Contemporary Challenges in Diplomacy

Dr Samina Khan (PhD I.R)

 Cybersecurity and Diplomacy in the Age of
AI
• Objective:
• To understand the impact of cybersecurity threats and the rise of
artificial intelligence (AI) on international relations and diplomatic
strategies.
1. Introduction to Cybersecurity in Diplomacy

• 1.1 Definition and Importance

• Cybersecurity: The practice of protecting systems, networks, and programs from
digital attacks. These cyberattacks are usually aimed at accessing, changing, or
destroying sensitive information, extorting money from users, or interrupting normal
business processes.
• Importance in Diplomacy: In the diplomatic sphere, cybersecurity is decisive
because cyber threats can undermine national security, economic stability, and public
safety. Diplomats must negotiate agreements to enhance global cybersecurity and
protect against international cyber threats.
• Examples: organizations worldwide, highlighting the need for international
cooperation in cybersecurity.
• The Stuxnet virus attack on Iran's nuclear facilities demonstrated how cyberattacks
can impact national security and international relations.
• WannaCry ransomware attack affected
1.2 Historical Context
• Early Cybersecurity Efforts: Initially focused on protecting military and government
systems.
• Evolution: With the rise of the internet and digital technology, cybersecurity expanded
to include protection for civilian infrastructure, businesses, and personal data.
• Milestones:
• 2007 Estonia cyberattacks, believed to be perpetrated by Russian hackers, targeted
government, financial, and media websites.
• The 2010 Stuxnet worm, allegedly a joint U.S.-Israel cyberweapon, targeted Iran's
nuclear centrifuges.
• References:
• Rid, T. (2013). Cyber War Will Not Take Place. Oxford University Press.
• Clarke, R. A., & Knake, R. K. (2012). Cyber War: The Next Threat to National
Security and What to Do About It. HarperCollins.
 2. AI and Cyber Threats
• 2.1 AI-Driven Cyber Attacks
• AI in Cybersecurity: AI technologies can enhance
both cyber defenses and cyber offenses.
• AI-Driven Attacks: Attackers use AI to automate
attacks, making them faster and harder to detect. AI
can also be used to develop sophisticated phishing
attacks, bypass security systems, and exploit
vulnerabilities in real-time.
 Examples
• AI-powered malware:
• Uses machine learning to adapt and avoid
detection.
• Automated phishing:
• AI can generate highly convincing phishing
emails by analyzing social media profiles and
other personal data.
 2.2 Deepfakes and Misinformation
• Deepfakes:
• AI-generated synthetic media where a person's likeness is
replaced with someone else's. Deepfakes can create fake
news, impersonate public figures, and manipulate public
opinion.
• Misinformation:
• AI can spread misinformation by generating and
disseminating false news articles, social media posts, and
other digital content.
 Examples:
• Deepfake videos:
• Fake videos of political figures saying or doing
things they never did, which can influence
elections and political stability.
• Misinformation campaigns:
• Automated bots spreading false information
during critical events like elections or pandemics .
 References:
• Chesney, R., & Citron, D. (2019). Deepfakes and the
New Disinformation War. Foreign Affairs.
• Taddeo, M., & Floridi, L. (2018). How AI can be a
force for good. Science, 361(6404), 751-752.
 3. International Cybersecurity Policies
• 3.1 National Cybersecurity Strategies
• Definition:
• Policies and plans developed by individual countries to
protect their national cyber infrastructure and respond to
cyber threats.
• Components:
• Often include legal frameworks, incident response plans,
public-private partnerships, and investments in
cybersecurity technology and education.
 Examples:
• U.S. National Cyber Strategy:
• Focuses on protecting the American people,
homeland, and way of life; promoting American
prosperity; preserving peace through strength;
and enhancing American influence.
• EU Cybersecurity Strategy:
• Aims to build resilience, reduce cybercrime, and
develop cyber defense capabilities.
3.2 International Treaties and Agreements
• Purpose: To foster international cooperation and establish
norms and rules for state behavior in cyberspace.
• Key Agreements:
• Budapest Convention: First international treaty seeking to
address internet and computer crime by harmonizing
national laws, improving investigative techniques, and
increasing cooperation among nations.
• United Nations Group of Governmental Experts (UN
GGE): Develops norms of responsible state behavior in
cyberspace.
 Examples:
• Budapest Convention on Cybercrime:
• Signed by over 60 countries, it provides a
framework for international cooperation in
combating cybercrime.
• Paris Call for Trust and Security in Cyberspace:
• A multistakeholder initiative to promote peace and
security online.
 References:
• Hathaway, M. E. (2012). Cybersecurity: Critical
Infrastructure Protection. Potomac Books, Inc.
• Shackelford, S. (2014). Managing Cyber Attacks in
International Law, Business, and Relations: In Search of
Cyber Peace. Cambridge University Press.
 4. Diplomatic Responses to AI and Cyber
Threats
• 4.1 Bilateral and Multilateral Negotiations
• Bilateral Diplomacy:
• Countries negotiate directly to address cybersecurity
threats, share intelligence, and develop joint defense
strategies.
• Multilateral Diplomacy:
• Involves multiple countries working together within
international organizations to develop global norms, share
best practices, and coordinate responses to cyber threats.
 Examples:
• U.S.-China Cyber Agreement (2015):
• Both countries agreed not to conduct or support cyber-
enabled theft of intellectual property.
• NATO’s Cyber Defense Pledge:
• NATO allies pledged to enhance their cyber defenses and
integrate cyber defense into NATO operations .
 4.2 The Role of International Organizations
• United Nations:
• Works on developing norms and policies for state behavior in
cyberspace.
• Interpol:
• Facilitates international cooperation among law enforcement
agencies to combat cybercrime.
• The European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA):
Supports EU member states in improving their cyber
resilience and response capabilities.
 Examples:
• United Nations Group of Governmental Experts
(UN GGE):
• Provides reports on the development of norms of
responsible state behavior in cyberspace.
• ENISA’s work on Cybersecurity Act:
• Strengthens EU's cybersecurity capabilities and
establishes a cybersecurity certification framework.
 References:
• Cornish, P. (2015). Cybersecurity and Cyberwar: What
Everyone Needs to Know. Oxford University Press .
•Klimburg, A. (2017).
•The Darkening Web:
• The War for Cyberspace. Penguin Press.
•Case Study:
• 2023 Microsoft Exchange Server Cyber
Attack
 4.1 Overview of the Incident
• Incident Description:
• In early 2023, a vulnerability in Microsoft Exchange
Server was exploited by state-sponsored hackers, leading
to widespread data breaches and compromised systems.
• Impact:
• Thousands of organizations worldwide, including
government agencies, businesses, and non-profits, were
affected by the attack, resulting in significant data loss
and operational disruptions.
 4.2 Diplomatic Repercussions
• International Condemnation:
• Several countries condemned the attack and
attributed it to a state-sponsored hacking group,
calling for accountability and international action.
• Cyber Retaliation:
• Some nations responded with cyber
countermeasures and sanctions against the
perpetrators.
4.3 Measures Taken by Affected Nations and
International Community
• National Responses:
• U.S:
• Implemented stricter cybersecurity measures, launched
investigations, and imposed sanctions on the identified
hackers.
• EU:
• Enhanced coordination among member states for incident
response and increased funding for cybersecurity initiatives.
 International Cooperation:
• Information Sharing:
• Countries shared intelligence on the attack methods and
vulnerabilities exploited.
• Joint Task Forces:
• Formation of international task forces to investigate and
mitigate the impact of the attack.
• Policy Developments: Renewed calls for international
agreements on cyber norms and sanctions for state-
sponsored cyber activities.
 References:
• Microsoft Security Response Center (MSRC).
(2023). Microsoft Exchange Server
Vulnerabilities Exploited in the Wild. Microsoft.
• Reuters. (2023). Global Impact of Microsoft
Exchange Server Cyberattack and Diplomatic
Responses. Reuters.
• Class 2: Climate Change and Environmental
Diplomacy

• Objective:
• To explore the role of diplomacy in addressing
global environmental challenges, with a focus on
climate change and recent international efforts.
Introduction to Environmental Diplomacy
• 1.1 Definition and Scope
• Environmental Diplomacy:
• The practice of negotiating and implementing international
agreements and policies to manage and protect the environment. It
involves cooperation among nations to address global
environmental issues such as climate change, biodiversity loss, and
pollution.
• Scope:
• Encompasses a wide range of activities, including treaty
negotiations, international collaborations, and the establishment of
global norms and standards for environmental protection.
 Examples:
• Montreal Protocol (1987):
• An international treaty designed to protect the ozone
layer by phasing out the production of numerous
substances responsible for ozone depletion.
• Convention on Biological Diversity (1992):
• A multilateral treaty with the goal of conserving
biological diversity, using biological resources
sustainably, and sharing the benefits of genetic
resources fairly.
 References:
• Najam, A., Papa, M., & Taiyab, N. (2006). Global
Environmental Governance: A Reform Agenda. International
Institute for Sustainable Development.
• Betsill, M. M., & Corell, E. (2008). NGO Diplomacy: The
Influence of Nongovernmental Organizations in International
Environmental Negotiations. MIT Press.
 1.2 Historical Background
• Early Efforts:
• Environmental diplomacy has roots in the
early 20th century, but significant efforts
began in the 1970s with growing awareness
of environmental degradation.
 Key Milestones:
• 1972 Stockholm Conference:
• The United Nations Conference on the Human Environment,
which led to the establishment of the United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP).
• 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro:
• Led to major treaties like the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the
Convention on Biological Diversity.
 References:
• Chasek, P. S., Downie, D. L., & Brown, J. W. (2016).
Global Environmental Politics. Routledge.
• Ivanova, M. (2007). Global Environmental
Governance: The Role of the United Nations. Yale
Center for Environmental Law & Policy.
 2. Climate Change: A Global Challenge
• 2.1 Scientific Consensus and Impacts
• Scientific Consensus:
• The overwhelming majority of climate scientists agree that
human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels and
deforestation, are the primary drivers of climate change.
• Impacts:
• Climate change results in rising global temperatures, melting
polar ice, sea-level rise, more frequent and severe weather
events, and disruptions to ecosystems and agriculture.
 Examples:
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Reports:
• Comprehensive assessments of climate science, impacts, and
potential solutions. The IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report
(2021) highlights the urgent need for action to limit global
warming.
• Global Temperature Records:
• Data from NASA and NOAA show a consistent rise in
global average temperatures over the past century.
 References:
• IPCC. (2021). Sixth Assessment Report.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
• National Aeronautics and Space Administration
(NASA). (2021). Global Temperature Data. NASA.
 2.2 Key Stakeholders
• Governments: National governments play a central role in setting policies
and negotiating international agreements.
• International Organizations: Entities like the United Nations, World
Bank, and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) facilitate
cooperation and provide scientific and financial support.
• Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs): Advocate for stronger
climate action, raise public awareness, and hold governments accountable.
• Private Sector: Companies can drive innovation in renewable energy and
sustainability practices and are increasingly engaging in climate action.
• Civil Society: Citizens and grassroots movements push for policy changes
and sustainable practices.
 Examples:

• Greta Thunberg and Fridays for Future: A global youth

movement advocating for stronger climate action.
• World Wildlife Fund (WWF): An NGO working on conservation
and environmental protection, including climate change
mitigation.
• References:
• Klein, N. (2014). This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. The
Climate. Simon & Schuster.
• Hulme, M. (2009). Why We Disagree About Climate Change:
Understanding Controversy, Inaction, and Opportunity.
Cambridge University Press.
 3. International Environmental Agreements
• 3.1 Kyoto Protocol
• Overview: Adopted in 1997 and entered into force
in 2005, the Kyoto Protocol was the first
international treaty to set legally binding emission
reduction targets for developed countries.
• Mechanisms: Included emissions trading, the
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and Joint
Implementation (JI).
 Examples:
• Emission Reduction Targets:
• Annex I countries (developed nations) agreed to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions by an average
of 5% below 1990 levels during the first
commitment period (2008-2012).
 References:
• Grubb, M., Vrolijk, C., & Brack, D. (1999). The
Kyoto Protocol: A Guide and Assessment.
Earthscan.
 3.2 Paris Agreement
• Overview:
• Adopted in 2015, the Paris Agreement aims to limit global
warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels,
with efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C.
• Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs):
• Each country submits its own targets and action plans for
reducing emissions and adapting to climate impacts.
 Examples:
• U.S. NDC (2021):
• Aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50-52%
below 2005 levels by 2030.
• References:
• Budinskys, D., Brunnée, J., & Rajamani, L. (2017).
International Climate Change Law. Oxford University
Press.
 3.3 COP26 and COP27 Outcomes
• COP26 (2021):
• Held in Glasgow, key outcomes included the Glasgow
Climate Pact, which called for accelerated action on climate
change, the phasing down of coal, and increased climate
finance for developing countries.
• COP27 (2022):
• Held in Sharm El-Sheikh, focused on implementing previous
commitments, adaptation measures, and financing
mechanisms, including the establishment of a loss and
damage fund for vulnerable countries.
 Examples:
• Glasgow Climate Pact:
• Encourages countries to revisit and strengthen their NDCs by
the end of 2022 to align with the 1.5°C goal.

• References:
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC). (2021). COP26 Glasgow Climate Pact. UNFCCC.
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC). (2022). COP27 Sharm El-Sheikh Implementation Plan.
UNFCCC.
 4. Diplomatic Strategies for Climate Action
• 4.1 Negotiation Processes
• Bilateral Negotiations: Countries negotiate directly with one another
to form alliances, share technology, and provide financial support for
climate initiatives.
• Multilateral Negotiations: Involve multiple countries negotiating
within international frameworks like the UNFCCC to reach consensus
on global climate policies.
• Examples:
• U.S.-China Joint Glasgow Declaration on Enhancing Climate
Action in the 2020s: An agreement to cooperate on policies and
measures to tackle the climate crisis, issued during COP26.
 References:
• Keohane, R. O., & Victor, D. G. (2016). Cooperation
and Discord in Global Climate Policy. Nature Climate
Change, 6(6), 570-575.
 4.2 Role of Non-State Actors
• NGOs:
• Influence policy through advocacy, research, and participation in
international negotiations. They often represent civil society interests
and hold governments accountable.
• Businesses:
• Implement sustainable practices, invest in renewable energy, and
develop green technologies. Corporate commitments to reduce
emissions can drive significant change.
• Academia and Think Tanks:
• Provide scientific research and policy analysis to inform decision-
making and public debate.
 Examples:
• Climate Action Network (CAN):
• A worldwide network of over 1,500 NGOs working to
promote government and individual action to limit human-
induced climate change to ecologically sustainable levels.
• Renewable Energy 100 (RE100):
• A global initiative bringing together the world's most
influential businesses committed to 100% renewable
electricity.
 References:
• Betsill, M. M., & Corell, E. (2008). NGO Diplomacy:
The Influence of Nongovernmental Organizations in
International Environmental Negotiations. MIT Press.
• Falkner, R. (2016). Business Power and Conflict in
International Environmental Politics. Palgrave
Macmillan.
 Case Study: The 2023-2024 UN Climate
Change Conference (COP28)
• 4.1 Key Provisions and Outcomes
• Key Provisions: Focus on strengthening national commitments to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions, enhancing climate adaptation
measures, and increasing financial support for developing countries.
• Outcomes:
• Agreement on a global carbon market mechanism to reduce
emissions efficiently.
• Enhanced commitments to phase out fossil fuel subsidies and
accelerate the transition to renewable energy.
• Establishment of a loss and damage fund to support vulnerable
countries affected by climate impacts.
 Examples:
• Global Carbon Market Mechanism: Allows countries to trade carbon credits,
promoting cost-effective emission reductions and encouraging investment in green
projects.
• 4.2 Challenges in Negotiation
• Divergent Interests: Developing countries often prioritize adaptation and financial
support, while developed countries focus on mitigation and emissions reduction.
• Financial Commitments: Ensuring that pledged funds for climate finance are
delivered and utilized effectively remains a significant challenge.
• Implementation and Compliance: Ensuring that countries follow through on their
commitments and establishing mechanisms to monitor and enforce compliance.
• Examples:
• Loss and Damage Fund: Faced challenges in securing sufficient financial
contributions and agreeing on the criteria for fund distribution.
 4.3 Impact on Global Climate Policy
• Policy Advancements: COP28 outcomes are expected to accelerate
global efforts to combat climate change by strengthening national
policies and promoting international cooperation.
• Long-Term Goals: The conference's agreements will influence future
negotiations and shape the trajectory of global climate policy towards
achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century.
• References:
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC). (2023). COP28 Key Outcomes. UNFCCC.
• Earth Negotiations Bulletin (ENB). (2024). Summary of the 2023-2024
UN Climate Change Conference (COP28). International Institute for
Sustainable Development (IISD).