Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1-温铁军-主权外部性-币缘战略
1-温铁军-主权外部性-币缘战略
Sovereignty Externalities
& Currency Strategy :
The Critical Issues of
Development Trap
温铁军
Prof. Wen Tiejun
wentj@ruc.edu.cn
中国人民大学 / 西南大学
(RUC)People’s University of China
(SWU) South West University of China
重庆 Chongqing , 12.2012
发达国家与发展中国家经济关系
Double Supply from South to the North: The Strategic Relationship
between Developed/Developing Countries
资源环境赤字 / 不可持续
Unsustainable growth with natural
外汇再投资 resources & environment deficits
资本项目顺差 Foreign Reserve
符号经济
intangible symbolic
Capital Account reinvestment
Surplus
Economy
金融服务 实质经济
Financial Service
转轨 Physical Economy
资本市场 Transition
Capital Market 自由贸易 发展中国家
Free Trade Developing
发达国家 Country
Developed
Country 经常项目逆差 一般商品与原材料出口
Current Account Manufacture/Nature
deficit
resources export 低价劳动力 / 失业,社会动乱
Low income labor/unemployment
aroused social conflict
去意识形态看中国—世界最大小有产者 + 最大中产阶级?
Centenary Reflection of De-ideology
China: World Largest Small Property Holders + the Largest Middle Class?
右下两幅图片引自环保部污控司
2nd Capital pool: Rural Infrastructure investment for GDP growth
第二资产池:城镇化基础设施投入对 GDP 和维持稳定的潜在贡献
城镇化 vs 城市化
Infrastructure investment
资料来源: http://buttonwood.economist.com/content/gdc
。
Smart Power/ Money triangle
strategy 巧实力 / 美元币权之币缘战
略
增发货币扩张资本市场流动性,同时向
能源和粮食转嫁通胀
数据来源: Wind 资讯、
数据来源: Wind Bloomberg 、农业银行战略规划部
资讯、 Bloomberg 、农业银行战略规划部
货币 money
能源 energy 粮食
grain
Currency Strategy Diagram 币缘战略图示
Staple Foods
US dollar
US dollar
Added Value
通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业
塑料制品业
Recycling industry transit into
China & India from the West Eco-institutional Cost
in South Countries
Ecosystem decline in
developing countries
全球生态环境灾难和粮
食危机 global crisis of
environment & food
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