Project Scheduling

using CPM & PERT

BITS Pilani M K Hamirwasia
Pilani Campus WILPD
 BITS Pilani
Pilani Campus

ET ZC423/PE ZC423-Merged
Essentials of Project Management

Lecture No. 05
BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
Exercise

2. You are creating a customer database for the Modesto

Nuts minor league baseball team. Draw a project
network given the information below. Complete the
forward and backward pass, compute activity slack, and
identify the critical path.
How long will this project take? How sensitive is
the network schedule? Calculate the free slack and total
slack for all noncritical activities.

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Exercise

ID Description Predecessor Time (days)

A Systems Design None 2
B Subsystem A Design A 1
C Subsystem B Design A 1
D Subsystem C Design A 1
E Program A B 2
F Program B C 2
G Program C D 2
H Subsystem A Test E 1
I Subsystem B Test F 1
J Subsystem C Test G 1
K Integration H, I, J 2
L Integration Test K 1

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BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
 Exercise

2 B 3 3 E 5 5 H 6
TE = 9 Days
0 SSAD 0 PRA 0 SSAT
2 1 3 3 2 5 5 1 6 3 Critical Paths

Very Sensitive
Network

0 A 2 2 C 3 3 F 5 5 I 6 6 K 8 8 L 9
0 SD 0 SSBD 0 PRB 0 SSBT 0 Intgrn 0 InTst
0 2 2 2 1 3 3 2 5 5 1 6 6 2 8 8 1 9

2 D 3 3 G 5 5 J 6
0 SSCD 0 PRC 0 SSCT No Free Slack
2 1 3 3 2 5 5 1 6
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Learning CPM Through
Exercise
3. J. Wold, Pr. Mgr. of Print Software, Inc., wants you to
prepare a project network; compute the early, late, and
slack activity times; determine the planned project
duration; and identify the Cr. Path. His assistant has
collected the following information for the Colour Printer
Drivers Software Project:

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CPM
ID Description
A External specs
B Review design features
C Document new features
D Write software
E Program and test
F Edit and publish notes
G Review manual
H Alpha site
I Print manual
J Beta site
K Manufacture
L Release and ship
Predecessor Time (days)
None 8
A 2
A 3
A 60
B 60
C 2
D 2
E, F 20
G 10
H, I 10
J 12
K 3
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BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
 CPM (A-O-N)
8 B 10 10 E 70
TE =
0 RDF 0 PnT 115Days
8 2 10 10 60 70
70 H 90
0 AS
70 20 90
A 8 8 C 11 11 F 13 90 J 100 100 K
ES 57 DNF 57 EnPN 0 BS 0 M
8 8 65 3 68 68 2 70 90 10 100 100 1

70 I 80
8 D 68 68 G 70 10 PM
10 WS 10 RM 80 10 90
18 60 78 78 2 80

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PROJECT NETWORK
PLANNING
Critical Path Method (CPM) – Project Crashing

Program/Project Evaluation and Review Technique

(PERT)

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BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
PERT
(PROGRAM EVALUATION & REVIEW TECHNIQUE)

• In 1958 the Special Office of the US Navy and the Booz,

Allen, and Hamilton consulting firm developed PERT to
schedule the more than 3,300 contracts of the Polaris
submarine project and to cover uncertainty of activity
time estimates.

• PERT is almost identical to the critical path method

(CPM) except it assumes each activity duration has a
range that follows a statistical distribution.

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Activity and Project
Frequency Distributions

Activity
Project

a m b TE

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Weighted Average Activity
Time (te)
a + 4m + b
te = -------------
6
te = weighted average activity time
a = optimistic activity time (1 chance in 100 of
completing the activity earlier under normal
conditions)
b = pessimistic activity time (1 chance in 100 of
completing the activity later under normal
conditions
m = most likely activity time

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Standard Deviation

σt =e ( b – a)
6

σ TE = √ ∑ (σ )² te

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BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
Probability of Completing
the Project in Time
Ts – TE
Z = --------------

√ ∑ ( σt ) ²
e

TE = Critical path duration

TS = Scheduled project duration
Z = probability (of meeting scheduled duration)
found in statistical Table A7.2

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Z Values and Probabilities

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A HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE
USING THE PERT TECHNIQUE

The activity times and variances are given in Table A7.1.

The project network is presented in Figure A7.2. This
figure shows the project network as AOA and AON. The
AON network is presented as a reminder that PERT can
use AON networks as well as AOA.
1. Compute the expected time for each activity.
2. Compute the variance for each activity.
3. Compute the expected project duration.
4. What is the probability of completing the project by
day 67? Within 60 days?

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PERT Example

Activity a m b te ((b-a)/6))^2
1-2 17 29 47 30 25
2-3 6 12 24 13 9
2-4 16 19 28 20 4
3-5 13 16 19 16 1
4-5 2 5 14 6 4
5-6 2 5 8 5 1

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BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
Z Values and Probabilities

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PERT Example

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Probability of completing
the project in 67 days
Ts – T E
Z = --------------

√ ∑ (σ te )²

67 – 64 +3
Z = ----------------- = -------- = + 0.50

√ 25 + 9 + 1 + 1 √ 36

P = 0.69 (69 percent chance of completing the

project on or before 67 time units)

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Probability of completing
the project in 60 days
Ts – T E
Z = --------------

√ ∑ (σ te )²

60 – 64 -4
Z = ----------------- = -------- = - 0.67

√ 25 + 9 + 1 + 1 √ 36

P = 0.26 (26 percent chance of completing the

project on or before 60 time units)

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Z Values and Probabilities

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 Exercise 1

Given the project information below, what is the probability

of completing the National Holiday Toy project in (i) 93
time units? (ii) in 88 time units?
Act Description Predecessor Optm. Most Pess. Act. Variance Critical
ID(i (a) likely (m) (b) Time {(b-a)/6}2
) (te)
1 Design Package None 6 12 24 13 9 Y
2 Design product 1 16 19 28 20 4 Y
3 Build package 1 4 7 10 7 1 N
4 Secure patent 2 21 30 39 30 9 Y
5 Build product 2 17 29 47 30 25 Y
6 Paint 3, 4,5 4 7 10 7 1 N, Y, Y
7 Test market 6 13 16 19 16 1 Y

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 Exercise 1 (A-O-A)

CP1: 0-1-2-4-6-7 (86)

CP2: 0-1-2-5-6-7 (86) 4 TE1 = 86
Weeks
30 7 TE2 = 86

13 20 30
7 16
0 1 2 5 6 7
7
7

3 TE3 = 43

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 A-O-N

Act Description Predecessor Optm. Most Pess. Act. Variance Critical

ID (a) likely (m) (b) Time {(b-a)/6}2
(te)
A Design Package None 6 12 24 13 9 Y
B Design product A 16 19 28 20 4 Y
C Build package A 4 7 10 7 1 N
D Secure patent B 21 30 39 30 9 Y
E Build product B 17 29 47 30 25 Y
F Paint C, D, E 4 7 10 7 1 N, Y, Y
G Test market F 13 16 19 16 1 Y

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Z Values and Probabilities

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 A-O-N
13 B 33 33 D 63
0 DPR 0 SP
13 20 33 33 30 63

0 A 13 33 E 63 63 F 70 70 G 86
0 DPC 0 BP 0 PT 0 TMKT
0 13 13 33 30 63 63 7 70
70 16 86

13 C 20
43 BP
56 7 63 CP1: A-B-D-F-G
CP2: A-B-E-F-G
TE = 86
Weeks
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Exercise 1

CP1: 0-1-2-4-6-7 (TE = 86) A-O-A

CP1: A-B-D-F-G (TE = 86) A-O-N

σ TE = √ ∑ (σ )²
te = √9+4+9+1+1 = √ 24
Z= TS – TE = 93 -86 = 1.428869
σTE √ 24
P = .92275 (92.28 percent)
Taking the scheduled completion time to be 88 weeks;
Z= 88 - 86 = 2 = 0.408248, P = 0.6579
√ 24 4.899 (65.79 percent)

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Exercise 1

CP2: 0-1-2-5-6-7 (TE = 86) A-O-A

CP2: A-B-E-F-G (TE = 86) A-O-N

σ TE = √ ∑ (σ )²
te = √9+4+25+1+1 = √ 40
Z= TS – TE = 93 -86 = 1.106797
σTE √ 40
P = .8645 (86.45 percent)
Taking the scheduled completion time to be 88 weeks;
Z= 88 - 86 = 2 = 0.316228 P = 0.6232
√ 40 6.3245 (62.32 percent)

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Solve Exercise 1 Using WIN QS

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Input the data

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Solve and Analyse – Solve
Critical Path

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Results – Perform
Probability Analysis

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Exercise 2

The expected times and variances for the project activities

are given below. What is the probability of completing the
project in 25 periods?

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Exercise 2

I Pilot Prodn None 6 3

2 Select channels of distrib. None 7 4
3 Develop mktg. program None 4 2
4 Test market 1 4 2
5 Patent 1 10 5
6 Full production 4 16 10
7 Ad promotion 3 3 2
8 Release 2, 5, 6, 7 2 1

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Z Values and Probabilities

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A-O-N

6 4 10 10 6 26
0 1 6 0 TM 0 FP
0 PP 6 4 10 10 16 26
0 6 6
6 5 16 26 8 28
10 Patent
0 Release
0 2 7 16 10 26
26 2 28
19 SCD
19 7 26

4 7 7
0 3 4 CP: 1-4-6-8
19 Ad Pr
19 DMP TE = 28
23 3 26
19 4 23

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A-O-N

CP: 1-4-6-8
σ TE = √ ∑ (σ )²
te = √3+2+10+1 = √ 16 = 4

Z= TS – TE = 25 - 28 = - 0.75
σ TE √16

P = 0.2275 (22.75 percent)

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Project Scheduling

Thank You!
M K Hamirwasia

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus