国际贸易分析模型(GTAP)概论

国际贸易综合模拟实验
国际贸易分析模型 (GTAP) 概论
崔琦副教授
中国石油大学（华东）
经济与管理学院
What are CGE models?
• CGE models are large numerical models which combine

economic theory with real economic data in order to
derive computationally the impacts of policies or shocks
in the economy.
• CGE models fit economic data to a set of equations which

aim to capture the structure of the economy and
behavioral response of agents (firms, households,
government). This provides a framework to simulate
policy changes and trace the impact on key economic
variables, including income and expenditure flows.
What-if questions
What if productivity in agriculture increased 1%?
What if foreign demand for exports increased 5%?
What if consumer tastes shifted towards imported food?
What if CO2 emissions were taxed?
What if water became scarce?
A great number of exogenous variables (tax rates, endowments,

technical coefficients).
Comparative static models: Results show effect of policy shocks
only, in terms of changes from initial equilibrium
3
How does CGE modelling work?
• The economic impact of the policy or economic shock being

modelled is estimated by comparing the economy before and
after the shock, as illustrated in the diagram below.
• The pre-policy baseline is generated by fitting the model
equations and the behavioral parameters to the base year data.
In general, this will mean that the base year to which the shock
is applied will reflect the current structure of the economy.
• The baseline assumes that the economy starts from a stable or
equilibrium position i.e. markets clear, although some models,
relax some of these assumptions, for example by allowing for
unemployment.
How does CGE modelling work?

• When a policy change or economic shock is introduced, the
economy converges to a new equilibrium, governed by the
economic relationships as specified in the system of
equations.
• The model derives a solution by finding a new set of prices
and allocation of goods and factors such that the economy is
in an equilibrium again.
• Some CGE models are able to trace the path of adjustment
to the new steady-state, whereas static ones will show long-
run changes only. Modelling the adjustment path provides a
much richer understanding of the evolution of the economy
in response to a given shock or policy.
Comparative-static interpretation of results
Employment
Change
years
0 T
Results refer to changes at some future point in time.
6
Why are CGE models used?
• CGE models take into account the inter-dependencies between

different sectors, agents and markets in the economy. CGE
analysis can therefore shed light on the wider economic impact
of policies and sometimes reveal their indirect or unintended
effects.
• Since CGE models are grounded in economic theory, results
can be explained using economic intuition, with the advantage
that the economic impact can also be quantified using real
data.
• CGE models capture both the economy's supply and demand
side and therefore allow for an adjustment in both quantities
and prices following a policy shock.
• CGE models capture both the economy's supply and

demand side and therefore allow for an adjustment in
both quantities and prices following a policy shock.
• Their main strength lies in their flexibility, as they can be
adapted to simulate a wide range of policies and shocks.
• CGE models are widely employed by governments,
international and research organizations, academics and
private sector consultancies. The World Bank, OECD,
IMF, HMRC, PWC have all made use of CGE
frameworks in the past.
CGE 模型具有非常广泛的研究领域，对
某些学科存在降维打击的优势
• 贸易 • 政治冲突
• 能源 • 税收政策
• 资源 • 金融政策
• 环境 • 产业政策
• 气候变化 • 价格政策
• 农业 • 财政政策
• 劳动 • 自然灾害
• 贫困 • 疫情
• 交通运输 • FEW Nexus
•相比其他经济学研究方法， CGE 模型
的建模者在找工作上更具有优势：
• 高校
• 事业单位
• 银行
• 企业
How does CGE differ from other modelling
approaches?
• In contrast to partial equilibrium models, which focus on one
section of the economy only, CGE models capture the entire
economy and take into account the interactions and knock-on
effects between its different segments.
• Unlike input-output models, which capture only the demand side
and assume there are no capacity constraints, CGE models
incorporate the supply side and hence allow for price movements.
• Compared to macro-econometric forecasting models, CGE models
have a stronger foundation in economic theory. Macro-econometric
forecasting models tend to be more data-driven, combining time
series data with economic theory and often omit the detailed
industrial data provided in CGE models.
How does CGE differ from other modelling
approaches?
• Whilst sharing many features with CGE models, Dynamic Stochastic
General Equilibrium models (DSGE) aim to capture business cycle
fluctuations and thus have a stronger focus on the shorter-term
impacts. Unlike many CGE models, these types of models are less
disaggregated and allow for random variation to account for
uncertainty.
CGE 模型学派 : 美国 Vs 澳大利亚
澳大利亚学派的 CGE 模型
• 国外：澳大利亚维多利亚大学 COPs 中心，美国普渡大学
GTAP 中心
• 国内：国家信息中心、湖南大学、对外经贸大学、中科院战
略院、北京大学现代农学院
• 全球多区域模型 -GTAP 模型（ GDYN 、 GTAP-E ）

• 国家模型 -ORANI 模型（ ORAIN-G 、 Chinagem ）
• 多区域模型 -TERM 模型（ TERM 、 Sino-Term ）
• 部门均衡模型，农业（ CAPSiM ）
• 软件：基于 Fortran 语言开发的 GEMPACK 软件

与美国学派 CGE 模型的对比

澳大利亚学派美国学派
软件 GEMPACK GAMS
方程系统线性非线性
数据投入产出表 SAM 表
开放性付费免费
运算速度快慢
编程难度高低
全球贸易均衡模型简介
• GTAP 全球贸易均衡模型 (Global Trade Analysis
Model) ，由美国普渡大学于 1990 年代初开发
• 基于自主贡献的合作网络，各国投入产出表和多边
贸易数据
• 为什么要用 GTAP ？ GTAP 能做哪些事情？
• 理论优点：线性化方程系统，求解速度快；模型
规范标准，扩展容易；数据库标准化、详细；具有
强大的学术网络。
• 适用领域：国际贸易、能源经济、气候变化评估、
灾害评估、重大工程评估、农业经济、国际政治经
济
GTAP 简介
• GTAP 全球贸易分析模型（ Global Trade Analysis Model ）
• 基于自主贡献的合作网络，各国投入产出表和多边贸易数据
• V7 数据库， 57 个部门， 113 个国家地区。基期： 2004 年
• 为什么要用 GTAP ？ GTAP 能做哪些事情？
• 线性化方程系统，求解速度快；模型规范标准，扩展容易；
数据库权威性；具有强大的学术网络。
• 国际贸易问题、能源经济模型、气候变化评估、灾害评估、
农业经济问题
GTAP V11 数据
GTAP V11 数据
GTAP V11 数据
14 个农业生
产部门
4 个采掘业
部门
GTAP V11 数据
13 个轻工业
部门
4 个石油化
工部门
GTAP V11 数据
10 个制造业
部门
4 个公共事
业部门
GTAP V11 数据
16 个服务业
部门
GTAP 模型的理论框架
Regional
Household
PRIVEXP GOVEXP
Taxes Taxes
SAVE
Private
Savings Government
Household VOA
Taxes
Endw
NETINV
VDPA VDGA
Producer
VDFA
23
Regional Household and Components of Final Demand
Regional
Household Regional household
receives all income
generated and spends
that income according
to a Cobb-Doglass
utility function
24
Regional
Household Private household
PRIVEXP expenditure
Private
Household
25
Regional
Household Government
PRIVEXP GOVEXP household
expenditure
Private
Government
Household
26
Regional
Household
Standard closure:
PRIVEXP GOVEXP constant shares of
regional income
SAVE
Private
Savings Government
Household
27
One Region Closed Economy
Regional
Household Intermediate
PRIVEXP GOVEXP demand by firms
SAVE
Private
Savings Government
Household
Producer
28
One Region Closed Economy VOA
Regional
Household
Value of output at
PRIVEXP GOVEXP agent prices
SAVE
Private
Savings Government
Household VOA
Endw
Producer
29
VDPA
Regional
Household Value of domestic
PRIVEXP GOVEXP
private household
purchases at agent
SAVE prices, CDE function
Private
Savings Government
Household VOA CDE: Constant
Endw
difference elasticity
utility model
VDPA
Producer
30
VDGA
Regional
Household Value of domestic
PRIVEXP GOVEXP
government
purchases at agent
SAVE prices, C-D function
Private
Savings Government
Household VOA
Endw
VDPA VDGA
Producer
31
NETINV
Regional
Household
Investment is
PRIVEXP GOVEXP savings-driven
SAVE Static model:
investment do not
Private affect capacity but
Savings Government
Household VOA do affect total
Endw
activity
NETINV
VDPA VDGA
Producer
32
VDFA
Regional
Household
Value of domestic
PRIVEXP GOVEXP
firms purchases at
SAVE
agent prices
Zero profit
Private
Household
Savings
VOA
Government Constant returns to
Endw scale
NETINV
VDPA VDGA
Producer
VDFA
33
Taxes
Regional
Household All taxes accrue to
PRIVEXP GOVEXP
household
Taxes
Income = VOA +
SAVE
taxes - subsidies
Private
Savings Government
Household VOA
Endw
NETINV
VDPA VDGA
Producer
VDFA
34
Taxes
Regional
PRIVEXP GOVEXP
household
Taxes Taxes
Income = VOA +
SAVE
taxes - subsidies
Private
Savings Government
Household VOA
Endw
NETINV
VDPA VDGA
Producer
VDFA
35
Taxes
Regional
PRIVEXP GOVEXP
household
Taxes Taxes
Income = VOA +
SAVE
taxes - subsidies
Private
Savings Government
Household VOA
Taxes
Endw
NETINV
VDPA VDGA
Producer
VDFA
36
考虑全球贸易后， GTAP 模型的理论架构
生产模块 The Production Tree
Final product (qo)

ESUBT
Value added (qva) Intermediates (qf)

ESUBVA
Land Labor Capital

(qfe)
38
Assumptions: Separability
• Assume separable, constant returns to scale production

function
• Separability, e.g. of primary factors from intermediate inputs
means that:
• optimal mix of land, labor,and capital is invariant to price of
intermediates
• elasticity of substitution between any primary factor and
intermediates is the same
• Restrictive for some purposes (energy-labor substitution is
not equal to energy-capital substitution), this can be relaxed
if full matrix of substitution is known.
39
Value-added Nest: CES
• Production function p
  p 1

QVAp     e, p .QFEe, p   p 
 p 1
 e 
• Derived demand functions
 p
 PFEe, p 
QFEe , p  QVAp .SVAe , p . 
 PVA 
 p 
• The coefficient SVA is the cost share and PVA is the price index
1


PVA p    SVAe, p .PFEe , p  p 


1 p
1
 e 
40
Linearising the CES: primary factors
• Equation VADEMAND
• this equation determines demand for primary factor composite by sector
p  S1 p1  S 2 p2   Si pi
i
qva ( j )  qo( j )  ESUBT ( j ). pva ( j )  ps ( j ) 

j  PROD _ COMM
41
Linearising the CES: Intermediates
• Equation INTDEMAND
• This equation determines demand for intermediate inputs by the sector
qf(i ,j )  qo(j )  ESUBT(j ).pf(i ,j )  ps(j )

i  TRAD _ COMM ,j  PROD _ COMM
42
Technological Change Variables
• ao(p) output augmenting variable

• afe(e,p) primary factor augmenting variable
• af(t,p) composite intermediate commodity augmenting variable
• ava(p) value-added augmented variable
Note: p - produced commodities, t - traded

commodities, e - endowment commodities
43
Supply of Sluggish Endowments
• CET functional form

 ETRAE
 PMESes , p 
QOESes , p  QOes .REVSHRes , p . 
 PM es 
• using the price index, we obtain
PM es  REVSHRMes , p .PMES 
1
1 ETRAE 1 ETRAE
es , p
44
需求模块
Tree Structure of Final Demand

1
Per Capita Utility
Cobb-Douglas Function,  = 0
Private Savings Government

Expenditure QSAVE/POP Expenditures
UP UG/POP
45
Tree Structure of Final Demand
Per Capita Utility
Cobb-Douglas Function,  = 0
1
Private Savings Government

Expenditure QSAVE/POP Expenditures
UP UG/POP
CDE Function Cobb-Douglas Function,  = 01
qp1 qp2 ... qpn Individual Commodities qg1 qg2 ... qgn
46
Disposition of Regional Income (1)
B
max U  U GBG U Pop U SBs
s.t. Y  P.U
Cobb-Douglas
YG  PGU G YP  PPU P YS  PSU S
Yi  i1 Bi

Y   j 1 B j
j
where,
B j is the Cobb Douglas preference parameter (i  P, G, S)
 i is the elasticity of expenditure with respect to utility U i
  1 for homothetic sub - utility functions U G and U S
47
Disposition of Regional Income (2)
y  pop  p  u
Cobb-Douglas
yG  y  S P P yS  y  S P P
yP  y  (1  S P ) P
where,
 is the utility of expenditure with respect to U
 P is the percentage change in  P
 P   S Ei ( p pi  q pi  x p )
i
SiP Ei
S Ei 
 S Pj E j
j
Sip is the expenditure share on private consumptio n

Ei is the CDE expansion parameter 48
Government Consumption Behavior
yg  pop  pgov  ug
Cobb-Douglas
qg (1) ... qg (i ) ... qg (n)
qg i  pop  ug  ( pgi  pgov)

pgov   SHRGOVj pg j
j
Where: i is TRAD_COMM
49
Private Consumption Behavior
u
Cobb-Douglas
ug up qsave
CDE function
qp (1) ... qp (i ) ... qp (n)
Use the generic demand equation:

qpi   EPij pp j  EYi ( yp  pop )  pop
j
Where: i and j are TRAD_COMM

50
Private Consumption Behavior
• The formulae for calibrating EP and EY vary with

the form chosen for private consumption preferences
• The demand elasticities (EP and EY ) vary as a
function of the expenditure shares and the
preference parameters of the CDE function
51
Constant Difference Elasticity
• The constrained optimizing behavior for private

consumption is represented by applying a CDE
function which is non-homothetic
• Hence, the computation of utility of private
household consumption must now take the rate of
population growth explicitly into account
52
Constant Difference Elasticity (2)
• Non-homothetic CES and Cobb-Douglas are all

special cases of the CDE which can be attained by
setting parameters equal to particular values
• The CDE function lies between the CES function
and the fully flexible forms. It is easily calibrated
with existing data on income and own price
elasticities
53
进出口模块
• CES-Armington Assumption
• Between domestic and import
qf(i ,j )  qo(j )  ESUBT(j ).pf(i ,j )  ps(j )

i  TRAD _ COMM ,j  PROD _ COMM
• Between imports from different regions
• CES assumption
What is a Closure?
• The closure is the classification of the variables in

the model as either endogenous or exogenous
variables
• Endogenous variables: values are determined
(solved for) by the model
• Exogenous variables: predetermined outside the
model. Therefore, these variables may be shocked.
55
A Valid Closure
• The number of endogenous variables has to

equal the number of equations
• This is a necessary but not a sufficient
condition: Equations must be independent
• Closure should make economic sense
56
Standard OneGTAP Closure
Exogenous
pop - population
psave - numeraire
profitslack incomeslack endwslack - slack variables
cgdslack tradslack - slack variables
ao af afe ava - technical change
dpfpriv dpfgov dpfsave - preferences
to tfe tf tg tp - policy variables
qo(ENDW_COMM); - endowments
Rest endogenous;
57
Walras’ Law
• Walras’ Law tells us that when:

• all (non-savings) markets are in equilibrium,
• all firms earn zero profits, and
• regional households are on their budget constraint,
• Then global investment must equal global savings
• The model can only determine relative prices: price
levels are relative to the numeraire (psave, the price
of the capital goods)
58
Savings - Investment balance
• The savings-investment balance holds in the pre-simulation

equilibrium
• Walras_sup = NETINV
• Walras_dem = SAVE = GLOBINV
• Linearized form
• walras_sup = walras_dem +walraslack
• In a GE closure, walraslack is endogenous and psave is

exogenous; check that
walraslack = 0 implies that S = I.
59
Equilibrium Conditions
• Market clearing conditions

• tradable commodities - tradslack
• mobile endowment commodities - endwslack
• sluggish endowment commodities - endwslack
• Zero pure profit condition - profitslack
• Income-expenditure balance - incomeslack
• Saving-investment balance - walraslack
60
GTAP 求解软件
RunGTAP
结果输出
• GDP qgdp
• Export and import qxw qiw
• Welfare EV
• Industrial output qo
• Prices pm
• Emissions
GTAP-E 生产结构：资本能源嵌套，资本 - 能源、能
源之间采用 CES 函数
Output Output
Value Added Intermediate goods

Value Added Intermediate goods (non-energy)
(energy, non-energy)
Skilled Unskilled Capital-Energy Land Nat.

Lab. Lab. Resources
Capital Energy
Skilled Unskilled Capital Land Nat. Electricity Non-Electricity

Lab. Lab. Resources
Coal Non-Coal
Oil Gas Petroleum

GTAP GTAP-E prods
Burniaux and Truong (2002)

GTAP 的应用例子
• 气候变化对中国农业经济的影响
• 气候变化对中国农业经济的文献研究
• The impacts of climate change on China’s agriculture have been widely
studied in the literature through biophysical models (e. g., Li and Geng,
2013; Wang et al., 2014; Xiong et al., 2007; Tao et al., 2008; Xiong et al.
2009b; Piao et al., 2010).
• A major limitation of the biophysical models for assessing climate
change impact is that they tend to overestimate adverse impacts of
climate change on agriculture, as they fail to account for the underlying
buffering capability of economic system, which the later attains through
adjustments in production inputs and structure.
• Some global studies on climate change do explicitly cover China while
accounting for endogenous response of markets (Parry et al., 2004; Zhai
et al., 2009; Calzadilla et al., 2013; Nelson et al., 2014b; Zhou et al.,
2017).
• 气候变化对中国农业经济的文献研究
• International trade is also another important factor affecting China’s food
market but few studies have considered the role of trade while assessing
climate change impacts on China.
• There are several important global studies on the role of international
trade in climate change on agriculture. Later, Baldos and Hertel (2015)
explored the potential for a more freely functioning global trading system
to maintain improved food security in the long run.
• The overall purpose of this paper is to provide an updated and more
reliable evidence on the impacts of climate change on China’s
production, prices, trade and self-sufficiency of major crops, with
particular focus on the market and trade responses.
• 气候变化的预测
• 气候变化对中国农作物单产的影响系数
Wheat Rice Maize Soybean Cotton Rapeseed Peanut

Climate during growing season
Temperature -0.0675* 0.0431*** -0.0160 -0.0372 0.3366*** 0.0251 0.0469
Temperature squared 0.0012 -0.0014*** -0.0015 0.0005 -0.0074** -0.0020 -0.0001
Precipitation 0.0005** 0.0001** 0.0005*** 0.0014*** -0.0002 0.0012*** 0.0002
Precipitation squared -0.0000007*** -0.0000001*** -0.0000002*** -0.00000072*** 0.00000005 -0.0000007*** -0.0000001
Climate variation in growing season
Standard deviation -0.0254** 0.0061 -0.0569*** -0.0176 -0.0327 -0.0087 -0.0513*
of temperature
Standard deviation -0.0015** -0.0004*** -0.0011** -0.0019*** -0.0026*** -0.0019* -0.0011*
of precipitation
Note: Robust standard errors in parentheses, *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Source: Wang et al., 2016
• 气候变化下中国农作物单产的影响
• 气候变化下全球农作物单产的影响
• 地区与部门合并加总
• 模拟结果：气候变化对中国农作物产量的影响
• 模拟结果：气候变化对中国农作物产量的影响
• 模拟结果：气候变化对中国农产品价格的影响
• 模拟结果：气候变化对中国农产品净进口的影响
• 模拟结果：气候变化对中国农产品自给率的影响
欢迎大家交流探讨！
• 崔琦
• 博士、副教授
• 经济与管理学院
• 办公室：文理楼 533
• 电话： 18810775966
• QQ ： 520181619
• 邮箱： cuiqi@upc.edu.cn

国际贸易分析模型(GTAP)概论

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国际贸易综合模拟实验

• CGE models are large numerical models which combine

• CGE models fit economic data to a set of equations which

A great number of exogenous variables (tax rates, endowments,

• The economic impact of the policy or economic shock being

How does CGE modelling work?

• CGE models take into account the inter-dependencies between

• CGE models capture both the economy's supply and

• 全球多区域模型 -GTAP 模型（ GDYN 、 GTAP-E ）

• 软件：基于 Fortran 语言开发的 GEMPACK 软件

与美国学派 CGE 模型的对比

Final product (qo)

Value added (qva) Intermediates (qf)

Land Labor Capital

• Assume separable, constant returns to scale production

qva ( j )  qo( j )  ESUBT ( j ). pva ( j )  ps ( j ) 

qf(i ,j )  qo(j )  ESUBT(j ).pf(i ,j )  ps(j )

• ao(p) output augmenting variable

Note: p - produced commodities, t - traded

• CET functional form

Tree Structure of Final Demand

Private Savings Government

Private Savings Government

CDE Function Cobb-Douglas Function,  = 01

YG  PGU G YP  PPU P YS  PSU S

Sip is the expenditure share on private consumptio n

qg (1) ... qg (i ) ... qg (n)

qg i  pop  ug  ( pgi  pgov)

qp (1) ... qp (i ) ... qp (n)

Use the generic demand equation:

Where: i and j are TRAD_COMM

• The formulae for calibrating EP and EY vary with

• The constrained optimizing behavior for private

• Non-homothetic CES and Cobb-Douglas are all

• Between domestic and import

qf(i ,j )  qo(j )  ESUBT(j ).pf(i ,j )  ps(j )

• The closure is the classification of the variables in

• The number of endogenous variables has to

• Walras’ Law tells us that when:

• The savings-investment balance holds in the pre-simulation

• In a GE closure, walraslack is endogenous and psave is

• Market clearing conditions

• Export and import qxw qiw

Value Added Intermediate goods

Skilled Unskilled Capital-Energy Land Nat.

Skilled Unskilled Capital Land Nat. Electricity Non-Electricity

Oil Gas Petroleum

Burniaux and Truong (2002)

Wheat Rice Maize Soybean Cotton Rapeseed Peanut

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