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GOLD FLUCTUATION AND IT8 IMPACT ON INDIAN

ECONOMY
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INTRODUCTION
Hiatory of goId
InternationaI monetary ayatem - goId or aiIver aa a
meana of exchange.
GoId ia one of the moat vaIuabIe economic
indicatora.
GoIda price eIaaticity ia negative.
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Riaing goId pricea can change deatiny of many unprofitabIe
minea and turn them into a very aucceaafuI buaineaa.
GoId ia a aafe inveatment.
GoId pricea have been determined more by Ianded coata
and by the rupee-doIIar exchange rate.
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Factora affecting goId price
fIuctuation
Cuzzency InIIatIon:
hen the auppIy of currency ia infIated, the price
of goId increaaea aa the per-unit vaIue of the
currency decIinea.
During timea of monetary contraction (i.e. when
currency ia aoaked up), the price of goId goea
down.
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CentzaI Banks:
CentraI banka can decide to aeII a portion of their reaervea
or buy more on the market Iimited to 400 tonnea.
CentraI banka infIuence the price of goId ia through Ioan
agreementa with the centraI banka of other nationa.
#BI now has goId zesezves ovez $5bn.
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Factozs The Cause An Inczease In
Denand:
Timea of poIiticaI unreat and war Ieada to monetary
expanaion.
Mining production can aIao pIay a roIe.
Large deficita aIao aupport high goId pricea.
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OB]ECTIVE
To review the fIuctuation in the goId pricea.
To review the factora that affecta the goId pricea.
To caIcuIate the Compound Growth Rate and then forecaat
for the year 2015.
To review whether internationaI review of goId reaerve
(foreign exchange reaerve) affecta the goId pricea or not.
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Data AnaIyaia- Growth Rate
?ears ? log y L L*L log y*L
199091 343132 3338010394 19 361 6722219749
199192 429763 3633229023 17 289 6176489338
199293 410366 3613171371 13 223 3419737037
199394 433187 3636277443 13 169 4733160676
199493 466724 3669060134 11 121 4033966147
199396 49376 3693271483 9 81 3323744333
199697 307071 3703068773 7 49 2393348141
199798 434707 3638196634 3 23 1819098317
199899 4268 3630224411 3 9 1089067323
199900 439336 3642816362 1 1 3642816362
200001 44736 363063713 1 1 363063713
200102 437912 3660782023 3 9 1098234607
200203 333236 3726919462 3 23 1863439731
200304 371893 37373163 7 49 263012141
200403 614338 3788348743 9 81 3409693868
200306 690036 3838884336 11 121 422277277
200607 924032 3963687011 13 169 3133393113
200708 999362 3999809737 13 223 3999714606
200809 1288974 4110244137 17 289 6987413067
200910 1373609 4197448433 19 361 797313206
LoLal 1231206 731176236 0 2660 340769021
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Growth rate chart
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Price of goId and goId reaervea
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AnaIyaia
colomo 1 colomo 2
Column 1
1
Column 2
0979736876 1
CO-RELATON
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SuMMA8? Cu1u1
oo 5tottn
MulLlple 8 0978931791
8 Square 0938307431
Ad[usLed 8 Square 0933834948
SLandard Lrror 6869434903
CbservaLlons 19
REGRESSON
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ANOVA Teat
AnCvA
df SS MS l Slgnlflcance l
8egresslon
1 1843910728 1843910728 3907467164 0006233
8esldual
17 8022199819 471894107
1oLal
18 1924132726
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CoefflclenLs
SLandard
Lrror
L SLaL value Lower 93 upper 93
Lower
930
upper 930
lnLercepL
2363103389 2381041979 9133626327 333093L08
181833333
7
290763784
2
181833333
7 2907637842
6828
0181333739 0009183331 1976731434 362316L13
016213818
3
020090929
6
016213818
3 0200909296
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ReaiduaI pIot
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#COMDATIO
Aa a goId trader, the market fIuctuationa in the rate of goId
aharea and pricea are aometimea difficuIt to keep up with,
aIthough it ia your buaineaa!
It aeema that thinga happen at the apeed of Iight and ita
eaaentiaI to be onIine and have acceaa to the rate of goId on a
minute-to-minute baaia!
You can aIao review anaIyaea of the rate of goId over aimiIar
time framea in paat yeara and theae are preaented in tabIe
and at-a-gIancegraph forma.
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COCL08IO
e have aeen that the pricea of goId were increaaing
from1990 to1997 and then from 1997 tiII 2002 the pricea of
goId were decreaaing and after 2002 the pricea of goId are
increaaing.
e have anaIyzed from compound growth rate that the pricea
of goId are increaaing by 2.99. e forecaat from the
exponentiaI method that the goId price wiII be 8994.975815
in the year 2015.
It makea aenae to buy at the Ioweat pricea and if you can
afford to atockpiIe your goId, you can then wait untiI the rate
of goId increaaea and make your profita.
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THANK YOU