INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICAL

INFERENCE:

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL

Provide plausible range of

values
AGENDA
TOPICS COVERED

Topic 1 Topic 2

Common Sampling
probability distribution
distribution
OBJECTIVES

1. Distinguish between discrete and random

variables and continuous random variables.

2. Determine the sampling distribution for the

sample proportion, sample mean, sample
difference between two sample means, and
sample proportion. Proceed
COMMON PROBABILITY

DISTRIBUTION
 WHAT IS IT?
LET'S A probability distribution specifies the
probabilities of the possible outcomes of a random
EXPLORE variable.

Probability distributions are crucial mathematical

concepts in real-life applications like weather
prediction, stock market, and machine learning.

Understanding probability theory and the most

common distribution is essential for data science.
 DISTRIBUTION
PROBABILITY OF
DISCRETE VARIABLES

Random variables that can take a countable

number of distinct values (like the possible
outcomes of rolling dice).
Discrete distributions thus represent data
with a countable number of outcomes, meaning
that the potential outcomes can be put into a list
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 BERNOULLI
DISTRIBUTION
Bernoulli Distribution is the discrete
probability distribution and has exactly only two
possible outcomes, 1(Success) and 0(Failure), in
a single trial.

Example :

Toss a Coin leads one time to determine win

or lose. There is no intermediate result. The
occurrence of a head denotes success, and the
occurrence of a tail denotes failure.
 BINOMIAL
DISTRIBUTION
The Binomial Distribution is a type of discrete
distribution. In this distribution we have n independent and
identical Bernoulli trials.

This means that each trial does not influence other trials,
they each have the same probability of success, and each
trials has exactly two outcomes (success or failure). We then
measure the number of successes over these n trials.

Example :

A pop quiz with 10 true or false question. Binomial

distribution can give us the number of times we expect to get
a specific outcome.
 GEOMETRIC
DISTRIBUTION
Geometric distribution describes
procedures with a variable number of
independent Bernoulli trials until the first
“success” trial occurs. Therefore, it has a
single parameter p, which is the “success”
probability parameter of the underlying
Bernoulli distribution.
 POISSON
DISTRIBUTION
It is the discrete probability distribution of the
number of times an event is likely to occur within a
specified period of time. It is used for independent
events which occur at a constant rate within a given
interval of time.

Example :

One day, in a certain class, students usually asks 4

questions. But yesterday, they asks 7 questions. The
teacher wonder how likely it was they will ask exactly
7 question?
 DISTRIBUTION
PROBABILITY OF
CONTINUOUS VARIABLES

Random variables that can take an

infinite number of values in an interval
(such as the temperature of Tokyo on
any August day).

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 EXPONENTIAL
DISTRIBUTION
Exponential distribution is
used to model the time elapsed
before a given event occurs. It
describes the time between
events in a Poisson process, i.e.,
the process in which events
occur continuously and
independently at a constant
average rate.
This distribution is frequently
used to provide probabilistic
answers to questions
concerning, for example, the
time associated with receiving
a defective part on an assembly
line, the time elapsed before an
earthquake occurs in a given
region, or the waiting time
before a new customer enters a
shop.
 NORMAL
DISTRIBUTION
Normal distribution, also
known as Gaussian distribution,
is a type of continuous
probability distribution often
used to approximate many real-
world phenomena such as height,
weight, test scores, and so on.
In a normal probability
distribution, most of the
observations cluster around the
central peak, whereas values
further away from the mean
taper away symmetrically on
both sides and are less likely to
occur.
 BETA
DISTRIBUTION
Beta distribution models random
variables with values falling inside a finite
interval. The standard beta distribution
usually uses the interval [0, 1] –other
intervals are also possible– parameterized
by two shape parameters, denoted by alpha
(α) and beta (β), that appear as exponents
of the random variable and control the
shape of the distribution. These two
parameters must be positive.
 GAMMA
DISTRIBUTION
The gamma distribution is a two-
parameter family of continuous probability
distributions. It can be thought of as
describing the waiting time until a certain
number of events occur in a Poisson
process with a given average rate.
SAMPLING
DISTRIBUTION

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WHAT IS IT? A sampling distribution is a

probability distribution of a statistic
that is obtained through repeated
sampling of a specific population.

It describes a range of possible

outcomes for a statistic, such as the
mean or mode of some variable, of a
population.

The majority of data analyzed by

researchers are actually samples, not
populations.
HOW
SAMPLING
DISTRIBUTION WORKS?
Data allows statisticians, researchers,
marketers, analysts, and academics to
make important conclusions about
specific topics and information. It can
help businesses make decisions about
their future and boost their performance,
or it can help governments plan for
services needed by a group of people.
Sampling distributions (or the distribution of
This distribution depends on different factors, including the
data) are statistical metrics that determine
sample size, the sampling process involved, and the
whether an event or certain outcome will take
place.
population as a whole. There are a few steps involved with
sampling distribution. These include:
1. Choosing a random sample from the 2. Determine a certain statistic from that
overall population group, which could be the standard
deviation, median, or mean
3. Establishing a frequency distribution of
4.Mapping out the distribution on a graph
each sample
 TYPES OF SAMPLING
DISTRIBUTION
Sampling
distribution of
Proportion
EXAMPLE:
This sampling distribution focuses on 1. Politics: Researchers might survey 500
individuals in a certain city to understand what
proportions in a population. You select
proportion of residents support a certain candidate
samples and calculate their proportions.
in an upcoming election.
The means of the sample proportions
2. Biology: Biologists may collect data on 100 sea
from each group represent the proportion turtles to understand what proportion of them have
of the entire population. It is used to experienced damage from pollution.
understand the proportion of observations 3.Sports: A journalist may survey 1,000 college
in a sample that have a certain basketball players to understand what proportion of
characteristic. them shoot left-handed.
Formula:

77%
 TYPES OF SAMPLING
DISTRIBUTION
Sampling
distribution of
Mean
EXAMPLE:
The most common type of sampling 1. Demographics: Economists may collect data on
distribution is the mean. It focuses on 5,000 households in a certain city to estimate the
calculating the mean of every sample average annual household income.
group chosen from the population and 2. Botany: A botanist may take measurements on 50
plotting the data points. The graph shows plants from the same species to estimate the
a normal distribution where the center is average height of the plant in inches.
3. Nutrition: A nutritionist may survey 100 people
the mean of the sampling distribution,
at a hospital to estimate the average number of
which represents the mean of the entire
calories that residents eat per day.
population.
Formula:

77%
 TYPES OF SAMPLING
DISTRIBUTION
T-distribution

A T-distribution is a sampling In statistics, the t-distribution is most often used to:

distribution that involves a small
population or one where you don't know
much about it. It is used to estimate the
mean of the population and other
statistics such as confidence intervals,
statistical differences and linear
regression. It is also known as Student’s
t-distribution.
Find the critical values for a confidence interval
when the data is approximately normally
distributed.
Find the corresponding p-value from a statistical
test that uses the t-distribution (t-tests, regression
analysis).
77%
NOTE;

Depending on the question of interest, it

might make more sense to use the
sample proportion or the sample mean to
answer the question.

Using the Sample Proportion & Sample

Mean to Estimate Population Parameters
Both the sample proportion and the
sample mean are used to estimate
population parameters.
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Presented by;
Seveses Sanny Boy
Tañeca Janine Mariz
Adre Jefferson
Aban Nikko Angelo
Arellano Shannah Philline
Parcero Angeline
Paglicawan Terrence Joshua
Soriano Hannah Mae