6 Month Progress

Report
M.Sc. Student
Report period
November 2023
to
May 2024

Department
of
Land & Water Conservation Engineering
 Student's Particulars
Name: Muhammad Asif
Supervisory Committee
Supervisor: Engr. Dr. Muhammad Naveed Anjum
Member: Engr. Dr.
Muhammad Usman
Member: Dr. Shahid Mahmood
Research Title
Impact of Climate change on precipitation;
Implication for water security
Objectives as in synopsis

1. To assess historical changes of monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation in

different elevation zones in the northern highlands of Pakistan

2. To downscale the data of selected General Circulation Models (GCMs) under

different future scenarios for different zones of NHP

3. Project the future changes in precipitation at multiple time scale under

different climate change scenarios

 Research Progress
Methodology
Five GCM selected data, their data downloaded and downscaled

Downscaling refers to the process of deriving finer-scale (higher-resolution)

information from coarser-scale (lower-resolution) data or models

By using change factor method downscaling is done. The change factor method is

often preferred for its simplicity and computational efficiency.

Trend Analysis

The modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test used for trend analysis this shows a

slightly decreasing trend for historical precipitation at annual scale

 Historical changes of monthly, seasonal and annual
precipitation in the study area

The analysis examined historical precipitation patterns over the baseline period

(1985-2014) at monthly seasonal and annual temporal scale. In the month of July

and august more rainfall occurs. the average precipitation demonstrated a

decreasing trend annually., while there was a slight increase observed during the

summer season throughout the baseline period. However, it's worth mentioning that

the decline in average precipitation was not statistically significant at the 95%

confidence level.
Zone wise Historical precipitation changes
The study area has been divided into 5 zones based on elevation.
Stations located at an elevation of 500m are in zone 1, those between 500 and 1000

meters are in zone 2, between 1000 and 1500 meters are in zone 3, between 1500

and 2000 meters are in zone 4, and those above 2000 meters are in zone 5.

In Zone 2 more precipitation happens throughout the last three decades, while in all

zones most of the precipitation occurs in the month of July august.

1450
1350 Z= -0.464
Q= -1.633
1250
1150
Precepitation (mm)

1050
950
850
750
650
550
450
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Historical Annual average precipitation

 1400 300
Z1 Z2 Z3 Z4 Z5
1200 250

Precipitation mm (mm)
1000
200

Precipitation (mm)
800
150
600
100
400

200 50

0 0
Z1 Z2 Z3 Z4 Z5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Zonal Annual average precipitation Zonal monthly average precipitation

Monthly Areal Average

800
160.0 750 Z= 0.143
140.0 700 Q= 0.363
650
Precipitation (mm)

120.0

Precepitation (mm)
600
100.0 550
80.0
500
450
60.0 400
40.0 350
300
20.0
250
0.0 200
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Historical Monthly average precipitation Historical summer season average precipitation

Projected changes in Precipitation

Relative changes in the projected precipitation compared to base line period

suggest that precipitation will decrease under all SSPs

Except winter season where SSP2-4.5 suggest an increase amount of precipitation

And in autumn season SSP5-8.5 indicate an increase in precipitation

20
SSP245 SSP585
15

10
Precipitation Change (%)

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25
Annual Winter Spring Summer Autumn
Summary of Research Work Completed (Uptodate)

 Historical changes in monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation over the period
1985 to 2014 in northern highlands of Pakistan
 Downscaling of the GCM data under two future scenarios for deferent zones
 Future projection of annual and seasonal precipitation changes for the period 2021
to 2050 under two (SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) future scenarios at spatial an temporal
scale
 Zone wise monthly and annual historical precipitation changes
 Zone wise future projection under two future scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5