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Open Economy_EC 227
Open Economy_EC 227
C C d C f superscripts:
d = spending on
I Id If domestic goods
f = spending on
G G d G f foreign goods
EX = exports =
foreign spending on domestic goods
IM = imports = C f + I f + G f
= spending on foreign goods
C I G EX (C f I f G f )
C I G EX IM
C I G NX
Y = C + I + G + NX
or, NX = Y – (C + I + G )
domestic
spending
net exports
output
NX
NX ==YY –– ((CC ++II ++GG))
implies
implies
NX
NX == ((YY ––CC ––GG))–– II
== SS –– II
trade
tradebalance
balance==net
netcapital
capitaloutflows
outflows
production function: Y Y F (K , L )
consumption function: C C (Y T )
investment function: I I (r )
exogenous policy variables: G G , T T
r S Y C (Y T ) G
S S, I
imply rr == r*
aa && bb imply r*
implies r*
cc implies r* isis exogenous
exogenous
I (r* ) S, I
I (rc ) S, I
S
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 14
But in a small open economy…
the exogenous r
S
world interest
rate determines
investment… NX
…and the r*
difference
between saving rc
and investment I (r )
determines net
capital outflows
I1 S, I
and net exports
NX1
Results:
I 0
NX S 0 I (r )
I1 S, I
Results:
I 0 I (r )
NX I 0
S, I
I (r )
2
*
I (r1* )
r*
EXERCISE:
Use the model to NX1
determine the impact
of an increase in
investment demand I (r )1
on NX, S, I, and net
capital outflow. I1 S, I
Neither S nor I S 1 I (r *)
depend on ε, ε
so the net
capital outflow
curve is vertical.
ε1
ε adjusts to
equate NX NX(ε )
with net capital
outflow, S - I. NX
NX 1
supply: ε1
The net capital
outflow (S - I ) NX(ε )
is the supply of
dollars to be NX
NX 1
invested abroad.
An increase in r* S 1 I (r1 *)
reduces investment, ε S 1 I (r2 *)
increasing net
capital outflows and ε
1
the supply of dollars
in the foreign
exchange market… ε 2
NX(ε )
…causing the
real exchange NX
rate to fall and NX 1 NX 2
NX to rise.
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 32
3. An increase in investment demand
An increase in S1 I 2
investment ε S1 I 1
reduces net
capital outflows
ε2
and the supply
of dollars in the
foreign exchange ε1
market…
NX(ε )
…causing the
NX
real exchange NX 2 NX 1
rate to rise and
NX to fall.
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 33
4. Trade policy to restrict imports
Results:
ε S I
ε > 0
(demand
increase) ε2
NX = 0
(supply fixed) ε1
IM < 0 NX (ε )2
(policy)
EX < 0 NX (ε )1
(rise in ε ) NX
NX1
P*
e ε
P
M
L (r * , Y )
NX (ε ) S I (r *) P
e ε P * P ε
*
e ε P *
P ε
For a given value of ε,
the growth rate of e equals the difference
between foreign and domestic inflation rates.
NX
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 41
Does PPP hold in the real world?
No, for two reasons:
1. International arbitrage not possible.
nontraded goods
transportation costs
2. Goods of different countries not perfect
substitutes.
Nonetheless, PPP is a useful theory:
• It’s simple & intuitive
• In the real world, nominal exchange rates
have a tendency toward their PPP values over
the long run.