Department of Civil Engineering

DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF VARIOUS CLIMATIC STATIONS

IN TELANGANA

Supervisor: Coordinator: Presented by:

Sri.Ch.Sridhar Smt.M.Sowjanya Lakshmi Anuja --B21CE143L
Assistant Professor Assistant Professor Sandhya--B20CE070
Christy Angel—B20CE076
Ishwarya—B20CE095
Shruthi—B20CE109
CONTENTS:
• Introduction
• Literature review
• Problem Statement
• Project Objectives
• Methodology
• Eto Calculator
• Multi Layer Perceptron
• DrinC and R-Studio softwares
• Results
• Conclusion
• References
• Time scale of work
 INTRODUCTION
• Drought is the period of dry weather which causes hydrological
imbalance in the affected area which is caused due to deficiency
in precipitation and also rise in level of evapotranspiration,
Drought can be estimated using various indices like Standard
Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index and Standard
Precipitation Index .Trend in Drought can be shown using
various characteristics like magnitude, frequency and type of
occurrence.
TYPES OF DROUGHT
Multi Layer Perceptron ( MLP ) :

• Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) is a type of Artificial neural network (ANN)

techniques, which can provide a model to predict and investigate the process
without having a complete understanding of it.
• Advantages ;
 It can estimate reference evapotranspiration accurately with minimum
climate data
 Inexpensive
 Independent of specific climatic condition
 Ignored physical relations
 LITERATURE REVIEW
TITLE
AUTHORS & YEAR SUMMARY

T.Thomas Comprehensive A study has evaluated meteorological and hydrological

R.K.Jaiswal evaluation of the drought characteristics in the Bearma basin in the
P.C.Nayak changing drought Bundelkhand region of Central India.. The study found
N.C.Ghosh characteristics in that drought severity has increased significantly, with
Bundelkhand region the maximum intensity observed in Rehli.
Recived : 21 November of central India
2013
Accepted : 1 December
2014
Amiya Basak, Drought Forecasting This study evaluated the Prophet model's ability to
A.T.M.Sakiur using the prophet forecast meteorological drought using the standardized
Rahman,Jayanta model in a semi- precipitation index (SPI) for 38 meteorological stations in
Das,Takahiro Hosono armid climate region western India. The results showed that the Prophet
Received:16 February 2021 of western India model had acceptable accuracy for drought forecasting,
Accepted: 13 April 2022 while SVR and MLR models showed greater error in
short-term forecasting.
 AUTHORS & YEAR TITLE SUMMARY

Shamsuddin Shaid Estimating the Standardized The study evaluates machine learning
30 May 2022 Precipitation models like AR, RSS, and M5P tree for
Evapotranspiration Index accurately predicting precipitation
Using Data evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in
northern Bangladesh. The M5P model
outperforms other models, with the
lowest absolute error.

Y. Hong, and J. J. Water balance-based actual The study develops a monthly

Gourley evapotranspiration evapotranspiration product using
21 AUG 2015 reconstruction from ground ground and satellite observations of
precipitation, runoff, and water storage
change in the US, providing crucial
hydro-meteorological data
 AUTHORS & YEAR TITLE SUMMARY

Santiago begueria, Sergio Standardized Precipitation
M.vicente- Serranco Evapotranspiration Index :
parameter fitting,
21 December 2013 evapotranspiration models, tools,
datasets and drought monitoring
In this paper the calculation of SPEI is
described . SPEI uses “climatic water balance”
i.e.,(P-ETο) . The climate water balance is
calculated at various timescales to obtain the
actual SPEI which is used for drought
assessment

Prabir Kumar Das, Trends and behaviour of In this journal the SPEI data was used to detect
Dibyendu Dutta, meteorological drought over Indian the trend in meterological drought. The SPEI
J.R.Sharma and region using standardized data was converted into drought duration,
V.k.Dadhwal precipitation Evapotranspiration magnitude and type of occurance
index
2015
 PROBLEM STATEMENT
• Due to variation in Global climate the precipitation pattern is
changing vigorously which leads to unfavourable conditions to all
the ecosystems hence ,drought trends analysis is extremely
important as it is related with food security and management of
scarce water resources
 PROJECT OBJECTIVES
• Estimate the evapotranspiration for the selected stations
• Estimate Standard Precipitation Index(SPI)
• Classify the stations as per the SPI values
• Develop Multi Layer Perceptron(MLP) model for estimating
evapotranspiration using MATLAB an AI.
• Determine the drought characteristics like severerity and frequency
 METHODOLOGY

DrinC Drought
Cropwat
Software Characteristics

Data from
NASA Power

Multi Layer Artificial

Perceptron Neural
(MLP) Network
 STATION SELECTION
ADILABAD

SIDDIPET

VICARABAD

KOTHAGUDEM

WANAPARTHY
ETo CALCULATOR

Badradri
Kothagudem ETo
 Artificial Neural Network(ANN)
• Ability to learn from experience
• It has to be trained by giving some data
• It has nodes or neurons organized as layers
(Input ,Hidden and output layers)
• Feed-Forward and Back-Propagation
 Principal Component Analysis (PCA)
Factor Influence Loading

Minimum -0.0829 Minor Negative

Temperature
Maximum 0.4446 Significant
Temperature Positive
Relative -0.4980 High Negative
Humidity
Wind Speed -0.1619 Minor Negative

Sunshine Hours 0.5290 High Positive

Solar Radiation 0.4913 High Positive

Top Climatic Factors identified by PCA are Sunshine hours, Solar Radiation and Maximum Temperature
Multi Layer Perceptron(MLP)
Overall Regression value: 0.98, which indicates that the predicted and actual
evapotranspiration values have strong correlation.

MLP input,output
 MLP Code

MLP output
DrinC Software
• DrinC Software(Drought Indices
Calculator)
• Assessing drought Indices like
Standard Precipitation Index
Index, Evapotranspiration
etc., by using maximum
minimum temperature and
Precipitation as input files
• DrinC software is especially
used for estimation of
agricultural , Meterological and
hydrological drought

Badradri
Kothagudem SPI
 R STUDIO
• R studio is used in data analysis to import ,access , transform ,explore , plot and
for model data and for machine learning to make predictions on data.
• User-friendly interface and powerful features make it an invaluable tool for
beginner.
• Used in fields including data science, finance, academia.
• Available for Windows, Macintosh, and Linux.
• Publication-quality graphs.
• Availability of advanced statistical methods and algorithms published as user-
created pakages.
 RESULTS
Siddipet SPI-9

Type of drought occurrence frequency Frequency of Drought

normal 266.00 0.71
normal
moderately dry 23.00 0.06 4%
12%
modrately dry
3%
severely dry 16.00 0.04 4% severely dry
6%
extremely dry 13.00 0.03 extremely dry
71%
moderately wet
moderately wet 46.00 0.12
very wet
very wet 14.00 0.04 extremely wet

extremely wet 0.00 0.00

Adilabad SPI-9
Frequency of drought
Type of drought occurrence frequency
Normal 252.00 0.67 8% 2% Normal
6%
Moderately dry 42.00 0.11 2% Moderately dry
5%
Severely dry
Severely dry 17.00 0.05 11%
Extremely dry
67%
Extremely dry 7.00 0.02 Moderatrely wet
Moderatrely wet 22.00 0.06 very wet
Extremely wet
very wet 30.00 0.08
Extremely wet 6.00 0.02
Wanaparthy SPI-9
Type of Drought occurrence frequency
Frequency of Drought
normal 250.00 0.66
4%3% normal
modrately dry 23.00 0.06 11% modrately dry
3% severely dry
severely dry 26.00 0.07 7% extremely dry
6% moderately wet
66%
extremely dry 12.00 0.03 very wet
extremely wet
moderately wet 40.00 0.11

very wet 14.00 0.04

extremely wet 11.00 0.03

Vicarabad SPI-9
Frequency of Drought
Type of Drought Occurrence frequency
normal
normal 251.00 0.67 0%
4%
14% moderately dry
moderately dry 24.00 0.06 severely dry
4% extremely dry
4%
severely dry 16.00 0.04 6%
moderately wet
67% very wet
extremely dry 14.00 0.04 extreme wet

moderately wet 54.00 0.14

very wet 16.00 0.04
extreme wet 1.00 0.00
 Badradri SPI-9

Frequency of Drought
Type of Drought occurrence frequency

normal 268.00 0.71 1%

4%
10% normal
moderately dry
moderately dry 21.00 0.06 5%
severely dry
4%
6% extremely dry
severely dry 15.00 0.04 moderately wet
71% very wet
extremely dry 18.00 0.05 extremely wet

moderately wet 38.00 0.10

very wet 14.00 0.04

extremely wet 2.00 0.01

 Comparison
Badradri SPI-9(DrinC ) of SPI values from DrinC and R Studio
Frequency of Drought
Type of Drought occurrence frequency
normal 268.00 0.71 1%
4% normal
10%
moderately dry
moderately dry 21.00 0.06 5%
4% severely dry
6% extremely dry
severely dry 15.00 0.04 moderately wet
71% very wet
extremely dry 18.00 0.05 extremely wet
moderately wet 38.00 0.10
very wet 14.00 0.04
extremely wet 2.00 0.01

Badradri SPI-9 (R Studio)

Frequency of Drought
Type of drought Occurrence frequency
normal
normal 260 0.68 5%0% moderately drought
14% very dry
moderately drought 23 0.06 severely dry
2%
5% extremely dry
severely dry 19 0.05 6% moderately wet
68% very wet
extremely dry 8 0.02
extremely wet
moderately wet 54 0.14
very wet 19 0.05
extremely wet 1 0
 Reconnaissance Drought Index

•Severity of drought in Adilabad: 0.53 sub-humid

•Severity of drought in siddipet: 0.40 semi arid

•Severity of drought in badradri: 0.48 semi arid

•Severity of drought in vicarabad : 0.40 semiarid

•Severity of drought in wanaparthy : 0.44 semi-arid

 CONCLUSION
 Evapotranspiration values is increasing yearly which indicates most of the water is converting
as vapour due to increased temperature

•The main prevailing factors for calculation of Evapotranspiration values are temperature and
solar radiation

•The Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index values are almost equal to the Standard
Precipitation Index values

• Among the selected stations Wanaparthy is identified as most drought prone station

•Among the selected years i.e., from 1990 to 2021, 2012 is extreme drought prone year for every
selected station.

•According to Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) the severity of drought is less in Adilabad
which is in sub-humid condition(0.56) compared to other stations
 REFERENCES
• S Poornima, M Pushpalatha, RB Jana, LA Patti Water, 2023-mdpi.com
• RC Gautam, RS Bana - Indian Journal of Agronomy, 2014 - krishi.icar.gov.in
• A Elbeltagi, F AlThobiani, M Kamruzzaman, S Shaid, DK Roy, L Deb, MM
Islam, PK Kundu,Water resources management, 2022-mdpi.com
• Z Wan, K Zhang, X Xue, Z Hong, Y Hong, JJ Gourley,Water Resources
Research, 2015-Wiley Online Library
• SM Vicente-Serrano, DG Miralles… - Journal of climatology, 2018 -
journals.ametsoc.or
• Läderach, A Martinez-Valle, Schroth, N Castro - Climatic change, 2013 –
Springe
• T Thomas, RK Jaiswal, PC Nayak, NC Ghosh,Meteorology and Atmospheric
Physics, 2015-Springe
 Time Scale of Work (Phase -1)
DURATION CONTRIBUTION OF WORK STATUS

24-07-23 to 31-07-23 Selection of title Completed

01-08-23 to 15-08-23 Literature review Completed

16-08-23 to 25--08-23 Selection of climatic stations Completed

26-08-23 to 30-08-23 Collection of Precipitation and Temperature data Completed

03-09-23 to 17-09-23 Estimation of Evapotranspiration(ETo) Completed

18-09-23 to 18-10-23 Estimation of Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) Completed

19-10-23 to 15-11-23 Classification of stations according to Standard Completed
Precipitation Values (SPI)
 Time Scale of Work (Phase 2)
DURATION CONTRIBUTION OF WORK STATUS
18-12-23 to 26-12-23 Calculation of Drought Parameters(DrinC) Completed

26-12-23 to 09-01-24 Learning R-Studio Completed

09-01-24 to 19-01-24 Calculation of Standard Precipitation Index using R- Completed

Studio and comparison of values
24-01-24 to 05-02-24 Learning Artificial Neural Network Basics Completed
05-02-24 to 15-02-24 Calculation of Evapotranspiration using Cropwat Completed
Software

15-02-24 to 25-02-24 Principal Component Analysis (PCA) Completed

26-02-24 to 14-03-24 Training and Validation of Neural Network and Multi Completed
Layer Perception (MLP)

02-03-24 to 19-03-24 Calculation of Standard Precipitation Index from Completed

predicted Evapotranspiration values and finding of
drought characteristics
THANK YOU!