
Pak, part of 34- countries “alliance”
Pak mediates between Iran & Saudia(Jan 2016)

Qatar pipe-line
&
10,000 jobs for Pak
.
Heart of Asia conference, Islamabad (Dec 2015)
Pakistan and India agreed to re-engage in their
dialogue to normalize relations despite Pathankot
incidence
Both sides refrained to avoid hawkish attitude
Pak constituted Inquiry committee
Pak ready to give Non discriminatory market access to
India
.
Afghanistan initiative
Security agreement/ Terrorism cooperation
mechanism
Pak endeavors to put life into Afghanistan by
including Taliban in talks- Quadrilateral talks
Taliban ll also be included
(Sartaj Aziz, Feb 16)

Doha talks

Murree talks
.
Ground breaking ceremony of TAPI
.
CPEC
China, part of quadrilateral talks
.
The nuclear talks’ success could also have a positive
bearing on Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline.
.
Normalization of talks with Russia

SCO-

ECO plus improved ties with Turkey

Impediments & Regional Developments
.
.
Kashmir & cross border terrorism
.
For Pakistan, faced with its own multiple economic
and homegrown extremism challenges, yet another
Afghan refugee influx and spread of militant fighting
across the Durand Line would be a horrible specter.
Threats from internal Taliban- schools closed
Pak takes strong action-JeM yet its not sufficient
NAP not delivering
.
Afghanistan dilemma- Bacha khan university attack
(Jan 2016)
Fazalluah controversy

 In view of persisting TTP insurgency in the tribal areas

and the two-way impact of militancy in the border
regions, sensitivities on the issue of Pashtun
populations and impact of foreign interference in
Afghanistan are likely to be among major considerations
in Pakistan’s quest for stability on its 2,640 km-long
porous border.
.
the TTP’s choice of Mullah Fazalullah, operating out
of Afghanistan, as its new chief after the killing of
Hakimullah Mehsud in a drone strike, has given rise to
new regional complications

 Many experts say by allowing Fazalullah to engage in

anti-Pakistani activities from the Afghan soil, Kabul is
using a tit-for-tat approach in reaction to the Afghan
Taliban’s hideouts in Pakistan.
.
Afghan govt unable to control….

The political process flounders.

 Afghanistan sliding to deeper civil war.
 Bordering countries and India – which has developed close
economic and security ties with Kabul – would jockey for power
with a new round of hedging games and use of proxies.
Over the years, Tehran has advanced its interests by reinforcing
traditional ties in Afghanistan. In the north of Afghanistan,
Central Asian states, fearing spillover of the civil strife, armed
conflict and drug-trafficking, are also edgy, and some have
already reinforced their border security after US withdrawal.
.
Chabahar port, most notably by Afghanistan and
India, a development that would have far-reaching
regional ramifications.
.
 Both Islamabad and Washington have high stakes in working
together to stave off the cataclysmic scenario, in which
Afghanistan becomes a haven for militants and international
terrorists like al Qaeda, and then falls into an abyss with the
Pashtuns dominating the South and East of the country and
Hazaras, Tajiks and Uzbeks in the North replaying their old
rivalries.

 In this context, experts say the most crucial factor for

Afghanistan’s future would be the state of Pak-US relations.
Pakistan, which has suffered grievously at the hands of terrorists
since 9/11, wants its sensitivities vis-à-vis Afghanistan addressed.
.
 When the US-Pakistan relations are entering a crucial phase
with respect to pushing the Afghan stability effort, a resolution
to the drone dispute would help their ties greatly.

 In fact, the Afghan opportunity presents many prospects for

advancing Pakistan-US trust-building efforts. The situation
calls for Washington’s greater sensitivity in addressing
Pakistani concerns regarding Indian role on its western border,
especially in the wake of recent skirmishes across the LoC. On
the other hand, it demands that Islamabad step up its help for
Afghan security and a peaceful US exit via its overland routes.
Suggestions
Normalize ties with neighbors

Improve law & order

Prioritize economics

Set internal house in order

Conclusion
Hard alliances are no longer options for Pakistan
Pak should look for soft options with the neighbors.
Regional connectivity
Pakistan- a pivot
Benefits linked to our Stability